Speed in the Ky Derby

[xfile]

There appears to be a lot of speed heading into the Derby. To name a few:

Sinister Minister
Brother Derek
Lawyer Ron
Sweetnorthernsaint
Keyed Entry
Discreet Cat
Sharp Humor

[Snag]

With that in mind, next Question:


Who are the closers?

[xfile]

With that in mind, next Question:


Who are the closers?

The best one is Steppenwolfer IMO. If Jazil gets in he's another one.

[cj]

Best Closer = Point Determined.

[chickenhead]

I don't know who's in and who's out...but looking at the bris file:

Sun River
Sacred Light
Point Determined
Cause to Believe

are your best closers, in no particular order. I haven't seen the figures out of last weekends races yet, so there may be an addition or two to the list.

[Valuist]

Now if Sunriver can actually GET into the race.

[dccprez]

Now if Sunriver can actually GET into the race.


I think - THINK - he may need to WIN the Lexington to climb over the 5 horses in front of him. I dont believe that a place-finishing will get him in...bummer too.

[Observer]

Any chance that Sinister Minister is seen as such uncontrolable speed that he's let go to do his own thing???

I don't consider Brother Derek to be the same kind of "speed" as Sinister Minister, and think Brother Derek would be able to sit a couple lengths off, if needed.

After Lawyer Ron's last two races (Rebel & Arkansas Derby), I don't think he'd have to have the lead, either. And I don't know if I'd consider him speed. He showed in the Rebel he could settle. In the Arkansas Derby, his gunning for the lead around the first turn I think was more the rider, McKee, pushing to get out of what could have become a bad position that got Lawyer Ron fired up. I also find it interesting that Lawyer Ron is unbeaten on dirt (7) .. but winless on polytrack (2 .. including a Maiden Claimer $50,000) and on turf (5). I also find it interesting that he was dropped to the maiden claimer after failing to handle turf .. they never gave him a shot on dirt or "dirt" until that poly maiden claimer .. which he lost by a neck.

With just three starts, two of which were in Dubai, I think it's hard to classify Discreet Cat. He had his maiden win at Saratoga, then wasn't seen again until his two starts in March in Dubai.

If Keyed Entry really goes in the Derby .. his best shot might be to sit a bit off by a length or two .. like his Gotham, where he was still fighting at the end. Of course, there is a HUGE difference between 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/4 miles.

I'm also not convinced that Sweetnorthernsaint is need-the-lead material.

Sharp Humor might be the most likely to offer a strong early battle with Sinister Minister.

[Valuist]

Dccprez-

Even with the defections? Two today already and I get the feeling Pletcher isn't 100% sure he's sending either of his other two.

Observer-

It is possible although it seems that there's so many pressing types, its doubtful they all will sit. Sinister Minister may well get clear but I would think they're going to make him work. Is he Millennium Wind or War Emblem? He's only been w/Baffert for 2 races so it is possible he could be another WE. But if I remember correctly, there wasn't nearly as much early speed in the 2002 Derby.

[Observer]

... next Question: Who are the closers?

This thread has been hijacked into a closers thread rather than a speed thread .. but since we're talking closers .. I'd consider Storm Treasure to close into a share. Though I'm not sure he's considered a possible starter for the Derby. Those connections already have Private Vow.

[dccprez]

Dccprez-

Even with the defections? Two today already and I get the feeling Pletcher isn't 100% sure he's sending either of his other two.

V -

As I said, I really am not certain. I was only sure of one defection and that would have put him only three back. With two he's probably a lock to get in even if he finishes 2nd.

I think that at this point the real question becomes the PP draw. Usually I dont give it all that much creedence but this year, for some inexplicable reason, it is buzzing in the back of my brain that the draw might really play a big role in the success or failure of a number of the entrants.

[chickenhead]

I'm taking a wait and see approach before trying to decide what the pace will be, I'm not giving it any thought until I see how the track is playing, who's in the race, and what the draw is.

That said, I have a feeling it will be extreme one way or the other, I doubt we will see a honest pace with a 2 or 4 length presser moving up and drawing off. It's much more likely to be a wire job or a last man standing pace explosion. With this prospective field the latter looks more likely, but it's really way too early to worry about it.

[Observer]

...if I remember correctly, there wasn't nearly as much early speed in the 2002 Derby.

I seem to remember the 2002 Derby as being one of those races where going in there was talk about how much speed was there, but yet the 1-2 finishers, War Emblem and Proud Citizen, went 1-2 around the track.

Besides those two, Medaglia d'Oro and Came Home were considered speed. And Wild Horses, Private Emblem and Request for Parole had speed.

Side note on Request for Parole .. yes, he's the same one still running .. and winning .. scored March 26 on Gulfstream turf.
:jump:

[Snag]

This thread has been hijacked into a closers thread rather than a speed thread .. but since we're talking closers .. I'd consider Storm Treasure to close into a share. Though I'm not sure he's considered a possible starter for the Derby. Those connections already have Private Vow.

Sorry for changing the thread direction but speed is usually easier to see in 3 yr. olds. These kids improve with each work and race. However, I always remember what an old track bum said once: don't 'cap the Derby any different than any other race.

[the_fat_man]

Dccprez-


Observer-

It is possible although it seems that there's so many pressing types, its doubtful they all will sit. Sinister Minister may well get clear but I would think they're going to make him work. Is he Millennium Wind or War Emblem? He's only been w/Baffert for 2 races so it is possible he could be another WE. But if I remember correctly, there wasn't nearly as much early speed in the 2002 Derby.

I'm inclined to agree with Observer, that SM will have the lead to himself.
The others lack his type of speed (with the possible exception of Roman's horse).
Consider the possibility that, rather than the stalkers making SM work for the lead, he'll make them work to keep up. If he runs them off their feet early (not possible? see the Bluegrass) the race will collapse late (assuming he doesn't wire).

Round up the (way) off-the-pace suspects. Except Sunriver.

[toetoe]

Steppenwolfer is bettable only in a proposition bet against a frustrated speedball. He's the kind that will go back to nw1 or nw2, be hammered down to 1/5 off his TC "credentials," and lose that race too! LR?Steppenwolfer should be a decent proposition bet, and the legions of admirers of the two can actually have a shot at making money.

Point Determined is intriguing, and he HAS to be 20/1, don't you think?

[lsbets]

I've thought for a couple of months that come Derby day, the trainers of the top speed horses will remember last year's pace and tell the jocks to stay back and not go for it early. I still believe there is not going to be much pressure up front this year and someone will steal it with an easy trip on the lead. I just don't know who's going to do it.

[Valuist]

Toetoe-

Point Determined is 7.5-1 right now at Pinnacle, almost 3 weeks and several likely defections later, he could be 5-1 by race time. Why do you feel he'd be such a big price? He ran well and was up against a lone speed scenario at Santa Anita. We've seen these scenarios reversed before (Snow Chief/Ferdinand, Indian Charlie/Real Quiet). Wouldn't shock me if he beat Brother Derek.

[toetoe]

Okay, presuming the following ballpark odds:

Derek, Saint .. 5/1,

Ron, Barbaro .. 6/1,

SinMin .......... 12/1,

PD at 5/1 will put every remaining runner at 40/1 or above. Not necessarily unjust odds, but it won't happen. And if it's not PD at 15- or 20-to-1, it will be one of the first five mentioned. Who are these legions waiting to bet PD down to 5/1? The sharpies that got him at 15/1 or 25/1 or who-knows-what-to one in the futures? Those that took a horrible price, 8/1 or so, will bet him down if he's opens at 20/1 ... MAYBE. But why would they pound and pound and make it worse than their futures bet, which is already awful, albeit better? :confused: :confused:

[dccprez]

Okay, presuming the following ballpark odds:

Derek, Saint .. 5/1,

Ron, Barbaro .. 6/1,

SinMin .......... 12/1,

PD at 5/1 will put every remaining runner at 40/1 or above. Not necessarily unjust odds, but it won't happen. And if it's not PD at 15- or 20-to-1, it will be one of the first five mentioned. Who are these legions waiting to bet PD down to 5/1? The sharpies that got him at 15/1 or 25/1 or who-knows-what-to one in the futures? Those that took a horrible price, 8/1 or so, will bet him down if he's opens at 20/1 ... MAYBE. But why would they pound and pound and make it worse than their futures bet, which is already awful, albeit better? :confused: :confused:

Good point.
That said, I think now, and have all along, that PD is a legitimate contender and that his odds will reflect that of an actual "win" candidate.
With a number of horses that may appear (read; appear) to be somewhat more likely win candidates (BD, LR, Barbaro, SM, SNS) I see PD staying around the 8-10/1 area.
Keep in mind that so many of the once-a-year or "few-times-a-year bettors come out for the Derby AND that they base a lot of their decisions on who won last time, by how many lenghts, "tips" from friends, etc., all of the the previous winners will take a lot of $$ even if some of US don't believe that they are actual contenders. SO...PD "floats" around.
Just my own prediction...

[xfile]

Okay, presuming the following ballpark odds:

Derek, Saint .. 5/1,

Ron, Barbaro .. 6/1,

SinMin .......... 12/1,

PD at 5/1 will put every remaining runner at 40/1 or above. Not necessarily unjust odds, but it won't happen. And if it's not PD at 15- or 20-to-1, it will be one of the first five mentioned. Who are these legions waiting to bet PD down to 5/1? The sharpies that got him at 15/1 or 25/1 or who-knows-what-to one in the futures? Those that took a horrible price, 8/1 or so, will bet him down if he's opens at 20/1 ... MAYBE. But why would they pound and pound and make it worse than their futures bet, which is already awful, albeit better? :confused: :confused:

IMO Derek will be 4/1 and Saint 6/1. Ron 7/2 and Barb 6/1. Sinister 12/1 sounds right. :cool: But then again we're not splittin hairs are we?

[Valuist]

I seem to remember the 2002 Derby as being one of those races where going in there was talk about how much speed was there, but yet the 1-2 finishers, War Emblem and Proud Citizen, went 1-2 around the track.

Besides those two, Medaglia d'Oro and Came Home were considered speed. And Wild Horses, Private Emblem and Request for Parole had speed.

Side note on Request for Parole .. yes, he's the same one still running .. and winning .. scored March 26 on Gulfstream turf.
:jump:

I don't have the past perfomances in front of me but I listened to Jerry Brown's archived seminar on the 2002 Derby and he even mentioned there wasn't that much speed in the race. I'll give you Private Citizen, but Medaglia D'oro and Came Home? Definitely not need the lead types, either stalkers or maybe pressers. And wasn't Private Emblem the NY bred who won the Arky Derby? I thought he was a closer. Buddha would've been a speedball to push War Emblem but he scratched a couple days before the race.

[xfile]

I don't have the past perfomances in front of me but I listened to Jerry Brown's archived seminar on the 2002 Derby and he even mentioned there wasn't that much speed in the race. I'll give you Private Citizen, but Medaglia D'oro and Came Home? Definitely not need the lead types, either stalkers or maybe pressers. And wasn't Private Emblem the NY bred who won the Arky Derby? I thought he was a closer. Buddha would've been a speedball to push War Emblem but he scratched a couple days before the race.

War Emblem was a speedball and not a NY bred. :cool:

[Valuist]

I was talking about Private Emblem, not War Emblem. There was two Our Emblem colts in that race.

[xfile]

I was talking about Private Emblem, not War Emblem. There was two Our Emblem colts in that race.

My bad...I see that now. War Emblem got away with an uncontested lead. I can't imagine any horse getting that this year.

[RXB]

Medaglia D'Oro was not a stalker; he was a lead/press type all the way. But he got wiped out at the start of the '02 Derby.

[Observer]

Baffert on Uncontrollable Sinister Speed (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33107)

[cj]

Sinister Minister may or may not be the horse to beat. His being in the race does ensure a very difficult trip for any horse that likes to run close to the leader, as they are most likely doomed. They will either let him go, and maybe watch him waltz to an easy victory, or press him and exhaust themselves. Who will be the guinea pig?

[andicap]

Sinister Minister may or may not be the horse to beat. His being in the race does ensure a very difficult trip for any horse that likes to run close to the leader, as they are most likely doomed. They will either let him go, and maybe watch him waltz to an easy victory, or press him and exhaust themselves. Who will be the guinea pig?

Trainers have short memories -- they will all remember when everyone got fried in fast fractions last year so IMHO they will let him go and see how fast SM runs early. If the pace is too slow they will press him to keep him honest. If it's an honest pace they might very well gamble he won't get the distance.
It might depends on how the track is playing at the time.

[ceejay]

What, Andi, they'll all be trying to win last year's Derby. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[Niko]

Sinister Minister provides an interesting quandry for other trainers. Baffert will send him because that's how Sinister runs and he has two off the pace horses going to the Derby. One of the front end, a couple in the middle. What more could a trainer want.

For trainers: Looking at Keeneland, whether you believe the number or not..you probably won't risk Sinister Minister getting an easy lead. Plus I'm not convinced the other leading contenders have the ability to rate for a distance of ground. Tainers tried to rate a couple key horses in preps because of last years Derby, in case that's the style needed, but it wasn't very succesfu. Post position could play a big role, depending who's stuck on the inside and outside and who's sitting next to who.

Very, very interesting. I hear Brother Derek pulls, if not he could actually sit and have a good trip. I truly believe he's the best horse coming into the race, but not sure if he'll rate enough to win...(based on people's observations of him pulling).

[kenwoodallpromos]

http://horseracing.about.com/od/history/l/blderbywin.htm
Note that in the "live ball era" of 1972-79 low odds and in the post- Secretariat 1970's posts 2, 3, 4 dominated. Also note that from 1989 forward, posts 5 through 10 have won 10 times, and since about 1979 only 2 favorites have won, one (Smarty) at 4-1. Posts 15 and 16 wins in small streaks. Credit Real Quiet for overcoming the low post "jinkx" since 1989.

[kev]

Using running styles for speed, might not be the greatest way but it's ok to see how much speeds in a race. For ex. if I say 2.0 meaning the horse on avg was running 2nd most of his races, I only took their route races. I'll say anything 2.5 and below is good early foot. Also this is for the 4F mark in a race and only took up to their last five races, alot of horses only had 2 or 3 races for routes.
2005 there was 7 horses in the derby that was 2.5 and under. This years horses taking the top 20 in earnings there 8 that are 2.5 and under.
2004 derby there was only 3 horses Lion Heart-S.Jones and Quintons Gold Rush.
2003 derby there was 3 horses Indian EX, Peace Rules, Funny Cide
2002 derby there was 5 horses, this after 2001 derby where they had the fastest times in all derby's.
Last year there was 3 horses that was 1.9 or below, this year looks like there are 5.

[46zilzal]

2002 derby there was 5 horses, this after 2001 derby where they had the fastest times in all derby's.

Songandaprayer's half and 6 furlong times were WASTED. A more significant fast early pace was Spend A Buck who got the mile in 1:34.1/5 Now, that is moving and held on to win as well, albeit alone on that lead. His fractional times in the previous year's B.C. Juv. were faster than Eillo's sprint win that same day and he only got collared by Tank's Prospect and Chief's Crown by about two.

[RXB]

Using running styles for speed, might not be the greatest way but it's ok to see how much speeds in a race. For ex. if I say 2.0 meaning the horse on avg was running 2nd most of his races, I only took their route races. I'll say anything 2.5 and below is good early foot. Also this is for the 4F mark in a race and only took up to their last five races, alot of horses only had 2 or 3 races for routes.
2005 there was 7 horses in the derby that was 2.5 and under. This years horses taking the top 20 in earnings there 8 that are 2.5 and under.
2004 derby there was only 3 horses Lion Heart-S.Jones and Quintons Gold Rush.
2003 derby there was 3 horses Indian EX, Peace Rules, Funny Cide
2002 derby there was 5 horses, this after 2001 derby where they had the fastest times in all derby's.
Last year there was 3 horses that was 1.9 or below, this year looks like there are 5.

Kev's post has neatly quantified the scenario. Who wants to bet a high pace figure horse this year? (Generally not a good idea in the Derby, but even worse than usual last year and this year.)