Derby odds

[Valuist]

Lexington horses aside, based on who's in now, these are my projected odds:

Brother Derek 9-2
Discreet Cat 6-1
Sweetnorthernsaint 6-1
Barbaro 6-1
Lawyer Ron 7-1
Point Determined 10-1
AP Warrior 12-1
Bob & John 15-1
Sinister Minister 20-1
Sharp Humor 25-1
Jazil 25-1
Cause to Believe 25-1
Keyed Entry 30-1
Bluegrass Cat 50-1
Private Vow 50-1
First Samurai 50-1
Deputy Glitters 50-1
With a City 99-1

[ceejay]

With that 116 BSF, I think that Sinister Minister will be much shorter than 20-1 (and underlaid: I give him about a 20-1 shot ).

[toetoe]

I think Discreet Cat won't run, but even so, I think Point Determined will be above 20/1. If you like him, you'll love the odds. A.P. Warrior, besides having little hope, will be way above 12/1. With or without DC, I think 'Derek will be at 7/2, tops. See how sure I am >>>> :confused:

[xfile]

Lexington horses aside, based on who's in now, these are my projected odds:

Brother Derek 9-2
Discreet Cat 6-1
Sweetnorthernsaint 6-1
Barbaro 6-1
Lawyer Ron 7-1
Point Determined 10-1
AP Warrior 12-1
Bob & John 15-1
Sinister Minister 20-1
Sharp Humor 25-1
Jazil 25-1
Cause to Believe 25-1
Keyed Entry 30-1
Bluegrass Cat 50-1
Private Vow 50-1
First Samurai 50-1
Deputy Glitters 50-1
With a City 99-1

Where do I sign up for Lawyer Ron at 7-1? :cool: :D

[ceejay]

xfile,
http://www50.pinnaclesports.com/guestcontestLines.asp?redirected=yes&ContestType=Horses%3A%20Kentucky%20Derby&contestType2=Odds%20To%20Win

Not 7-1 but +605 @ Pinnacle

[Valuist]

I don't expect everyone to agree. From a purely racing fan standpoint, I'd probably pull for Lawyer Ron to win since he's a "throwback" type of horse. The Ark Derby has been a key prep the past 2 years so I could be wrong on him. But the last 2 figs really aren't what you need to win the Derby. And the way he was pulling on McKee.....I can see him getting caught up into the pace and making a big premature move. And being by Langfuhr and a 1/2 bro to Stetter Jr, a Calder 20,000 sprinter, I have doubts about 1 1/4 miles w/him.

Toetoe-Point Determined is 8-1 right now at Pinnacle so we won't be seeing 20-1 on him. I think you're right about Discreet Cat. Pinnacle is offering 9-1 on Discreet Cat, which tells me they are offering such a "bargain" because they know he won't run.

[xfile]

xfile,
http://www50.pinnaclesports.com/guestcontestLines.asp?redirected=yes&ContestType=Horses%3A%20Kentucky%20Derby&contestType2=Odds%20To%20Win

Not 7-1 but +605 @ Pinnacle

How does +605 correlate into pari mutuel type odds? Anyone know? My guess would be to bet $100 to win $605?

[ceejay]

6.05:1

[PaceAdvantage]

And the way he was pulling on McKee.....I can see him getting caught up into the pace and making a big premature move.

That was all McKee's fault. He pushed LR very early in the race to get through a hole on the rail so he wouldn't be caught behind horses. Watch the race again and see as they are going into the first turn, how he starts scrubbing on LR like mad....this keyed LR up to the point where McKee had to really put his feet in the dashboard in order to settle him down again.....

[toetoe]

I think SOME people with deep pockets and the inclination will bet their horses in the KD that are offering more than the FB odds(!). 5/1 or 6/1 on LR and 8/1 on PD? I wouldn't take those odds at post time after several scratches! Factor in the fact that it's 18 days away, and you've got a horrible bet. Is it like the Snoozer Bowl now, everybody just has to get down on the race, and might forget (horrors!) to bet on race day? :eek:

[Valuist]

PA-

Also take a look at the Rebel. Lawyer Ron was climbing early on the backstretch. I still don't think he's comfortable rating off the pace. Like I said earlier, as a racing fan, I'll pull for him but as a bettor, there's a few too many negatives for me to take a low price.

Xfile-

+605 is 5-1. Just think of it like a moneyline underdog. You have to wager $100 to get back $605.

[xfile]

PA-

Also take a look at the Rebel. Lawyer Ron was climbing early on the backstretch. I still don't think he's comfortable rating off the pace. Like I said earlier, as a racing fan, I'll pull for him but as a bettor, there's a few too many negatives for me to take a low price.

Xfile-

+605 is 5-1. Just think of it like a moneyline underdog. You have to wager $100 to get back $605.

I saw him climbing in that race. I noticed it but nobody mentioned anything. I thought maybe I was seeing things :cool:

[JPinMaryland]

Actually they did mention climbing in the Rebel. Randy Moss mentioned this in the pre-race show for Ak dby. Hence my question:

what is climbing really? Moss said his legs go up high because he thinks he's climbing over the kick back, or clods or whatever. People on another message board (I know, PA is the only message board for me, but I stray) said who is this guy? "What does he know?" "He doesnt know what climbing is."


Okay, so for the record. What the heck is climbing and is his description accurate?

[JPinMaryland]

As for Valuist's pre race odds, a nice job. I would make two comments. I think Lawyer Ron will be lower than 7-1 morning line. I would guess 4-1, his visuals are impressive.

And SweetNo.St. I havent looked at Pinnacle but I would think he'd be more than 6-1 morning line. I would guess 8-1. ALso feel that he will drop as the day goes on.

So which horses are the money burners?? We need more money burners :jump:

[xfile]

As for Valuist's pre race odds, a nice job. I would make two comments. I think Lawyer Ron will be lower than 7-1 morning line. I would guess 4-1, his visuals are impressive.

And SweetNo.St. I havent looked at Pinnacle but I would think he'd be more than 6-1 morning line. I would guess 8-1. ALso feel that he will drop as the day goes on.

So which horses are the money burners?? We need more money burners :jump:

Sweet might burn alot of cash because of inflated speed figure.

[PaceAdvantage]

McKee did him no favors if they were trying to get him to rate in the Ark Derby....that's all I'm saying....don't knock the horse in that one....

But then again, McKee wanted to keep him out of trouble, so I can't knock him for the ride he gave (afterall, he did win)....just don't read too much into the fact that Lawyer Ron was pulling like a maniac....

[GeTydOn]

Actually they did mention climbing in the Rebel. Randy Moss mentioned this in the pre-race show for Ak dby. Hence my question:

what is climbing really? Moss said his legs go up high because he thinks he's climbing over the kick back, or clods or whatever. People on another message board (I know, PA is the only message board for me, but I stray) said who is this guy? "What does he know?" "He doesnt know what climbing is."


Okay, so for the record. What the heck is climbing and is his description accurate?

Moss is the most informed guy covering racing. Absolutely THE best. His explaination of climbing is what I've always known it to be. But what the hell do I know? And what the hell do the people know who were asking what Moss knows. What do "they" say climbing is? Seemed like LR was much more comfortable once switched outside where there would be less kickback.

9-2 on Brother Derek is a serious overlay.

[JPinMaryland]

okay then. I've always found Moss to be pretty knowleageable, I think he had SM for the bluegrass. Yeah it's funny on the other board I never saw an alternative explanation for climbing. Maybe I missed it, I guess it was on the del Mar Forum or somewhere..

[dccprez]

Just postulating/wondering ...

...what if SM draws the rail and gets the hole-shot right out of the gate? Do his odds go down significantly?

...and what if SM draws 18 and has to clear all the other bad-boys using up a lot of juice in the process? Odds a lot higher?

I guess I'm wondering if we'll see the projected odds prior to the draw change dramatically for horses like SM, Barbaro, LR and a few others should they draw way outside? I say this because I rambled about post position in another thread wherein I mentioned that typically it doesn't really play a major-major role in my handicapping BUT, this year, for some reason, there is a buzzing in the back of my head that PP plays a bigger part for some specific horses (of course that buzzing could just be the CIA monitoring my thoughts, but I digress...). Point being that I could see a SM win if he got the dream rail trip without having to clear the other speedsters - whic hin turn may have a noticable impact on his final odds...

[Valuist]

Funny thing about post position. Bettors like inside posts where horses don't have to work to save ground but owners and trainers LOVE the outside posts. They don't care about ground loss but don't want to get shut off. And w/the strange way they draw posts for the Derby, look for the horseman to scramble for the auxiliary gate.. :confused:

[JPinMaryland]

Getting back to this climbing issue. Doesnt Lawyer Ron just run like this all the time? I took another look at his Ark. derby in the clear and he just seems to run with a high knee action. Or am I missing something?

[Valuist]

I didn't see his races before LaD. Its not something I normally look for. Actually they showed it on either TVG or HRTV in the Rebel and one of the hosts pointed it out. It looked like he was climbing when McKee moved him off the inside toward the middle of the track.

FWIW, the steam horse right now is Sinister Minister, down to 7-1 at Pinnacle.

[JPinMaryland]

7-1 boy that's interesting, I would have to figure then that Brother Derek's odds are increasing, what is he at? is he gone above 3-1?

[Valuist]

He's about 2.75-1 and Lawyer Ron is 7-2.

One thing to remember: these are offshore odds at Pinnacle. Derby Day gets a lot of one-time a year players who aren't pushing the money thru Pinnacle. It'll be interesting to see how the odds between ontrack and offshore compare.

[Valuist]

I didn't cash on it but I think the odds, 19 days out, were fairly accurate. For some reason, I didn't have Steppenwolfer in there and had Discreet Cat but other than that I thought they were more accurate than Battaglia's line which was made about 3 days out.