First Samurai off Derby trail

[Doc]

Here's the link:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/73664.html

I'm a little surprised, but he didn't run a jump in the Blue Grass, and his trainer is pretty conservative. I'll be looking forward to seeing and betting him in shorter races this year.

Doc

[classhandicapper]

I thought he was going to be a pretty good 3YO. He came out running, but was dreadful in his next 2 starts. I would use the 9F as an excuse, but IMO he didn't even run well for 8F in either of those starts and had already shown he was at least a good miler. I think there's something wrong with him.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I thought he was going to be a pretty good 3YO. He came out running, but was dreadful in his next 2 starts. I would use the 9F as an excuse, but IMO he didn't even run well for 8F in either of those starts and had already shown he was at least a good miler. I think there's something wrong with him.
Did anything happen 3 races back bad?

[plainolebill]

He hasn't run well around two turns.

[DerbyTrail]

Did anything happen 3 races back bad?

Ken,

Yeah.. Something happened. He ran a grueling, all out, -2 (TG)/107 (BSF)/track record on a sloppy track off a 98 day break in the Hutch with Keyed Entry. Then worked fast 10 days later. Lasting implications.

[JustRalph]

Ken,

Yeah.. Something happened. He ran a grueling, all out, -2 (TG)/107 (BSF)/track record on a sloppy track off a 98 day break in the Hutch with Keyed Entry. Then worked fast 10 days later. Lasting implications.

great post...........

reminds me of my departed father. After watching Monarchos win the Derby ( we didn't bet him) he turned to me after hearing the final time and said
"he is done, after that race he will never win again"

if memory serves me..........he was right.

[Valuist]

Add Discreet Cat to the list that are off the trail.

[dccprez]

Add Discreet Cat to the list that are off the trail.


...is this confirmed? Not that I was going to use him anyway (I'm just not convinced about the Dubai route to the Derby based on past history)...

[Valuist]

Godolphin's site confirmed it. DRF has something about it as well.

[JustRalph]

Godolphin's Discreet Cat to Miss Kentucky Derby
by Ron Mitchell
Date Posted: 4/18/2006 9:53:04 AM
Last Updated: 4/18/2006 9:53:04 AM

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33085

[Observer]

Here's a link to First Samurai's story .. you don't need to be a member here:
First Samurai Out (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/todaysnews/newsview.asp?recno=63265&subsec=2)

[the_fat_man]

Did anything happen 3 races back bad?

Yeah, 3 races back (whenever that was) it became ridiculously/redundantly obvious that FS:

1) is NOT a ROUTER ---- FS running 1 1/4 is a laughable notion

2) FS is just not very good


Then again, this was obvious in the fall; even to those peripherally following the game.

Why is FS being out of the derby newsworthy?

Now, Discreet Cat being out of the derby is bigtime news. This was Drugs' choice and I, for one, was looking forward to much editorializing about DC from Drugs.

[dccprez]

Yeah, 3 races back (whenever that was) it became ridiculously/redundantly obvious that FS:

1) is NOT a ROUTER ---- FS running 1 1/4 is a laughable notion

2) FS is just not very good


Then again, this was obvious in the fall; even to those peripherally following the game.

Why is FS being out of the derby newsworthy?

Now, Discreet Cat being out of the derby is bigtime news. This was Drugs' choice and I, for one, was looking forward to much editorializing about DC from Drugs.

TFM I think you are right on. It's funny how we sometimes get hung up on a prospect. Granted FS fit the profile with his great pedigree, good looks and confirmation and, most importantly his big, important early wins. But I wonder if I looked closely enough when the "comeback" race was the Swale at 7F instead of a route-race - maybe the trainer had an idea that distance was not just a "question" but clearly unattainable. Alas we live and learn.

[DerbyTrail]

TFM I think you are right on. It's funny how we sometimes get hung up on a prospect. Granted FS fit the profile with his great pedigree, good looks and confirmation and, most importantly his big, important early wins. But I wonder if I looked closely enough when the "comeback" race was the Swale at 7F instead of a route-race - maybe the trainer had an idea that distance was not just a "question" but clearly unattainable. Alas we live and learn.

You don't seem to know who Samurai's trainer is.. Or what race he made his sophomore debut in.. But yet you are compelled to comment on something about which you clearly have no idea.

Other than his looks, conformation, pedigree and 2 Gr. I juvenile wins, I guess there was nothing to recommend him coming into the year...

Learn something about who trains him and his methods and history and you, and the yutz you parrot, may have a better idea of why First Samurai "isn't a router".

[dccprez]

You don't seem to know who Samurai's trainer is.. Or what race he made his sophomore debut in.. But yet you are compelled to comment on something about which you clearly have no idea.

Other than his looks, conformation, pedigree and 2 Gr. I juvenile wins, I guess there was nothing to recommend him coming into the year...

Learn something about who trains him and his methods and history and you, and the yutz you parrot, may have a better idea of why First Samurai "isn't a router".

*AH!!* I LOVE the friendly interface amongst my horse-racing-fan brethren!

I think that sometimes the "inflection" of what is trying to be "said" in a post doesn't translate well because if it did then I wouldn't be "clarifying" my previous post.

That said...

NO - I do not, off the top of my head, recall who FS trainer is. I'll guess without looking anywhere - Frank Brothers?

LOOKS/CONFIRMATION/BIG WINS; If you re-read my post (with less disdain) I think you'll pick up a different interpretation - the one I intended - which is to POINT OUT those very characteristics that made FS such an attractive prospect at two.

Further to that he ran a real bang-up race in the Swale.

I was merely trying to offer food for thought - about the comeback in the Swale at 7F vs., say, the Holy Bull at 1 1/16 (of course in the interest of full disclosure I think I remember DW Lukas doing the same thing with Cat Thief back in 99') and perhaps (just PERHAPS) his trainer (who I've already copped to not being imeediately familar with) might have had a concern back then about FS ability to get a distance - which is to say that perhaps, PERHAPS, there was a subtle signal that the members of the more astute handicapping-club (of which I am obviously not a member) might have picked up on. That's all, really. Wasn't trying to get anyone's panties in a bunch (like mine are now!).

Beyond that, we live virtually in the same town, I am a devotee of the track (all of the NYRA tracks), I was at FS race, blah, blah, blah. So let's just all get along.

[dccprez]

OH...and in spite of all of that, FS certainly doesn't appear to be a router - at least to me, and many of the other "under-informed".

[classhandicapper]

In case everyone forgot, First Samurai won a Grade 1 race at a mile while earning a good figure. He also ran a very nice 3rd at 1 1/16 after acting up at the gate and racing further behind than usual - again earning a good figure in an especially deep BC juvenile. That doesn't exactly make him a 1 1/4 horse, but I hardly think 1 1/8 was too much to ask. The fact that he couldn't even run a solid mile in his last two starts screams that it was not the distance that was the major problem. There is either something wrong with him physically or he was knocked out by his tough first start off a layoff. Even if it turns out that 1 1/8 is not optimal, if he recovers his best form later in the year, he should be able to run at least similar figures at 1 1/8. He was dreadful in his last two starts. It wasn't the distance that was the only problem.

[the_fat_man]

In case everyone forgot, First Samurai won a Grade 1 race at a mile while earning a good figure. He also ran a very nice 3rd at 1 1/16 after acting up at the gate and racing further behind than usual - again earning a good figure in an especially deep BC juvenile. That doesn't exactly make him a 1 1/4 horse, but I hardly think 1 1/8 was too much to ask. The fact that he couldn't even run a solid mile in his last two starts screams that it was not the distance that was the major problem. There is either something wrong with him physically or he was knocked out by his tough first start off a layoff. Even if it turns out that 1 1/8 is not optimal, if he recovers his best form later in the year, he should be able to run at least similar figures at 1 1/8. He was dreadful in his last two starts. It wasn't the distance that was the only problem.

Let's see:

He beats poor old Henny Hughes on a sloppy track in the Champage (1M).
3/5

Gets bested, as the favorite, by that one in the BC (1 1/16). I definitely didn't want FS in the BC and certainly thought HH would beat him. (I didn't get the money, however, cause I went for the bomb and bet HH with your other favorite, Private Vow --I learned the hard way with him as well.)

Couldn't handle the great Keyed Entry sprinting on a sloppy track in the Hutchenson (7 1/2). at 3/5 OUCH!!!

Couldn't handle the great Corinthian in the Fountain of Youth (1 1/8) and needed to be put up. at 3/5 OUCH!!!

Then is a non factor in the Bluegrass (1 1/8) at 5/2 --the public has wised up.

Now, tell me that you seriously gave this horse a shot in the Bluegrass.

Even Jerry Bailey went out of his way, carefully selecting his words, when speaking about this horse before the race. Brothers is a good trainer; Brothers knows this horse better than anyone else; blah, blah, blah

Wonder when Edgar Prado decided he'd had enough?

[plainolebill]

No offense but getting 8 or 8.5f at Belmont is not 2 turns, more like long sprints. Some horses can't transfer that form to 2 turns, then again sometimes they just get as good as they are going to get at two.

[dccprez]

Let's see:

Even Jerry Bailey went out of his way, carefully selecting his words, when speaking about this horse before the race. Brothers is a good trainer; Brothers knows this horse better than anyone else; blah, blah, blah

(HEY! I was right - it is F. Brothers. And I didnt even cheat and look elsewhere for the answer. Truth be told, a lucky, but educated, guess on my part.)

And I agree - FB is a very, very good trainer. But t_f_m is right about Bailey's comments and EP's choice - solid indicators that at least they felt that FS may (may) have some distance limitations.

Class H does have a good point though - there certainly could be underlying factors and I too look forward to seeing what he can pull off later in the year.

[classhandicapper]

Henny Hughes was an excellent 7f-1M horse for a 2YO. Had he stayed in the US and developed further as a 3YO he would have proved that.

As far as I am concerned, last year's BC juvenile was one of the best juveniles ever assembled. A bunch of the high quality 2YOs didn't make it back or were injured early in their campaign so it's hard to tell that, but a 3rd in that field after being taken out of your game was a very good effort at 8.5F. Go back and look at the PPs of some of the horses that got totally buried in that field.

IMO, the real issue is what is wrong with him now. He already demonstrated that he came back OK because his first start at 7.5F was fine. He earned a very good figure and it was supported by Keyed Entry's subsequent Gotham figure at a distance that was a problem for that horse.

I would accept the 9F and two turn argument if he ran a good mile in either race because we know he capable of a good mile. Corinthian (a non entity at that point) had him at the 6F point even though FS set a slow pace. He also couldn't muster up a bid in the BG either.

I'm not making saying he was going to get 10F or that I thought he was a lock to run a big race in the BG. I am saying that he ran very subpar in his last two starts and it wasn't all accounted for by the distance or two turns.

Make a big run and hang badly I say OK the 9F was too much.

Bear out on the turn or don't switch leads, I say OK, two turns is a problem.

Run like crap every step of the way I say something is wrong.