P3/P4 tracks

[Valuist]

A couple weeks ago, another poster mentioned that Gulfstream was a "bad Pic3 track". I'd never heard of tracks being described like that but the more I thought about it, its true. The great overlaid P3/P4 payoffs you see at some tracks just don't seem to happen at Gulfstream. But its probably also true for New York and Southern California tracks. The pools are so big that the market is very efficient. OTOH, tracks like Kee and CD are usually tremendous P3/P4 tracks despite having big pools. I would say, generally speaking, the smaller P3/P4 pool tracks are preferable to play.

[bettheoverlay]

That may be correct if you are playing the favorites in P3 and P4. Long price winners on your ticket, wherever, usually produce terrific payouts, the bigger the pool the better.

[Valuist]

No, I'm talking about the payoffs that you do a double take when you see them. Not the ones with solid favorites or big longshots. A sequence when maybe three 7-2 shots win. At some tracks, you'll occasionally see the $2 will pay showing over $300. But at these bigger pool tracks, you would be fortunate to see half that. Or a 10-1 with a couple of 5-2 shots. At GP, it might be low 200s. At the smaller pool tracks, it might be near a signer.

[garyoz]

Pick 3's really can be a crap shoot. Sometimes at smaller tracks you can be surprised on the downside too--I've been disappointed in TAM this year (although I was mainly a weekend player). I used to consider Monmouth a chalky and bad pick-3 track, but had really good luck with P-3's there last year.

I guess the analysis that needs to be done is sometype of ratio and/or frequency analysis of P-3 payoffs vs. the parlay payoffs. I don't have a database, and would guess that it would require some programming for those out there with an existing database. It would be interesting to see. Also to see if the lower take-out in Sam Houston is apparent in the data.

P-4's provide far greater value (IMHO). It would be interesting to see the P-4 vs. parlay analysis also.

[bettheoverlay]

I agree about the value of Pick 4s. They have been my main bet for almost a year. I still play alot of Pick 3s but only when I feel there are some live longshots in the mix.

I have never tabulated my P3 combinations by final odds, but am fairly confident that combinations where the odds on all three horses are less than 4/1 show a significant loss. But then I could never make a profit betting horses to win at less than 4/1.

[Valuist]

I think P3s are preferable to P4s because most tracks roll them. When I play a P4, I'm more likely to spread out to stay alive. But w/P3s, if there's 6 contenders, maybe I'll only use 2. If I lose, I can just start another one w/the next race. Of course, we may eventually see rolling P4s at the big tracks. I still don't know why NYRA can't have a P3 on the race that starts the late P4. Other tracks do it; often times the last race of the day in NY is lousy and I have no interest in betting it.

[OTM Al]

I think they can, they just don't. Their websites still say

"NYRA tracks offer Pick 3 wagering on all races - Rolling Pick 3's - beginning with the first race."

Well, they don't start with the 1st race they start with the second, which coincidently is where the opening p4 starts, and as you say, they don't offer one where the late p4 starts.

[Valuist]

I don't understand why. Their pools are plenty big enough to support full P3 rollage. I think they could even roll P4s.

[BlueShoe]

Sure agree with comments about NewYorks late exotics policy.On a 9 race card there have been days when I had strong opinions on the 6th,7th,and 8th,could not play a triple(pick 3),and watch my selections win.Often the 9th race finale is one of those awful NY breds in which you would have to spread 5 or 6 deep even to have a reasonable chance at the pick 4.This makes the ticket very costly,so often the bet is not made.Going down a bit,a bet that in the past was almost completely ignored is SoCal's rolling doubles.Have been paying a bit of attention lately.The obvious strategy seems to be play only when two short priced favorites look vulnerable,and to make very few combinations.Have seen pairs of 2nd and 3rd choice winners pay not too shabby prices.Any general thoughts on wise double playing?

[Valuist]

I agree rolling doubles are very underrated. To me its pretty straightforward; I need solid opinions on both races. Nothing complicated like a P4 where I may really like 2 races and really DISLIKE 2 races. When there's rolling P3s or doubles, it makes the decision easier.