Derby Pace Setup

[ponypro]

I just read that Dale Romans said that Sharp Humor is the "one to catch" and that he was sending him. Is he insane. He couldnt outbreak Sinister Minister with a ten yard head start. If true the race is shaping up to be a fun one.

Sinister Minister - Baffert said the bluegrass "knocked him out for a few days". This is very negative. Anyone who has owned a horse can tell you that for a horse to maintain form or move forward after a race he needs to come back eat up everything in the tub and be bucking and squealing within a day or so. Id say he regresses alot

Sharp Humor If what Romans says is true he is in a photo for 19th and 20th with Sinister Minister

Brother Derek His best numbers have him running free on the front end. How many times have you seen a front runner that is delegated to a "second flight" stalking position " ultimately pace and fade. I think this pace scenario hurts him

Lawyer Ron my main concern about him is that he seems very keen early and uses the front runner as a "target" and runs at him until he gets the lead. Mcgee had his feet in the dash board in the Ark Derby and this horse PULLED him past the early leader. If he takes off after this pace and Mcgee cant control him, he is toast.

That tells me that my 6 horse box. (that seems deep but in this race the economics are very different and pay off big time) is to take the Three true closers
Cause to Believe
Steppenwolfer
Jazil
all at decent prices and find the Three Stalkers that figure. I havent determined the stalkers yet.

Anyone see a different scenario??

[Sinner369]

Ponypro

How about the other closer: Point Determined??

[dccprez]

I'm not in the mainstream about the expected pace for the Derby...at least not yet.

A few uneducated, but still plausible reasons;

- I dont believe all of what some trainers say about "sending" their horses. I suspect that some of the speed-ballers may, in fact, try to rate somewhat, based on recent derbies (last year and 2002 come to mind) where suicidal fractions set the race up for big closers...

- I've noted this in other threads and I'll reiterate; I feel (for some, inexplicable-but-nevertheless-strong reason) that post position will play a big role this year...

- That said, if Shapr Humor and SinMin have to clear some 16 and 17 other horses respectively, the pace - while surely pretty fast - may not develop into an off-the-charts duel. So...

- wouldn't that be the best scenario for the "favorites" - BroDerek, LawRon, Barbaro, Bob&John?

Just more food for thought.

[Ron]

Where did you read that Baffert said the bluegrass "knocked him out for a few days"? I don't trust Baffert anyway, so I guess it doesn't matter.

[kev]

Ok we all know it's going to be a fast pace how fast, I'll say 45.0 and 1:09 and something. Could we see the 44.4 or faster that would be great.

[JPinMaryland]

problem is that none of the closers really impress me. It seems most of the talent in this race is in the front runners/pressers.

[kev]

What are these two trying to do? See who will run the fastest 1/2 in derby history and brag about it after their horses runs 19th and 20th. Does Bob really thinks this horse could blaze it up like that and have a crack at it, or is he thinking in the back of his mind my other two horses will love this.

"In yesterday's column, Sharp Humor's trainer, Dale Romans, pretty much threw down the gauntlet and warned opposing trainers that his colt is going to the lead and will look forward to any challenges.

Bob Baffert, trainer of the freakishly fast Sinister Minister, responded by agreeing that Sharp Humor will be in front..."of the second wave. Sinister Minister will be the first wave by himself."