How would you market your Selection Sheet? [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Koko

04-21-2006, 10:23 PM

I've been toying with the idea of a rather revolutionary tout sheet/site.
One that is profitable and shows the actual ROI daily, bi-monthly, quarterly and lifetime, broken down by type of bet and track, rather than point out what we hit yesterday and hope the subscriber forgets that the ROI is negative. I'd probably do three or four major/midsize tracks.

Also, since I foresee it's profitability, I'd have no problem giving it away for a month or so. I've considered three approaches and ruled one of those three out.

After speaking to the trackmaster people and hearing what the revenue to be expected from their split would be (a few hundred a month is the ballpark figure), I ruled that approach out.

The two remaining methods would be:

1. Selling at Delmar/SurfsideRaceplace (simulcasting facility with 1,000 daily attendance) and the five or so good-size Indian Casino Racebooks locally and then perhaps going nationwide by emailing the national simulcasting site the daily sheet and having them print them up and hopefully pay me a FAIR cut of what they sell.

2. Setting up a website and advertising on forums, simulcast programs, and perhaps an emailing campaign to horse bettor lists or various sorts. I'd then sell the picks through the site using Paypal or whatever pay. processing method.

I know some of you are somewhat in the same business or have been and might not want to share any valuable advice, but if anyone has any input, expert or otherwise, or even a few good-natured ribbings, I'd love to have all input. Thanks in advance.

douglasw32

04-21-2006, 11:09 PM

Just my opinion...I would never buy a tip sheet from an email or a website no matter what proof was shown, if I am on my PC and the web I am allready aware of way too much.

But, If I walk into Finger Lakes or Saratoga, I am buying everything laid in front of me.

Of course I am just a weekend warrior.

BeatTheChalk

04-21-2006, 11:30 PM

Koko

04-21-2006, 11:50 PM

Your ideas for marketing the product sound good to me .. But I am ALREADY
SOLD ! Your presentation is excellent ...
Put me down as your first customer for the one month trial or for whatever
you decide to offer. If your selections are good .. your reputation will
spread. Look forward to seeing your product .. And hope to send in all
Glowing reports of winnings.
Earl ..

Did I mention that I do much better with sizzle recipes than actual steak preparation?:p Trial? Like in free? When did I mention anything like that?:p

Now aren't my comments proof enough that I have what it takes to make it in the Tout World? Credimobility, whas dat?

the_fat_man

04-22-2006, 12:13 AM

Damn, I envy you, KOOKOO

When I finally get to the point where I can show a profit at the game, like you, rather than actually betting my own money and getting that incredible sense of accomplishment that all of us strive for, I'd probably follow your lead and sell my selections instead.

Luck's on my side, however, as I'm fat and lazy and can't find the motivation to actually do the work required to be a success at the game. So I can never get to where you are presently.

Let me ask you an insider's question: think I can just skip the part where I do the work and actually show a profit betting and just put out a sheet? I mean, so many sheets out there, and every one of them is like gold.

Now, if I did the work to show a profit
why do more work to sell a sheet? (Makes no sense to someone fat and lazy.)

If I didn't do the work required to show a profit (or just flat out couldn't) then
why not do the work to sell a sheet? (who cares whether I can show a profit or not)

Am I losing you here, KooKoo?

Put me down for the free month as well.

There's nothing I like more than betting my money when I don't have an opinion. In other words, betting the selections of others. Now, that's fun and a surefire way to riches. Not only am I fat and lazy but I also need the action.

Johnicard

04-22-2006, 12:25 AM

PaceAdvantage

04-22-2006, 12:42 AM

Johnicard, we get it....enough already....any more UNSOLICITED posts about your website or your picks either get moved to the harness section or deleted because of their repetitious nature.

You are free to purchase advertising if you want to promote your website and/or your cause any further.....

Koko

04-22-2006, 12:43 AM

Damn, I envy you, KOOKOO

Now, if I did the work to show a profit
why do more work to sell a sheet? (Makes no sense to someone fat and lazy.)

If I didn't do the work required to show a profit (or just flat out couldn't) then
why not do the work to sell a sheet? (who cares whether I can show a profit or not)

Hey Fat Fatty,

At least you're razzing me with some cute, original humor, I like that. But for those who would like this question answered honestly.

Putting out the sheet is very little work relative to doing the work to get profitable, so it's simply an economy of scale issue. If you've handicapped for your own profitability why not enhance things by handicapping for others for pay for the work you're going to do anyway, presuming that you're not going to destroy your mutuals to a great extent. When I'm selling 200,000 like Howard Ruff was doing with his Investment Newsletters in the 70's and 80's then I'll worry about the prices I'm getting.

As far as selling something that doesn't benefit the consumer, well that's something I'll never do in my life, unless I get so hungry that I sell my soul for a bowl of porrage, which I'd like to think will never happen, but I'm not so blind to think that God wouldn't test me if I made boastful claims in that regard, so I won't.

So, why struggle to get profitable when you can make money selling an unprofitable tout sheet with so much less work? It's great reasoning for many, as we can see. It's just not MY BAG, for the reason above and also because I have a certain amount of pride about what I attach my name to, and that's why I'm willing to show my ROI, which is a rather unusual move in the business.

PaceAdvantage

04-22-2006, 12:49 AM

Koko

04-22-2006, 12:51 AM

I have a free website for harness picks that does return a profit. Those pricks at AXCIS/Trackmaster are determined to suppress any competition. Take a look at catpicks.net and you will see that my picks beat the Trackmaster tip sheets. Let me know if you want to join the fight against the monopoly AXCIS/Trackmaster has established in the handicapping business.

Johnicard,

I've read your posts on this issue.
Are they the only provider of Harness Info?
Are they harassing other Harness Selection Sheets/Sites that buy their data and use it to produce their product?

Sorry Bro,

Even if you convince me that they are restricting trade/being monpolistic (which you may well be able to do), I have too many things in life that supercede my need to see jusice done on that particular battlefield.

Steve 'StatMan'

04-22-2006, 01:21 AM

Koko, depending on where your located, and where you'd like to sell, the tracks and their policies are likely the main issue/sticky point. Some limit the number of tip sheets they sell (everybody and their brother wants to sell tip sheets, though fewer are dependable enough to do the work day in and day out). So there may be some 'control' issues and you may or may not be able to get on the stand.

If there is more than 1 betting outlet, like OTB's, getting them around town is an issue, and with gas prices rising, an expensive proposition.

The tracks are also in it to make money, or at least recoup the wages of their sales people. Don't be surprised, esp. if the track employs the sellers of the tip sheets/programs/forms, that they'll expect a good portion, perhaps half of the sale price of your sheet. They own the tracks and/or parlors, so they end up having the leverage. Our local tracks and parlors do not allow individuals to sell tip sheets on their premisis. They control all sales on their grounds.

You may be better off with a website and PayPal and avoid all those issues, but then you need to get the word out, perhaps advertising in the local market.

Good Luck if you do it. Sounds like you're focusing on So. Cal area, so fortunately you won't be moving into an area where my employer already serves. Where attendance and handle is declining, the tip sheet business continues to get more difficult. If you have others competeting against you that your don't already know as friends, sorry, but your competitors won't roll out the welcome wagon, to say the least.

Good Luck if you decide to go through with it. Personally, I'm glad I got hired at existing, well-established company, and avoid having to directly battle the established big-guys to stay in existence. (Sorry folks, I know we're not hiring for that foreseable future.)

Overlay

04-22-2006, 04:05 AM

If your ROI and your performance is that good, it will decline in a hurry as you take on more and more customers....

Hell, you don't even need to take on a large number of customers, as a choice FEW will do some nice damage to your mutuels if they are big enough bettors.....

I think I'm in the fat man's camp on this one....if you really are as good as you claim, you will get hammered eventually....

True, unless he would take the approach of selling his information in the form of a fair-odds line (on spot plays, full race fields, exotic wagers, or all of the above), so customers could lay off if any particular horse or combination got bet down too low.

xfile

04-22-2006, 05:14 AM

It all comes down to:

"Those who can - win"
"Those that can't-tout"

:cool:

Overlay

04-22-2006, 05:22 AM

It all comes down to:

"Those who can - win"
"Those that can't-tout"

But if you can tout without hurting the odds (or. more precisely, without hurting your ability to find a bet where the odds are in your favor), why not win and tout at the same time?

xfile

04-22-2006, 05:28 AM

But if you can tout without hurting the odds, why not win and tout at the same time?

2 outcomes are possible
1) you sell enough sheets to make it worthwhile = your odds go down
2) you don't sell enough sheets to make it worthwhile = what's the point?

Overlay

04-22-2006, 05:40 AM

2 outcomes are possible
1) you sell enough sheets to make it worthwhile = your odds go down
2) you don't sell enough sheets to make it worthwhile = what's the point?

That was what I was referring to as far as basing the sheet on fair odds, so that you (and your customers) would have a sound basis for laying off a selection if its odds got bet down below fair value, or, alternatively, betting on another solid contender in the same race with odds that are above fair value.

Koko

04-22-2006, 07:06 AM

I would plan on giving exact betting selections on Win, exacta, P3, Pi4, trifecta, so theoretically everyone would be playing the same selections, which would hurt the mutuals more than the way overlay suggests doing it.

But I think the fear of the mutuals being affected is largely overblown. The typical buyer, at least at the Delmar simulcasting facility (one of the wealthiest areas in the nation) is probably a similiar profile to the typical attendee who bets a total of $250-300 a day. No doubt 10 subscribers that were playing $10 Tri's could start to hurt you perhaps.

That is a factor that just came to mind, if you share revenue with the simul. sites, then you have to sell more sheets to get the same revenue while getting your mutuals twice as damaged, maybe the site is the way to go, although I happen to know that they would welcome a quality product at the Delmar Simul. site and a couple of the Indian spots as the quality of what's offered there now is typical Tout garbage.

Koko

04-22-2006, 07:33 AM

I think I'm in the fat man's camp on this one....if you really are as good as you claim, you will get hammered eventually....

PA,

I kind of forget, how good did I claim I am again?

xfile

04-22-2006, 09:39 AM

Let's see how you do Koko. Post a few of your selections on the board.

kenwoodallpromos

04-22-2006, 02:53 PM

If the only people who buy picks demand a positive ROI daily good luck if you make picks on entire cards.
If you are figuring ROI for all bet types you will be spending so much time figuring ROI you will not have time to handicap!
I suppose most picks services or picks cappers are just regurgitating what their computer tells them to pick, same program other services are using. In that case you just need to out-market them without a big name or access to outlets. Good luck.
IMO you have to show at first glance something different and better in the way you pick or use a unique angle or system that is profitable for all types of bets. Good luck.
IMO there is 3 things I think the others do not have: value or acceptacle odds for each horse; up-to-the-minute adjustments of picks based on factors like weather, scratches, etc.; and a choice or variety of "figures" to use. For example, displaying multiple figures that are those other than Equibase-DRF-Beyer (the smaller outfits), and/ or inventing a totally new type of "figure", like for current form.

kev

04-22-2006, 03:34 PM

What about "The Wizard" hasn't he been around for awhile, how does he do it?

kenwoodallpromos

04-22-2006, 06:07 PM

First of all, reading this thread made me realize what people go for- anything dealing with numbers, bettors or the public; and a known name.
Short of winning a national handicapping contest, choose a name the bring to mind horseracing and success, but nor sounding like every other name (I'm sorry but IMO the name KOKO does not sound that serious as to be on a money-making sheet!). Maybe something like "Black Pencil Picks" or "Repeat ROI".
Since we are in the era of simulcast and internet, I would feign some selectivity by limiting races per card but selling more tracks; for example, All Stakes and straight maidens; plus Claiming races, or Sprints, maybe covering ALL the "major" tracks in SO. Ca., NY, MD, Il, Ky, and Tx.
maybe that way your potential customers will figure you you have expertise with those as opposed to claiming to be an expert at all tracks and races. You can offer a money-back guarantee if your ROI is negative for that buy.

Jeff P

04-22-2006, 06:49 PM

posted by PA - If your ROI and your performance is that good, it will decline in a hurry as you take on more and more customers....

Hell, you don't even need to take on a large number of customers, as a choice FEW will do some nice damage to your mutuels if they are big enough bettors.....

I think I'm in the fat man's camp on this one....if you really are as good as you claim, you will get hammered eventually.... Truer words have never been spoken.

-jp

.

Koko

04-22-2006, 08:50 PM

posted by PA - Truer words have never been spoken.

-jp

.

Any particular software seller or sheet distributor that we can point to as an example of how their mutuals were soon severely damaged after distributing their data?

Indulto

04-22-2006, 09:03 PM

Since we are in the era of simulcast and internet, I would feign some selectivity by limiting races per card but selling more tracks; for example, All Stakes and straight maidens; plus Claiming races, or Sprints, maybe covering ALL the "major" tracks in SO. Ca., NY, MD, Il, Ky, and Tx. maybe that way your potential customers will figure you you have expertise with those as opposed to claiming to be an expert at all tracks and races. You can offer a money-back guarantee if your ROI is negative for that buy.KW,
Isn't the way it works is that you just don't have to pay for the next card? ;)

The most reliable newspaper selectors make selections for a single track. IMO Jeff Siegal's success was in part due to insider connections. Perhaps Bob Selvin who posts here can provide some insight. I was most impressed with Gordon Jones' public selections in the old Herald Examiner, but I got the impression his top pick wasn't always on top.

The only winning player year in and year out, who I knew personally, did not handicap horses, but rather public selectors. He maintained a database of handicappers from various publications (all coded) and the conditions, selections, final odds, results, and payoffs for each race at tracks of interest.

He could tell you who the top selectors were for each event category by % and ROI, who was currently hot for each, what % of the time they had the winner on top or in the top three, and some very subtle and original indicators he might not appreciate my expounding on. That said, he was hardly secretive about his disdain for people who thought they could predict winners consistently based on real or abstracted measurements of a horse’s performance or jockey/trainer statistics.

What started on this line of thinking was the fact that bookies made money because they assumed most peoples opinions were wrong and based on faulty information. So where better could he get other bettor opinions to study than the newspapers?

He claimed the greatest benefit his tool provided was predicting levels of uncertainty, or perhaps predictability, for a given event suggesting when to pass and when to hit the "ALL" button. His favorite wager was initially the EX, later the TRI, and eventually the Super.

He thought he might get even better results if he had the selections of both Brown and Friedman in the mix. When I saw him last, he was still not a "professional" or, at least, playing the horses was not his primary activity, but he was considering joining a P6 syndicate. If he reads this, and is still alive and well, I hope he will call me from his new phone number. Given his luck and mine, it will be from his lawyer’s office. :D

PaceAdvantage

04-22-2006, 09:14 PM

PA,

I kind of forget, how good did I claim I am again?

This was enough for me:

I've been toying with the idea of a rather revolutionary tout sheet/site.
One that is profitable....

PaceAdvantage

04-22-2006, 09:16 PM

Any particular software seller or sheet distributor that we can point to as an example of how their mutuals were soon severely damaged after distributing their data?

Most of them SUCK, or are so vague that they leave a lot of the interpretation to the user. That's why they don't get hammered. If you are truly GOOD, you will eventually get taken down.....it's the nature of the beast. It HAS to happen, IF you are good.....

The way your proposed tout sheet is going to function, if I am reading you right, is that you are going to give fairly strict and detailed wagers, which will only serve to kill your prices quicker, as there is little left for the user to do but just go bet what you say to bet....

Koko

04-22-2006, 11:05 PM

Most of them SUCK, or are so vague that they leave a lot of the interpretation to the user. That's why they don't get hammered. If you are truly GOOD, you will eventually get taken down.....it's the nature of the beast. It HAS to happen, IF you are good.....

The way your proposed tout sheet is going to function, if I am reading you right, is that you are going to give fairly strict and detailed wagers, which will only serve to kill your prices quicker, as there is little left for the user to do but just go bet what you say to bet....

PA,

You're accurate in describing how I intend to specifically note what to bet and the amount to bet based on a theoretical $2,000 bankroll or some similiar number, so the larger or smaller bettor can scale up or down. No doubt ALMOST ALL, if not all of them suck or they'd be proudly displaying their accurate ROI figures as I intend to do, rather than screaming about the $19 exacta they hit yesterday.

I was of the mindset that you guys were simply overconvinced of the effect of subscribers on the mutuals. After doing a little math on the Santa Anita Tri pools on a weekend day, I must say I'm reconsidering the notion, particularly since short fields would probably prevent me from releasing too many California Picks except for Del Mar, so I'd be playing in smaller ponds so to speak where the effects are greatly magnified as you can see below.

Here's the math from a $200,000 NET Trifecta Pool presuming 50 subscribers each buying a $2 Winning Trifecta Ticket.

$1 Tri Payouts
Before After
Subscribers Subscribers

$400 Payout $333

$1,000 Payout $666

And again, considering I'd be much more interested in tracks with larger fields but smaller mutuals, there could be big trouble ahead indeed.

Hawthorne $125,000 NET POOL

$400 Payout $300

$1,000 Payout $555

Charlestown $20,000 NET POOL

$400 Payout $133

$1,000 Payout $166

Granted these figures are real ugly. On the other hand, presuming I sell my customers online, on the benefit of using Pinnacle and half use this option rather than feed the mutual pools, then the damage isn't quite as great, but then Pinnacle may well take those accounts at some point, assuming I'm profitable enough, and do a regular dump into the mutual pools.

Maybe I will leave the touting to the people who do it best, those with nothing to lose, so to speak.

On the surface, a solution would be to have fewer, but bigger clients who all see the immense benefit of playing through Pinnacle, but again, Pinnacle is not likely to sit by and have a group of good sized accounts tap them heavily, are they? Anyone think they have a GOOD feel on that question?

Jeff P

04-23-2006, 12:20 AM

posted by Koko - Any particular software seller or sheet distributor that we can point to as an example of how their mutuals were soon severely damaged after distributing their data? Me.

-jp

.

Koko

04-23-2006, 12:48 AM

posted by Koko - Me.

-jp

.

Ok Jeff,

Were you not aware of this eventuality beforehand? When you discovered this phenomenon, why not pull the plug, after all you didn't promise your clients you'd provide so many upgrades for so many years did you?

Would you number current users above 100 if that's not too proprietary a figure to disclose?

Jeff P

04-23-2006, 06:23 AM

posted by Koko - Were you not aware of this eventuality beforehand? When you discovered this phenomenon, why not pull the plug... In the beginning I never would have imagined this phenomenon could have come as quickly and as drastically as it did. Last year, when I first started selling copies of JCapper I was approached by a handful of individuals who, having read and heard good things about me, asked me to sell them my own picks instead of the program. At first I didn't want to do this. What can I say? I was naive and reluctantly agreed to give it a try.

I published a daily report at a special page at my site. This report was updated for scratches several times a day and had my own selections on it - the same horses I played each day myself. These horses had always been flat bet profitable in the win pool - not because they were locks - but because they have hidden positives and are generally ugly enough on paper that the public is consistently afraid to bet them.

None of my subscribers were what you could call typical horse players. Each was a genuine success in some area of life. Some were business owners, some were execs for Fortune 500 companies, a few were successful market investors, and one or two were (from what I could tell after lengthy conversations with them) professional horse and sports players. The one thing they all had in common was that they were all really busy. Instead of running another software program they opted instead to pay for my time to handicap and make picks for them.

At first this endeavor was a win/win type of thing for all involved. The selections, while not locks, were of a high quality and paid well when they won. And through word of mouth only - my client list began to grow. As it grew, the mutuel prices started to come down a little. But I kind of expected that. And for several months the drop in prices was even tolerable.

Then, sometime during last summer's Saratoga meet, I either picked up the wrong client, or some of my clients started to get a little too greedy. I started noticing a very disturbing pattern on days when I published a report vs days when I didn't publish a report. On days when I published a report, when the first flash of betting would appear for a race, a lot of the horses picked on my sheet would open with 2k to 5k of win money already riding on them. Understand that almost all of these horses were 6-1 and up on the morning line. For the first several minutes of betting, my horse would be something like 8/5 and the actual morning line favorite would be somewhere close to 9/2. It was obvious to me that someone was early bird betting and hammering my horses. For a few months this seemed almost tolerable. The public would adjust around the early bird betting and as the late money would come in my horses would drift up to 8-1 to 15-1 or so. But as time went on I noticed that this trend just got worse and worse. The result was that my horses ultimately were paying less than half of what I would normally expect. You have to understand that I have a data history of several hundred thousand races over the past decade or so to go from. It was extremely obvious to me what was happening. On days when I didn't publish a report these same types of plays paid right in line with their historical averages.

There was no getting around it. Depressed mutuels on my selections were not even close to being offset by subscription money coming in. Even more obvious was that the longer I continued to publish the wider the gap was becoming. At the end of January this year I decided enough was enough. I pulled the plug and stopped publishing a report.

All of this from only a dozen or so subscribers - although some were obviously pretty heavy hitters.

-jp

.

Koko

04-23-2006, 09:59 AM

Jeff,

Thanks for posting your experience in that vein. Interesting, and insightful. I appreciate it. Whether you have a few good paying large bettors or a bunch of smaller bettors who will pay less for your information, either way, specific information, if good, will be acted on enough to show a damaging effect I guess.

PaceAdvantage

04-23-2006, 07:13 PM

either way, specific information, if good, will be acted on enough to show a damaging effect I guess.

How can it not? It's the nature of the pari-mutuel system....

Koko

04-23-2006, 10:38 PM

How can it not? It's the nature of the pari-mutuel system....

No one argued that it wouldn't affect prices. The point was the magnitude of the damage. Were I only giving win selections in mid/major markets the damage would quite likely be moderate unless I had a goodly number of quite large players.

skate

04-24-2006, 03:02 PM

i can see touting horses" as a fun thing".

but you do work against yourself.

now if you really want to make a living while touting, get into the stocks and bonds.
i saw where one person had a price, with three ranges per month. $1000, $2000 , both were sold out and then we have the $10,000/per mo. which was still open.
coarse if the guys real good, he/she makes money from the info and the stocks also go up, which he also owns.

give it a try. Penn Nat., done real well.

skate

PaceAdvantage

04-24-2006, 03:51 PM

When it comes to stocks and stock picks, it works the same way as horse picks, even though you would THINK having lots of people play your "pick" in the market would be a good thing....it's not...

Koko

04-24-2006, 07:12 PM

When it comes to stocks and stock picks, it works the same way as horse picks, even though you would THINK having lots of people play your "pick" in the market would be a good thing....it's not...

PA,

That all depends.

There was a landmark case brought back in the mid 80's that freed investment newsletter publishers from necessarily having to register with the SEC as an investment advisor.

If you register as an investment advisor, then there are certain regulations regarding informing clients what you hold with regards to your picks, however as I remember you are still allowed to hold securities which you then recommend after your purchase.

If you are not registered as an investment advisor then you don't have to tell what you're holding.

In at least the second case, if not the first as well, it's not the same as with horse selections, as your clients use of your picks will improve the prices for you the publisher.

So, No it's not the same because your clients acting upon your advice actually makes you money instead of hurts you. It's quite common for publishers to take advantage of this situation

PaceAdvantage

04-25-2006, 05:38 PM

So, No it's not the same because your clients acting upon your advice actually makes you money instead of hurts you. It's quite common for publishers to take advantage of this situation

I wasn't even necessarily thinking about the SEC regulations involved, but those have an effect as well...

Here's what I'm thinking, and I'll use a "breakout" strategy as an example. Let's say a stock picker picks his stocks using a breakout strategy (stock breaking out of a period of consolidation):

If the picks are based on "buy the breakout at $20", what do you think will happen if you have 1000 other guys and gals with buy orders at $30.01? It's going to push up the stock so quickly that lots of people will end up getting filled at a higher price (bad), then forced to sell at a lower profit then they would have had not the 1000 extra competitors been there bidding on your stock in the first place.

Arbitrage strategies are another area where the more people there are involved, the less profitable the trade is likely going to be.....

Of course, this applies more to shorter term trades then trades held for years....but then again, if you are holding a stock for years, you've got a lot more to worry about then the initial entry price and competition from 1000 other people following the same tout sheet.

skate

04-26-2006, 05:04 PM

ok ok , IPO, is put out at a very low price, too low to begin with, and bammo the sucker takes off like a rocket and the players pile on, everyone wants part of the action. then the bottom falls out, but if i'm touting the market, i don't want to give my customers info that causes such volatility.

with being able to gather "mucho info" over the net, put the info together with a little common sense and you can ask for $5500 per months service fee, not impossible.
hey, join a few country clubs, play some cards, handle your booze

and you pick up on free info.

i'm not saying, "i have the I.Q to do this", but it is a way to go.

FUGITIVE77

04-27-2006, 02:11 AM

I say this to all touts, bet them yourself or get a job. I don't give my pics to anyone, well sometimes I'll whisper them to my mother,,,,,but she's hard of hearing.

Koko

04-27-2006, 10:37 AM

If the picks are based on "buy the breakout at $20", what do you think will happen if you have 1000 other guys and gals with buy orders at $30.01? It's going to push up the stock so quickly that lots of people will end up getting filled at a higher price (bad), then forced to sell at a lower profit then they would have had not the 1000 extra competitors been there bidding on your stock in the first place.

I'm not sure I get your example. Here's my point. If you can essentially direct your theoretical 1,000 subscribers in and out of a position, over the course of a morning (not all react to your instructions immediately at 7AM.),
when you are allowed to step in and out previous to your crowd doing so, don't you think you can find a way to time your trades so that you take advantage of whatever wave you manage to create? Doesn't sound to tough to me.

PaceAdvantage

04-27-2006, 06:32 PM

I'm not sure I get your example. Here's my point. If you can essentially direct your theoretical 1,000 subscribers in and out of a position, over the course of a morning (not all react to your instructions immediately at 7AM.),
when you are allowed to step in and out previous to your crowd doing so, don't you think you can find a way to time your trades so that you take advantage of whatever wave you manage to create? Doesn't sound to tough to me.

I don't know the details of the SEC rules and regs, but a scenario such as you present is illegal, is it not? Even if you aren't required to register with the SEC, if you have a huge following, and are frontrunning your selections, you can go to jail.....

Koko

04-27-2006, 06:39 PM

I don't know the details of the SEC rules and regs, but a scenario such as you present is illegal, is it not? Even if you aren't required to register with the SEC, if you have a huge following, and are frontrunning your selections, you can go to jail.....

Don't think so. If you're registered you would have to disclose that you were investing in the same selections, but whether you'd have to say when, I don't recall. But if you're not registered, under what charge would you think you could be charged?

PaceAdvantage

04-27-2006, 06:51 PM

But if you're not registered, under what charge would you think you could be charged?

Easy. Inside information. You know you are about to release this stock to your large mass of subscribers, and you know they will be buying, so YOU buy BEFORE you release the stock pick to your faithful following, thus profiting on inside information. It would be a clear violation of the law.....I think.....

skate

04-28-2006, 02:55 PM

I wasn't even necessarily thinking about the SEC regulations involved, but those have an effect as well...

Here's what I'm thinking, and I'll use a "breakout" strategy as an example. Let's say a stock picker picks his stocks using a breakout strategy (stock breaking out of a period of consolidation):

If the picks are based on "buy the breakout at $20", what do you think will happen if you have 1000 other guys and gals with buy orders at $30.01? It's going to push up the stock so quickly that lots of people will end up getting filled at a higher price (bad), then forced to sell at a lower profit then they would have had not the 1000 extra competitors been there bidding on your stock in the first place.

Arbitrage strategies are another area where the more people there are involved, the less profitable the trade is likely going to be.....

Of course, this applies more to shorter term trades then trades held for years....but then again, if you are holding a stock for years, you've got a lot more to worry about then the initial entry price and competition from 1000 other people following the same tout sheet.

well ok, but you're looking at 1 or 2 cases, which could always be "a case".
but not really a negative to the overall situation. deception aside, it should work.

skate

04-28-2006, 03:04 PM

Easy. Inside information. You know you are about to release this stock to your large mass of subscribers, and you know they will be buying, so YOU buy BEFORE you release the stock pick to your faithful following, thus profiting on inside information. It would be a clear violation of the law.....I think.....

i don't think we are talking about insider trading. although we could be. if you use info that is available, especially if it's on the net, not inside.
and the idea would be " you don't have to trade", but rather you sell your info.

getting off topic, but the only people that can legally receive inside info and use "IT", would be the USA Congress and THEIR Aids, jesus, this drives me wild.
not even the Pres can do this sort.

Jeff P

04-28-2006, 06:11 PM

Here's an example of what is meant by inside information:

Let's say I work in the accounting dept of ABC Co. which is publicly traded. Let's also say that I know ABC is going to release its Q1 earnings after the close of business on Fri 4/28. Let's further say, that as an insider (I'm on their accounting team, remember?) I happen to know that ABC's Q1 earnings are going to be released at 25 cents a share. For the sake of argument let's also say that this is significantly less than the street's (or analyst's) consensus estimates which happen to be 50 cents a share. When the news hits the street, it's a pretty safe bet that ABC's stock price is going to plummet. Under SEC regulations, as an insider, I have to keep quite as a mouse about this. I am forbidden from telling anyone and can not act on this information in any way.

Now, if shortly beforehand, I take a short position on ABC, anticipating that once the news hits the street ABC's share price will drop - guess what? I've just committed insider trading.

Not quite the same thing as making a buy or sell recommendation in a newsletter and taking positions beforehand on my own behalf in anticipation of how my subscribers will behave in reaction to my published opinion.

In the former case, I am an insider. I have access to info only those inside ABC Co's inner circle are privy to.

In the latter case, even though I might have a significant following, I am still an outsider. I make my buy or sell recommendations based on info available to anyone willing to do the research.

-jp

.

-jp

.

PaceAdvantage

04-29-2006, 12:08 AM

Not quite the same thing as making a buy or sell recommendation in a newsletter and taking positions beforehand on my own behalf in anticipation of how my subscribers will behave in reaction to my published opinion.

In the former case, I am an insider. I have access to info only those inside ABC Co's inner circle are privy to.

In the latter case, even though I might have a significant following, I am still an outsider. I make my buy or sell recommendations based on info available to anyone willing to do the research.

Upon further review, I believe I am wrong. The practice of "front running" which I described (buying a stock prior to issuing a recommendation based on the belief that your recommendation will cause the stock to go up) is not technically illegal, as far as I can tell.....unethical, yes, but illegal....probably not....

Koko

04-29-2006, 03:50 AM

PA,

The issue is the context. Frontrunning is illegal for certain individuals and institutions in certain types of settings. A financial newletter publisher who makes transactions in advance of his clients is not one such situation.

PaceAdvantage

04-29-2006, 04:17 AM

skate

04-29-2006, 01:29 PM

We're actually going off on tangents here. I believe my main point in all of this was that "too many players" in both a horse system and stock system produce the same results....dilution of profits.

Let's put this another way. Most people believe that the more people playing a profitable stock selection system, the better it is for everyone. This is completely untrue, for one very simple reason. The more people involved, the more the DYNAMICS of the system have to change, to the point where the results will end up looking nothing like what they were before all these participants arrived.

Think about it...say you come up with a great stock selection method. You back test it for years using a strict method of entries and exits. Now you decide to sell the system, and 10,000 folks purchase it and use it religiously.

There is absolutely no way future results are going to be anywhere near past results, because the entire dynamic of the system will change.

So, now you have tons more folks trading your signals, and they are all entering and exiting the stock at the same time......it's akin to trying to evacuate a sports stadium during a fire and only one little exit door is functioning....lots of folks are going to get burned in the form of higher prices on entry, and lower prices on exits.

The more people who join the party, the less likely a particular system will retain the characteristics that made it a winning system in the first place. And, I won't get into the fact that many of these new participants are going to tweak the system and attempt to ANTICIPATE entry and exit signals to stay ahead of the crowd....the whole thing gets turned on its head.....

Same thing in horse racing....the more people who play a profitable system, the more likely profits will evaporate....

looks like we are talking about, at least ,2 ways of selling stock info.
PA, it seems that you are using an example of "a system that will recognize a stock to be good or bad" and if so, then yes, everyone using the system will gravitate towards the same stocks. and they would be selling and buying at the same time.
but, as with selling info on a race , selling info on a particular stock, would not have any cause to decrease the value of the stock (if you had a buy situation) and people bought, then the stock goes up. this is the opposite situation, when you recommend a horse .

it has nothing to do with Dynamics "in a negative sense". keep in mind that this is Not a system. but rather, you sell insite and if you are good, then people buy, and the more they buy the higher the price. just the opposite if you were to tout a horse. with the horse , the value is on the Pay Out, which is divided, so the more that play your pick, the less you receive.

with the stock, the more that people put into your stock, the higher the value of the stock. no System, just good info. you are not using a stock selection Method.
you sell information, not method. your future results are now, and not what might happen down the road.

you don't have people entering and exiting at the same time. unless everyone is buying your info. (not). just a guess, but i would say that more money went in and out of Microsoft yesterday, than all the money played at ALL tracks yesterday. my guess.

it will depend on how good you are with your timing.

Brokers are not "fiduciaries", no legal binding. they are "suitable". your advice must be "incidental".

no doubt it works and people pay real good for a good service.

back to racing
skate

mainardi

04-29-2006, 01:35 PM

Same thing in horse racing....the more people who play a profitable system, the more likely profits will evaporate....
Add to that the fact that selection systems force people to see what the selector wants -- the horses are listed in order, and most people process information in an ordered fashion -- then the dilution would be inevitable. I also think that when people buy selections, they feel compelled to play them. So IF the horse wins, it is naturally going to dilute the pool and drive true handicappers crazy... but ONLY if they have the horse as well. :bang:

The beauty of software is -- at least hopefully -- that there is enough flexibility in the setup to allow users to tailor it to their specific needs. This lowers the potential of everybody coming to the same conclusion in the same race.

Koko

04-29-2006, 02:06 PM

The beauty of software is -- at least hopefully -- that there is enough flexibility in the setup to allow users to tailor it to their specific needs.

Shameless Plug Flag. :p JK

Koko

04-29-2006, 02:21 PM

We're actually going off on tangents here. I believe my main point in all of this was that "too many players" in both a horse system and stock system produce the same results....dilution of profits.

.

PA,

I don't know who you are referring to as far as your "going off on tangents" comment. This was your quote that I've addressed all along in this thread:

"When it comes to stocks and stock picks, it works the same way as horse picks, even though you would THINK having lots of people play your pick in the market would be a good thing....it's not".

What you're clearly implying here is that it's "not good" for the selection publisher in terms of his subscribers' actions enhancing his profits.

You're the one now arguing completely different points that no one else has addressed.

Are you still of the opinion that a reasonably observant person could not profit from the actions of one's subcribers in the market, presuming one had enough or large enough subscriber's to be an influence?

If you think not, please explain why you feel this is the case.

Indulto

04-29-2006, 02:28 PM

PA,
Just thought I’d share some feedback with you as well as congratulate you on the board’s popularity. One never knows who’s lurking out there, but the results might surprise you. Apparently, someone out there recognized my friend from my earlier post here and told him to check out this board. Whoever you are, thank you, and I look forward to a Private Message from you, if you are so inclined. Thanks also to Koko for starting this thread. Perhaps you and PA should debate the merits of a reunion/matchmaking service rather than a tout service

Turns out, my friend is now into the Stock Market which rewards his contrarian nature more handsomely than the Thoroughbreds. Yes, Lefty, he agrees the market is doing very well, these days (although he is not sure it is at “an all-time high” or which indicators your expression might refer to) and --you’ll really love this -- his current speculative efforts were fueled, in part, by the sale of his house before prices started to recede. For him, retirement has resulted in revitalization whereas for me, being retired sometimes means getting tired again and again. What has kept such opposites friends is a shared sense of what is funny and what is just

He would like me to correct an impression I may have created regarding the nature of his relationship with the P6 group. For TT’s benefit, let me put it this way: Their mutual mutuel interest involved acquiring his expertise/system for more objective evaluation of potential new group members/selectors whom they hoped might complement existing ones to obtain better bettor results.

I can’t share much more than that other than to attempt a Kennedy-esque rephrasing of his Derby/BC selection advice which enabled him to cash on Arcangues in the BC: Ask not what a horse has done to prove he can win. Ask what he has done to prove that he can’t.

My own advice upon reading this thread: Ask not what a tout picked today unless you acquired his sheet before the races were run.

skate

04-29-2006, 04:16 PM

i doubt that PA was trying to deride or ridicule, but rather "making aware". when he said "off topic".

but anywho, the volume alone, of the stock market, would diffuse any touting problems that race touting would bring. two very different fields.

skaters

boy, i beter watch out(spellling), PA is about.

Koko

04-29-2006, 04:35 PM

i doubt that PA was trying to deride or ridicule,

Skate,

I didn't presume that he was, I was simply wondering who's post he was referring to.

PaceAdvantage

04-29-2006, 08:04 PM

Skate,

I didn't presume that he was, I was simply wondering who's post he was referring to.

I was referring to the posts where the debate had turned to whether something was legal or illegal or perhaps insider trading, etc....

PaceAdvantage

04-29-2006, 08:17 PM

What you're clearly implying here is that it's "not good" for the selection publisher in terms of his subscribers' actions enhancing his profits.

You're the one now arguing completely different points that no one else has addressed.

Are you still of the opinion that a reasonably observant person could not profit from the actions of one's subcribers in the market, presuming one had enough or large enough subscriber's to be an influence?

If you think not, please explain why you feel this is the case.

I am not sure if I am capable of explaining my position any further. It's pretty clear (at least to me) why, IF YOU HAVE A SYSTEM that picks winning stocks consistently, you want to keep it to yourself. That's all I've been trying to say in this thread.

Koko

04-29-2006, 08:30 PM

PaceAdvantage

04-29-2006, 08:35 PM

PA,

So it's not clear to you at all, that it should be a relative no-brainer to take advantage of your position as newsletter publisher to profit in the markets from your subcriber's order flow. That's like shooting a layup to me, but some see it as a much tougher shot apparently.

Go to any stock market or trading message board and post your question there. They will all tell you why most people DO NOT share profitable methods publicly.

You are obviously not familiar with the art and science of trading....I don't know what else to say....perhaps we are talking about two different things?

Koko

04-29-2006, 09:05 PM

Go to any stock market or trading message board and post your question there. They will all tell you why most people DO NOT share profitable methods publicly.

You are obviously not familiar with the art and science of trading....I don't know what else to say....perhaps we are talking about two different things?

And they know what ancient wisdom on the message boards that hasn't yet been revealed to me?

Your second paragraph is quite funny, but without going into depth why, let's just say you have shown to be quite wrong about my familiarity with trading and the markets.

PaceAdvantage

04-30-2006, 01:37 AM

Your second paragraph is quite funny, but without going into depth why, let's just say you have shown to be quite wrong about my familiarity with trading and the markets.

I'm not trying to be an ass or anything like that....it's just that anyone familiar with trading financial instruments would know the common belief that those who have winning systems are better off keeping such systems to themselves.

And upon further examination, I have come to agree with that sentiment. But like I said, perhaps we are talking about two different things here, and I have failed to realize such....

PaceAdvantage

04-30-2006, 01:42 AM

From personal experience -- I am currently trading a system I created that only holds a stock an average of about 4 or 5 days. I know that if 1000 other people were taking the same exact entries and exits as I do every morning (especially on some of the stocks I trade that average less than 100,000 shares a day), I would be screwed over on many of my entries, thus denying me of profit that would be mine had there not been those 1000 extra people coming in at the same time.

I would be filled at a higher price upon entry, and come exit time, there would be a rush to the door, and I would probably end up with a lower fill. In both instances, my potential profit is lowered because all these extra people are trading my signals.

This is definitely a case where more is less when it comes to the trading equities.

mainardi

04-30-2006, 02:12 AM

Shameless Plug Flag. :p JK
I though you were serious... then I saw the JK (which I can only assume means "just kidding"). Nice touch of sarcasm... you had me going for a second there! :cool:

Koko

04-30-2006, 06:02 AM

PA,

I'm talking strictly about ones ability to create the wave and swim ahead of or behind it when one is an investment newsletter publisher. We're not talking about 20,000 people all trading a system where you're in the midst of the wave, we're talking about you get to direct the clients in and out of the market, a very different situation indeed.

skate

04-30-2006, 04:38 PM

jesssuuss;

must be somwething i've missed.

but if you havre ag ood system or whatever and the public went along with "it" then when you recommend a "buy", people will buy and the stock will go up, easy. seems like that's what you'd want.

on top of that, i can not see a program-system, too much volume and volatility. but if you call it a system , then its a system(with bout 12,trillion variables), good

the ...
skater

don't need anyother forum for that...

Koko-

i know that you didn't Presume

PaceAdvantage

04-30-2006, 04:42 PM

must be somwething i've missed.

but if you havre ag ood system or whatever and the public went along with "it" then when you recommend a "buy", people will buy and the stock will go up, easy. seems like that's what you'd want.

Except after a while, that's not what will happen. Your "system" will not be your "system" anymore. The dynamics of your "system" have now changed with this infusion of new players.

Has anyone read what I've posted? Does it not make sense to anyone?

Is it time for this thread to move to off-topic?

I apologize for my part in taking this thread so off the original topic....

skate

04-30-2006, 04:51 PM

PA;

not to be intrusive, but i'd have to assume that your system works when the market goes up and down (lots of variables, endless). and it has been diifficult lately, to pick short.

hey good luck and i believe what you say, it will take a long time.

skate

04-30-2006, 04:58 PM

Pa;

well , i hear what you are saying and sure it is possible. i have a tough time being able to follow a system with so many tangents.
but if you can pick (should we change location hear, sorry), just lemme get this in, a stock using good info, then any other stock should have the same result, if you use the same info. i understand that this is "just the way i think" and not a fact.

thanks.
skatign

skate

04-30-2006, 05:16 PM

Pa;

i was waiting for you to change location.

i do see that if you were to limit the amount of play (small action trades) that this could tend to have more precision to your method.

but when i'm talking about "too many variations", i'm talking about the market overall. which would be the area in which to tout.

and the term "to hold" would also come to play.

the races are a lot closer to a small (handle), but the big boards volume would make the distinction.

karlskorner

04-30-2006, 07:36 PM

More or less. 2200 of them have disappeared, WHY ? Maybe they are tired of reading about the Stock Market, or a program someone has put together that will put a horse on the moon, better yet query how may hairs in a horses tail. I have yet to see a post, that 6 posts later it takes off into the wild blue yonder. I took time to read over the member lists and wondered were all these people have gone to. If it weren't for Tom and his 14000 plus posts and good humor there would not be anything worth while reading.

PaceAdvantage

04-30-2006, 09:21 PM

More or less. 2200 of them have disappeared.

And you know this how?

I keep a close eye on stats, and the activity trend on this website is either up or level.....

I had 5.5 million page views in the month of March, and 250,000 visitors. You think that was all Tom?

PaceAdvantage

04-30-2006, 09:33 PM

Theoretically, all this talk about the stock market is related to the subject at hand, which is how to market a tip sheet. We have gone off on a discussion of why marketing a tip sheet in the first place may be a bad idea, especially if you are any good. I used the example of the stock market, and presented examples that contradict what most people think about the market, which is the more people playing your pick, the better. Not true, in many instances, especially when dealing with the SHORT TERM trade.

In any event, it's not like threads have never gone off-topic before, and if you know of a message board similar to this one, where threads NEVER go off topic, please let me know....sometimes you have to bend a little, know what I mean?