So What If It Rains?

[LisaMcNear]

It looks like rain may be a good possibility. Does this undermine the faster pace scenerio of Brother Derek, Sinister Minister, Sharp Humor, Sweetnorthernsaint and Keyed Entry as front runners?

Here's the forecast for Louisville May 6th. http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail/USKY1096?dayNum=8

[JustRalph]

it says 30% percent chance..............?

Hell, if they are like the weather people where I live............they don't have a friggin clue............

[OTM Al]

It is too far off to worry about just yet, but I would think it wouldn't change much. Maybe a little better situation for the E/P types and a little worse for closers. I can say when the rains came down in 2004 I knew Smarty Jones had just become all but a lock.

[JPinMaryland]

I was thinking of that and I was thinking a sloppy track might help one like Bob/John. On a normal fast day, I cant see how he wins. If he's close enuf to the pace to out run tiring front runners, he will run e.g. a 26 sec. final But the closers could get by him even if they are 5 or 6 lengths back, running a 25 sec final. If he's further off the pace, he cant close fast enuf.

But if the track comes up sloppy and there are greater distances between "waves" He just might. Say he's in the second wave 5 or 6 behind the leaders and say the third wave, behind him is like 6 or 8 lengths back. Then he might be able to grind down the front runners and there might be too much gap for the closers to get up.

[Tom]

Worst handicappers in the world - weathermen!
I wouldn't trust a weather report unitl at least them next day.
I was watcing the weather one night, the guy says no rain anywhere in the broadcast area - it was pouring and we had flash floods nearby that night.

[xfile]

Barbaro - end of story :cool:

[Roamin]

Xfile, Barbaro will be the first one after Sweetnorthernsaint

thats the whole story

[kev]

Just heard their calling for rain Thur. night stopping around morning and then starting again after oaks raining til about 4a.m. on derby morning. So being CD they could have the track fine by mid-day. I'm sure this will all change by Wed.

[dccprez]

Does anyone think they might seal the track and effectively "pave" it so that the speed carries even better?

Just a thought...

[LisaMcNear]

From what I've seen here, and by others, the horses that appear to favor a wet track include:

Sweetnorthernsaint
Barbaro
Point Determined
Bob and John

I'd prefer a nice sunny day.

[JPinMaryland]

I'd put in Jazil in there, he's definitely very agile and seemed to like the slop in the Wood.

Sharp Humour has won over sloppy Bel. track last Oct.

Seaside retreat has won on yielding turf.

[Doc]

I have walked across the Churchill strip many times, including when it was wet, and it's unlike your normal Philly Park-Belmont-Delaware surface. It's not deep to begin with, and so a horse who may not like slogging through a quagmire might take to it. Plus, it's one of the fastest-drying tracks I've ever seen. Unless it's raining during the race, there's a great chance that it could be fast by post time if the rain stops mid-afternoon.


Doc :)

[kenwoodallpromos]

IMO-
They will try to keep the track from getting too fast or too slow.

[46zilzal]

however it is running on Friday, there will be a repeat Saturday. Not enough time to change it dramatically

[kenwoodallpromos]

Track maintainence is on their websit.