Prediction on Beyer's prediction

[jjm323]

Who does everyone think Beyer will predict tonight on DRF?

Here is my prediction (on Beyer's prediction):

1. Sweetnorthernsaint
2. Brother Derek
3. Sinister Minister
4. Point Determined
http://finalturn.com/forum/Themes/sitra1-1RC2/images/brown/icons/modify_inline.gif

[cj]

Sinister Minister.

[blind squirrel]

Who does everyone think Beyer will predict tonight on DRF?

Here is my prediction (on Beyer's prediction):

1. Sweetnorthernsaint
2. Brother Derek
3. Sinister Minister
4. Point Determined
http://finalturn.com/forum/Themes/sitra1-1RC2/images/brown/icons/modify_inline.gif


SINISTER:the way,the truth,the light!....he's gonna go with the top
fig,he got burned by WAR EMBLEM and CHARISMATIC.

[46zilzal]

SINISTER:the way,the truth,the light!....he's gonna go with the top fig,he got burned by WAR EMBLEM and CHARISMATIC.
that's why final time is Not the way to go...War Emblem had the energy distribution to run the way he did. Sinister Minister does not.

[classhandicapper]

Sweetnorthernsaint and Point Determined.

[Doc]

Beyer's pick = Derby loser

I bet the schmuck will take Point Determined, the "now" horse of the so-called professional handicappers.

[Indulto]

Beyer's pick = Derby loser

I bet the schmuck will take Point Determined, the "now" horse of the so-called professional handicappers.Doc,
You sound like you'd rather conduct Andy's autopsy than beat him with Barbaro.

[Valuist]

My guess is Sweetnorthernsaint

[PaceAdvantage]

I bet the schmuck will take Point Determined, the "now" horse of the so-called professional handicappers.

:rolleyes:

[the little guy]

Beyer's pick = Derby loser

I bet the schmuck will take Point Determined, the "now" horse of the so-called professional handicappers.

If you are very good and hard working maybe you could work your way up to the level of schmuck.....as if that's what YOU are referring to Beyer as then I would guess you are hoping one day to reach " plankton "....though since you used the yiddish word referring, though not kindly, to penis, I would guess the proper term for you is a derogatory one for another part of the anatomy...one that is in the same area of the body.

[DeoVolente]

Beyer's pick = Derby loser

I bet the schmuck will take Point Determined, the "now" horse of the so-called professional handicappers.

This 'Schmuck' revolutionized the game as we know it today. What have you done?

[Indulto]

I would guess the proper term for you is a derogatory one for another part of the anatomy...one that is in the same area of the body.tlg,
Is your pseudonym derived from your familiarity with that perspective?

[46zilzal]

This 'Schmuck' revolutionized the game as we know it today. What have you done?
He is a very bright man, just a bit too flamboyant for many.

[JustRalph]

Man! Rough Room!

Beyer is the only one I actually am interested in hearing from at this time of year. The rest is junk............I am speaking of many of those "pro's" who write in a "major racing publication" :lol:

Beyer is probably the only one of the "pro's" I wouldn't mind sitting down with sometime...........I don't think he is the holy grail or anything........but I think his perspective is the best..........

Hell, there are three or four guys on this board I would rather sit down with as opposed to some of the "writers"

[JPinMaryland]

"Schmuck" seems to be in common parlance this day and age. Hardly think anyone is offended by it.

False Indignation, maybe?

[jjm323]

Beyer. No clear favorite.

Will bet assuming AP Warrior, Point Determined or Barbaro will win.

May include SNS and LR underneath plus a yet to be determined 50-1 shot.

Brother Derek is a throwout.

[Indulto]

Beyer. No clear favorite.

Will bet assuming AP Warrior, Point Determined or Barbaro will win.

May include SNS and LR underneath plus a yet to be determined 50-1 shot.

Brother Derek is a throwout.J3,
There goes the price on Barbaro! Hope they publish the transcript as usual so I can find out why he tossed the horse that beat both APW AND PD. On the other hand, maybe that horse will will be an overlay in which case I might lay a 10 on B[r]o Derek. ;)

[chickenhead]

Transcript Here:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2006/chat_beyer.html

[Indulto]

Transcript Here:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2006/chat_beyer.htmlchickenhead,
Thanks for the link.
I think this race will fall apart. Sinister Minister is no Spanish Chestnut--he ran a phenomenal race at Keeneland and he would be a strong contender under other circumstances--but with Sharp Humor and Keyed Entry in the field I don't see how he can avoid getting involved in a suicidal pace. Even if the pinheads are trying consciously to slow the pace down, I don't see how the can do it with these horses.
tlg,
As the board’s designated Beyer defender, I’m sure you’ll find a way to spin his jockey-bashing as “un-schmuckable.”

[LemonSoupKid]

I like reading Beyer's thoughts about races, but I don't pay too much attention to his picks. I just use some of his angles to supplement what I think about the horses ...

His analysis AFTER the Derby is really the best stuff to read.

Good luck guys. I know who I'm going with.

LSKid

[kingfin66]

"Schmuck" seems to be in common parlance this day and age. Hardly think anyone is offended by it.

False Indignation, maybe?

Actually, I went to a Jewish friend of mine for an answer to this. He said that the "S" word is one of the more offensive things that you can call a Jewish person. He said that a much less derogatory word is 'yutz.' Now, I don't think that Beyer is either one of those so let us not begin with that word either.

[JPinMaryland]

I guess if you have to research it you really werent offended off the bat.

[kingfin66]

Thanks for the link. I like it that Andy takes a strong stance, but I don't understand his decision to toss Brother Derek. He says that Brother Derek is one dimensional and only beat 4 horses in the Santa Anita Derby. Well, two of those 4 horses were A.P. Warrior and Point Determined. Bro D didn't just beat them, he pummeled them! The horse was pulled up before the wire. I say, if you go with Andy on this one you lose.

Andy had some valid points about the pace, but that is always an issue with the Derby. There is always an abundance of pace in the Derby with all the young horses. Sometimes it falls apart, sometimes it doesn't. Last year we had the Spanish Chestnut effect with cheap speed collapsing. The before that Lion Heart (?) held on for second. I don't buy the theory that whole pace will collapse. He is probably right about a big longshot hitting the board, but I believe the winner will come from within 4 lengths of the lead.

[PaceAdvantage]

I like Andy Beyer....period.

I mean, if you're a horseplayer, how can you NOT like Andy Beyer? Jeez....

[kingfin66]

I like Andy Beyer....period.

I mean, if you're a horseplayer, how can you NOT like Andy Beyer? Jeez....

Exactly.

[Valuist]

I think he's on the money this year. He knows that the SoCal contingent is the strongest but he knows Brother Derek is vulnerable due to the trips he's had and his likely trip will be difficult this Saturday. He's taken a lot of heat for his Triple Crown selections but I believe he made a 6 figure score in the Belmont back in the 80s.

[JustRalph]

Beyer seemed a little reserved in the chat transcript I read. I normally like him for telling it like it is. I admired him berating Maryland when they raised taxes on Horse players a few years back. His articles on drug testing etc.

I wish they would have had more time with him during the chat.

[RXB]

I think he's on the money this year. He knows that the SoCal contingent is the strongest but he knows Brother Derek is vulnerable due to the trips he's had and his likely trip will be difficult this Saturday. He's taken a lot of heat for his Triple Crown selections but I believe he made a 6 figure score in the Belmont back in the 80s.

1984, Swale on top of longshot Pine Circle, heavy. And he gave it out in his column, too.

[Doc]

The last Derby score he made was back in the '80's? Golly, he's the guy I want to read for advice...

I don't use Beyer numbers and I never take his opinions to the windows.

[chickenhead]

He knows that the SoCal contingent is the strongest but he knows Brother Derek is vulnerable due to the trips he's had and his likely trip will be difficult this Saturday.

Derek is an interesting beast. Solis held him back in the Santa Catalina, but Derek never really settled, it didn't bother him, but he is just a fast horse that likes to run fast...Solis is gonna need to have him in a hammer lock for the opening half or more. If Derek settles a bit he might have a nice first run. I think he'll be in the mix at the top, but that's an awfully long stretch run.

I do like A.P. Warrior, I think he's better than Point Determined, his last two races impress me quite a bit.

[Hank]

Hey chick I liked him to until he drew PP#1:(

[Skanoochies]

Hank..... he never drew pp 1 yet. Thats just the order they choose their pp`s later today. :)

[Lasix1]

Hank..... he never drew pp 1 yet. Thats just the order they choose their pp`s later today. :)
In fact, it will assure he will have any post position he wants......

[cj]

Where is all the banter regarding Dan Illman's selection tonight? :sleeping:

[Art P]

whoever he picks immediately throw out. He will then come up with yet another excuse why he lost

[the little guy]

The last Derby score he made was back in the '80's? Golly, he's the guy I want to read for advice...

I don't use Beyer numbers and I never take his opinions to the windows.

Has he been calling you a lot and giving you horses?

Another jealous guy.

[chickenhead]

Who is this Dan Illman guy? Is he someones son, or married someones daughter? What's the story?

He just coined a new adjective "Funny Cide-esque". He said earlier SinMin may rate. wtf?

[Indulto]

Originally Posted by Doc:
The last Derby score he made was back in the '80's? Golly, he's the guy I want to read for advice...

I don't use Beyer numbers and I never take his opinions to the windows.
From the Beyer Chat transcript:
…I'm not sure Smith could win if he were on the reincarnation of Secretariat. He was riding so poorly at Gulfstream this winter that the strongest handicapping angle at the meeting was "Mike Smith off."

...I give no credence to jockeys' opiniioins.
Originally Posted by the little guy:
Has he been calling you a lot and giving you horses?

Another jealous guy.tlg,
From the first two quotes above, can you tell me how Doc’s disdain for Beyer is any more offensive than Beyer’s disdain for jockeys?

kf6,
My “research” indicates that the most common synonym for the “s-word” in society as a whole (unless, perhaps, one is an a-hole) is ”moron”, as in saying “you dumb schm…” when somebody does something really stupid. Again, is Beyer’s use of “pinheads” in referring to jockeys any less offensive?

Like tlg, Beyer is very entertaining when speaking in the media and in edited print. When he wants to be, Beyer is a wonderful ambassador and marketing tool for the sport/game. Undoubtedly, his influence has changed the game. The fact that the figures “that bear his name” are readily available in the DRF (and are no less effective than other commercially available figures) may be the prime reason that statistically mean payoffs have decreased since they appeared in the DRF, and possibly why he himself doesn’t always rely on them, e.g., War Emblem.

Not unlike his buddy, Beyer’s text can appear insensitive at times, as well as dismissive of non-professional bettors, non-racing insiders, and, of course, the jockeys that risk life and limb while he has nothing more physically demanding to do than open his wallet.

Am I "another jealous guy"? I'd say no less than tlg, himself, as Beyer certainly enjoys rock star adulation, and obviously has his own set of "groupies".

As he ignored my question to him re: Beyer’s Seattle Slew eulogy, I expect tlg will ignore this response as well.

[PaceAdvantage]

whoever he picks immediately throw out. He will then come up with yet another excuse why he lost

You could say that about almost anyone who has ever picked a horse.

Next.

[JohnNUtah]

I just want to pick up a copy of the Sunday paper on Friday or Saturday morning at the latest. At least the sports section.

Thanks.

[Art P]

lets get 19 opinions in here and then I will have the winner, Ill refrain from picking. Ill just cash in!

[PaceAdvantage]

lets get 19 opinions in here and then I will have the winner, Ill refrain from picking. Ill just cash in!

That's what I love about you....you're so darn helpful.

[NYPlayer]

I thoroughly enjoy reading Beyer, even if I don't always agree with his conclusions or share his opinions. His literary prowess is unmatched not only by other racing authors, but among sports writers in general. His prose has has an energy and verve that even the most disagreable reader might find compelling. My all time favorite was the image he conjured up in "Picking Winners" when questioned after a painful loss. It reminded him of a line from George C Scott's epic role in the film "Patton". After surveying a decimated battle field, Patton kneels down, kisses a dying soldier and utters "God help me, but I love its so." I can't recall how many times I've felt that way.

However, when it comes to handicapping opnions, I'm with doc. In beyer's first two books, he presented his speed handicapping methods and his ideas on trips and bias. He was quite successful in those years. In '93 in "Beyer on Speed" he confesses that his 1990 season in Florida was a loss, and that his methods were unsuccessfull in Australia, where he tried to take his game after learning that players there didn't have speed figures. He suggested focusing energy on the exotic wagers like the pick six and double triple (where he made two very nice scores). But let's face it, he hasn't written any books since and says he has no plans to. It's not that there hasn't been any important innovations since then, such as computer handicapping and the thriving professional gambling syndicates in Hong Kong. It's either that these new players don't want to talk to him for fear their methods become publicized and thus devalued, or, as I suspect, he found the last ten years unkind to his bankroll.

I don't believe in trips or track bias. Every track is biased, in favor of the rail. It's the shortest route to the wire. As for his figures, anyone who's used the Ragozin Sheets or Thorograph knows that they're more accurate (or those users they don't know what they're doing). My own results have improved since using the Ragozin product, and most solid professionals in Vegas use them as well. I'll be attending the Ragozin Seminar on the Derby tomorrow. I find their opions ever so more helpful.

Good luck to everyone - including the Beyer worshippers!

[KingChas]

Andy B was to subdued-low keyed this year in his chat.Maybe age, maybe intelligence,maybe both.After his chat he writes a Barclay Tagg (Whittingham) type article on Barclay Showing Up at the derby.Yes I know AB has Maryland roots and Showing Up is -as they say light in seasoning.But "Times are a changin" ala the dosage years.Maybe I'm over or under capping here but I love this game! ;)

[kenwoodallpromos]

I am refraining from being negatively critcal for Beyer in the chat because:
1) He did not say much negative about Ca racing, where Mike Smith went and stayed a very short time.
2) Probably because of what he seemed to say were relatively low prep winner Beyers this year, he did not bring up drugs.
3) He admitted that at least this year the result of the Ky Derby was not cut and dry.
4) I like 2 of his non-throwouts, AP Warrior and Barbaro. To his credit, this was Prior to post positions being chosen.

[Lasix1]

You could say that about almost anyone who has ever picked a horse.

Next.
Truer words were never spoken. Unless a horse is 1/9 in a very short field, the chances of anyone's pick winning are always less than the rest of the field. That's why all of these gratuitous attacks on Andy Beyer for his Derby record are absurd.

[Valuist]

I don't believe in trips or track bias. Every track is biased, in favor of the rail.



Re: bias, I take it you've never seen a race at Arlington, Churchill last year, or many Belmont meetings when the rail is deep and horses in the 1-2 paths have little chance of winning.

Re: trips, what do you think gets factored into the Ragozin and T-Graph numbers that you worship? Ground loss is a huge factor in their numbers, which is why they are good for grass racing but lousy for tracks where the main track outside is favorable. Let's take a look what makes up the trip: the pace, the bias (for dirt), ground loss, traffic and positioning. What's left? If you don't believe in the importance of trips, what do you think is significant? Other than trainers, there isn't much left.

[the little guy]

Schmuck means cock...whether people use it correctly, or misinterpret it's meaning, is really irrelevent. It means what it means. If someone doesn't understand a language, as schmuck is yiddish, then I would suggest they don't use it. You drumming up its misuse does NOT change its meaning.

Mike Smith rode badly at Gulfstream...this is something anyone paying attention noticed.

The difference between what Beyer did and what this buffoon did is that Andy did it using his own very public name, while this poster did it while cowering anonymously behind his computer. This is obvious.

People taking potshots on internet forums against Andy Beyer are a dime a dozen. Merely cowards hiding behind their computers. I have spent thousands of hours at racetracks with Andy Beyer and have NEVER seen anyone approach him in anything other than a courteous and complimentary manner. Where are all these internet tough guys in the real world?

[the_fat_man]

You could say that about almost anyone who has ever picked a horse.

Next.

Exactly correct.

The point being that, anyone who is even remotely serious about the game could care less about the selections of others; 'experts' or otherwise.

Why would I care about Beyer's or anyone else's selections for a given race. I mean, there's even a thread about the fat dude (NOT ME) that does commentary on ESPN (his name escapes me at the moment). Why would I care what he thinks?

I'm betting my money and thus should have my own opinion.

If I don't have an opinion, I don't bet. (I'd be an addict if I did.)

If I don't trust my opinion, I don't bet. (I'd be an addict and pathetic if I did.)

Ex-ballplayers usually make the best color analysts. Do I buy into everything (or even a small part of what) they say? NO.

Why would I be interested in the opinion of people that sell handicapping info? The argument is an old one: if they could make a living at the game, why sell?

This game, for me, is the ultimate challenge. If I can't cut, so be it.

If I had a friend that was a 'pro' and make good money better the races, would I bet his picks (assuming he shared)? NO
If I can't select winners, what's the point of playing?

I must be missing the point here. I really need to start buying some handicapping 'aids' and closely following the opinions of the 'experts'.


Now, if you're out there making a public display of your selections (bigtime event) you really should be prepared for criticism. Any notice is better than no notice at all. Beyer gets this; he doesn't need defending.

[46zilzal]

Remember Cefis, Concern, Antley/Zito Alydar colt who won the Derby? What do they all have in common? They come from the CLOUDS and traffic slowing down in front of them was usually their failing. Sweetnorthernsaint, as good as he is, seems to have that going against him.

[NYPlayer]

Re: bias, I take it you've never seen a race at Arlington, Churchill last year, or many Belmont meetings when the rail is deep and horses in the 1-2 paths have little chance of winning.

Re: trips, what do you think gets factored into the Ragozin and T-Graph numbers that you worship? Ground loss is a huge factor in their numbers, which is why they are good for grass racing but lousy for tracks where the main track outside is favorable. Let's take a look what makes up the trip: the pace, the bias (for dirt), ground loss, traffic and positioning. What's left? If you don't believe in the importance of trips, what do you think is significant? Other than trainers, there isn't much left.

My thoughts on the issues you raised:

1. Bias - Have you done any long term statistical study conirming the scenarios at these tracks? How do the post positions fare there? Is there a significant difference between these tracks and others based on those numbers? Biases are labeled as such usually on the basis of anectodotal observations such as every speed horse won today, so the rail was good, or no speed horses won today, so the rail was bad. But hey, if it works for you.....

2. Trips. Actually trips are very, very important. Take the following example:
A horse in a six furlong race runs three wide and rallies within a nose of the winner who raced along the rail. The horse who raced wide ran better. Even Beyer would admit that. Why? He covered more ground in about the same time, and that ought to be reflected in the speed figure. The difference is even more dramatic when the horse races wide around two turns in a route. Ragozin computes the ground loss, and so the basic speed figure is more accurate - that's what's important. Trip is important only when it causes the horse to lose ground.

3. Pace - Whenever the pace is unusually slow or unusually fast, it can favor horses with certain running styles. It's just that races with an abnormal pace are not very frequent. Also, front-runners have a natural strategic advantadge in that they can stay close to the rail and thus save ground. Ragozin has made some adjustment for some pace situations, but usually I do the pace handicapping on my own, but it's only a small part of my handicapping now.

4. Trainers - obviously very important. Some of them work majic. It's very wise to know who the magicians are at the tracks one plays.

I worship no one or anything. I just use what works - what gets me the best results. The point behind using the Ragozin numbers is to understand how a horse is developing. They'll tell you when a horse will bounce, and they can signal when a horse is about to improve. Very few horses are consistent from race to race. It doen't matter very much whatt the pace is, the condtion of the track, or who the trainer is. If a horse is not in conditon to run, or is ready to regress off of a big effort, it's not likely to win. Form is the bottom line in handicapping.

[Valuist]

I don't think you need to tell me that ground loss is significant; I already stated in was important on the turf and on tracks that aren't biased toward the outside. But then you go on to say "trip is only important when you lose ground". What about checking? What about crossing over heels? What about speed duels, stalking speed duels, being lone speed, being lone closer, hell even being lone presser or stalker. What about being pinned in tight between horses? I could go on and on but there's a lot more to a trip than ground loss.

As for bias, I never assume a good rail track is automatically a speed favoring track or an outside track is a closers. They are probably more likely to be that way but it is still a generalization. During Keeneland's opening week there was a day the rail was excellent but several stalkers/closers won. They just happened to save ground and hug the rail all race. OTOH, I've seen many days at Arlington where the 3-4 paths were ideal and the riders knew it. Speed horses coming into the stretch on the lead several paths off the inside. Those that tried to rally on the inside were doomed and speed that was stuck inside went nowhere. I've been betting Arlington for over 20 years and the rail is dead more often than not, although I'm not assuming it will be that way when it opens tomorrow. I've been betting Belmont and Churchill for over 10 years....Churchill is usually neutral but last year had a number of periods where paths 3-5 were the ideal place to be. Belmont's fall meet has been notorious for being outside biased. It wasn't as bad last year but you don't have to go back to many years to see it.

I agree form is significant but knowing if a horse was hurt or helped by the pace and bias is a key element in figuring a horse's form.

[Indulto]

Originally posted by the little guy:
Schmuck means cock...whether people use it correctly, or misinterpret it's meaning, is really irrelevent. It means what it means. If someone doesn't understand a language, as schmuck is yiddish, then I would suggest they don't use it. You drumming up its misuse does NOT change its meaning.tlg,
You’ve exceeded expectations by actually responding, but not by the reasoning behind the response. Are you suggesting that I stop using the term “ménage e trois” since I don’t speak French and am not of French descent? Obviously, ugliness is in the eye of the beholder.
Mike Smith rode badly at Gulfstream...this is something anyone paying attention noticed.Assuming it was the same groupie wannabe that has posted here in the past, was Beyer just being diplomatic or basking in the fawning clown’s prose in the following?
From the Beyer Chat transcript:
Chuckles_the_Clown:
Q: Andy, your one of the most influential and knowledgeable individuals in the game. A Terrific writer, gifted in the use of the language. It won't detract from your standing if it doesnt happen here. But we'd like to see you pick the Derby winner this year.
Andy Beyer:
I'm certainly going to try.If you chose the former, why didn’t Beyer just say “Mike Smith rode badly at Gulfstream”?
The difference between what Beyer did and what this buffoon did is that Andy did it using his own very public name, while this poster did it while cowering anonymously behind his computer. This is obvious.Ah yes, the “I’m a celebrity defense” -- very useful when striking reporters and photographers. You’re forgetting another difference, Beyer is paid to take his potshots and so has the protection of his editors to obviate any need to cower behind his computer. Is it your contention that you and Beyer are both COURAGEOUS insulters? Please don’t use the term “buffoon” without checking the mirror first.
People taking potshots on internet forums against Andy Beyer are a dime a dozen. Merely cowards hiding behind their computers. I have spent thousands of hours at racetracks with Andy Beyer and have NEVER seen anyone approach him in anything other than a courteous and complimentary manner. Where are all these internet tough guys in the real world?tlitg (the little internet tough guy),
I didn’t see you attaching your public name to posts like the ones that appeared in the Frankel scratching thread you started. If it hadn’t been posted here that you would be on internet radio, I would never have heard the on-air, articulate, entertaining, and friendly public demeanor that belies your intimidating behavior here. Can we look forward to any public potshots in your future broadcasting endeavors?


Tell me, counselor, are those “thousands of hours” you spend with your client in places which permit access to real world “little guys”, or are they spent primarily in the Press Box and other areas limited to racing insiders and the horseplaying elite? How many people attend the track today compared with those who play and enthuse on-line? Why do you cyber-whine whenever someone expresses an opinion that the talented half of your “dynamic duo” might not be perfect. Try eating a hot dog once in a while, Robin.


BTW you still haven’t addressed my Seattle Slew eulogy issue.

[the little guy]

I don't read most posts here and have no knowlkedge of or interest in your " Seattle Slew Eulogy " post and frankly from the way you respond I am sorry I wasted any of my time doing so this time. You state things in non-factual and smart-ass ways to suit some sort of half -assed agenda of yours and your analogies don't hold up.

I'm sure you will respond with more of your confrontational claptrap....but as you have now been placed on ignore, where you belonged a long time ago, you will merely be entertaining yourself...as I doubt anyone else is entertained by your crap.

Have a great life.

[PaceAdvantage]

It's either that these new players don't want to talk to him for fear their methods become publicized and thus devalued, or, as I suspect, he found the last ten years unkind to his bankroll.

HUH? Talk about jumping to uninformed conclusions. I could easily come to the conclusion that the reason Beyer hasn't written a book in some time is because he is TOO BUSY MAKING BOATLOADS OF CASH AT THE TRACK. Now who's right? You or me?

My own results have improved since using the Ragozin product, and most solid professionals in Vegas use them as well. I'll be attending the Ragozin Seminar on the Derby tomorrow. I find their opions ever so more helpful.

OK. Allow me to jump to an uninformed conclusion of my own based on your words above. Either you are a shill for Ragozin, or you are unaware of the pari-mutuel concept that the more people who use the Rags, the less successful your own results will be, so why tout them?

Not very fair of me, eh?

[Indulto]

I don't read most posts here and have no knowlkedge of or interest in your " Seattle Slew Eulogy " post and frankly from the way you respond I am sorry I wasted any of my time doing so this time. You state things in non-factual and smart-ass ways to suit some sort of half -assed agenda of yours and your analogies don't hold up.

I'm sure you will respond with more of your confrontational claptrap....but as you have now been placed on ignore, where you belonged a long time ago, you will merely be entertaining yourself...as I doubt anyone else is entertained by your crap.

Have a great life.tlg,
You sure can't take it as well as you give it.

If my "smart-ass ways" and "half-assed agenda" causes you to now reconsider the effects of your posts before lashing out, then I haven't wasted my time. Too bad your blinkers-on approach prevents any self-reflection or insight into your own posting etiquette. Even your final words come off as a curse, Red Baron.

[NYPlayer]

HUH? Talk about jumping to uninformed conclusions. I could easily come to the conclusion that the reason Beyer hasn't written a book in some time is because he is TOO BUSY MAKING BOATLOADS OF CASH AT THE TRACK. Now who's right? You or me?



OK. Allow me to jump to an uninformed conclusion of my own based on your words above. Either you are a shill for Ragozin, or you are unaware of the pari-mutuel concept that the more people who use the Rags, the less successful your own results will be, so why tout them?

Not very fair of me, eh?


All is fair on this board - Touche.

We can speculate all day on what Andy has been up to the past decade. I'm entitled to my opinion, same as you, and I think phrases such "I suspect" are honest enough". I'm not omnicsient, and I've never met the man. My opinion is just based on the tone of his last book in which at times he seemed nearly lost as though searching for a new method as revolutionary as his speed figures were. His failures in Florida in the early '90s and in Australia were his own admissions. Overall, the tone of the book was quite pessimistic, and he hasn't written since. This stands quite in contrast to his first few books in which the reader encounters an ebulient, successful handicapper, eager to brag to the world of his success. I mean, I could be wrong, but I think the silence is deafening.

I'm no schill for the raggies. I'm only a customer, and I have no plans for any books. All I know is that my own results have improved, and the rags haven't gone up in price for several years, which means they're adding more users. Some raggies are famed for being big bettors. One pro I've read about bets about 25-50k per day, so they're already impactng the mutual machines. Truthfully, I'm not worried about it. Beyer has ridiculed the Sheets in the past. He and the DRF have effectively dominated the conversation on methodology, so more players follow their advice. I'm just saying they're wrong.

[the_fat_man]

HUH? Talk about jumping to uninformed conclusions. I could easily come to the conclusion that the reason Beyer hasn't written a book in some time is because he is TOO BUSY MAKING BOATLOADS OF CASH AT THE TRACK. Now who's right? You or me?



He doesn't need to write a book, boss
he's selling figs; essentially the same thing.

I really get a kick out of this 'bounce' thing.

I agree that horses can 'bounce' after a tough race
but
evidence for this would be in how the horse comes out of that race ---doesn't eat; needs to walk for a few days rather than going to the track, etc. --in other words, is knocked out by the effort.

Anyone who's worked on the backstretch would know what I mean.

Thus, the sheet guys would need to be in touch with the trainer/handler to know whether the horse reacted in this particular way
anything else is rhetoric, IMHO

Moreover

requiring a bit more time to recover after a tough race does not necessarily mean that a horse won't run well the next time.

Of course, it could turn out that the 'sheet bounce' and the 'backstretch bounce' occur as a pair. The relation could be a BICONDITIONAL. Stranger things have happened.

Let's see if we can get DRUGS to investigate, and report on, this issue.

Poor dude's being relatively inactive since his big horse was pulled from the dance.

[JPinMaryland]

can someone pt. me to the menage a trois thread? :jump:

[Tom]

Schmuck means cock...whether people use it correctly, or misinterpret it's meaning, is really irrelevent. It means what it means. If someone doesn't understand a language, as schmuck is yiddish, then I would suggest they don't use it. You drumming up its misuse does NOT change its meaning.


Problem is, how mnay people even know that is a yiddish word? I have heard that word as long as I can remember, and always thought it meant a dope, like Shemp was a shcmuck. Andicap got offended a while ago when someone used the phrase chink in the armour. Again, that was a common phrase all my life - never associated it with anything other than a weak spot, a flaw, a spot to exploit.
Just because it means what it means to you doesn't mean it means anything to other people -I know very few yiddish words, and frankly don't care to learn any. I have heard shcmuck used in movies, in books, in school - I suspect not many people have any idea what it means to you. When you blend so many cultures as we do here, things are going to get blurred - no reason to take offense when none was intended - that is very islamic! :rolleyes:

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/schmuck

Looks like multiple meanings here....

[Lasix1]

Tom is right.

Wittgenstein, the greatest analytic philosopher of the 20th century revolutionized the study of language by showing that the meaning of a word is its use in whatever language game is being played with it. Yiddish is only one of many games played with the word schmuck and it is certainly not the conventional one now, and decidedly not on this board. No single language game owns any word.

The Yiddish use of the word as male genitalia has now been overwhelmed by the more common use that Tom mentions.

I suggest, following Wittgenstein, that one not use the word in Yiddish company unless they mean to call someone a dick. Elsewhere, as Tom says, it simply means a dope.

[PaceAdvantage]

Seriously folks, enough is enough, right? Talk about "thread creep"

[JPinMaryland]

I thought 'yutz" was the actual word for penis.

[BetHorses!]

Either you are a shill for Ragozin, or you are unaware of the pari-mutuel concept that the more people who use the Rags, the less successful your own results will be, so why tout them?




He sounds like one of those guys that started using the sheets you know just looking at a number and some trainer stats and is just losing slower now...so its the best thing since sliced bread

[cryptic1]

The derogatory yiddish word is actually putz. This is the circumsized
part of the penis and was used when someone wanted to use a strong
insult. Schmuck can be defined as a dick, but it never was a strong
insult, merely descriptive of someone who was an idiot. I've heard yutz
used to mean a buffoon but I'm not even sure its actually a yiddish word.
Man, can this board get into strange tangents.

cryptic1