Bris Speed Rating Ky Derby Angle

[xfile]

This angle has worked very well: Coming into the Derby off of 1 (has to be last race) or 2 (they have to be last 2) triple digit Bris speed figs AND increased speed fig in last start. Those having 3 or 4 triples don't qualify.
This year's qualifiers:
CAUSE TO BELIEVE
JAZIL
LAWYER RON
POINT DETERMINED
SHARP HUMOR
SINISTER MINISTER
SWEETNORTHERNSAINT
If you believe the pace will be super fast then who will be left?
Answer = CAUSE TO BELIEVE, JAZIL and POINT DETERMINED <====

Winners that qualified (got 9 of last 16):
GIACOMO
FUNNY CIDE
WAR EMBLEM
CHARISMATIC
REAL QUIET
SILVER CHARM
LIL E. TEE
STRIKE THE GOLD
UNBRIDLED
Most of these paid a big number to win

[xfile]

These 3 are the bonafide closers with enough talent:
CAUSE TO BELIEVE
JAZIL
POINT DETERMINED

Could possibly be closing if he can rate again but we all know he likes it up front:
LAWYER RON

These 3 get burned up early:
SHARP HUMOR
SINISTER MINISTER
SWEETNORTHERNSAINT

[RXB]

I don't see Sweetnorthernsaint pressing the pace in this race. Brother Derek is more likely to be a pace casualty.

[xfile]

I don't see Sweetnorthernsaint pressing the pace in this race. Brother Derek is more likely to be a pace casualty.

How do you figure? His 3 wins were all done on the lead except one race he was pressing in 2nd (Ill Derby). He only knows the front. Have you seen his past performances?

[RXB]

Sweetnorthernsaint's speed figures are consistently higher than his pace figures. He runs away from his competition in the stretch time and time again. He has a router's pedigree, top and bottom. His jockey, who is not a congenitally programmed "send" guy, has won the Derby twice-- once from midpack and once from well back.

The one race that SNS lost this year was when he laid a little further back. However, a horse drifted in front of him turning for home and he seemed to lose his momentum and stride. Once he got his feet back under him, he put in a strong charge in the last eighth. I'm pretty sure that they'll rein him back some in the Derby. If he can't run from there, well that's how it goes. But it makes more sense laying back than asking him to press fast fractions.

Brother Derek has a sprinter/miler pedigree on both sides, and a pure lead/press running style. When he wasn't right up on the lead in the BC Juvenile, he faded. He does have a jockey (Solis) who is patient, but I can't see Solis being able to overcome this horse's limitations.

[xfile]

Why you keep mentioning Derek? I don't like him either. You might be right about SNS.

[RXB]

In your other thread, you listed SNS as a "pace burnout" and Brother Derek as a "who's left."

[Valuist]

[QUOTE=RXB]Sweetnorthernsaint's speed figures are consistently higher than his pace figures. He runs away from his competition in the stretch time and time again.

I do not view this as a positive for the Derby. This horse has made the optimum use of his energy, running near a slow pace then drawing away late. That's a perfect trip and he's going to encounter a whole new set of circumstances at CD. Those big wins look good on paper but he wasn't eyeballed in the stretch. And he hasn't taken dirt, either. He's got talent, no question but I don't think we can assume he's going to sit 7 lengths off the pace and rate w/no problem. If he does, he can win, but that's a big IF. Historically, these types have had a hard time adjusting for the Derby, even the very talented ones (Point Given comes to mind).

[xfile]

The horse I keep coming back to is Point Determined. :cool:

[Doc]

What type of running style do you classify Barbaro under? In the Derby pace scenario, where does he fit?

Doc

[xfile]

What type of running style do you classify Barbaro under? In the Derby pace scenario, where does he fit?

Doc

BARBARO - Perfect run style and if run style was everything he would be the horse. He's a Quirin EP (Early Presser). His first and second call positions for all 5 of his career races is 2. And by 3rd call he's 2-1-2-2-1. What does this look like to you? EP all the way. He's flying just a hair below my speed rating line but you could definitely make an exception for him if you like him. Barbaro:
2 2 2 2 1
2 2 1 1 1
2 2 2 1 1
2 2 2 1 1
2 2 1 1 1

[Doc]

Thanks very much, Xfile. I do like Barbaro and his trainer, will probably be using him on my Derby tickets.

[michiken]

I agree with the triple digit bris speed fig angle but add a little twist - another angle from last year.

Look at the highest speed rating earned in the 2nd to last race. Closing Argument ran a 107 at 1 1/8 miles at GP and was tops in the area.

Nice bomber.

[RXB]

Valuist, I'm not "assuming" that Sweetnorthernsaint is going to run well when taken off the pace. I am saying that there are reasons to think that:

1. he has a better chance to do so than the other horses that have been leading/pressing in their preps; and

2. the jockey (who changed Fusaichi Pegasus' running style successfully) will probably not force him into the hot pace.

[xfile]

Valuist, I'm not "assuming" that Sweetnorthernsaint is going to run well when taken off the pace. I am saying that there are reasons to think that:

1. he has a better chance to do so than the other horses that have been leading/pressing in their preps; and

2. the jockey (who changed Fusaichi Pegasus' running style successfully) will probably not force him into the hot pace.

There is no 115lb jockey who will "change" the running style of a 1500lb beast. If the horse wants to rate and the jock asks him to - he will. But guess what? If that horse says "noooowaaaaaay" you end up with a rank freak. No trainer is going to tell a jock to "change his run style" in the biggest race of a career. You let the horse do his best and how he knows. Then after the Derby you can try to work with the horse. Derby day is not experiment day. The Todd Pletchers of the world will tell you this. Read some of the press on the trainers' quotes of the speedballs in the Derby over the last week or so.

[RXB]

Examining Pletcher's KD record, maybe he should try experimenting on Derby Day.

There is a difference between a rank nut and a typical forwardly placed animal. Rank nuts won't rate; some horses that usually run near the front can be rated back successfully on occasion. And if you think that the jockey doesn't make a difference... well, I don't know what to say.

[xfile]

Examining Pletcher's KD record, maybe he should try experimenting on Derby Day.

There is a difference between a rank nut and a typical forwardly placed animal. Rank nuts won't rate; some horses that usually run near the front can be rated back successfully on occasion. And if you think that the jockey doesn't make a difference... well, I don't know what to say.
The jockey could make a difference if his name was ;
Jerry Bailey
Pat Day
Gary Stevens
and the jock I feel is the best out there (NOW) and way underrated is RAMON DOMINGUEZ. However if a speedball only knows to go to the front - that's it. Did you read Bob Baffert's comments on your topic. Is Baffert worthy of your ideas?:cool:

[RXB]

Um, did you actually read my last post, or any of my other posts? Did you notice the distinction between an unrateable speedball (Baffert's horse, the one to whom he is referring) and a horse whose energy distribution percentages are like a turf router's-- even in his two dirt sprint races?

I've said my piece. We'll see what happens on Derby Day. I'll be shocked if Sweetnorthernsaint goes out and presses the early speed.

[xfile]

Um, did you actually read my last post, or any of my other posts? Did you notice the distinction between an unrateable speedball (Baffert's horse, the one to whom he is referring) and a horse whose energy distribution percentages are like a turf router's-- even in his two dirt sprint races?

I've said my piece. We'll see what happens on Derby Day. I'll be shocked if Sweetnorthernsaint goes out and presses the early speed.

Have you seen the race videos (or live) and more important the horse's past performances? Just curious why you don't think SNS will be pressing. It's all he has shown so far. :cool:

[JPinMaryland]

He looked to be rating in the Gotham. I think that was deliberate strategy. :confused:

[xfile]

He looked to be rating in the Gotham. I think that was deliberate strategy. :confused: I loved him coming out of that race. Don't get me wrong - I will have tickets with SNS on top but I can't make him my top key horse. He did show a grit in the last sixteenth of the Gotham. Watch the replay again - I liked him for that reason. I just wish he had a win coming from off the pace a few positions. Something like this : 4 3 3 2 1. You might have proven your point to me on SNS. You definitely have me looking at him harder. :cool:

[JPinMaryland]

Rxb. Who do you like in this race? Or if you're not ready to pick; what factors are you most concerned with entering the derby? or do you prefer not to be the derby?

YOu've said some interesting things, so I'd like to see what else you come up with.

[RXB]

Honestly, I'm not wild about any horse. That's the truth. It's a rather shakey group.

The pace should be quite fast and the frontrunners will likely wilt, but there's not a proven good backrunner in the field. A horse like Monarchos would be the proverbial fox in the henhouse in this race.

Derby handicapping is usually pretty simple:

-- Competitive final times at 8.5f or 9f are important
-- Quality of previous competition is important
-- Unlike the vast majority of dirt races, finishing power is usually more
important than early speed

Sweetnorthernsaint would look like the winner if speed figures augmented by strong closing times were everything, but he lost to the two toughest horses that he's faced so far (Like Now and Keyed Entry in the Gotham) and he hasn't proven that he can run well from off the pace, which he must do if he wants to win.

Brother Derek fits a lot of the criteria but, in my opinion, he's not bred for 10f, the early pace will hurt him, and I'm very skeptical about his readiness given the quick pull-up after the SA Derby and the rather poor workout last week.

People are talking up Point Determined as the best closer. I'm mystified; I don't see a particularly strong closing line in his PP's. Plus, his big win to-date was a Golden Gate N1X.

AP Warrior is not much different from Point Determined.

Lawyer Ron has one solid speed figure; the rest aren't much. He's consistent and in form, but the pace will hurt him and he's facing better animals on Saturday. The horses in Arkansas were weak.

If people doubt that SNS can rate and win, well, Barbaro's chances look even worse.

Have a cab and three oxygen tents waiting at the quarter pole for Sinister Minister, Sharp Humor and Keyed Entry.

Steppenwolfer is a plodder. Jazil is not much. Neither is Cause To Believe. But the speed and pace animals look headed for a meltdown, so a mediocre backrunner could end up in the winner's circle, a la Giacomo. Or, they might be so bad that none of them can take full advantage of a glorious opportunity.

If I bet this race, I'll be tossing all of the low odds horses that are overrated and/or seriously disadvantaged by the pace, and trying to hit a big tri.

[JPinMaryland]

Okay you've said quite a bit and I appreciate it. Let me ask you one thing:

WHy do you think Barbaro cant get the distance? or do you think he can?

[JPinMaryland]

"Steppenwolfer is a plodder."

Yeah but he definitely beats LRon if the Ark dby goes another 100 yds.

[46zilzal]

The jockey could make a difference if his name was ;
Jerry Bailey
Pat Day
Gary Stevens
and the jock I feel is the best out there (NOW) and way underrated is RAMON DOMINGUEZ. However if a speedball only knows to go to the front - that's it. Did you read Bob Baffert's comments on your topic. Is Baffert worthy of your ideas?
can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. R. Dominquez is very good. But if I drive a Ferrari I beat you. Not in a Corolla. It is the horse not the driver that wins these contests. If it were the difference of a few feet, then a better, hall of fame rider would get it done. Why do you think riders like Day, Pincay, Solis and a bunch of very good ones have such a dismal record? It is the horse and racing luck that gets your picture in the Louisville papers on Sunday.

[jjm323]

"Steppenwolfer is a plodder."

Yeah but he definitely beats LRon if the Ark dby goes another 100 yds.

just watched it again and I don't think so. Southwest, yes. Arkansas, no. He is too damn slow and will close from 18th to 8th.

[JPinMaryland]

But I cant toss him (Stepp.) as it looks like he gets 10f. Yeah he's slow too.

[RXB]

Okay you've said quite a bit and I appreciate it. Let me ask you one thing:

WHy do you think Barbaro cant get the distance? or do you think he can?

I think that Barbaro can get 10f under different circumstances-- i.e., a slower, less contested pace than what projects to occur on Saturday.

[Walter]

I don't see Sweetnorthernsaint pressing the pace in this race. Brother Derek is more likely to be a pace casualty.

Some of you may like to check out www.racingpost.co.uk go to 'Bloodstock Desk' and read about 'Brother Derek' and the last paragraph about 'Sweetnorthernsaint' (I backed it @12.5 on Betfair last week) Good Luck!