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DrugSalvastore
04-18-2006, 08:31 AM
......and enough people do for them to still be in business for so long inspite of the $35 a card they charge...

I saw on another message board that Sweetnorthernsaint ran a negative one figure on the Ragozin sheets.

That's faster than the winning figure of any Kentucky Derby. 1.75 points faster than the mighty Secretariat got for his Derby victory, 2.75 points faster than Spectacular Bid got in his Derby win, 5 points faster than Affirmed got for his Derby victory, 8 points faster than Seattle Slew got for his Derby win. You get the picture....

I'm not exactly a Ragozin figure historian...but I can't recall ever hearing a horse running that big of a figure in a Derby prep either.

andicap
04-18-2006, 09:17 AM
......and enough people do for them to still be in business for so long inspite of the $35 a card they charge...

I saw on another message board that Sweetnorthernsaint ran a negative one figure on the Ragozin sheets.

That's faster than the winning figure of any Kentucky Derby. 1.75 points faster than the mighty Secretariat got for his Derby victory, 2.75 points faster than Spectacular Bid got in his Derby win, 5 points faster than Affirmed got for his Derby victory, 8 points faster than Seattle Slew got for his Derby win. You get the picture....

I'm not exactly a Ragozin figure historian...but I can't recall ever hearing a horse running that big of a figure in a Derby prep either.

Well if a horse is ever going to bounce, now is the time. Although 3 yr olds have been know to pair up tops, but you're not supposed to bet that a top will happen at low odds. The Sheets are all about probabilities and getting value. It is the opposite of determinism. Nothing is ordained. There are only probabilities and playing the odds.

( I'm no expert but have read a lot about them and listened to some tapes, very interesting stuff on form cycles that I would recommend to everyone even if you don't use the sheets. They are very inexpensive.
I believe they are highly accurate for what they purport to do -- but flawed because of their failure to take pace into account. )

Valuist
04-18-2006, 09:48 AM
Didn't Bellamy Road and Bandini run negative numbers in their prep last year? I know they did on Thorograph. I'll poke fun at both but I do think Thorograph's numbers are more accurate, even though neither take into account pace and bias, yet take into account weight, wind, horoscopes, tea leaves and whether or not the groundhog saw his shadow.....

Stevie Belmont
04-18-2006, 09:49 AM
Give them a call or go to the website http://thesheets.com/. They will mail you a tape for free.

andicap
04-18-2006, 09:55 AM
Give them a call or go to the website http://thesheets.com/. They will mail you a tape for free.


If you live or work in NYC, just head down to E. 12th street and pick them up in person. Sometimes you'll see Len himself in the back working on the figs.

Love it -- "Steve Belmont" at the Meadowlands. :D
So do you LIVE at the swamp and what's this NYRA-NJ inner conflict all about? :)

Stevie Belmont
04-18-2006, 10:37 AM
Its and identity crisis, or so it seems.

dccprez
04-18-2006, 11:58 AM
I drank the kool-aid a while back on SNS. I'm thinking that if he doesn't hook a 45-and-change for the first 1/2 of the KD he may be able to carry that speed all the way around...Of course let us not forget that I have often been known to be an idiot come wagering time...

PaceAdvantage
04-18-2006, 03:08 PM
Well if a horse is ever going to bounce, now is the time. Although 3 yr olds have been know to pair up tops, but you're not supposed to bet that a top will happen at low odds.

Who says SNS is going to be low odds come Derby day? I would venture a guess that he will be pretty good odds, considering the fig he put out there...may very well make it worth the risk....

Hank
04-18-2006, 05:50 PM
SNS is a powerful galloper a la Risen Star for him the longer the better,the derby is allways a tough call but if You could future him in the Belmont I LIKE his chances.:ThmbUp:

kev
04-18-2006, 06:15 PM
I think you might have the wrong horse, this from Len himself

"The BG winner did run off the charts (minus 1 3/4) and given his history I certainly agree that he's a primo bounce candidate on three weeks rest in the Derby."

These are some #'s that Rag's gave horses before their derby start from the past.
BANDINI 0
BELLAMY ROAD -0+ (neg )
THE CLIFF'S EDGE 0
LION HEART 0"
MILLENNIUM WIND 1-
EMPIRE MAKER 1
MEDAGLIA D'ORO 1

garyoz
04-18-2006, 06:54 PM
If you live or work in NYC, just head down to E. 12th street and pick them up in person.

East 11th Street (56 up one flight as I recall). They also do an interesting Derby Seminar every year where Len Friedman leads the analysis, used to be held down around Union Square.

rrbauer
04-18-2006, 07:08 PM
I think you might have the wrong horse, this from Len himself

"The BG winner did run off the charts (minus 1 3/4) and given his history I certainly agree that he's a primo bounce candidate on three weeks rest in the Derby."

These are some #'s that Rag's gave horses before their derby start from the past.
BANDINI 0
BELLAMY ROAD -0+ (neg )
THE CLIFF'S EDGE 0
LION HEART 0"
MILLENNIUM WIND 1-
EMPIRE MAKER 1
MEDAGLIA D'ORO 1

So, does the minus one fig belong to Sinister Minister?

And, if so, and he draws a decent post for the Derby, does anybody think that lollypop fractions are in order?

SM's Bluegrass splits

(:22.91, :45.88, 1:09.94, 1:35.45, 1:48.85)

Indulto
04-18-2006, 08:03 PM
So, does the minus one fig belong to Sinister Minister?

And, if so, and he draws a decent post for the Derby, does anybody think that lollypop fractions are in order?

SM's Bluegrass splits

(:22.91, :45.88, 1:09.94, 1:35.45, 1:48.85)
What are "lollypop fractions," anyway?

22-4, 23-0, 24-0, 25-3, and 13-2 suggest a final 14-0 and 2:02-4 for an imaginary 10f on a fast track at KEE. BSF 116 notwithstanding, he doesn't seem like Secretariet's second coming or even Congaree's.

kev
04-18-2006, 08:09 PM
Yes that's what it looks like he SM just ran that big fig.

kev
04-18-2006, 09:17 PM
Len is most likely right SM will bounce. Bounce how much is the question he could back up 2pts and be right in the mix of things or bounce 5pts and not hit the board. His front running style ( mixed in with the other speed horses ) might help that bounce be higher than 2pts also.

rrbauer
04-18-2006, 11:50 PM
What are "lollypop fractions," anyway?

22-4, 23-0, 24-0, 25-3, and 13-2 suggest a final 14-0 and 2:02-4 for an imaginary 10f on a fast track at KEE. BSF 116 notwithstanding, he doesn't seem like Secretariet's second coming or even Congaree's.

"Lollypop fractions" are the easy trip that the projected early runners were thinking about in the Derby before SM showed up. With his presence and the Baffert pronouncement that "he only knows one way to run", gives the other early types a "bee in their bonnet". Now, the big fig might be the kiss of death and he folds after a mile; or, he matches the fig and pisses on a mediocre field; or, he bounces a little and still is in the hunt. The point is that it's a new ball game and SM is the reason.

From a handicapping perspective given this 3YO crop, he is the horse to beat.

RXB
04-18-2006, 11:55 PM
Why is Sinister Minister the horse to beat? The race he ran is completely wrong for winning the Derby. One fluky figure with an early pace rating that is way too high.

DrugSalvastore
04-19-2006, 09:16 AM
I think you might have the wrong horse, this from Len himself

"The BG winner did run off the charts (minus 1 3/4) and given his history I certainly agree that he's a primo bounce candidate on three weeks rest in the Derby."

I saw that---SNS's record lasted all of one week. Sinister Minister is now the fastest pre-Derby 3yo horse ever in Ragozin figure history.

Even a trip handicapper with the most modest of skills should know that both of those horses had once-in-a-lifetime kind of trips in the races they ran those gigantic figures in.

In my opinion, SNS has a much better shot in the Derby of those two.

The Derby just became a much easier race to win---the best horse, Discreet Cat, will not be running in it.

This is the 2nd time in the last seven years that Godolphin has had a Ky Derby prospect with world class talent...and made no effort at all of trying to make the Derby with him. Dubai Millennium being the other.

Valuist
04-19-2006, 09:33 AM
But the most talented doesn't always win it. They (Godolphin) don't get it. You don't win the race by pampering and babying your horse.

PaceAdvantage
04-19-2006, 09:27 PM
But the most talented doesn't always win it. They (Godolphin) don't get it. You don't win the race by pampering and babying your horse.

Then again, you don't always win it by racing and training the shit out of your horse either, ala Afleet Alex....

JPinMaryland
04-19-2006, 10:18 PM
ALex missed a triple crown by what? Half a length? And from this we take it he was over worked? How can that be?? sounds like he was wound perfectly.

PaceAdvantage
04-19-2006, 10:53 PM
Racing and training the crap out of your horse does not necessarily translate to "overworked"....not my point at all....

The point was made that you don't win the Derby by pampering and babying your horse, and I tend to agree. However, I pointed out a recent example where even if you do the opposite of pamper and baby (see Afleet Alex), it still doesn't help if the racing gods have other things in store that first Saturday in May....

rrbauer
04-19-2006, 11:21 PM
Why is Sinister Minister the horse to beat? The race he ran is completely wrong for winning the Derby. One fluky figure with an early pace rating that is way too high.

Because he will dictate how the race is run and assuming a decent post and no problems from the gate he will be either setting or pressing the pace from the get-go.

Go back and look at War Emblem for a horse that ran too fast early...and kept on running. Or, Spend A Buck; or, Winning Colors. All fit horses that had something left when it counted.

SM fits the mold of the 3YO that "got good". And, at the right time. My only concern about betting on him is that the big leap forward could become the "kiss of death" and the tough race back in 3 weeks could finish him off and relegate him to "also ran" status for a long time. But, when I watch the replay of the Blue Grass and see him geared down from mid-stretch then I'm thinking there's something left for May 6th. I'd take 10-1 or better if the other expected cast of characters show up.

RXB
04-19-2006, 11:31 PM
Because he will dictate how the race is run and assuming a decent post and no problems from the gate he will be either setting or pressing the pace from the get-go.

Go back and look at War Emblem for a horse that ran too fast early...and kept on running. Or, Spend A Buck; or, Winning Colors. All fit horses that had something left when it counted.

SM fits the mold of the 3YO that "got good". And, at the right time. My only concern about betting on him is that the big leap forward could become the "kiss of death" and the tough race back in 3 weeks could finish him off and relegate him to "also ran" status for a long time. But, when I watch the replay of the Blue Grass and see him geared down from mid-stretch then I'm thinking there's something left for May 6th. I'd take 10-1 or better if the other expected cast of characters show up.

War Emblem? Too fast early? War Emblem dawdled along on an easy lead through pokey fractions in the Illinois Derby. He didn't go 45-and-change. So when he got lucky and was handed a similar set-up in the KD, he took advantage of it.

Winning Colors had put up consistently good figures, not a one-off freak number. And she got away with moderate fractions in the KD, which is not likely to happen this year.

Seen any Spend A Buck types since Spend A Buck? Every Derby horse since that's went out fast has been defeated.

I've seen four of Sinister Minister's races and I don't think the horse knows how to rate. If he's "the horse to beat," as you described him, then I am well and truly baffled.

JPinMaryland
04-20-2006, 01:50 AM
and you're not going to get 10-1 on him either but I guess that's another issue.

garyoz
04-20-2006, 09:08 AM
War Emblem? Too fast early? War Emblem dawdled along on an easy lead through pokey fractions in the Illinois Derby. He didn't go 45-and-change. So when he got lucky and was handed a similar set-up in the KD, he took advantage of it.


War Emblem was perhaps also helped by the trainer change (and vet change) and a first time in Kentucky race with the associated change in medication rules. I have always thought that trainer "magic" had a lot to do with his win and improvement.

It also seems Baffert's horses do better their first time in the Bluegrass State--thus I wonder about SM's Bluegrass (of course coupled with the KEE bias).

toetoe
04-20-2006, 10:29 AM
My Dear Mr. Bauer,

Don't fall for the "geared down" nonsense. The question is whether Sin Min can bounce back to tiptop condition for the KD.

'Saint, regardless of his trips, and with the exception of the Gotham, which was just inexplicably dull, if only slightly, always manages to run well and FINISH. He doesn't knock himself out, and he doesn't bounce. I would never claim that he could win the ID by 20 if KDes urged him late. That's pointless. Also, I WANT a horse that got a "perfect" trip. That's what bodes well for a no-bounce effort next time. If a horse gets a perfect trip every time, start considering the horse. Give him some credit.

Sin MIn's over/under odds for Derby post time: 12 & 1/2.

Niko
04-20-2006, 02:20 PM
I never trust huge numbers first time at Keeneland. Rarely do I see them repeated when they leave the track...not sure if it's the medication change and the horses just freak, the way the track plays or both...but Keeneland is a quagmire when it comes to numbers for me...Look at the big numbers run in the Bluegrass last year..and I'm sure other years but don't have them in front of me.

tholl
04-20-2006, 06:37 PM
Sin MIn's over/under odds for Derby post time: 12 & 1/2.


Over.

rrbauer
04-20-2006, 09:57 PM
My Dear Mr. Bauer,

Don't fall for the "geared down" nonsense. The question is whether Sin Min can bounce back to tiptop condition for the KD.

'Saint, regardless of his trips, and with the exception of the Gotham, which was just inexplicably dull, if only slightly, always manages to run well and FINISH. He doesn't knock himself out, and he doesn't bounce. I would never claim that he could win the ID by 20 if KDes urged him late. That's pointless. Also, I WANT a horse that got a "perfect" trip. That's what bodes well for a no-bounce effort next time. If a horse gets a perfect trip every time, start considering the horse. Give him some credit.

Sin MIn's over/under odds for Derby post time: 12 & 1/2.

What am I missing....geared down nonsense? Watch the replay.

I like the horse...as to perfect trips, I give the jock credit for most perfect trips.

BTW According to Baffert they tried to rate him in the Gotham.

rrbauer
04-20-2006, 10:27 PM
War Emblem? Too fast early? War Emblem dawdled along on an easy lead through pokey fractions in the Illinois Derby. He didn't go 45-and-change. So when he got lucky and was handed a similar set-up in the KD, he took advantage of it.

Winning Colors had put up consistently good figures, not a one-off freak number. And she got away with moderate fractions in the KD, which is not likely to happen this year.

Seen any Spend A Buck types since Spend A Buck? Every Derby horse since that's went out fast has been defeated.

I've seen four of Sinister Minister's races and I don't think the horse knows how to rate. If he's "the horse to beat," as you described him, then I am well and truly baffled.

If PA keeps the posts online, go back to War Emblem's Derby posts and see who was beating the big tom-tom for his chances.. Me and about two others. I won't tell you how much money I made on that Derby, but I guarantee that I made more than the rest of the PA board (members at that time) combined! And, if Perfect Drift comes 2nd there's a $50 exacta to be reckoned with!

Now we have the same deal with SM....will everybody be scared to go out with him and let him go like WE...I think Baffert is playing a little poker with comments about SM only knowing one way to run...

Players take a stand and then let the results provide the measurement. I never commit to a bet until they draw posts because it's important in the Derby; and, I need to know what the track condition will be because it's important in a lot of ways. That said, I think SM is a significant factor in this years Derby because of his running style and ability. I mentioned the other horses in my previous post because they came to mind as horses who ran the Derby in a front-running style and won. That tactic has provided more failures than successes over the years but that doesn't qualify it as an automatic toss.

RXB
04-20-2006, 10:52 PM
How much money you made betting War Emblem is irrelevant to the comparison between him and Sinister Minister-- that's the issue at hand. Find a race in Sinister Minister's PP's where he's shown any willingness to rate. War Emblem wanted to lead but once he got there he'd slow down. Sinister Minister goes flat out. Not to mention, betting horses off of one fluky figure is a serious money-losing proposition in the long run.

If Sinister Minister is the next Spend A Buck, well that's that. But the chances are pretty remote.

I notice you're changing from "the horse to beat" to "a significant factor," so I must be having some sort of effect.

Tom
04-20-2006, 11:47 PM
SM - won two races lifetime - a maiden claimer and a wire to wire job at Keeneland. Buried in his lone G2 try, couldn't get the job done in a run of the mill stakes race. Storm Treasure - maiden winner buried at Tampa, Strong Contender, NW1 winer - not your toughest bunch.
I am not the least bit impressed with him and will not use him in spot in the exotics.

Valuist
04-21-2006, 09:40 AM
Then again, you don't always win it by racing and training the shit out of your horse either, ala Afleet Alex....

What do you think Baffert and Lukas have done over the years? When it comes to the Derby, those two guys get it. You don't become a gold medal sprinter by running once every three weeks....or a champion weight lifter by going to the gym twice a month. You train your horse HARD. You run him in TOUGH races with demanding stretch battles. Otherwise the foundation isn't there. The Frankel/Pletcher theory may work great for winning lesser stakes or weekday features but at the apex of the game, those guys records pales in comparison to their overall records.

Valuist
04-21-2006, 10:18 AM
BTW, According to the T-Graph board, TG had the Blue Grass much slower than did the Ragozins.

mamaluke
04-21-2006, 11:12 AM
I have been a "SHEET" user for over 30 years.

I played mostly New York and overlays were abundant years ago.
When LASIX came to New York things changed.
Horses did not bounce as before and patterns were not as
prevalent.Also many overlays diminished over the years,that at
times a good sheet horse that was 15-1 ML would go off at 3-1.
Thorograph,run by Jerry Brown,who originally worked for Rogazin
started his own company,and added another reason overlays on sheet
horses became harder to find.
Also Sheet horses do not take pace in account,so it seems to me
this is where the "NEW" overlay is today

This is not a knock on the product just the reality of the times
and $35 bucks is a stiff price to pay and not get value plays

Just sharing my thoughts with yo on the sheets

garyoz
04-21-2006, 06:20 PM
Thanks mamaluke--well stated. I had experience with the Sheets in the 1980's, before Beyers. I think that Beyers are correlated enough and probably the most used approach by the casual handicapper to further cut into mutuals. Plus, I think with the current state of medication form cycles are more complicated than they used to be--this game is too much trainer handicapping.

BeatTheChalk
04-21-2006, 11:37 PM
How about letting us know about the Other Message Board .. the one
where u found some of the Ragozin numbers :)

JPinMaryland
04-22-2006, 01:23 AM
speaking of Lasix, what is the difference in legal drugs when they race in KY? My impression is that they are more liberal with letting them use drugs. IS that correct? I'm sure my impression is colored by the Dancer's Image/Forward Pass controversy when everything was outlawed, I guess. So what is the state of the drugs in KY??

rrbauer
04-22-2006, 08:50 PM
How much money you made betting War Emblem is irrelevant to the comparison between him and Sinister Minister-- that's the issue at hand. Find a race in Sinister Minister's PP's where he's shown any willingness to rate. War Emblem wanted to lead but once he got there he'd slow down. Sinister Minister goes flat out. Not to mention, betting horses off of one fluky figure is a serious money-losing proposition in the long run.

If Sinister Minister is the next Spend A Buck, well that's that. But the chances are pretty remote.

I notice you're changing from "the horse to beat" to "a significant factor," so I must be having some sort of effect.

Wrong! He's still the horse to beat!

rrbauer
04-22-2006, 09:02 PM
BTW, According to the T-Graph board, TG had the Blue Grass much slower than did the Ragozins.


I heard/read that SM got a Beyer 116 for his Blue Grass effort. That translates to a Ragozin of about 3- or 2+ and does not make any adjustment for SM's poor start as Ragozin may have made.

Tom
04-22-2006, 09:03 PM
I expect 10 or 11 will do just that. :rolleyes:

kev
04-22-2006, 09:11 PM
On Rag's S.Minister got a neg 2- and B.Derek and L.Ron looks to run bad for the derby. Right now Bob and John is my top pick, other's I like is Barbaro,AP,Sweet,B.Cat. I also have Thorograph's #'s and Bob&John looks good on their's also.

OTM Al
04-25-2006, 04:13 PM
Found this little fact on Blood Horse site for all you Sheets people

Are you a follower of the Ragozin Sheets? What would you make of a Derby, in which the four top choices earned figures of 12, 10, 9, and 8 3/4 in their final Derby prep? If you said it was a poor group, you'd be interested to know that those were the final prep Sheets numbers for Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, and Spectacular Bid. Times apparently have changed since then.

Interesting huh?

Indulto
04-25-2006, 04:35 PM
On Rag's S.Minister got a neg 2- and B.Derek and L.Ron looks to run bad for the derby. Right now Bob and John is my top pick, other's I like is Barbaro,AP,Sweet,B.Cat. I also have Thorograph's #'s and Bob&John looks good on their's also.kev,
Do you always obtain both, or just for the Derby? Have you found one to be consistently more useful to you under different circumstances, e.g., stakes vs. non-stakes, turf vs. dirt, etc.? Do you analyze patterns or just use the speed figures? If the former, are your results consistently better with one of them? I'd really appreciate your opinion in a neutral environment.

cj
04-25-2006, 04:57 PM
Apparently Jerry Brown doesn't believe Rags, he's on his usual rant about all the figures they have blown, and the Illinois Derby is front and center.

Valuist
04-25-2006, 05:06 PM
It appears that there's two camps on the Stickney Derby: those that believe the race was run in supersonic time (The Sheets and BRIS) and those that believe it was run fast but not off the charts (off the sheets?) fast (T-Graph and Beyer). Clearly Brown and Beyer cut the race loose while Ragozin and the computer data input person for BRIS took the time at face value.

I'm w/Beyer and T-Graph. I use a scale similar to Beyer and I gave the winning fig a 106. I couldn't justify giving the also rans any higher.

cj
04-25-2006, 05:19 PM
I wound up giving the race a 106 pace, 113 speed. This will give SNS a combined rating of 108 on my figures, which are on the Beyer scale.

kev
04-25-2006, 07:37 PM
Guys SNS got a neg 1- on Rag's which is very fast for them and TG gave him a neg 1.1

kev
04-25-2006, 07:49 PM
Indulto,
For Derby and BC I will get both, and make my main choices using Ragozin, I like Rag's for stakes and Alw horses, TG I've done better when dealing with the low price horses. I'm mostly into analyze patterns when reading them. I don't use them all the time, I've found Brisnet about 3 months ago and really like their pace numbers they have. When it comes to Derby and Oaks and mostly all 3yr races, the sheets are my main go to product.

Indulto
04-25-2006, 11:49 PM
I'm mostly into analyze patterns when reading them. I don't use them all the time, I've found Brisnet about 3 months ago and really like their pace numbers they have. When it comes to Derby and Oaks and mostly all 3yr races, the sheets are my main go to product.kev,
Thanks for responding.

I'm still in search of the ultimate (for me) information/selection/wager support tool, but pattern analysis has occasionally helped me identify contenders that I couldn't using the DRF alone. There are even times when I can accurately assess value among such contenders on my own, but far too infrequently.

Good luck in the Derby.

garyoz
04-26-2006, 09:42 AM
Found this little fact on Blood Horse site for all you Sheets people

Are you a follower of the Ragozin Sheets? What would you make of a Derby, in which the four top choices earned figures of 12, 10, 9, and 8 3/4 in their final Derby prep? If you said it was a poor group, you'd be interested to know that those were the final prep Sheets numbers for Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, and Spectacular Bid. Times apparently have changed since then.

Interesting huh?

Yeah, its called better living through chemistry.