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formula_2002
04-22-2006, 02:42 PM
I find it quite astonishing that so little discussion is devoted to meaningful, increment odds analysis.

Pace figures, speed figures, all sorts of data from Bris, Equibase, Daily Racing Form..and so on and so on, are discussed in micro-opic detail, but so little effort is devoted to the analysis of the odds.

Just look to publications by Benter, Fabricand, Quirin. They include the incremental odds analysis.

Perhaps we need a new forum, “INCREMENTAL ODDS ANALYSIS”.

Joe M
PS.This type of analysis has save me a considerable amount of money..My largest cost is the data :rolleyes:

ceejay
04-22-2006, 02:51 PM
What do you mean by "incremental odds analysis?" Things like ROI between 6- and 8-1 in a 10-horse field?

kenwoodallpromos
04-22-2006, 03:50 PM
Ainslie had an odds analysis, and the new book "early Speed" has it- but you have to understand how to interpret the more detailed analysis to make good use of them. Even Klein's the emphasis (of course) is an early speed without regard to other subjective factors. and depending on what other factors the public uses in its' handicapping or betting, a set odds table could change over time or between tracks.
But I think ball park figures are very useful- maybe that is why they are not out there too much! We do not want everyone betting based on actual "fair odds" and and accurate figures and the tracks would not want that done either!! (rerence CJ's limited sales of his figures, which are the most accurate of all).
Look at the M/L for yesterday's GGF short-field day- Richard Somers still put routine 2-1, 5-2, 3-1 odds for the top 3 horses, even in several 5-horse fields!!LOL!!
The actual final odds yesterday compared to the M/L and compared to the order of finish are quite different.

Tom
04-22-2006, 03:54 PM
Can you distinguish the difference in performance of a 3-1 shot compared to 3-1 shot that is a 75% overlay?
If not, who care - nobody is going to bet every 3-1 shot, so your results are not representative of the potential outcones.

formula_2002
04-22-2006, 04:12 PM
What do you mean by "incremental odds analysis?" Things like ROI between 6- and 8-1 in a 10-horse field?

6-1 odds, as a % of pool is 14.285%
10-1 odds, as a % of pool is 9.09 %
In my thinking, that is too large a spread to work with.
A 6.1 to a 6.9 spread is 1.33 %. That may be more meaningful.

I would like to be able to compare the incremental odds results for any horse racing system to two things.

1. The public’s win % in the various odds range were.

2. Random number generator win % in the various odds range.

Then, using a simple formula for statistical significance, determine the significance and profit potential of the system.

formula_2002
04-22-2006, 04:28 PM
(rerence CJ's limited sales of his figures, which are the most accurate of all).


With much respect for CJ and his work, I ran an increment odds ananlysis on his performance and speed figures. At this point in the study, it would appear that the speed figure is superior to the performanc figure.
There were 11,000 plays in each study.
I sent CJ a copy.

I also did a similar analysis on Jeff Platt's JCAPPER program. Amongst other thing his programs also offers a single figure along with an odds line.
That combination produced the best results I have ever been able to generate..

formula_2002
04-22-2006, 04:39 PM
Can you distinguish the difference in performance of a 3-1 shot compared to 3-1 shot that is a 75% overlay?
If not, who care - nobody is going to bet every 3-1 shot, so your results are not representative of the potential outcones.

That's another thing that interest me.
I was just working on that very thing.
I was using 4-1 horses.
Almost 15,000 horses in the range >=4<5-1 produced a lost of (as expected) 19%.
If certain on these horses were overlayed by 75% in each of the 10 cent incremental ranges between 4 and 5-1, the profit would be 44%.

But that raises the question;"What is the maxium number of these horses that can be overlayed 75% without impacting the entire range which must lose 19%? :bang:

twindouble
04-22-2006, 04:46 PM
That's another thing that interest me.
I was just working on that very thing.
I was using 4-1 horses.
Almost 15,000 horses in the range >=4<5-1 produced a lost of (as expected) 19%.
If certain on these horses were overlayed by 75% in each of the 10 cent incremental ranges between 4 and 5-1, the profit would be 44%.

But that raises the question;"What is the maxium number of these horses that can be overlayed 75% without impacting the entire range which must lose 19%? :bang:

I say, pick the winner and take from there. :D

cj
04-22-2006, 04:52 PM
With much respect for CJ and his work, I ran an increment odds ananlysis on his performance and speed figures. At this point in the study, it would appear that the speed figure is superior to the performanc figure.
There were 11,000 plays in each study.
I sent CJ a copy.

I also did a similar analysis on Jeff Platt's JCAPPER program. Amongst other thing his programs also offers a single figure along with an odds line.
That combination produced the best results I have ever been able to generate..

Joe sent me the data as he said, but I have absolutely no idea how to interpet it, or even what went into it. All I know is that for every $1 I bet, I get back about $1.07 $1.08, before rebates. All top figures are not created equal. For example, I just made my biggest bet of the day on the winner of the 8th at Pimlico, a horse that was no better than third on my figures going by the last race:

64736494-1
32http://www57.pinnaclesports.com/images/ps_plus_sign.jpg 1:29pm
22-Apr-06 22-Apr-06 Horses
Win Pimlico, Race #8
6.Pagan Moon
200.00 700.00

Yes, this is a redboard, but that is not the point of this post. Actually, in the interest of full disclosure, I had missed 15 races in a row before this one today.

Instead of incremental odds analysis, maybe incremental race analysis, breaking races up by sex, age, distance, surface, and which figures perform best in which category of races. Not only that, how about pressured races, or lone E races? Races with unknowns, such as first time starters or first time turfers? There is soooo much more to this game than what you are attempting to measure, though I do respect the effort.

kenwoodallpromos
04-22-2006, 05:42 PM
I may have mentioned this prior, but I would like to see an analysis of win payoffs (odds) in ranges of = under $6, $6-$9.99, $10-$17.99, $18-$25.99, $26 and up (or similar brackets).
Variables would be the major race conditions of distance, purse or price level, field size, post position, and win recency.
The possiblilty of longer odds horses winning to certain race conditions is the most reliable blanket angle I have run across.

Murph
04-23-2006, 08:41 AM
Ken and CJ, you are aware that you can do this type of anaylisis, based on Thorostats selections, using the past performance database, I hope. If not please check it out and let us know what you think. Does this tool help meet your needs to classify the results by ODDS?
Murph

formula_2002
04-23-2006, 09:36 AM
Ken and CJ, you are aware that you can do this type of anaylisis, based on Thorostats selections, using the past performance database, I hope. If not please check it out and let us know what you think. Does this tool help meet your needs to classify the results by ODDS?
Murph

Murph, could you post a sample of your incremental odds analysis? I'd like to see the standard deviation performance for the factors. The back up would also be helpful.

Thanks
Joe M

rrbauer
04-23-2006, 10:45 AM
I guess that the incremental odds analysis might make for some good academic exercises. I'm wondering that given the amount of late money that shows up long past the "who should I bet" decision-time-window; how practical is having the knowledge?

Anybody?

Murph
04-23-2006, 11:22 AM
Murph, could you post a sample of your incremental odds analysis? I'd like to see the standard deviation performance for the factors. The back up would also be helpful.

Thanks
Joe M

Hello Joe,
I can post up somthing similar to what Ken is asking about later today. In the meantime our site is available to you for an e-mail address. We won't spam ya, promise. If you are busy or whatever, I'll post later with a bit of what I look at with a screenshot. Here is a thread with an example of the input form and sample output. This example isn't adjusted for odds, though you can see where the option is available.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=261908#post261908

First I have some chores to do this afternoon, let's see - KILL ivy, attack lilac bush and dead prune the roses - then mow the yard. I'll be back around dark! ;)

BTW - I couldn't log into the WAR ROOM Fri afternoon between 4 and 4:30 or so before I gave up. I will try again tonite to see what's up with that and let PA know if I got a problem. Anyone else get this lately?
Murph

kenwoodallpromos
04-23-2006, 02:27 PM
Thanks for the pointer to your selection odds- I guess I am just lazy, was looking for compiled redboard stats!

Murph- if someone wanted to pay you for the use of your power rating (and include a link to your site) to market along with other non- DRF/Equibase/Trackmaster ratings/figures with raceday program information, would you consider it?
I'm sure you know better than I who the "independents" are.
Is anyone already doing that?
To get back on topic, maybe statistic could be included with the race header as to % of winners for that particular type of race broken down by odds brackets? I do not believe thast would violate ANY Actual copyright laws and would promote alternative numbers maker such as yourself.
Or you and opther could do what NTRA did- form a non-profit company to market it!

Murph
04-24-2006, 08:04 AM
I will have to attach the HTML file to this note as I cannot format the spreadsheet into any of the tags. I don't know why, as I've seen others post nice looking code into the forums - I cannot! All I get is a jumbled mess or an error. I get tired of having to learn an entire process everytime I want to do something differently. It likely will take hours of time for me to learn how to post code into these forums. Kinda suks all of the fun right out of it.

The attached file shows an odds breakdown for all dirt races over the past 30 days at Santa Anita. The website is available for your own research as I mentioned before. The combinations you can use for your queries are quite varied. Please add your comments.

Murph

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<td class=xl1528182></td>
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<td class=xl2428182>Avg $Won</td>
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<td class=xl2428182>Cost</td>
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<td height=17 class=xl2528182 style='height:12.75pt'>Top 1 Horses</td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
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<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>class</td>
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<td class=xl2228182 x:num>28</td>
<td class=xl2228182>23%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$1.85</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$217</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$234</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$17</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-7%</td>
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<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>pace</td>
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<td class=xl2228182 x:num>28</td>
<td class=xl2228182>23%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$1.22</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$143</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$234</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$91</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-38%</td>
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<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>power</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>117</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>36</td>
<td class=xl2228182>30%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$2.19</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$256</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$234</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$22</td>
<td class=xl2328182>9%</td>
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<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>connection</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>117</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>31</td>
<td class=xl2228182>26%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$2.22</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$260</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$234</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$26</td>
<td class=xl2328182>10%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2528182 style='height:12.75pt'>Top 2 Horses</td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>class</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>117</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>45</td>
<td class=xl2228182>38%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$3.30</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$387</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$468</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$81</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-17%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>pace</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>117</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>51</td>
<td class=xl2228182>43%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$3.53</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$413</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$468</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$55</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-11%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>power</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>117</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>55</td>
<td class=xl2228182>47%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$3.38</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$396</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$468</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$72</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-15%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>connection</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>117</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>50</td>
<td class=xl2228182>42%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$3.14</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$368</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$468</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$100</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-21%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl1528182 style='height:12.75pt'></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>Exclude Longshots</td>
<td class=xl2228182>YES</td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>Winner Price &lt;=</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$6.0</td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2528182 style='height:12.75pt'>Rating</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Races</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Winners</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Win%</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Avg $Won</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Won</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Cost</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Profit</td>
<td class=xl2428182>ROI</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2528182 style='height:12.75pt'>Top 1 Horses</td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>class</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>43</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>19</td>
<td class=xl2228182>44%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$1.64</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$70</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$86</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$16</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-17%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>pace</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>43</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>20</td>
<td class=xl2228182>46%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$1.74</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$75</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$86</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$11</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-12%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>power</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>43</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>23</td>
<td class=xl2228182>53%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$1.98</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$85</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$86</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$1</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-1%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>connection</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>43</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>16</td>
<td class=xl2228182>37%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$1.51</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$65</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$86</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$21</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-24%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2528182 style='height:12.75pt'>Top 2 Horses</td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>class</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>43</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>26</td>
<td class=xl2228182>60%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$2.30</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$99</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$172</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$73</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-42%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>pace</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>43</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>30</td>
<td class=xl2228182>69%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$2.73</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$117</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$172</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$55</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-31%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>power</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>43</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>34</td>
<td class=xl2228182>79%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$3.19</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$137</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$172</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$35</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-20%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>connection</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>43</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>28</td>
<td class=xl2228182>65%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$2.65</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$114</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$172</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$58</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-33%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl1528182 style='height:12.75pt'></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>Exclude Favorites</td>
<td class=xl2228182>YES</td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>Winner Price &gt;=</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$6.0</td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>Exclude Longshots</td>
<td class=xl2228182>YES</td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>Winner Price &lt;=</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$12.0</td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2528182 style='height:12.75pt'>Rating</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Races</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Winners</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Win%</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Avg $Won</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Won</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Cost</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Profit</td>
<td class=xl2428182>ROI</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2528182 style='height:12.75pt'>Top 1 Horses</td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>class</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>45</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>6</td>
<td class=xl2228182>13%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$1.19</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$53</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$90</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$37</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-40%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>pace</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>45</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>7</td>
<td class=xl2228182>15%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$1.20</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$54</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$90</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$36</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-40%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>power</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>45</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>10</td>
<td class=xl2228182>22%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$1.80</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$81</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$90</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$9</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-8%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>connection</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>45</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>10</td>
<td class=xl2228182>22%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$1.80</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$81</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$90</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$9</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-8%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2528182 style='height:12.75pt'>Top 2 Horses</td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>class</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>45</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>14</td>
<td class=xl2228182>31%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$2.67</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$120</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$180</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$60</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-32%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>pace</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>45</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>17</td>
<td class=xl2228182>37%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$3.05</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$137</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$180</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$43</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-23%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>power</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>45</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>18</td>
<td class=xl2228182>40%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$3.18</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$143</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$180</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$37</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-20%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>connection</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>45</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>17</td>
<td class=xl2228182>37%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$3.11</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$140</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$180</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$40</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-21%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl1528182 style='height:12.75pt'></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>Exclude Favorites</td>
<td class=xl2228182>YES</td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>Winner Price &gt;=</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$12.0</td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>Distance</td>
<td class=xl2228182>All</td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2528182 style='height:12.75pt'>Rating</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Races</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Winners</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Win%</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Avg $Won</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Won</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Cost</td>
<td class=xl2428182>Profit</td>
<td class=xl2428182>ROI</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2528182 style='height:12.75pt'>Top 1 Horses</td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>class</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>33</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>3</td>
<td class=xl2228182>9%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$2.81</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$93</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$66</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$27</td>
<td class=xl2328182>39%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>pace</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>33</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>1</td>
<td class=xl2228182>3%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$0.41</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$14</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$66</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-$52</td>
<td class=xl2228182>-78%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>power</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>33</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>3</td>
<td class=xl2228182>9%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$2.74</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$90</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$66</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$24</td>
<td class=xl2328182>36%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>connection</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>33</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>8</td>
<td class=xl2228182>24%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$4.18</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$138</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$66</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$72</td>
<td class=xl2328182>107%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2528182 style='height:12.75pt'>Top 2 Horses</td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
<td class=xl1528182></td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>class</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>33</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>6</td>
<td class=xl2228182>18%</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$5.26</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$174</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$132</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$42</td>
<td class=xl2328182>31%</td>
</tr>
<tr height=17 style='height:12.75pt'>
<td height=17 class=xl2628182 style='height:12.75pt'>pace</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>33</td>
<td class=xl2228182 x:num>4</td>
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<td class=xl2228182>$4.18</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$138</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$132</td>
<td class=xl2228182>$6</td>
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Murph
04-24-2006, 08:21 AM
I cannot attach html or .xls files to a message either. I cannot input html, code or php to format correctly either. If anyone is interested in the past performance database tool, please go to http://www.thorostats.com (http://www.thorostats.com/).

Apologies for my posting incompentency. Murph

PaceAdvantage
04-24-2006, 01:55 PM
All you need to do is use the html tags for html....

here is some source code from this page:

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<html dir="ltr" lang="en">
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<meta name="description" content="Pace Advantage: Devoted to Thoroughbred Horse Racing, including handicapping, news, reviews, message boards, forum, handicapping software, and more!" />
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formula_2002
04-24-2006, 04:40 PM
I guess that the incremental odds analysis might make for some good academic exercises. I'm wondering that given the amount of late money that shows up long past the "who should I bet" decision-time-window; how practical is having the knowledge?

Anybody?
Richard, that is a very valid point.
I'm looking at an excel file of 14891 horses in the odds range >=4-1 and <5-1.
A 30% overlay in each of the 10 cent increments, 4.10-1, 4.20-1,,,,would return a max profit of 23 cents on the dollar , down to a loss of 13 cents on the dollar (It's a chaotic world inside of those incremental odds :rolleyes: ).
Twenty three cents can be eliminated in one flash to the tote board!!
So right you are...

Of course, If as Tom has suggested, you could get a 70% overlay, then the range of profits is between 13 cents and 60 cents..
What to catch a falling knife? :bang:

formula_2002
04-24-2006, 05:08 PM
Joe sent me the data as he said, but I have absolutely no idea how to interpet it, or even what went into it.



CJ, at the very least, you may have noted that the top speed fig, between odds >=5-1 and <19-1 returned an roi of .98.
No small thing for results that were never back fitted and use but one single figure, your speed figure.

The results are based on 3600 plays, dirt races only, last race had to also be on the dirt, and ties in speed figure went to the highest odds. If the horses last race was not on the dirt but his previous race was, I did not use that dirt figure.

But the two most meaningfull columns not shown are the public's win % in each odds range and the standard units..getting a bit lazy in my old age, but I will get it done shortly.

Joe M

sjk
04-24-2006, 06:11 PM
I think an interesting question is raised by Tom's post as to the optimal overlay requirement. I use 80% which is close to what he is doing.

I have never evaluated the optimal overlay requirement by incremental odds range. Perhaps I should.

formula_2002
04-24-2006, 07:30 PM
sjk,
In my data base, 14891 horses in the range >=4<5
won, on average 15% of their races for a loss of 18%.
Say you played them at an overlay of 80%.

I take that to mean .15x1.8=.27. You would win 27% of the time.

.27x 4.45-( 1-.27)= 47% profit.

the standard units would be sqrt(.15x(1-.15)x14891))=44.
that means that most any mortal could win (.15x14891)+- 44, or, say a max of 2277 races.

but you would win .27x 14891 = 4020 races.

therefore, (4020-2277)/44 = 40 times a standard unit.

4 times a standard unit has the probability of .49997.
I can not comprehend 40 standard units.

Guys like Bentner, Quirin and Fabricand seem to be the thrilled when they can prove 2.5 standard units.

Joe M

sjk
04-24-2006, 07:44 PM
Joe,

Part of the reason for using a overlay percentage requirement is that my odds line is certainly not perfect. Horses which I would bet in the 4-4.9 to 1 range win at 22%, not 27%.

Also I would only play about 4% of the horses in that odds range since the others would not meet the overlay requirement.

In practice most of my bets are exactas rather than low odds horses such as in your example.

traveler
04-25-2006, 08:00 PM
Not sure if this fits in with what your talking about but I have wanted to be able to analyze the top 3 low odds horses. I have only seen programs that anlalyze IV's for the winner based upon a certain factor or handicapping profile. Scott based at least some of his work around the idea that one of the 3 lo odds horses win 2 of 3 races. I know field size, class etc may make this statistc vary but I have looked at it and it seems to have some validity. I would like to see some analysis where for example you line up the field 1-8 by odds and you can see that the low odds horse ihas the top speed figure, but has a low class number and is an S type horse on an early speed favoring track. Chances are the public can only see the speed figure and are throwing their money away.

I started building a data base in February but hand input is tedious and I am kinda lazy and look at computers all day at work.This is how I envision incremental odds analysis - studying factors at the odds and odds rankings. I guess it is back to hand input. Just downloaded Open Offiices free suite with a dbase, time to check it out. Openoffice.org I think it was if anyone is interested.

stats725
04-27-2011, 10:38 AM
tom you are right, however if all horses at 15-1 and up lose 25% betting to win and all horses at 6/5 or less lose 7 % to place , which group will be easier to improve to a positive expectation ?. This is a loaded , highly debatable question. If you were hired to become the manager of 2 business in the same type of business , that both did 10 million in sales last year , both had 200 employees, both were similar but one lost -25% and the other Lost 7% , which one might be easier to turn into a profitable business, I guess you could say , ALL FACTORS BEING SOMEWHAT EQUAL, and then you TOM , could SAY '' THey NEVER ARE IN HORSE RACING,'' AND YOU WOULD BE SOMEWHAT CORRECT! BEst wishes , Steve

SchagFactorToWin
04-27-2011, 11:18 AM
I guess that the incremental odds analysis might make for some good academic exercises. I'm wondering that given the amount of late money that shows up long past the "who should I bet" decision-time-window; how practical is having the knowledge?

Anybody?
I tried a 3 month odds-based test. Theoretically, I would have been able to increase profits by 25%. But the late changes effected the results just enough to result in a loss, rather than a gain. They zigged when I zagged just often enough to ruin it.

Dave Schwartz
04-27-2011, 11:52 AM
tom you are right, however if all horses at 15-1 and up lose 25% betting to win and all horses at 6/5 or less lose 7 % to place , which group will be easier to improve to a positive expectation ?. This is a loaded , highly debatable question.

Nice to see this old thread resurrected.

The correct answer is the 15/1 and up group.

While the low-odds group is closer to even, the high odds group will have more variance and, hence, will be easier to improve.

As an example, as yourself which is more likely to produce a good bet:

A. The 1st round of the NCAA Basketball Tournament
B. The finals of the NCAA Basketball Tournament

It is much easier to find a price, even on the tournament favorite when the odds are longer. Perhaps a better way to say it is to say that the public is more likely to error as the odds are higher.

TrifectaMike
04-28-2011, 10:30 AM
Nice to see this old thread resurrected.

The correct answer is the 15/1 and up group.

While the low-odds group is closer to even, the high odds group will have more variance and, hence, will be easier to improve. Although this is true, the degree of improvement is also much greater.

As an example, as yourself which is more likely to produce a good bet:

A. The 1st round of the NCAA Basketball Tournament
B. The finals of the NCAA Basketball Tournament

It is much easier to find a price, even on the tournament favorite when the odds are longer. Perhaps a better way to say it is to say that the public is more likely to error as the odds are higher. Unfortunately the error is on the wrong side of the curve...lowering of the odds

Proper discrimination on high probability horses is the quickest path to profitability, but it is not the only way nor is it optimal.

Mike (Dr Beav)

Dave Schwartz
04-28-2011, 10:48 AM
Totally agree!