Stevie Belmont
04-30-2006, 11:59 AM
1) (1) Lawyer Ron- Winner of the Arkansas Derby. Lawyer Ron is now undefeated on a fast dirt surface. Showed good speed early, but came home a little slower then some might have hoped for. Mckee worked the horse a little harder then he had to in the stretch. Final time of 1:51 will have many running away. Surface is not the fastest. Set early fast fractions, and no one was able to come get him. Still feel horse is peak form, and still room for improvement. Mckee might not want to get caught up in the early pace of the derby, could prove fatal. Horse will need to reserve energy somehow, did in in th Rebel. Horse will be 2nd choice on derby day. Last 3 Beyers 98,94,95 Probable odds 5-1 to 9-1
1)(2) Brother Derek- Co Leader. Made a statement in the Santa Anita Derby. Naysayers will say he only beat four horses, but do think the connections of the others were really looking foward to going against this guy? He was able to go easy early, and then turn it on and come home like a frieght train in 36 and change, without ever being asked for his all out best. Love the fact he reserved energy early and came home very fast. Something he might need to do in the Derby. Should be in the mix late for sure. Also shows he might not have to be in the lead early. Bred to run all day as he is a dual qaulifier. The test in the Derby will be much tougher, but there is little doubt that this guy can get it done. Questions are mounting weather he will be able to handle the pace, in what is one of the most competitive Kentucky Derby in years. Last 3 Beyers 108,102,108 Probable odds 3-1 to 6-1
2) (3) Barbaro- Nothing new with him.Wins the Florida Derby off an 8 week break, and worked hard in the stretch to do it. Finally raced over a fast dirt track, and he got the job done in smashing style. Not only did he win from the far outside, he chased moderate fractions at best. You can certainly say he was tested. No cake walk in wearing down a game Sharp Humor. He came home fast enough to warrant serious concern on Derby Day. Now the questions. Will he be sharp on derby day? Huge effort off a layoff. And another long break going in. He handled the 8 week break with no problem. The real question is, can he improve? Will be very interested to see how Matz works him. Horse is working great. No reason he won't take another step foward. Question is, will that step be enough for the win? Will soon see. Last 3 Beyers 103,95,97 Probable oods 8-1 to 15-1
3(6) Sharp Humor- Continues to work very fast in the morning. Horse looked pretty good in his battle with Barbaro. Will go into the Derby off a 5 week layoff. History indicates he has little chance. He is moving in the right direction, and the break could very well help him after two big efforts in a row. Another Funny Cide. You never know. The odds will certianly be right. Last 3 Beyers 102,97,82 Probable odds 20-1 to 40-1
4(7) Sweetnorthernsaint- Runaway winner of the Illinois Derby. Proved the Gotham was no fluke. Was able to set moderate fractions and draw off. Earned a big speed figure. Horse has ran well through his three year old campaign. Horse has been solid all spring. His Gotham was a huge race, being wide throughout, and still almost got up. His come home times have been very consistent and fast. Last Three Beyers 102,97,82 Probable odds 7-1 to 14-1
5)(5) Point Determined-Looked like he was making up some ground on Brother Derek in the Santa Anita Derby. He was all out in the lane. He did pass Brother Derek in the gallop out, problem is Brother Derek was never asked for his best and was being pulled up even before the finish line was approached. Looks can be decieving, it was still a good effort. Horse will should enjoy the surface switch at Churchill. Expect Baffert to have this one ready for a top effort. Last 3 Beyers 103,100,89 Probable odds 10-1 to 15-1
6)(7) A.P Warrior- Ran a reasonable third to Brother Derek. Will need to improve off that effort. Has class. Another who should enjoy a new track surface. Sheriffs gave us Giacomo last year. Well bred colt, and a good trainer is a good combination. Last 3 Beyers 100,101,77 Probable odds 25-1 to 45-1
7)(9)Bob and John-The Wood Memorial winner got the job done in the slop. Was not overwhelming in winning, but got the job done. Horse has been beat by Brother Derek. Baffert escaped east for his talented colt, and came away with the win. Headed to Kentucky. Gomez selected this horse out of the 3 Baffert trainees. Gomez thinks this guy can rate a bit and switch gears. As the Derby nears, you really have to think Baffert will have his 3 ready to roll, must respect him. Last 3 Beyers 99,97,102 Probable odds 8-1 to 15-1
8(new)Cause To Believe-Horse has been put back on the list. Son of Marias Mon could be sitting on a very good effort. If the expected pace duel takes place, this horses late kick could have him coming late. You would have to think this horse would fit somewhere on a ticket with the expected brutal pace scenario. Last 3 Beyers 92,98,92 Probable odds 35-1 to 50-1
9(10) Jazil- Seemed to be the only horse doing any running late in the Wood. There is little doubt he would have gotten to the winner with any extra distance. Track played to speed for most of the day, so it might be worth taking note of closing late kick. The big question will be the graded earnings. If he has enough, he will run. A longshot chance for sure. Kiaran almost got the job done last year at 73-1. Horse would move up over a sloppy track. Last 3 Beyers 97,84,86 Probable odds 30-1 to 50-1
10(5)Sinsister Minister- Took the express lane of the freeway called Keeneland all away around to score a 9 length win in the Bluegrass. Earned a huge speed fig in the process. The highest of any three year old up to this point. Putting another feather in the cap of the Californian contingent this year. We have seen many top figs, only to go down the tubes on different surfaces. He could very well be better then we think. He will be part of what looks to be a very lively early pace in the Kentucky Derby. He will be sent right out of the gate, and thats a scary thought if gets a way with it. Horse was used very hard in the stretch. People compare that effort to Bellamy Roads Wood. Not even close, Bellamy jogged around the track,Minister was all out being hit all the way. Last 3 Beyers 116,91,58 Probabale odds 10-1 to 20-1
11(11)Steppenwolfer- Late running son gets on to the list after his second palce finish in the Arkansas Derby. Has been chasing Lawyer Ron all winter and spring. Made up some ground late in the Arkansas Derby. Has a running style thata should benefit him in the Kentucky Derby. His late running style could very well have him in the mix late under the ideal set up. Last 3 Beyers 94,88,94 Probable odds 20-1 to 30-1
12(12)Private Vow-Showed signs of life in the Arkansas Derby. Was able to get into good position and make a bid in the stretch. At one point looked as if he might actually come at Lawyer Ron. Horse with out a doubt needed the race. Still trying to make up for lost time. Will work up to the Kentucky Derby. Horse should move foward, the question is how much can he move foward. Expect Assmussen to continue to work him and attempt to have him as close to his best as possible on Derby day. Still a tall order, but this colt has a solid foundation. Last 3 Beyers 91,81,96 Probable odds 20-1 to 40-1
1)(2) Brother Derek- Co Leader. Made a statement in the Santa Anita Derby. Naysayers will say he only beat four horses, but do think the connections of the others were really looking foward to going against this guy? He was able to go easy early, and then turn it on and come home like a frieght train in 36 and change, without ever being asked for his all out best. Love the fact he reserved energy early and came home very fast. Something he might need to do in the Derby. Should be in the mix late for sure. Also shows he might not have to be in the lead early. Bred to run all day as he is a dual qaulifier. The test in the Derby will be much tougher, but there is little doubt that this guy can get it done. Questions are mounting weather he will be able to handle the pace, in what is one of the most competitive Kentucky Derby in years. Last 3 Beyers 108,102,108 Probable odds 3-1 to 6-1
2) (3) Barbaro- Nothing new with him.Wins the Florida Derby off an 8 week break, and worked hard in the stretch to do it. Finally raced over a fast dirt track, and he got the job done in smashing style. Not only did he win from the far outside, he chased moderate fractions at best. You can certainly say he was tested. No cake walk in wearing down a game Sharp Humor. He came home fast enough to warrant serious concern on Derby Day. Now the questions. Will he be sharp on derby day? Huge effort off a layoff. And another long break going in. He handled the 8 week break with no problem. The real question is, can he improve? Will be very interested to see how Matz works him. Horse is working great. No reason he won't take another step foward. Question is, will that step be enough for the win? Will soon see. Last 3 Beyers 103,95,97 Probable oods 8-1 to 15-1
3(6) Sharp Humor- Continues to work very fast in the morning. Horse looked pretty good in his battle with Barbaro. Will go into the Derby off a 5 week layoff. History indicates he has little chance. He is moving in the right direction, and the break could very well help him after two big efforts in a row. Another Funny Cide. You never know. The odds will certianly be right. Last 3 Beyers 102,97,82 Probable odds 20-1 to 40-1
4(7) Sweetnorthernsaint- Runaway winner of the Illinois Derby. Proved the Gotham was no fluke. Was able to set moderate fractions and draw off. Earned a big speed figure. Horse has ran well through his three year old campaign. Horse has been solid all spring. His Gotham was a huge race, being wide throughout, and still almost got up. His come home times have been very consistent and fast. Last Three Beyers 102,97,82 Probable odds 7-1 to 14-1
5)(5) Point Determined-Looked like he was making up some ground on Brother Derek in the Santa Anita Derby. He was all out in the lane. He did pass Brother Derek in the gallop out, problem is Brother Derek was never asked for his best and was being pulled up even before the finish line was approached. Looks can be decieving, it was still a good effort. Horse will should enjoy the surface switch at Churchill. Expect Baffert to have this one ready for a top effort. Last 3 Beyers 103,100,89 Probable odds 10-1 to 15-1
6)(7) A.P Warrior- Ran a reasonable third to Brother Derek. Will need to improve off that effort. Has class. Another who should enjoy a new track surface. Sheriffs gave us Giacomo last year. Well bred colt, and a good trainer is a good combination. Last 3 Beyers 100,101,77 Probable odds 25-1 to 45-1
7)(9)Bob and John-The Wood Memorial winner got the job done in the slop. Was not overwhelming in winning, but got the job done. Horse has been beat by Brother Derek. Baffert escaped east for his talented colt, and came away with the win. Headed to Kentucky. Gomez selected this horse out of the 3 Baffert trainees. Gomez thinks this guy can rate a bit and switch gears. As the Derby nears, you really have to think Baffert will have his 3 ready to roll, must respect him. Last 3 Beyers 99,97,102 Probable odds 8-1 to 15-1
8(new)Cause To Believe-Horse has been put back on the list. Son of Marias Mon could be sitting on a very good effort. If the expected pace duel takes place, this horses late kick could have him coming late. You would have to think this horse would fit somewhere on a ticket with the expected brutal pace scenario. Last 3 Beyers 92,98,92 Probable odds 35-1 to 50-1
9(10) Jazil- Seemed to be the only horse doing any running late in the Wood. There is little doubt he would have gotten to the winner with any extra distance. Track played to speed for most of the day, so it might be worth taking note of closing late kick. The big question will be the graded earnings. If he has enough, he will run. A longshot chance for sure. Kiaran almost got the job done last year at 73-1. Horse would move up over a sloppy track. Last 3 Beyers 97,84,86 Probable odds 30-1 to 50-1
10(5)Sinsister Minister- Took the express lane of the freeway called Keeneland all away around to score a 9 length win in the Bluegrass. Earned a huge speed fig in the process. The highest of any three year old up to this point. Putting another feather in the cap of the Californian contingent this year. We have seen many top figs, only to go down the tubes on different surfaces. He could very well be better then we think. He will be part of what looks to be a very lively early pace in the Kentucky Derby. He will be sent right out of the gate, and thats a scary thought if gets a way with it. Horse was used very hard in the stretch. People compare that effort to Bellamy Roads Wood. Not even close, Bellamy jogged around the track,Minister was all out being hit all the way. Last 3 Beyers 116,91,58 Probabale odds 10-1 to 20-1
11(11)Steppenwolfer- Late running son gets on to the list after his second palce finish in the Arkansas Derby. Has been chasing Lawyer Ron all winter and spring. Made up some ground late in the Arkansas Derby. Has a running style thata should benefit him in the Kentucky Derby. His late running style could very well have him in the mix late under the ideal set up. Last 3 Beyers 94,88,94 Probable odds 20-1 to 30-1
12(12)Private Vow-Showed signs of life in the Arkansas Derby. Was able to get into good position and make a bid in the stretch. At one point looked as if he might actually come at Lawyer Ron. Horse with out a doubt needed the race. Still trying to make up for lost time. Will work up to the Kentucky Derby. Horse should move foward, the question is how much can he move foward. Expect Assmussen to continue to work him and attempt to have him as close to his best as possible on Derby day. Still a tall order, but this colt has a solid foundation. Last 3 Beyers 91,81,96 Probable odds 20-1 to 40-1