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formula_2002
04-23-2006, 05:10 AM
ok, what am I missing here ?
Today's match-up;

Keeneland: Race 3 - TURF ONLY
Sun 4/23 Cape Hope vs Kaylan's Rose
10:45 AM 30 Cape Hope -147
31 Kaylan's Rose 131

By my calculations,using the above Pinnacle numbers, Cape Hope is 1.37 times more likely to beat KR.

The morning line hase cape hope at 5/2 and KR at 10-1. By my calculations, using the ML, Cape Hope is 3.14 times more likely to beat KR.

thats quite a difference!



Another question, are the Pinnalce odds "fixed odds".

Looks like the Pinnacle vig is 2.6%


Joe M

cj
04-23-2006, 05:53 AM
They are fixed in that whatever they are when you bet, you get. They do, however, change the lines periodically.

formula_2002
04-23-2006, 11:18 AM
Here is another interesting matchup for today.

Santa Anita: Race 9 - TURF ONLY
Sun 4/23 Wild Buddy vs T. H. Approval
4:11 PM 45 T. H. Approval -218
44 Wild Buddy 202

By my calculations,using the above Pinnacle numbers, THA is 2.07 times more likely to beat WB.

The morning line has THA hope at 5/2 and WB at 10-1. By my calculations, using the ML, THA is 3.67 times more likely to beat WB.

formula_2002
04-23-2006, 01:40 PM
Cape Hope went from -147 to -155
T. H. Approval went form -218 to -253

this is a good thing, right?
I was laying 147 for 100, now it would cost me 155 for the same 100, right?

Jeff P
04-23-2006, 02:13 PM
The lines do move. Sometimes a lot. I'm of the opinion that WHEN you bet matters more than WHO you bet. Whenever I have a strong opinion on one side or the other I'll wait. Sometimes I can lock in 50+ points more than the original line on the side I want.

-jp

.

formula_2002
04-23-2006, 03:01 PM
ok, what am I missing here ?
Today's match-up;

Keeneland: Race 3 - TURF ONLY
Sun 4/23 Cape Hope vs Kaylan's Rose
10:45 AM 30 Cape Hope -147
31 Kaylan's Rose 131

By my calculations,using the above Pinnacle numbers, Cape Hope is 1.37 times more likely to beat KR.

The morning line hase cape hope at 5/2 and KR at 10-1. By my calculations, using the ML, Cape Hope is 3.14 times more likely to beat KR.

thats quite a difference!


Joe M


The results!!
The public made CH 4.3-1, and KR 13-1.
It seems the public was saying that Cape Hope is 2.48 times more likely to beat KR.

Guess what!! It didn't happen!
CH runs last and KR finishes 4th.

andicap
04-23-2006, 06:12 PM
ridiculous redboarding

Cape Hope is out 309 days. Comes back and runs a figure close to her recent top. That knocks her out for 54 days. (Fillies are more susceptible to getting set back after tough races although not so much on the turf.)

22 days ago, she returns, runs another race not far from her top with a strong pace fig to boot. . Probably needed more recovery time.

Of course that's easy for me to say NOW.

Bottom line, those Pinnacle boys are pretty sharp in setting these lines. They're not giving anything away.

sjk
04-23-2006, 06:31 PM
Sounds like some of you are looking at PPs for Kee 3. Our filly ran 2nd in there and we weren't able to get down there today. I never did see the PPs.
What did the winner look like on paper?

formula_2002
04-23-2006, 06:36 PM
ridiculous redboarding

Cape Hope is out 309 days. Comes back and runs a figure close to her recent top. That knocks her out for 54 days. (Fillies are more susceptible to getting set back after tough races although not so much on the turf.)

22 days ago, she returns, runs another race not far from her top with a strong pace fig to boot. . Probably needed more recovery time.

Of course that's easy for me to say NOW.

Bottom line, those Pinnacle boys are pretty sharp in setting these lines. They're not giving anything away.
Hi Andy,

It looked to me that cj figs had the two horses a bit closer as did Jeff Platts Jcapper.
I may just track these plays for awhile. Of coures I may have to meld cj,jeff and the Pinnacle boys stuff into an entirely new figure!! :)

Joe M

formula_2002
04-23-2006, 07:56 PM
Here is another interesting matchup for today.

Santa Anita: Race 9 - TURF ONLY
Sun 4/23 Wild Buddy vs T. H. Approval
4:11 PM 45 T. H. Approval -218
44 Wild Buddy 202

By my calculations,using the above Pinnacle numbers, THA is 2.07 times more likely to beat WB.

The morning line has THA hope at 5/2 and WB at 10-1. By my calculations, using the ML, THA is 3.67 times more likely to beat WB.

THA ?
winner!!

BetHorses!
04-23-2006, 11:59 PM
I know a guy who beat them for about $200,000 over the past year on just the matchups. And they never chased him. Tragically he passed away recently.

Valuist
04-24-2006, 12:34 AM
Formula-

You can't really use win odds to compare for matchups. There are plenty of all-or-nothing types who are capable of clearing and wiring a field but will fold up if challenged at all. They may be strong win candidates but not likely to run 2nd or 3rd. Likewise the seconditis and thirditis horses who frustrate win bettors can often be solid plays in the matchups. You don't have to win the race; only beat the opponent you are matched up against.

classhandicapper
04-24-2006, 09:19 AM
:ThmbUp: Formula-

You can't really use win odds to compare for matchups. There are plenty of all-or-nothing types who are capable of clearing and wiring a field but will fold up if challenged at all. They may be strong win candidates but not likely to run 2nd or 3rd. Likewise the seconditis and thirditis horses who frustrate win bettors can often be solid plays in the matchups. You don't have to win the race; only beat the opponent you are matched up against.

:ThmbUp:

Agree. It's a different game.

ezpace
04-24-2006, 11:42 PM
as posted on CJ's board sometime ago.. THATZ MY racket ;) Pinnacle boyz are sharpBUTTT some guyz here are mucho sharper IMO. their matchups on the turf .. i really like. none under 8f with exception of SA 6.5f

formula_2002
04-25-2006, 05:31 PM
as posted on CJ's board sometime ago.. THATZ MY racket ;) Pinnacle boyz are sharpBUTTT some guyz here are mucho sharper IMO. their matchups on the turf .. i really like. none under 8f with exception of SA 6.5f


Well, I'm ready to go at it with them..I have correlations of Morning lines, CJ's "pace" and "speed" figures, Jeff's "Jratings ", bris's "Prime Power" fig for over 200,000 horses...
Bring 'em on ;)

Joe M

formula_2002
04-25-2006, 08:38 PM
It's all about the odds.
Example
WED matchup
Keeneland: Race 4 - TURF ONLY
Wed 4/26 Alleged Ruler vs Foolish Cat
11:15 AM 1 Alleged Ruler -121
2 Foolish Cat 105two horse race:
AR odds are .826-1
FC odds are 1.05-1
vig=3 1/2%
Next is the hard part..
What should the odds be.

ezpace
04-25-2006, 08:57 PM
Just make them play your game and use discipline always. :) save some for me

hurrikane
04-26-2006, 07:30 AM
Joe,
are you saying you're actually going to bet money? :jump:

formula_2002
04-28-2006, 07:31 PM
Joe,
are you saying you're actually going to bet money? :jump:

H.. I would love to..
But a few things still in my way.
Like the 2nd at Hol today, 4/28
The match up is

Fri 4/28 Coach Ted vs Proud Joe
7:00 PM 35 Coach Ted 111
36 Proud Joe -127
I make PJ a hugh overlay..How come? too good to be true kind of thing..

formula_2002
04-28-2006, 10:52 PM
H.. I would love to..
But a few things still in my way.
Like the 2nd at Hol today, 4/28
The match up is

Fri 4/28 Coach Ted vs Proud Joe
7:00 PM 35 Coach Ted 111
36 Proud Joe -127
I make PJ a hugh overlay..How come? too good to be true kind of thing..
And it was.
CT 20-1 on the ML, final odds 18-1
PJ 6-1 on the ML, final odds 14-1.
CT finished ahead of PJ

formula_2002
04-28-2006, 11:01 PM
here is another:
I make Opimian a big overlay

hol 4th
Fri 4/28 Sound And Vision vs Opimian
8:00 PM 39 Sound And Vision -132
40 Opimian 116

formula_2002
04-28-2006, 11:45 PM
here is another:
I make Opimian a big overlay

hol 4th
Fri 4/28 Sound And Vision vs Opimian
8:00 PM 39 Sound And Vision -132
40 Opimian 116
Same results as the previous play.

pick gets beaten.

I have one more in the 7th,,Lucky Stab
GN

formula_2002
04-29-2006, 08:25 AM
Actually on the night, not too crushing.
It turned out that there were four paper plays, 2 won for a $27.00 loss.
total bet was $613.

Just figured what a bet against the field is.. To beat the field your horse must..... win!!! :lol:

Koko
04-29-2006, 09:02 AM
It's all about the odds.

1 Alleged Ruler -121
2 Foolish Cat 105[/CODE]two horse race:
AR odds are .826-1
FC odds are 1.05-1
vig=3 1/2%


Where'd you get the 3 1/2 % VIG. figure Formula 2002?

formula_2002
04-29-2006, 09:34 AM
Where'd you get the 3 1/2 % VIG. figure Formula 2002?


K, example,

today's race at cdx, race #10,
last night the line was;
114 Prized Cat -125
113 Quidditch Player 109

bet 125 to win 100
or bet 100 to win 109.

bet win odds sum 1/(odds+1)
125 100 0.80 0.556
100 109 1.09 0.478
1.034
the odds on PC is 100/125=.80-1
the odds on QP is 109/100=1.09-1


the sum of the booking %'s (1/(odds+1) is 1.034
1-(1/1.034) = 3.28% vig or take-out.


The vig is varies slightly for different matchup's.

The same can be said for any complete field.
sum 1/(odds+1) for say, AQU, the sum should be about 1.18
1-(1/1.18)= 15% vig, or take-out.

That's how I would look at it.

It's the reason Pinnacle gives no rebates for the matchup bets.
Wouldn't be grand if the did!!. If they gave you the 7% rebate,you could bet both horses and make a profit. :jump: