Anyone using the Capper?

[jackad]

Is anyone using the Capper, Gordon Pines new software program?
If so, would you share youre experience with this program?
Thanks.
Jack

[Lefty]

Jackad, Mowers over at Netcapper site say top overlay showing a 10% profit over 338 plays.
Waiting for Kitts' review.

[kitts]

Sorry, did not know my fans were waiting for a review. <g> I will do my best to post a review this weekend....

[kitts]

As promised----
Review of The Capper software-

Since the owner's manual is 100 pages, I will not be doing an A-Z review here but more of a overview. I am of the opinion that most readers here are experienced handicappers so I don't need to go into too much detail. So, here goes

The program assists handicappers in two sections: Race Reports and Past Performances. Many features of each are avaiable in both modules.

The Race Reports sceen shows eight Tabs, the interesting ones being: Betting Line, Predictors, Pace Summary, Pace Graph, Connections, Breeding and Entries. The Betting Line is the bottom line here. The program computes a fair odds line and the user is urged to bet only horses going off a better odds. The Predictors are a result of the user's handicapping races and downloading results. The predictors success impacts the fair odds line significantly. The Predictors include old favorites like 1st Call, 2nd Call and Final Call. Also Power Ratings based on Early Time, Presser Time, Sustained Time, Energy and Post Position. The Post Position impact is way complex and is the result of years of learning how to "smooth" this data. The next three Predictors are based on the Jim Cramer approach with a Running Style Bias, Cramer Speed ratings and best Cramer for the horse. Also power ratings for jockey, trainer, trainer and jockey, condition, pedigree and the money box. The final power rating is a composite of all Predictors. Each of these Predictors is shown with the True Impact Value of each of those Predictors on this race. The Pace Summary is the Cramer Running Style/Position and the projected fractions, color coded and sortable by column. The Capper uses Track/Surface/Distance adjustments. These are based on current races at that track and that recency has made them a proven adjustment superior to Par times. The Connections and Breeding Tabs let you sort away on all the T&J and breeding stats.

The Past Perfomances module, as you might surmise, shows the typical pp info. It includes what one would suspect with many fractions and position/beaten lengths and Variants. The program adds columns showing Cramer Running Style, speed rating for the horse and for the race. Meds, equipment, final odds, field size, weight and dollars earned in this race are also here. Workouts are also shown and there are Filters available so the user can filter the running lines to reflect any one of 17 filters. And the very nice feature of allowing the user to print out these pps a la DRF.

And then we have the General Reports module. This is the real goodie box wher the TSD models are shown in detail-like how many lengths from the front does a winning horse have to be on $10k Claimers on an off track? Etcetera. The TSD adjustments are also shown as well as the data for the Post Position bias. Then there is a Cramer Running Style Bias report and a Predictors report which shows win percentage and ROI among other items. And then the "frosting on the cake"-the Top Five Win% and ROI by track. Including how the top 1, the top 2, the top 3, the top 4 and the top 5 did for win percentage and ROI AND how did they do as Overlays or Underlays. One could discover that at your track the players are so smart, the only way to make a profit is on the Underlays! Imagine that, value guys!

The handicapping can be automatic which is the way the developer does it. The program offers some pace line chooser criteria. So pick one, download and compute! The program gives enough info for you to see what is working at your tracks. And, if you wish, separate result charts, T&J Stats and Pedigree reports can be generated.

Visit the developer's website at netcapper.com. You can get his address and send him $10 and he will ship you the manual. If you like it enough to buy the software, he will rebate you the $10. Or, if you have further questions, you can email him. The message board at Netcapper is called The Grandstand. A successful handicapper, Dan Mowers, has recently bought The Capper and is posting how it is doing.

This is for sure one nifty program.

[Ignatius]

Hi Jitts

If you actaully had to purchase hsh ($700+) or caper ($300+?) and the downloads necesary to run them (another $100/mo.) which one did you choose and why? Thank you for your Candid Answer.

[JimG]

Kitts,


Enjoyed reading your review of the Capper. Thanks for taking the time to post.


Jim

[kitts]

Ignatius-

I own both HSH and The Capper (and Equisim and some others.) For my basic handicapping that I have been doing for years The Capper does the job very well. However, I am a longshot player with long runouts and am trying to develop a method to catch low-price winners so I can get a dependable cash flow while waiting for a longshot payday and HSH looks like it can fill the bill. Once I get that going I will be in a position to play the horses for a living.

[jackad]

kitts,
You say you use the Capper as a longshot player.
Does this mean you bet the top-ranked horse if its an overlay? Any of the (how many?) top-ranked horses if they are overlays?

In short, would you elaborate on HOW you use the Capper as a longshot bettor? Thanks.
Jack

[kitts]

jackad-
I use The Capper for longshots, but not the easy way as suggested by the developer. I reduce the race to five contenders and then pick the pacelines. I rely on The Capper to then measure the "ability" of these horses. And I bet horses that are going off at odds higher than those shown in The Capper.

That is the oversimplification. I have been following the races since 1949, even more intensely since the '60s. I did not win consistently until the late 80s. I have developed a fair amount of skill in picking contenders-particularly longshot contenders. And I have developed a fair amount of skill in picking pacelines, some might call it aggressive paceline selections. So my success is not due to any software but is due to my own skills. I often pick a paceline that many would not. I often spot a "wake-up" in those poor horses that run at the bottom level. I use other software including RS-POS reports primarily to be aware of race-shape and to find any horses that I threw out that I should put back in. And I am also looking at other software, the success of which I will be glad to share with this group. I will still end up relying on my own skills. There is no software out there and never will be that picks winners to the level of an annual profit, IMHO.

I continue to lose in excess of 85% of my bets and I continue to get a high enough average mutuel to pay a small profit. And I will keep playing, win or lose 'cause I love the game!

[azmike]

Kitts:

Just wondering if you have any updates for us on this new program?

Thanks!

[kitts]

azmike:

There are some posts at their website:
http://www.netcapper.com and then log on to Grandstand. Most are from Dan Mowers and I have one there as well.

[azmike]

Kitts:

Thanks for the link to the Capper site. Interesting stats but a little sketchy.

I am more curious as to your experience and preference among the various software programs (if you are inclined to share) you have used over the years. I am particularly interested in your opinions because of your substantial experience (I see in your posts you have used All in One, Handicapping Magic, HSH and several other programs) and because it appears you are not hawking any products for self-gain.

There are no programs that are good for every player but your comparision of this newest program to the other programs you have used would be most helpful and appreciated.

Having made that request, if you are disinclined for any reason to make such comparisions, I certainly understand and will not make such a request again.

Thank you.

[kitts]

azmike (and others)

I have used many, many handicapping software programs over the years including those you mentioned plus many others. They are starting to fall into two categories, the labels for which have been over-used but are probably the right labels: Black Box and Data Mining.

HSH and Equisim are from the Data Mining school, IMHO. All-In-One, The Capper and Handicapping Magic (Master Magician) are more Black Box (even though the Black Box products are obviously not that if you want to make money.) I have also used Synergism, TPR, Thorovision, Master Handicapper Winner's Circle, A+, Aodds, Multicaps, etc. etc.

I learned one thing about handicapping software from the years I was with Cynthia Publishing-the program "fits" you or it does not. As of this moment I am trying to get a handle on Equisim and I am already comfortable with The Capper. I just started with the Master Magician and it looks like a winner. It is an excellent upgrade from Handicapping Magic I no longer use just one program but have graduated to not using more than two.

In summary, you have to use a lot of handicapping savvy to be successful with ANY program, The amount of randomness in this game makes it so. I still do not do well with Data Mining programs since they do not seem to have a solid "how to" built in. But I still manage to make a small profit.

[azmike]

Thanks Kitts:

I have also used many of the same programs you mentioned. I think my first program was All in One, many years ago. At the time I thought that one was the greatest but I came to like several others much better.

I also like to run more than one program. I know many don't like that style because it can be too confusing and time consuming.

Frankly, I am looking for that second program. I have been using Synergism and have done quite well with it. I understand a major upgrade is to be announced soon and I am anxious to receive that. The program's creator, Bob Purdy, is a great guy and gives excellent support. But, I feel more comfortable with 2 programs so I am trying to do my homework. The Handicapping Magic program and HSH do intrigue me but I haven't got enough info on either to make and intelligent decision yet. I like the second program to have a very different approach than the frist program so I can catch that horse that I might otherwise miss. I don't want two similar programs, if you know what I mean.

Your experience is very helpful and I appreciate it.

[Rick]

There's an interesting phenomenom that I've noticed. Anyone who's written a book or given a seminar or sold software or profited from touting handicapping information in any way is given more respect than those who just have ideas that really work. I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

[azmike]

I recognize the phenomenon but I don't think it is widespread on this board. In fact, I don't think you have done any of those things but I always read your posts with great interest. It sounds to me like you are one of a small number of handicappers who have figured out what works for you. That is a major success.

[Rick]

azmike,

Thanks for your positive comments. It's just that sometimes I get the idea that I should have written a book claiming things that are impossible or something that doesn't work anymore. These seem to be the guys who are always believed no matter how bad their opinions are. That's just not my style. But I can assure of one thing. I really do win money. I have nothing to gain by saying this. I don't have a book coming out sometime soon or a reputation to protect. Think about it.

[anotherdave]

Rick, I haven't written a book (well I did have a paper on betting published in a probability journal that no one has read) and nobody listens to me, not even my wife. Hopefully when classes start tomorrow at my college, some of my stats students will believe some of the stuff I'm trying to feed them. <G>

AD

[azmike]

Your well-reasoned and articulate posts speak volumes about your handicapping expertise. I have never met you but you do seem (to use the vernacular) to "have it together".

There is no doubt in my mind you do win at the races. I have read your posts very carefully and it is clear you know what you are doing.

I certainly don't want to turn this into a "lovefest" but please keep posting your insightful observations. Hey, getting your info for free rather than paying for it in a book or seminar makes sense (selfishly) to me.

As an aside, I see you are in Phoenix. I used to be in Phoenix and
played at Turf Paradise and the Dallas House OTB. Is Howard Hong still around? I was in a handicapping tournament at Turf one year, I came in 3rd--at least I beat Howard Hong :)

[Dave Schwartz]

AnotherDave,

And I'd love to read your paper. How does one obtain such a thing?

Dave

[anotherdave]

Dave,

I sent you a private email to answer your question.

Dave

[Lefty]

Mention of the Dallas house brings back a fond memory. Several yrs ago I was in phoenix for a Dr. Robt. Anthony seminar(hey, we didn't know then) anyway the event was supposed to include a trip to Turf paradise on Sun. Well, a hellacious storm swept through the area so the good Dr, took us all to the Dallas House for lunch and to play the races from there as they have their own pari-mutual setup provided by the track. Well, the electricity was off and the place was crowded and everyone was yelling at the good looking but harried waitresses. As luck would have it the electricity came back on shortly after we arrived. But the damage had been done and these waitresses were in catchup mode. Well, catchup they did and through it all I saw nothing but smiles and heard nothing from them but cheery words. They turned a near disaster into a great experience. I'll never forget those cheery waitresses at the Dallas House.

[azmike]

Lefty:

Several of the waitresses and staff were members of the family that owned the Dallas House. I agree, they were always very friendly and efficient. Sadly, the Dallas House is no more. Apparently they lost the business and I heard the principals are working at "Ernie's" in Scottsdale, a place that reportedly has great "bar burgers". Good memories.

[kitts]

azmike (and others)
To resume our discussion, I agree with you re Bob Purdy-he is a gentleman and a scholar and his programmer is very good. If you like pace segments, you would probably like the myriad things that HSH does with them. It is a pricey but powerful program and seems to have a user base influenced by Sartin concepts. Equisim also does things with pace segments and is very low priced. Or you might like to to try "contrarian" and check out Master Magician. The people behind this "graduated" from Sartin but the program does little with pace segements and it is very well designed and priced less than All-In-One or HSH. And Equisim and HSH and The Capper and All-In-One maintain message boards viewable by the public.

[azmike]

Do all of these programs now run on Windows?

I heard All in One still is only DOS

[azmike]

What data provider do you for the programs you are currently using. There seems to be some disagreement about the various providers, what is your experience?

[kitts]

azmike (and others)
Programs that run on windows: Master Magician, The Capper, HSH, Equisim, All-In-One (latest version coming out soon)--that is they run on windows but does not mean that they are Windows programs. The HSH is written in Clarion but looks very nice in Windows. I am of the opinion that Master Magician, The Capper, Equisim are Windows programs.

I worked for HDW in their early years in Las Vegas. There is no better data available, IMHO. Mainly because I know their standards. But most of the data out there is dependable. We should not be making betting decisions solely on software now, should we <g>?

So I use BRIS for Equisim, ITS for Master Magician and HDW for The Capper. HSH switched to HDW a while back.

[azmike]

It sure sounds like you have tried most of the "major" programs that are out there. Earlier you mentined you had also tried Synergism. How does that program compare to the programs you are currently using?

[kitts]

Synergism is the best, IMHO, of the pace segments programs. Surely the most elegantly programmed. Did netter with it than I did with TPR, Aodds, Multicaps but overall, I just don't get it with pace segments. I am the old style reduce the race to contention, pick pace lines aggressively and pretty much bet the highest ranked overlay. Hit rate always around 15% but good odds and long runouts as it is with longshot methods.

[azmike]

We are on the same page as to Synergism. I am currently deciding on whether to experiment with Master Magician, HSH, HTR or the Capper. I would not want another program that is too similiar to Synergism. I also want something that is pretty easy to use and pretty quick. My first impressions might be wrong but it seems HSH and HTR might require a pretty big learning curve. What do you think?

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by azmike
We are on the same page as to Synergism....My first impressions might be wrong but it seems HSH and HTR might require a pretty big learning curve. What do you think?

If I may buttinski, Synergism works better for exactas than any other program I've used. Ironically, the people that need it the least will fare the best with it, as subjectivity is required. You have to select pacelines and the paceline you suggest is critical.

Re: HSH- I've been using it for about a month and a half. I think it's safe to say it has the steepest learning curve of any thoroughbred software I've ever used. I'm by no means "there" yet, but as far as I'm concerned, the results are already worth the effort. I'm making money with it and that's the bottom line.

[azmike]

I definitely agree that picking the right paceline is critical with Synergism. Frankly that is one of the reasons I have been looking at other programs that "automatically" pick the "right" paceline, give you more parameters so the program can "automatically" pick your right paceline or programs that don't rely upon one right paceline--whew, long sentence.

In that regard what can you tell me about how HSH works. Thanks.

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by azmike
...In that regard what can you tell me about how HSH works. Thanks.

azmike,

In HSH you can design you own paceline system, use one of the paceline systems others have designed, or manually pick pacelines. I prefer to have it set up BEFORE the raceday begins so everything is automatic. That way all I have to do is press buttons. No muss, no fuss. Braindead, exactly the way I like it :>)

[David McKenzie]

azmike,

Addendum: In HSH the actual paceline selected is *not* nearly as important as it is in purely pace oriented programs, as a host of other factors come into play, not just the paceline. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that.

[GR1@HTR]

Re HTR:

If you have read and understand Brohamer, Quirin, and Davidowitz and Mark Cramer, Jim Cramer of HDW from BM Monthly(maybe Quinn, i havent read his stuff) you can pick up HTR very quickly. If not, your doomed!!! Only book I read was Chuck Badone's (former LS public crapper) book and then got into HTR, figured out I better read a couple of other suggested readings so I know what all those numbers ment...

[Derek2U]

Let me ask you pace guys this: can you Pace-Rate a horse's
last race or two and use that rating to see if he's in shape?
If you can tell a horse's last race had a Big PaceRating, maybe
you could forgive a poor race & think ... this horse could have
use that race to get in better shape....

[Tom]

I use pace to spot improving or declining horses. If a horse has been running crammer pace numbers early of, say 130-140, then he shows a 122, I start to think decline. What I like to find is a horse who has been runnning dull, then shows an improved pace segment, a good early pace or a good late kick, even if the entiore race was not that impressive. I look back to see how the horse ran when he was in form before, then I will use a paceline from back then if I think he will show further improvement today.
War Emblem had run tremendous pace figs in the spring, and lately, they were way, way lowere, even when he was winning, so in the Pacifc Classic, I made him a total throw out from hitting the board. Had I been using the crammer numbers back at Derby time, I never would have posted on this board that WE would finish dead last by 30+ lengths.
Now, the same analysis can be done with velocity numbers, quirin style pace/speed numbers, or total pace. Crammer numbers just seem to be very, very good.
Another real good use of pace is to look at the pace of the race and if the horse ran a poor one last time out, but the pace of the race was much faster than it has shown an ability to handle before, I call that a legitimate excuse and go back for a beter paceline. The public is not properly clued into this angle because they don't have the pace numbers to do it with.
If we can get toghether in the war room this Saturday, I'll post some examples of crammer pace numbers before the races.

[azmike]

I understand that the "Cramer" speed numbers are exclusive to HDW data, correct? The HDW data is used only by the programs listed on the HDW site, correct?

By the way, what is the "war room"?

Thanks

[kitts]

azmike, and others.

HSH has the steep learning curve mentioned elsewhere. The HTR people seem to have become Database experts as many seem to have picked up MS Access skills. As mentioned before, I lump programs under two labels-Data Mining and Black Box. I am of the opinion that HSH, HTR and Equisim are more into the Data Mining. Each group has a gifted leader and enthusiastic supporters. In the Black Box arena (and there is really no such thing), we have The Capper and Master Magician. IMHO, if you are content with Synergism then maybe the as-automatic-as-you-want-it-to-be The Capper might be just the ticket for you- If I must limit myself to only one. I am evaluating Equisim and Master Magician myself right now and I am content with The Capper. And, as always, I add that handicapping savvy is needed with any software program.

[azmike]

Since you have such extensive experience with several programs your advice is most appreciated. I sincerely thank you for your postings and insight.

I think I have narrowed down my choices to two that I will try next. I'll let you know whatever information I glean from that experience that might be helpful to you.

[David McKenzie]

azmike,

We were addressing one specific area, paceline selection.

To be fair to HSH, I should mention that you don't have to select any pacelines at all to use the program.

Actually, HSH seems like more than one program, it feels like about eighteen, twenty or maybe even thirty. I don't know the exact count, but it allows you to structure your handicapping in any way you see fit, be it with models, race filters, your own neural nets, composite ratings, form analysis or a myriad host of other options too numerous to list. That's what I meant about a steep learning curve. There's no need for you to EVER learn *everything* about it. I, of course, insisted on learning everything immediately, but I'm the kind of guy who wants his Maypo, and wants it now. Gimme, gimme.

HSH is constantly evolving and is in tune with what's happening NOW, not last season.

The only limit is your skill and imagination. I doubt any two people are using it exactly the same way. In fact, I'd almost give odds on it.

Heck, you can even press one button and get probabilities and wager value which produces a small flat bet profit all by its lonesome. That's about the closest thing to a "black box" I've ever seen.

I have the highest regard for Dave Schwartz. He's been truly exceptional, helping me instantly with any and all problems I've had. The software support has been nothing less than sterling. Incidentally, Bob Purdy is the same way with Synergism. Both men have the patience of saints. I certainly would have been exasperated with someone like me nitpicking like an old lady, but they maintained their cool under duress.

I'm not attempting to "hawk" either Synergism or HSH, but I wanted to be clear that HSH is more than one paceline program. Personally, I'd just as soon no one else in the world have access to something which may impact *my* mutuels. Oink :>)

[azmike]

Thanks David. I also went over to the HSH board and read many of your posts. Sounds like this program is proving to be a good and profitable "fit". Are you still using Synergism in addition to HSH?

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by azmike
Thanks David. I also went over to the HSH board and read many of your posts. Sounds like this program is proving to be a good and profitable "fit". Are you still using Synergism in addition to HSH?

azmike,

You're welcome.

I've been spending my energy on HSH to the exclusion of all other programs. However, when I started with Synergy that's what I did too. All or none, moderation has never been my strong suit.

That's not to say I won't return to Synergy, or use both at some point. I hit some monster exactas with two horse boxes using Synergy.

I'm concentrating on win bets with HSH and am not at the point where my little brain can handle handicapping with both programs simultaneously. As our favorite San Francisco cop said, "It's a wise man that knows his limitations," or words to that effect :>)

[hdcper]

azmike,

If you attend Turf Paradise, I would be more than willing to discuss your interest in these programs. I normally play both Saturday and Sunday(for sure Saturday) and sit in the Players Club. I will be easy to find, just look for the guy with the laptop in seat P15.

Stop by any Saturday and many of us that have used these programs or are still using them will be glad to share.

Hope to meet you soon,

Hdcper

[JimG]

Originally posted by hdcper

Stop by any Saturday and many of us that have used these programs or are still using them will be glad to share.

Hdcper

Bill,...Ah to be a fly on the wall listening to that discussion!<g>


Jim

[hdcper]

Jim,

Thanks for the laugh, you know me so well. Wish you could be there, I would love to hear your opinion.

Believe me when I say, I will tell the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

Thanks again,

Bill

[JimG]

Bill

Thought you would find that amusing. I think You, Baravot, Lefty, and I should hold a roundtable discussion on current horse racing software. Between the 4 of us, I think we have tried 'em all.


Jim

[azmike]

Thanks for the offer. Next time I am back in Phoenix I will take you up on that offer. Back when I visited TUP there was the Turf Club and the Club House. Which one is now the "Players Club"?

[hdcper]

azmike,

The Player's Club use to be called the longshot Bar. It is on the same floor as the Club House and Turf Club(3rd level) and is setup really nice with individual modules. Each module has a 13inch TV and available power for your laptop. Also in front of the seating are a bank of 12 larger TVs for all tracks active throughout the day.

Free admission and $2 charge for the module.

Look forward to meeting you,

Hdcper

[kitts]

"Bumping" to have the review of The Capper here.