KY DERBY OUTCOME SCENARIOS

[Hank]

The most logical approach the betting the derby [imho] is to cover 2 or 3 outcome scenarios 1. speed holds 2. stalker grinder breaks race open on turn 3.meltdown upfront deep closer gets up.If I were investing 100 it would be spread 60 to 70 on scenario #2 and 10 to 15 on #1 and #3 each.Now the players, most likely winner of scenario #1 Brother Dereck High cruising speed allows him to stay in contact with SM and SH without being run off his feet.Scenerio #2 most likely winner Barbaro this is a gritty sob who has won on turf, slop, fast dirt ,wont trip over his ped and will handle Churchill surface.scenerio #3 most likely winner Point determined though not really a deep closer per se in the derby he figures and the head of the 3rd flight,he too is a gritty bastard that will not trip over his ped and will probably thrive on a deeper surface.:ThmbUp:all agreeing and :ThmbDown:dissenting Opinions welcome

[RXB]

The pace will be hot. Usually the Derby pace is a little too fast, but this year it should be much too fast. Hard to see anyone near the front lasting, but none of the closers seem too inviting, either. Maybe one of the habitual pace-pressers will rate midpack and then slingshot to the lead with a big turn move. Or maybe not.

Sweetnorthernsaint is the best horse from a numbers standpoint but he's a presser/chaser who will have to alter his typical running position in order to be effective. Maybe he can, maybe he can't. Maybe he ran his race last time; maybe he's got another good one in him.

Too much conflicting information; I doubt that I'll be betting.