Who had the dreamiest trip???

[DrugSalvastore]

Over the last seven days, we've had three major Ky Derby prep races won in blowout fashion by winners receiving textbook dream trips. Each has won with a different variation of a dream trip....so I'm interested to see which of the three trips you guys feel was most dreamy.

* Brother Derek got an uncontested early lead, through modest fractions, in a small field.

* Sweetnorternsaint got the dream point guard pace controlling trip at Hawthorne. While it is true that Mister Triester set the pace in that race, Sweetnorthernsaint actually controlled the pace by sitting an unpressured 2nd.

* Sinister Minsiter didn't have the best of starts, and ran off early, setting sizzling fractions....however, he did so on a very strong inside speed track that been producing wire-to-wire winners with preposterously large margins of victory all week long. On Wednesday at KEE, you had a 9.5 length wire-to-wire winner, and a 7.5 length wire-to-wire winner. On Thursday at KEE, you had a horse win wire-to-wire by 11.75 lengths. On Friday at KEE, you had a horse win by 17 LENGTHS wire-to-wire, and another win by 14 lengths wire-to-wire. Sinister Minister's double digit tour-de-force in the Bluegrass, made him the fourth winner in the last three days, to win by double digit lengths while going wire-to-wire! And YO!!!!...5 of the 6 two-turn dirt races run so far this week have been won in wire-to-wire fashion. Two by longshots.

So folks....which is it? The uncontested lead through soft fractions in a small field trip? The pace controlling point guard trip? Or the wire-to-wire win over a wildly inside-speed favoring track?

I'd also be interested to hear why people choose the trip that they did.

[samyn on the green]

Brother Dereks trip was so clean it should appear in horse vacation brochures, this trip was all inclusive, open bar and airfare included. Brother Derek should have worn a Nikon camera around his neck while Solis sipped a Mai Tai. Absolutely nil pressure whatsoever, and nil potential pressure, there was not even a horse to look him in the eye during the entire curcuit around the oval. Does not get any easier than that for a bridle horse. Bro Derek will face infinitely more pressure at Churchill. he gets the vote for cleanest trip of the year.

Sweet Saint had some more issues to deal with. First consider he shipped in from MD. Then he was drawn 10 wide and had four other speeds in the race to deal with all inside. Was 4 wide entering the first turn. He had pacesetters from the FOY, San Fel, and Santa Cat to deal with. The actual pace was soft but the trip was not as clean as Dereks. Yes a clean trip but the dirtiest of these three.

The track at Keeneland is like a basketball court where one basket is erected at 6 feet high and the other side is 12 feet high. Speed always gets to shoot at the 6 feet side. Sinister Minister will never get to shoot at the six foot basket again. He stumbled at the break and there was other potential speed there so his trip would have to rank somewhere between Bro Derek and Sweet St. A big boo to Prado and Bejarano for riding this track all week and not knowing the deal.

[DrugSalvastore]

I gave the nod to Sinister Minister.

All three of them will bring giant figures in the Derby---and it's HIGHLY unlikely that a single one of them can work out trips like they did in those final preps.

[Valuist]

Sinister Minister may not be on the board at CD but he's gonna murder anyone who tries to run with him. Even though he rode the Keeneland rail bias, I would say the bias wasn't as strong as any of the other days at the meet so far. Bucharest, Kilimanjaro and Sun King all closed to win, although Bucharest and Kilimanjaro did ride the rail for a good portion of their races. Damn Kazoo....if he holds on I nail that late P4. :mad:

Brother Derek figured to get a good trip but I didn't think he crawled early. He ran off by 4 lengths late on the backstretch when he could've kept them bottled up until the field turned for home.

SNS had the ultimate soft pace to the 1/4 pole then sprint away. Frankel said before the race they were going to rate Racketeer and PVal did just that. Mister Triester became lone speed and SNS lone presser. Outer posts are often not a problem at Haw and he really didn't have to work to get position. Mister Triester at 27-1 was able to hold on for second after setting the pace and Cause to Believe, a closer was only 2 lengths off the lead after the first 1/4. After the race, Russell Baze said he felt he had to keep CTB up close because the pace was so slow. And like last year w/Greeley's Galaxy, Kent D. kept the horse driving up to the finish, despite nobody being w/in 9 lenghts. This is a good horse but we still don't know how he'll handle being eyeballed in the stretch. So far, the only time he's had to work (the Gotham), he got beat. I think he'll be 9-2/5-1 at CD and overbet.

[toetoe]

Val,

Right there you've explained why 'Saint is several grades above "Cause." Never does the jockey on 'Saint have to explain that the pace was this, the pace was that, I had to move, I didn't dare move, I should have waited, yadda yadda ... The post in the Gotham was a minor excuse, as I just think he wasn't at 100% for some reason.

No one would beat SM at Kee yesterday. Come on, it's Keeneland. If he can do it at CD, he's Spend A Buck.

[Valuist]

First off, nobody is saying Sinister Minister is going to win the Derby. He's probably legit at 20-1 but no lower, and he could get bet lower based on the last Beyer, Baffert, and the fact he WILL be in front. I also suspect Sweetnorthernsaint will be a major public horse; probably 9-2 or 5-1 second choice. The public will see the big fig and the nice record and assume he's another War Emblem. He will get nowhere near the same trip at CD he had in Stickney. We can't assume he can rate off a fast pace. If horses like Point Given and Bellamy Road weren't able to rate off a fast pace, why do we think SNS can? He's only been in one stretch battle and he lost that one. And he's never taken dirt to the face. As compared to recent Illinois Derby winners, I'd put him ahead of Greeley's Galaxy but a cut below both War Emblem and Ten Most Wanted. I look for Derby contenders who've been running AGAINST the pace (closing on a slow or prompting a fast) not with it.

[GeTydOn]

No way a horse under a strangle hold half the route is having a dream trip. Add to that his jock beating him down the stretch. It ain't even close that Sinister Minister had a dream trip!

:bang:

And please explain how anyone could think Sweetnorthernsaint will be second choice in the Derby?? That horse ain't going off below 10-1 and ain't even going to be THIRD choice.

[Valuist]

I don't know what you were watching. It wasn't the same Illinois Derby I saw. Whether or not the horse was under a stranglehold is highly debateable; he did NOT appear to be fighting Desormeaux. Contrast this to Lawyer Ron, who WAS fighting McKee a bit yesterday. Also, while SNS was "driving" I would hardly say Desormeax was "beating him up'. He hand rode him hard; I said on another thread he could've won handily and saved a little bit but I would hardly say he was beaten up. In basically all his races, the pace figure has been slower than the final figure. That's very unlikely to happen in 3 weeks. Why will he get bet? Simple. The public loves big Beyers and big victory margins. The horses coming off big victory margins usually don't fare anywhere as well in the Derby. Also, if Discreet Cat doesn't come, look for the prices on the main contenders (Brother Derek, SNS, Barbaro and Lawyer Ron) to fall accordingly.

And I don't care if you're running over concrete, speading a field out 25 lengths is NOT an easy trip. And just because Keeneland USUALLY is rail (and speed) biased, closer won 3 of the 6 races on the main track yesterday. First Samurai is supposed to be quick from the gate and this horse just blew him off the track. He may not win at CD but he'll kill off anybody who tries to go with him.

[the_fat_man]

* Sinister Minsiter didn't have the best of starts, and ran off early, setting sizzling fractions....however, he did so on a very strong inside speed track that been producing wire-to-wire winners with preposterously large margins of victory all week long. On Wednesday at KEE, you had a 9.5 length wire-to-wire winner, and a 7.5 length wire-to-wire winner. On Thursday at KEE, you had a horse win wire-to-wire by 11.75 lengths. On Friday at KEE, you had a horse win by 17 LENGTHS wire-to-wire, and another win by 14 lengths wire-to-wire. Sinister Minister's double digit tour-de-force in the Bluegrass, made him the fourth winner in the last three days, to win by double digit lengths while going wire-to-wire! And YO!!!!...5 of the 6 two-turn dirt races run so far this week have been won in wire-to-wire fashion. Two by longshots.

So folks....which is it? The uncontested lead through soft fractions in a small field trip? The pace controlling point guard trip? Or the wire-to-wire win over a wildly inside-speed favoring track?



Drugs and the_fat_man illustrating a RELATIVIST notion of TRUTH:

Drugs: fat_man, it was raining in Seattle Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, and my position is that it therefore rained there on Saturday.

fat_man: Drugs, it rains often in Seattle but,per the weather reports, it DIDN't rain on Saturday. (check the charts)

Drugs: Hey, it rains alot there and it rained on Wed,Thurs,and Frid, so it rained on Saturday as well. Everybody knows that. That's my position and I'm sticking to it.

fat_man: go to the weather report (i.e. CHARTS) for the day, Drugs

Drugs: not about what the charts (i.e. FACTS) say but about how my THEORY tells me to interpret the charts.

fat_man: I'm going for pizza

[the_fat_man]

I don't know what you were watching. It wasn't the same Illinois Derby I saw. Whether or not the horse was under a stranglehold is highly debateable; he did NOT appear to be fighting Desormeaux. Contrast this to Lawyer Ron, who WAS fighting McKee a bit yesterday. Also, while SNS was "driving" I would hardly say Desormeax was "beating him up'. He hand rode him hard; I said on another thread he could've won handily and saved a little bit but I would hardly say he was beaten up. In basically all his races, the pace figure has been slower than the final figure. That's very unlikely to happen in 3 weeks. Why will he get bet? Simple. The public loves big Beyers and big victory margins. The horses coming off big victory margins usually don't fare anywhere as well in the Derby. Also, if Discreet Cat doesn't come, look for the prices on the main contenders (Brother Derek, SNS, Barbaro and Lawyer Ron) to fall accordingly.

And I don't care if you're running over concrete, speading a field out 25 lengths is NOT an easy trip. And just because Keeneland USUALLY is rail (and speed) biased, closer won 3 of the 6 races on the main track yesterday. First Samurai is supposed to be quick from the gate and this horse just blew him off the track. He may not win at CD but he'll kill off anybody who tries to go with him.

2 points:

1) SNS had a harder trip than necessary in both the Gotham and the Illinois ---just part of the package with KD.

2) as I wrote in another thread, SM hit the rail 2x in the stretch while not changing leads in the Cali race. He also failed to change leads in the Bluegrass. He buries them early, and doesn't change in the lane.

As for the bias, one other wire on Sat. (6 1/2 F).

Why isn't his race impressive?

Not saying I want him in the Derby but the race is suddenly quite different.

[DrugSalvastore]

Drugs and the_fat_man illustrating a RELATIVIST notion of TRUTH:

Drugs: fat_man, it was raining in Addis Ababa Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, and my position is that it therefore rained there on Saturday.

fat_man: Drugs, it rarely rains in Addis Ababa, and per the weather reports, it DIDN't rain on Saturday. (check the charts)

Drugs: Hey, it rained on Wed,Thurs,and Frid, so it rained on Saturday as well. Everybody knows that. That's my position and I'm sticking to it.

fat_man: go to the weather report (i.e. CHARTS) for the day, Drugs

Drugs: not about what the charts (i.e. FACTS) say but about how my THEORY tells me to interpret the charts.

fat_man: I'm going for pizza

OK---now I'm really confused.

Either you are having conversations with a make believe DrugS---or you are making a clever and intelligent point that I'm not intelligent enough to follow.

[the_fat_man]

Private Vow in the Arkansas Derby.

Now, THAT was a perfect trip!!!

[DrugSalvastore]

No way a horse under a strangle hold half the route is having a dream trip. Add to that his jock beating him down the stretch. It ain't even close that Sinister Minister had a dream trip!

:bang:

Dude, tell me you are kidding?

If you get loose on an uncontested lead over a wildly inside-speed favoring track---you are having a DREAM trip!!!. I don't care if the horse is under a hold, and being ridden out and whipped through the lane.

[the_fat_man]

OK---now I'm really confused.

Either you are having conversations with a make believe DrugS---or you are making a clever and intelligent point that I'm not intelligent enough to follow.

I'd never mess with you, Drugs

you're one of the forum cognoscenti.

Sucks being lazy and fat
but sucks even more being an empiricist. :bang:

[Valuist]

Fat Man-

I agree with most of what your said. Sinister Minister, regardless of what some will say, was impressive. It should be pointed out that William Hill, one of the big books in the UK, was also impressed enough to drop his price to 12-1. I do think the inside was still the place to be but not as much as the other days so far at Kee.

SNS race in the Gotham was pretty solid. From a trip handicapping point of view, it was better than his Ill. Derby race. Going 3 wide on the inner dirt is usually death. Going 2 wide or even 3 wide at Hawthorne is often being on the best part of the track. I think this year the Gotham field was actually better than the Wood.

[the_fat_man]

Dude, tell me you are kidding?

If you get loose on an uncontested lead over a wildly inside-speed favoring track---you are having a DREAM trip!!!. I don't care if the horse is under a hold, and being ridden out and whipped through the lane.

Question Drugs?

Rank the following 'LOOSE' trips in order of 'LOOSENESS':

1) SM in the Bluegrass

2) BD in the SA Derby

3) Bandini in the recent FL stake

Any difference in the trips?

[the_fat_man]

Fat Man-

I agree with most of what your said. Sinister Minister, regardless of what some will say, was impressive. It should be pointed out that William Hill, one of the big books in the UK, was also impressed enough to drop his price to 12-1. I do think the inside was still the place to be but not as much as the other days so far at Kee.

SNS race in the Gotham was pretty solid. From a trip handicapping point of view, it was better than his Ill. Derby race. Going 3 wide on the inner dirt is usually death. Going 2 wide or even 3 wide at Hawthorne is often being on the best part of the track. I think this year the Gotham field was actually better than the Wood.

I bet SNS (with Greeley's Legacy in the exacta) in the Gotham and didn't bet the Illinois because of the price. My concern with SNS is that with KD aboard, the horse will always have to run more than he needs to. Is SNS good enough to do that in the Derby?

SM's presence in the derby means that all the pressers/stalkers, including SNS, will probably need to do alot more running (early or otherwise). Not saying that SM wires the derby but the chances of the race falling apart become a bit more distinct.

[DrugSalvastore]

Question Drugs?

Rank the following 'LOOSE' trips in order of 'LOOSENESS':

1) SM in the Bluegrass

2) BD in the SA Derby

3) Bandini in the recent FL stake

Any difference in the trips?

All three of those are dream trips. #'s 2 and 3 (Bandini and Brother Derek) because they got an uncontested early lead through moderate fractions.

#1 (Sinister Minister) was a dream trip for slightly different reasons. Though he was running fast on the lead--he got an uncontested early lead over a wildly inside-speed biased track.

Speed has been amazing (even more so than usual) at this KEE meet---and in two turn dirt races...it has been out of this world. On opening week, Bushfire won the Grade 1 Ashland in a romp, at 15/1 odds, while going wire-to-wire. A 13/1 part of entry maiden won wire-to-wire in a two turn dirt route on that same card. The day before, Wanderin Boy went wire-to-wire earning a 113 in a bizzare looking blowout victory.

That was opening week. This week at KEE, they had six dirt route races. Five of them won in wire-to-wire fashion. It started with a 13/1 claimer going wire-to-wire on Wed. and it ended with 8/1 Sinister Minister winning a Grade 1 by nearly 13 lengths, with a 116 Beyer, in wire-to-wire fashion. In the middle of the week, a horse named Capac went wire-to-wire and won a dirt route by 17 lengths.

Overall, 8 of the last 11 dirt routes at this meet have been won wire-to-wire--including four longshots wins---and the overwhelming majority of these wins are by giant margins of victory.

[toetoe]

Getydon's post was confusing anyway, but DrugS,(I think it was you), you maybe misunderstood him. I think he was talking about SinMin, maybe? :confused:

Valuist,

Comparing 'Saint to Point Given is indeed flattering. However, to say that PG lost to better horses, i.e., those better able to handle a certain pace scenario, is SO wrong. Those plugs, including perfect-tripping Monarchos, could never again warm him up. Say it's the CD surface, or just an off day, but please don't allege that anything another horse, or even Gary Stevens himself did, could beat him. It will always be a mystery.

To compare 'Saint to BR is uncharitable. BR's Wood Memorial was the kind of golden voyage Jason and the Argonauts thought they were in for. I give SinMin credit for more talent and a brighter future than BR ever had.

The thread, no offense, is counterproductive. It gives people that don't like certain horses a forum for concocting some doomsday scenario for those horses. What people don't see is that when they're through bashing 'Saint and Br. Derek and Lawyer Ron (I don't think he'll win the KD, but he's a marvelous horse), their compulsion to bet on the KD will have them stabbing with Steppenwolfer, Red Raymond, yaddayadda ... This crop is so much farther along than last year's. Afleet Alex was the best horse, but when he came up short, chaos ensued. That won't happen this year. The cream will rise to the top. If 'Minister doesn't lead them a merry chase, and 'Derek doesn't fire, 'Saint and Lawyer Ron will still run their races. If Discreet Cat is at his peak, he'll run well. Strong Contender will probably run his race. This goes beyond a cursory pace analysis.

[bettheoverlay]

Ive never really understood the relevance of "dream" trips in past races. What I want to know is who will get the "dream" trip in the Derby.

[Valuist]

The relevance is that dream trips make a horse look much better on paper than they were in reality. And those coming off "dream trips/perfect trips", in the long run, will be overbet. And there's no race I can think of that the trip gods even things out more than in the Derby. Usually those that have been having things their way, on lead or pressing a soft pace now find the pressure much greater. And stretch running types who are compromised by slow paces now get the ideal trip.

Toetoe-

I'm not saying Point Given wasn't better than those horses. I just don't think he was 100% wound up for the Derby. He had a dream trip at SA, and I don't think he was battled tested enough in early May. Yeah he did eventually prove he was better than Monarchos and Congaree. But maybe I'm biased; the 2001 Derby was the biggest score of my life so I can't knock Monarchos.....even if he never won another race. FWIW, Congaree ran a sensational race that day. He was beaten about a half inch by Pletcher's 55-1 shot (Invisible Ink) who clunked up to win the photo.

[toetoe]

Yeah, I was rooting so hard for Victor Espinoza aboard Congaree. He's the strongest jockey armwise, and he had his arms almost pulled off before turning King Cong loose on the turn. VE got his KD win the very next year, also with Baffert. I think he got the ride on Congaree when someone else picked another mount. Stevens on PG, maybe?

The Derby is one of the few times that even rational 'cappers really want to simply pick the winner, and usually anyone but a huge favorite pays decently. That's the only sticking point I had with your [dream trip >> overbet] thought process, now that I think about it, V-man. I'd say if I'm adventurous enough to try a stupidfecta on the race, I'll make 'Saint my single key, meaning he'll have to finish in the top four, just for starters. My sweet, southern sine-qua-non.

[LaughAndBeMerry]

I'd love to book Brother D, Lawyer Ron, SweetSouthern, and Sinister M. I wish I could open up a Betfair account in the U.S.:(

LBM

[toetoe]

That makes sense, in that you're backing a 16-horse entry to beat those four. However, betting good money on somebody like Steppenwolfer or __________ (fill in the blank) is expensive entertainment.

[Valuist]

About SNS, I'm not saying he can't win or won't be a contender. I just think these predictions of 10-1 are out of whack. While he's had good trips, I think he and Brother Derek are the only ones with 3 triple digit Beyers. There's no way the public will let a horse w/those Beyers go off at double digits odds. Illinois Derby doesn't get respect nationally? I don't know if thats true anymore. Ten Most Wanted went off as the second choice in the 2003 Derby off a win at Haw. There was ship ins from SoCal, NoCal, New York, Florida, Oaklawn and TP so it was a legit prep. Yeah, if SNS somehow IS 10-1, I'd bet him at that price. Seems like everyone on every message board is all over him. I just think by the time they load into the gate, he may even be second choice.

What's wrong with using a horse like Steppenwolfer underneath in exactas or tris? The horses that are HOPING to hit the board are probably going to be the ones who clunk up for second or third. I just hope Sunriver gets in because he is my favorite bomber.

[Valuist]

Check out the Joe Takach article on sucker bets part 12 that PA posted on the home page.

[toetoe]

I agree that Sunriver is Pletcher's best shot. :)

[toetoe]

I believe some "wiseguys" will be hammering 'Saint in the KD, but if, as I've read, the first three favorites are 'Derek, Barbaro and LR, 'Saint will HAVE to be at 7/1 or 8/1. In an 18-horse field, or I guess 14 (I forget how they do the "field" thing), the third and fourth favorites must be at decent odds.

Try this post-time line on for size:

'Derek ... 5/2
'Ron ...... 7/2
Barbaro ... 6
'Saint ...... 7
SinMin ..... 12
Steppenwolfer ..... 20
Point Det. ..... 20
!!!!!!!! ...... 25
%&%& ..... 25
Mystery Horse .. 25
Fetelbaum .. 50
Giacomo Jr. .. 50
No Hope II ... 50
Stabber ...... 50
##### ..... 100
@@@@ .... 100
Stewball ... 100
Van Berg's ... 100

My point is that with 18 horses, even though 12 or more are long, and 8 of those astronomical, the third or fourth favorite must be at 6/1 or 7/1. This line doesn't account for Discreet Cat, whose presence might raise other lines considerably.

[Valuist]

If I could get 20-1 on Point Determined, I'd hammer that.

Given the pace scenario, I don't think Brother Derek will be 5-2. I posted on another thread he'll be 9-2ish. And that's based more on the public. Realistically, he might be more a 6-1/7-1 type considering he's had good trips, he figures to be "against" the pace in Louisville, he's 0 for 1 away from Cali and 0 for 1 w/no race day Bute. Nice horse but he reminds me a lot of Snow Chief, who got caught into a vicious duel in the Derby.

[Observer]

I have to agree ... the top 3 favorites for the Derby will be:

Brother Derek
Lawyer Ron
Barbaro

It's hard to imagine anyone other than those three being under 8-1, if those three all go .. and there is no doubt we'll have 20 in the gate Derby day.

[Valuist]

Sweetnorthernsaint will be. The public loves big Beyers and big victory margins. His Beyers are superior to Lawyer Ron's. I expect him and Barbaro to vie for second choice.

[TommyCh]

Getting back to dream trips, I DID NOT like the way Solis finished the Santa Anita Derby. He started celebrating well before the wire and seemed to me to be mugging for the cameras as he crossed the wire. I have also heard accounts of how he rather abruptly pulled up BD 50 or so yards beyond the finish line. I don't know if this a negative that sits in a horse's mind, but Solis seems to be a bit of a loose cannon and I would love to know if BD's trainer talked to him about it.

[dccprez]

Getting back to dream trips, I DID NOT like the way Solis finished the Santa Anita Derby. He started celebrating well before the wire and seemed to me to be mugging for the cameras as he crossed the wire. I have also heard accounts of how he rather abruptly pulled up BD 50 or so yards beyond the finish line. I don't know if this a negative that sits in a horse's mind, but Solis seems to be a bit of a loose cannon and I would love to know if BD's trainer talked to him about it.

Wel,l I dont normally do this but I just have to take issue with this...

AS has always struck me as a model of professionalism and integrity. I've also felt that he is underrated and is in fact a top-tier jockey. It's just that the West Coast has typically been so competitive so some riders get overlooked.

The pull-up concerns me more than any perceived celebrations however I read/saw/heard that this was more a factor of the ease-of-the-trip tha BD experienced as opposed to any underlying physical problem or miscue by AS.

People who heavily analyze the gallop-out may in deed see this as a negative - and in that case Point Determined looked stellar.

Aside from that, AS gave BD a flawless ride. Sure, it's possible that his excitement over the fact that he was most likely sitting on the KD favorite may have turned into some slight over-exuberance, but in the end it seemed pretty like pretty normal reaction from a jock who wins a Grade 1 race, on the best horse, while in hand.

[toetoe]

Observer,

That in itself should be a bet. As no one is allowed to be also eligible, the ones that just miss cry in their beer when someone scratches on race day, as they still can not get in. Speaking of which, I predict one will scratch, maybe two. Over/under, for a weekend with Steve Whatshisname in Bradenton, Fla., including two free nights at Polesmokers Gentlemen's Club, IS ... 18 & 1/2. :jump:

Tommy Chong,

Solis pulled him up TEN yards past the line. Not just stood up, PULLED up. If I saw it on the replay, it had to be right past the line, as they almost never show the full gallop-out.

[TommyCh]

The only reason I noticed it is that it did seem over the top and I believe Solis took his mind off the well-being of the horse. If he's got a KD player, all the more reason to gallop out more smoothly, and by that I don't mean all the way around the second turn again necessarily. Solis is a competent jockey in the upper echelons who has had some success, but I don't consider him a premiere jockey. There was an excuse-laden followup article about it about how they had such a great trip and all, but I still think Solis zoned out. Plus, they were SUPPOSED to win the race, so big deal. The effect of all this in handicapping the Derby? We'll see.

[dccprez]

The only reason I noticed it is that it did seem over the top and I believe Solis took his mind off the well-being of the horse. If he's got a KD player, all the more reason to gallop out more smoothly, and by that I don't mean all the way around the second turn again necessarily. Solis is a competent jockey in the upper echelons who has had some success, but I don't consider him a premiere jockey. There was an excuse-laden followup article about it about how they had such a great trip and all, but I still think Solis zoned out. Plus, they were SUPPOSED to win the race, so big deal. The effect of all this in handicapping the Derby? We'll see.

Well said. Solis may have been mugging for the camera afterall.

[TommyCh]

By the time the race ran (Chicago OTB) and after a few longnecks, it felt like Solis was looking at ME. Eerie. :D

[classhandicapper]

I realize Kee has a reputation for being speed favoring and has generally been very speed favoring at this meet, but it didn't look particularly speed favoring the day of the Blue Grass - at least to me.

Are we so sure this horse had an easy trip?

If that track was honest what we have is a horse that got off badly, rushed up, set a fast enough pace to bottom out a bunch pretty decent 3YOs and after they all wilted chasing him and put up sub par speed figures on this supposedly speed favoring track, went on to record an outstanding final time figure.

I'm leaning to this being an amazing performance. In fact, so amazing the that his biggest problem is that it would be almost impossible to duplicate at 9F let alone 10F at CD.

Someone needs to demonstrate to me why KEE was a speed favoring track on Saturday. Reputation and results earlier in the week don't prove it to me about Saturday. If that track was so glib and not tiring, why did everyone that chased him drop dead.

[GeTydOn]

I don't know what you were watching. It wasn't the same Illinois Derby I saw.

You got that right!! It wasnt the same Ill Derby. I said "It ain't even close that Sinister Minister had a dream trip!" That was the Blue Grass.

There's no way in hell a battle between horse and rider is not going to waste energy. Loose on the lead or not.

[Valuist]

Yeah....and you're the same guy who said Sweetnorthernsaint wouldn't be below 10-1.......a quick look at Pinnacle shows him at +687....that's 5.87-1. He's under 6-1 and the Derby is 18 days out and we could see more scratches which will pull the odds down ever further.

[GeTydOn]

Glad you think so highly of him. No way I'd take anything less than 10-1 on a horse like that. Now all of a sudden one big race makes a horse a legit Derby contender? What is this sport coming to? And Pinnacle is the guru of early Derby wagering? What they say now is what we should expect the public to do on the most popular race in the country? Seem like maybe Churchill should let Pinnacle set the morning line instead of Mike Battaglia.

[falconridge]

including two free nights at Polesmokers Gentlemen's Club:lol: and :jump: , then :blush: , :faint: , and, finally, :sleeping: . Holy Batpole, Bruce, how'd PA let THAT one slip by?! BTW, next time you find yourself at the PGC, give Charlie Sheen my regards.

[Valuist]

GTO-

That is a pretty good idea. Pinnacle's linemakers are far more skilled than Mike "GAINING GROUND" Battaglia.

[toetoe]

Rumor has it that Danica Patrick is on the pole this weekend. Stay tuned.

Regarding SinMin, it's not unusual for the chasers to fail miserably after chasing a rocketship over a speedy strip.

[cnollfan]

Sweetnorthernsaint ... a quick look at Pinnacle shows him at +687....that's 5.87-1.

+6.87 on Pinnacle is 6.87-1.

[Valuist]

My mistake. Yes that is correct.