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cees with dees
04-21-2006, 11:55 AM
Mind you, I've only had one Derby winner since I began selecting in 1972 so take this for what it's worth.
I kind of really like Bob And John.
In the Wood, he chased outside every step to a first time calker with ability and not only put him away but held off the late charge of the other calked entrant, albeit ordinary at best, Jazil.
Like that he can go either way. Baffert never hurts and think he's peaking at exactly the right time and should be around 20-1.

Jinxed
04-21-2006, 08:49 PM
That was one of my first throw-outs :)

kenwoodallpromos
04-21-2006, 08:54 PM
If you picked him, you must like dirt thrown in your face much more than Bob and John. LOL!!

KingChas
04-22-2006, 12:59 AM
Good Luck CwD. Stay with your bet.These guys are tough here.A lot of people throw out your pick without posting their's.. :confused: I said I liked Lawyer Ron after the AD and had a member on his 2nd post ever want to book it.Without stating his betting interest.Big set of Cojonies huh! :D Any way if the 2006 Derby falls apart I pick Giacomo to win again! :lol:

JPinMaryland
04-22-2006, 01:20 AM
you know, I was trying to find a way to toss out Bob and John but I cant. At least not right now. Jazil is another one I'd like to toss but can't. Neither of those really scare me, like a horse that I might leave out in a trifecta and really be pissed when he hits...That would be someone like Sharp Humour. :bang:

toetoe
04-22-2006, 01:48 AM
I usually never doubt my original picks, but Gomez apparently kinda really likes B&J also, as he's chosen to ride him.

KingChas
04-22-2006, 01:54 AM
I usually never doubt my original picks.

I usually only doubt my original picks the Sunday after the first Saturday in May. :D

EQUIPACE
04-22-2006, 03:13 AM
Cees With Dees...

It's been awhile since I've posted but I still love PA's Site.... Stay with your feelings... The horse is a contender, despite the negative attitude from a few players that have already made a decision. These players as well as you and I cannot possibly make a possible play against this horse until a day or two before the race when all scratches are final and the contenders truly come to light. I have had the winner 4 of the last 7 derby's and that was not final till a day or two before it ran. The winners were not always my first choice, but keys to the race nonetheless... Bob and John is definately a contender here at this point. If you are a pace handicapper and like using velocity ratings without looking at a single PP take a look here....

http://www.chef-de-race.com/2006_derby_pace_parameters.htm

The horse fits right now... And its obvious!

Of course there is always going to be someone to debate it despite the truth.

Last year Giacomo fit as a contender from the same figures, same site... Again after the scratches and leftovers and reviewing the PP's. I know hindsight is 20/20 and I did not have him last year... Anways, here is that link...

http://www.chef-de-race.com/2005_derby_pace_parameters.htm

I have no relationship to the people that run this site... So in other words, there is nothing in it for me... They have been around for a long time with some interesting info on the big race contenders. Thats it, nothing more than that for me.

Bottom line here is that... I like this horse as well as a couple of others and I'll save a final opinion till a day or two before the big event, when I have all the PP's and data files run through my programs!

Dont let others opinions steer you away from this contender just yet. They will be re-reading this post again and shaking their heads in disgust if he wins or keys a large exotic.

John

EQUIPACE
04-22-2006, 04:22 AM
I had to go look these races and contenders over again since I dont have all the PP's for derby contenders.... Just to make may point clear... I see only one horse that has a projected final 1/4 fraction at 10F of 23.9 (His projected rating from the Sham S - 9Furs)..... You need to look at this race 3 back-SA and see for yourselves.... No One Has It Period! Thats serious for the distance runner...

He's a contender.... I'll leave it at that till the real PP's come in...

John

fmhealth
04-22-2006, 09:49 AM
Cee, this being the most contentious Derby I've ever seen, Rob was my final toss. Since most Derby winners usually have two 100+ Beyers, Rob doesn't qualify for me.

My picks, Sinister Minister, Point Determined & Sweetnorthernsaint. I will box them in the Per & Tri & wheel them with all in the Per as well.

Best of luck, this race will most likely go to any of 12 entries that get the most fortunate trip.

toetoe
04-22-2006, 10:47 AM
Eq,

I'm gonna stick my neck out and disagree with your disapproval of disagreements ... on a DISCUSSION board! The "negative attitude" is your own figment. But hey, life's grand. Let's play two today. :)

The Judge
04-22-2006, 11:21 AM
Equipace got to www.drf.com for the pp's

Dap Daddi
04-22-2006, 11:38 AM
Hello:

Just thought I would throw my "Two Cents" in. I'm am relatively new to this sight but I would like to say the following:

Approximately 2 or 3 horses have won the Kentucky Derby in modern times (last 12 years) with 8 or less starts as a race hores. They were Fusaji Pegasis and Sunny's Halo. I am not for sure but Grindstone may have had 9 starts. Base on this and other factors I like AP Warrior. The fact that in his last race The Santa Anita Derby he was caught in a rock and a hard place based on the fact if he challanged early he was dead in the water and secondly he had to run somewhat out of his element. He won as a two year old. He has been competitive in all but one of his last 5 races. John Sherriffs his Trainer knows how to prepare a horse, and his jockey Cory Nakatani is a excellant rider.

With all the pre-early speed signed up to possibly run to, my imppression is that a presser will win this years Derby. This horse has the number of starts that exceed 9 or more races and will be at nice odds. His pace figures from his last win are strong. Again this is my opinion as well my money.

Dap

46zilzal
04-22-2006, 12:53 PM
a race, ANY race, is a distinct unit composed of various abilites, some interacting against one another, others just there to fill the startng gate and then others having a component style which ASSISTS another combatant's chances. UNTIL this UNIT comes together as a unified field, limited to the distinct interactions of that FINITE mixture, all of this is just fun conjecture without much real logic.

When the field becomes FINITE, with all the past performance comparisons at hand, that is the time to make RATIONAL choices. We don't know what strange racing luck may force one PIVITOL animal out of the big race today or next week.

JustRalph
04-22-2006, 01:06 PM
My picks, Sinister Minister, Point Determined & Sweetnorthernsaint. I will box them in the Per & Tri & wheel them with all in the Per as well.

Best of luck, this race will most likely go to any of 12 entries that get the most fortunate trip.


How can you do this, without the final card? Post position and scratches could change the whole damn race, don't you think? I don't usually settle on a horse until the last day or two. After the card is available. I just don't see how you can pick your tickets right now..........I just realized I am on the same page as 46zil, this is some kind of day already............

46zilzal
04-22-2006, 01:17 PM
.........I just realized I am on the same page as 46zil, this is some kind of day already............
we can agree in areas other than off topic

Jinxed
04-22-2006, 07:27 PM
Cee, this being the most contentious Derby I've ever seen, Rob was my final toss. Since most Derby winners usually have two 100+ Beyers, Rob doesn't qualify for me.

My picks, Sinister Minister, Point Determined & Sweetnorthernsaint. I will box them in the Per & Tri & wheel them with all in the Per as well.

Best of luck, this race will most likely go to any of 12 entries that get the most fortunate trip.

I like your picks. Add Brother Derek and I'll call it good. Sinister Minister could get away on the lead and pull another War Emblem.

kenwoodallpromos
04-22-2006, 08:23 PM
I like Showing Up! His stamina will make hima a force to contend with and a good post will put him in the hunt! (Besides, he is the latest prep winner!).

46zilzal
04-22-2006, 08:51 PM
I like your picks. Add Brother Derek and I'll call it good. Sinister Minister could get away on the lead and pull another War Emblem.
even Baffert admited that this one is NO War Emblem. Be very surpised to see that one in the top 5 at the end.

fmhealth
04-22-2006, 09:02 PM
Ralph, your point is certainly well taken. Scratches of any of my three picks would benefit me since I'll only bet the horses that start, obviously. I won't add another horse since nobody else qualifies for me. In terms of post position, I personally find them irrelevant in this race.

My bottom line is that I usually bet too much in all the TC races & very seldom have the winner. The race once again will probaly go to any one of the the numerous contenders that wind up with the most fortuitious trip. Best of luck!!!!!!!!!

RXB
04-22-2006, 09:59 PM
I like Showing Up! His stamina will make hima a force to contend with and a good post will put him in the hunt! (Besides, he is the latest prep winner!).

Preakness, maybe. Not Derby, I hope. This could be a very nice horse if the connections are patient.

Roamin
04-25-2006, 09:52 AM
Sweetnorthernsaint, will destroy this field!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'll go one better, you might be looking at the next Triple Crown Winner
Good Luck

Its not written in stone, just my thoughts and my money is going to be parleyed into a nice bankroll.

fmhealth
04-25-2006, 10:41 AM
Mr R, I share your enthusiasm for SNS, although he's up against some formitable competition in the Derby. As you know, these races have almost as much (if not more) to do with the trip rather than the horse. Traditional 'capping goes out the window many years. No need to look further back than the immortal Giacomo to see the value of getting the right trip.

As for the TC, this is where we part ways. Since there has NEVER been a TC winnner that didn't have a previous race over the Belmont strip. SNS would be making history in this respect.

Best of luck!!!!!!!!!!!

Roamin
04-25-2006, 10:53 AM
FMHEALTH, good point on the Belmont track, but if you look at SNS, he handled 3 different tracks very well. his first race on grass you can throw out, he was fractious that day, rank, green you might say, since then he has come into his own very nice. He can run on any type of surface, sloppy, fast, it don't matter. He has enough speed to stay out of trouble in that calvary charge in the Derby. I truely believe he has what it takes to be a top thorobred.

betchatoo
04-25-2006, 02:52 PM
Sweetnorthernsaint, will destroy this field!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'll go one better, you might be looking at the next Triple Crown Winner
Good Luck

Its not written in stone, just my thoughts and my money is going to be parleyed into a nice bankroll.

I hate when other people start touting the horse I like. Make's me wonder if it's too obvious and I should do more research

Roamin
04-26-2006, 10:12 AM
betcha, I ain't touting, just giving my point of view, remember, if you look long, you pick wrong. Good luck

Shamin2nd
04-26-2006, 10:45 AM
Everytime I look at the Kentucky Derby (pre) PPs I come up with the same horse... Based on running style, breeding, strength of previous competition, the added 1/8th of a mile, pace scenario, recent workout form, and trainer... I have to go with...

Point Determined! Going away... Keep it to yourselves...

Doc
04-26-2006, 01:50 PM
...undefeated Barbaro. Why doesn't anybody like him? I think his trainer is tops, he'll be fresh come Derby Day, and he's got a top jock in Prado. Lots to like with this guy.

Doc

fmhealth
04-26-2006, 02:50 PM
Doc, can't speak for anyone else but I don't like him simply because of the L/O. As you know, NO horse has won the Derby in I believe over 50 years with this type of L/O.

Now in all fairness not many have even entered off a L/O like this so the data base is small & probaly irrelevant. But, there are so many quality horses going this year, I have to draw the line somewhere. I also threwout FC a few years back because geldings don't win the Derby.

OTM Al
04-26-2006, 03:12 PM
I like him, but not to win. I do think he's a must use underneath however

kev
04-26-2006, 03:17 PM
I think Barbaro will be listed as 8-1ml and might go off at 10-1 and up, you just don't here much about him.

JustRalph
04-26-2006, 04:13 PM
Doc, can't speak for anyone else but I don't like him simply because of the L/O. As you know, NO horse has won the Derby in I believe over 50 years with this type of L/O.

Now in all fairness not many have even entered off a L/O like this so the data base is small & probaly irrelevant. But, there are so many quality horses going this year, I have to draw the line somewhere. I also threwout FC a few years back because geldings don't win the Derby.

yep, and geldings don't win it either................

Hank
04-27-2006, 12:22 AM
Like the song says DON'T WORRY BE HAPPY:jump:,this big long striding rugged sob will have a major say in who wears the roses,a short list of his virtues 1.the confidence of an unbeaten. 10F ped WILL get the trip.HAS won on 2 different turf courses ,slop and fast dirt WILL handle quriky CD surface 3. all his early schooling as a TURF horse ensures that he WILL relax and FINNISH.4 Has not peaked too early remains fresh.5 Has shown talent and GRIT.Sometimes we forget that without GRIT figs aint $hIT.BARBARO:ThmbUp:

RXB
04-27-2006, 12:38 AM
10-furlong pedigree for Barbaro? Hmmm... when did Carson City go from a sprinter/miler sire to a 10-furlong sire?

Joe L.
04-27-2006, 01:15 AM
10-furlong pedigree for Barbaro? Hmmm... when did Carson City go from a sprinter/miler sire to a 10-furlong sire?
Barbaro is by Dynaformer out of a Carson City mare... certainly gets distance pedigree from sire :ThmbUp:

Hank
04-27-2006, 01:48 AM
R X B, Glad you asked, La reine rouge is down from the Roundtable=Nearco line HEAVY stamina she was bred to CC to try an put some speed IN.And of course his sire is Dynaformer,so yea like I said he IS bred to get a route of ground.[DI 1.81] [CD.0.53] And numbers aside, his physical TYPE, running STYLE and PERFORMANCE all indicate,ROUTER so much he has NEVER run in a sprint.:ThmbUp:

Doc
04-27-2006, 08:41 AM
Yahoo...go Barbaro!

I think his pedigree is a beautiful blend of both speed and stamina, and as far as the long layoff, well, guys like Matz and Dickinson always must be respected when you see their horses coming back after many days off. They march to the beat of a different drummer, that's for sure.

Doc

RXB
04-27-2006, 10:38 AM
R X B, Glad you asked, La reine rouge is down from the Roundtable=Nearco line HEAVY stamina she was bred to CC to try an put some speed IN.And of course his sire is Dynaformer,so yea like I said he IS bred to get a route of ground.[DI 1.81] [CD.0.53] And numbers aside, his physical TYPE, running STYLE and PERFORMANCE all indicate,ROUTER so much he has NEVER run in a sprint.:ThmbUp:

I see all kinds of horses with acceptable dosage figures that really aren't bred for 10 furlongs. Brother Derek being a good example.

Barbaro's dam has some stamina influence, but that Carson City blood is still in there. And CC is primarily a sire of frontrunning sprinter/miler types. Add that to Barbaro's forward running style plus his moderate dirt speed figures and closing times, and I see a horse who is not a likely to win from off the pace at 10f.

Also, Dynaformer is not as much of a true stamina sire as a lot of people think. His progeny tend to do their winning at 8f - 9f. This might have something to do with class: Dynaformer gets a lot of winners in quality races but they don't seem to do very well in Grade 1's. (Broad Brush was similar in this regard).

Hank
04-27-2006, 12:15 PM
Hey RXB good point about the Dynaformer's G1 results.Your points regarding Barbaro's running style and come come times could be valid also. But pointing to a speed influence damsire as a knock on a horse who is CLEARLY not a Carson City TYPE I don't get that.But hey like I said to DOC I'm HAPPY:jump: that you don't like him in the Derby and I sincerly hope many others share your point of view.;)

Doc
04-27-2006, 05:52 PM
This is from the pedigree analysis of Barbaro from the Blood-Horse site:

"If Dynaformer can be faulted for anything--and many racing purists would not consider this a fault--it is that his progeny generally need time to mature and seldom start showing their best form earlier than midway through their 3-year-old seasons. Barbaro, however, appears to be the happy exception, doubtless thanks to an infusion of speed and precocity via his dam, La Ville Rouge, whose sire Carson City was a grade II stakes winner over six furlongs at both two and three. La Ville Rouge had enough early form to run second behind Matron Stakes (gr. I) winner Oh What a Windfall in the 1998 Tempted Stakes (gr. III) at a mile. She later showed good form on turf as a 4-year-old, placing in three graded events, two of which were on grass, at distances up to 11 furlongs.
A full sister to listed stakes winner Lucky Lavender Gal and a half-sister to California Derby (gr. III) winner Green Alligator (by Gate Dancer), La Ville Rouge is out of Toddler Stakes winner La Reine Rouge, a full sister to 1985 Gallorette Handicap (gr. IIIT) winner La Reine Elaine and a daughter of 1973 Carter Handicap (gr. II) winner King’s Bishop and the Nearctic mare Silver Betsy. As can be seen from the above, there is speed aplenty in La Ville Rouge’s pedigree, but it is tempered by the stamina influences of Nijinsky II (second damsire of Carson City) and Round Table (sire of King’s Bishop)."

JPinMaryland
04-27-2006, 10:29 PM
I Add that to Barbaro's forward running style plus his moderate dirt speed figures and closing times, and I see a horse who is not a likely to win from off the pace at 10f.

What the hell is wrong witih Barbaro's come home times? He's coming home in 25 1/2 which is pretty good for a front runner.

xfile
04-28-2006, 02:03 AM
Hey RXB good point about the Dynaformer's G1 results.Your points regarding Barbaro's running style and come come times could be valid also. Good Lord! I'm afraid to ask. What in the heck is a "come come" time? :cool:

toetoe
04-28-2006, 02:22 AM
Fastest closer earns the title of "Homecoming King."

Jinxed
04-29-2006, 04:58 AM
Everyone likes the obvious choices. I'm willing to bet it will be an upset with a horse not even mentioned here winning the derby. Just my thoughts. I'm going to be looking really deep in this field.

JPinMaryland
04-29-2006, 05:06 PM
look deep; then weep.

kingfin66
04-29-2006, 07:28 PM
This is a fun thread. I finally started looking at the Derby a little bit more. I am looking at Barbaro, Sweetnorthernsaint, A.P. Warrior, Pt. Determined, Brother Derek and Sharp Humor as Contenders. I originally thought Bro D was the hands down winner this year and I think I posted it somewhere on this site. His SA Derby victory was impressive, but so too was Sweetnorthernsaint's victory in the Illinois Derby. I still have to wait for a few other things like post draw, full pp's etc., but my $5 win bet will be well spent this year. Heck, I might even have two win bets if I get prices on two of my top contenders.