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View Full Version : How To Throw Lawyer Ron Out


xfile
04-27-2006, 09:55 AM
Simple = Dosage. For the last 65 years only 4 Kentucky Derby winners had a dosage index ABOVE 4.00. (4/65). Those 4 were:
1990 - Strike The Gold (9.00)
1998 - Real Quiet (5.29)
1999 - Charismatic (5.22)
2005 - Giacomo (4.33)
Now, YES, the 4 occured in the last 15 years and still is only 4 for 15. And only once this decade (1/5) so far. Lawyer Ron's DI is 4.14
The ONLY other contender with a DI over 4.00 is Sacred Light (4.60) :cool:

cj
04-27-2006, 10:18 AM
Red Sharpie?

the little guy
04-27-2006, 10:38 AM
I tend to simply bet against horses not fast enough to win....which would include Lawyer Ron.

Lasix1
04-27-2006, 10:45 AM
Simple = Dosage. For the last 65 years only 4 Kentucky Derby winners had a dosage index ABOVE 4.00. (4/65). Those 4 were:
1990 - Strike The Gold (9.00)
1998 - Real Quiet (5.29)
1999 - Charismatic (5.22)
2005 - Giacomo (4.33)
Now, YES, the 4 occured in the last 15 years and still is only 4 for 15. And only once this decade (1/5) so far. Lawyer Ron's DI is 4.14
The ONLY other contender with a DI over 4.00 is Sacred Light (4.60) :cool:
xfile,

What's the impact value of dosage? Since most horses entered in the Derby are below 4.00, wouldn't they have a better chance of winning simply because of their sheer numbers?

xfile
04-27-2006, 11:08 AM
xfile,

What's the impact value of dosage? Since most horses entered in the Derby are below 4.00, wouldn't they have a better chance of winning simply because of their sheer numbers?

My example was a possible throw out for win position of a horse who will get alot of mutuel action. Only 2 horses of all the contenders don't have the DI low enough (just like my original post states)

JustRalph
04-27-2006, 12:10 PM
I love it when dosage gets all this play every year................

Little Guy...........great point..........

The Judge
04-27-2006, 12:20 PM
Steve Roman said before the 1991 Derby that if any horse was going to break the dosage method if would be an Alydar which Strike The Gold was. Alyer was placed on the Chefs list in the classic ranks. So now Strike The Gold DI is 2.60 of course it was after the fact.

xfile
04-27-2006, 12:33 PM
Steve Roman said before the 1991 Derby that if any horse was going to break the dosage method if would be an Alydar which Strike The Gold was. Alyer was placed on the Chefs list in the classic ranks. So now Strike The Gold DI is 2.60 of course it was after the fact.

Right - I got those stats from Dr Roman

xfile
04-27-2006, 12:39 PM
I love it when dosage gets all this play every year................

Little Guy...........great point..........

Who said anything about "play"? I'm using dosage to throw a horse out. :cool:

OTM Al
04-27-2006, 01:21 PM
Ah, the Lauren Stitch school of handicapping......DI is only one of many factors that have been used in the vast analytical pool of what factors have made a Derby champion. It is roughly equal to things like "is gelded" or "Raise A Native in Broodmare Sire line". DI of winners has been drifting up over time and a 4.33 is not that much above the 4.0 "cutoff". You want to put that much weight on that one factor, that's your call and your style. For me, its not enough to throw him out. Currently Sweetnorthernsaint looks pretty good and is my lukewarm #1, but I can't justify a ticket right now that doesn't have Ron on top too. He has shown speed, he has shown a desire to win. Those things matter too. If you think dosage is that important I invite you to look up the pedigree and record of one Danzatame. He was by Danzig out of the very well regarded Secretariat mare Secratame, who's most famous colt I believe is Gone West. You don't see that many dosage points on a horse too often, total of 50 I believe. I think this horse won once out of about 25 tries.

Lasix1
04-27-2006, 02:35 PM
My example was a possible throw out for win position of a horse who will get alot of mutuel action. Only 2 horses of all the contenders don't have the DI low enough (just like my original post states)
I didn't mean just this year, but for the Derby, period. I suspect the actual impact value of dosage is very low.

Moreover, your example of the Derby winners you cited with dosages above 4.0 (strike Strike the Gold since he was "revised" by the dosage boys looking to save face after his 1991 win) is a better argument for betting on every high dosage horse who is going off at a price. Real Quiet ($18.80); Charismatic ($64.60); Giacomo ($102.60).

If your point is don't bet high dosage horses going off at a low prices, I concur. But then in the Derby I doubt that many savvy handicappers bet low-priced horses anyway except in the place and show holes of exotics.

JustRalph
04-27-2006, 03:04 PM
Who said anything about "play"? I'm using dosage to throw a horse out. :cool:

change the word "play" to "talk" bad choice of words on my part. I mean, it comes up and gets written about etc.......like crazy at Derby time.

kenwoodallpromos
04-27-2006, 05:31 PM
How does LR's record for beating his stablemate compare to how many Ky Derby winners have beaten a stablemate that many times or more prior to the Kentucky Derby?

JPinMaryland
04-27-2006, 10:07 PM
it looks like 3 of the last 8 KY dby winners were high dosage colts. Is this a trend?

Lasix1
04-27-2006, 11:46 PM
it looks like 3 of the last 8 KY dby winners were high dosage colts. Is this a trend?
And, I just read, none of the last six have been dual qualifiers. Is that right?

Valuist
04-28-2006, 12:04 AM
I'm not sure we really know how fast he is. I thought he had an easy trip in the Southwest (which he did) and my mouth watered at the thought of Steppenwolfer inhaling him in the Rebel. One problem: Lawyer Ron ended up winning the Rebel much easier than the Southwest. His figs may be a bit lower than the top contenders but when one wins easily, like he did in the last 2 races, you can't help but wonder if there was something left in the tank.

I'll probably toss him out of exactas or tris but probably use him in P3/P4 tickets, thinking he could be an all or nothing type. But if I do end up tearing up losing tickets, I wouldn't mind seeing this 13 raced former claimer win it.