douglasw32
04-21-2006, 06:24 PM
I sent this to a buddy, anyone employ any type of "written method" for lack of better terms...
Heres the idea...lets write up what we think is going on.. like "A CLOSER LOOK" does in the DRF
if the trainer is a go we should be able to find why? this is just the first non maiden event
as always stay away from maidens and fields loaded with first time anything (turf/distance)
at the least it keeps us focused on our TOP 4 from the Trainer Sheet (average trainer cat percents
PLUS horses lifetime figure)
__________________________________________________ ____________________________________________
Why Not Whitney... is running for her first time back at mnr with an old trainer she's had before,
she has run 6 times at mnr and failed to win all 6 times. she has only won 4 of 43 all 4 at this distance
on fast tracks earning a speed of 85 4th rider out of 6 at mnr. had 4 works before last race 4th
and the SHIP from Hawthorne.
PASS
============
Bankers Wife...3rd start back ran an improved last in 2nd back..failed at this distance 11 times
won twice at mnr and 3 times out of 34 but none within the last two years...good jockey up best
speed was an 81 at mnr on a fast track but going long.
In a shorter race last time with Stokes up went evenly, fired inside at the 8th pole and surged steadily
to the wire...takes the mount again and if I were the trainer I would be looking for an extra furlong today.
MAYBE ?
===============
In Millie's Honor...5th race after what looks like a very poor claim...crap jock 53 tries and ZIP in 2006.
Trainer 8 an ZIP won twice at MNR earning 74 lifetime fig, on an OFF track, going longer. had a 71 at this track
over a fast surface at this distance in 2005... won 5 of 37 lifetime, trying to get lightning to strike twice...
8-1 should be 40-1 Keeps being hustled up by jockey and caving in.
PASS
===================
Golden Carousel... okay jock...Horse at mnr 31 and 0 but won 7 times on a fast track and 2 at this distance.
earning a 76. trainer is ZIP for 24, horse is going the wrong way 3 declining pace and speed figures in a row
with no break or work worth mentioning. Usually has slow starts...new jock last time sent her hard early she got
checked and caved in. Back to regular jock tonight.
PASS
====================
I HAVE TO GO 5 DEEP on the trainer sheet
Typical Brag....nothing to shout about either :(
Okay i will not pull in the last three lowest trainer %'s it goes against the trainer theory we are working with...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Looks Like BANKERS WIFE IS THE PLAYABLE HORSE even at 8/5 on the morning line it could be easy money.
This one also has the best LAST RACE CLASS (I looked at all the Winners SPEED FIG from the last race for each horse
to arrive at this statement) Also owns the best half mile pace fig and Late Pace fig of the 4.
In a field of closers this one is a Presser and may end up having an unchallenged lead.
Lets see how it goes.
Heres the idea...lets write up what we think is going on.. like "A CLOSER LOOK" does in the DRF
if the trainer is a go we should be able to find why? this is just the first non maiden event
as always stay away from maidens and fields loaded with first time anything (turf/distance)
at the least it keeps us focused on our TOP 4 from the Trainer Sheet (average trainer cat percents
PLUS horses lifetime figure)
__________________________________________________ ____________________________________________
Why Not Whitney... is running for her first time back at mnr with an old trainer she's had before,
she has run 6 times at mnr and failed to win all 6 times. she has only won 4 of 43 all 4 at this distance
on fast tracks earning a speed of 85 4th rider out of 6 at mnr. had 4 works before last race 4th
and the SHIP from Hawthorne.
PASS
============
Bankers Wife...3rd start back ran an improved last in 2nd back..failed at this distance 11 times
won twice at mnr and 3 times out of 34 but none within the last two years...good jockey up best
speed was an 81 at mnr on a fast track but going long.
In a shorter race last time with Stokes up went evenly, fired inside at the 8th pole and surged steadily
to the wire...takes the mount again and if I were the trainer I would be looking for an extra furlong today.
MAYBE ?
===============
In Millie's Honor...5th race after what looks like a very poor claim...crap jock 53 tries and ZIP in 2006.
Trainer 8 an ZIP won twice at MNR earning 74 lifetime fig, on an OFF track, going longer. had a 71 at this track
over a fast surface at this distance in 2005... won 5 of 37 lifetime, trying to get lightning to strike twice...
8-1 should be 40-1 Keeps being hustled up by jockey and caving in.
PASS
===================
Golden Carousel... okay jock...Horse at mnr 31 and 0 but won 7 times on a fast track and 2 at this distance.
earning a 76. trainer is ZIP for 24, horse is going the wrong way 3 declining pace and speed figures in a row
with no break or work worth mentioning. Usually has slow starts...new jock last time sent her hard early she got
checked and caved in. Back to regular jock tonight.
PASS
====================
I HAVE TO GO 5 DEEP on the trainer sheet
Typical Brag....nothing to shout about either :(
Okay i will not pull in the last three lowest trainer %'s it goes against the trainer theory we are working with...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Looks Like BANKERS WIFE IS THE PLAYABLE HORSE even at 8/5 on the morning line it could be easy money.
This one also has the best LAST RACE CLASS (I looked at all the Winners SPEED FIG from the last race for each horse
to arrive at this statement) Also owns the best half mile pace fig and Late Pace fig of the 4.
In a field of closers this one is a Presser and may end up having an unchallenged lead.
Lets see how it goes.