Throw outs for the KD

[Light]

I think it's easier to eliminate horses from the KD than to pick winners. This is the most familiar I have been with the horses running up to the KD.

Playing in the AQU Pk4 contest got me familiar with Aqueduct stock and as I watched the field for the Wood Memorial yesterday on ABC,I thought "hey,I know those horses,what a weak field".

So here are some I eliminate.Not sure of course who is going to the Derby.

Throw outs based on races from looking at their form and watching the race

Wood Memorial.Like I said: Weak field. I've bet Bob and John in the past and I know he likes Turf so I figured he would like slop. Had nothing to beat but the lone pacesetter. Pacesetter Keyed Entry has proved he doesn't belong in KD. What makes the winner look bad is that longshot Jazil@15-1 would have beat him if it was a 1/2 furlong longer.


Illinois Derby: The winner,Sweetnorthernsaint, pissed me off. I bet him in the Gotham and he could'nt get past Keyed Entry.So where did this romp come from? Hawthorne was favoring speed or near the pace types. I'm still not convinced this horse won't regress back to his Gotham form rather than improve another notch as Emeril would say. Hollendorfer is still considering the Derby for Cause to Believe. After losing by 10 lengths to Sweetnorthernsaint,I can't believe he's still serious.


Florida DERBY: Allthough Barbaro is undefeated and won this race,I thought his competition was weak.Same senario as the Wood.Two horses all the way around.The horse he battled with the whole race,Sharp Humor,a lone speed type was coming off a long layoff. Barbaro really had to fight to beat this horse. I think Barbaro is better on the front end than Keyed Entry,don't think Bob and John would have ran past him if he ran in the Wood,and I would take him over Sweernorthernsaint,but I think he will have to be too used up in the KD to last. This is Todd Shrup's #1 pick to win the KD. Big reason to throw him out.

I have yet to see Brother Derek's PP's nor any of his races so I won't comment.

Conclusion: Shaping up for another Giocamo shocker to swallow the field.

[stlseeeek]

my throwouts:

Bob and John
Brother Derek
Barbaro
Keyed Entry

[Ron]

I don't understand how someone can throw out a horse because he's faced weak competition. I think I heard that with Smarty Jones, too.

[JPinMaryland]

what? You didnt like Borrego?

[xfile]

I don't understand how someone can throw out a horse because he's faced weak competition. I think I heard that with Smarty Jones, too.

I agree....and Who did War Emblem face before he won the Derby on the engine? He faced nobody good but he destroyed them in the Ill. Derby.
Sweetnorthernsaint to a perfect picture.

[linrom1]

I don't understand how someone can throw out a horse because he's faced weak competition. I think I heard that with Smarty Jones, too.

I used to rate horses in maiden races and AWX1 based on number of horses that have won in the future. Thus I would judge a horse who had faced future maiden winners superior to the one that had faced few or no winners. My logic was that if a horse had won a maiden race and none of his past competition has yet graduated, I would judge that he faced very week fields. Boy was I wrong!

[Light]

As far as throwing out a horse from weak competition,look no further than LITF.

How can you judge a horse as KD material who comes out of a race where only 1 other horse challenged him during the entire race and where those two horses had the track bias in their favor as happened in the Wood and Florida Derbies. That is either a weak field or a weak race and you know those horses are not gonna get the same cakewalk in this KD. Granted anything is possible but if you have a case to make out of those races for a KD winner,then make it.

[46zilzal]

unless ONE runner's style severly inhibits a horse's running style, the competition makes no difference. When a runner is so dominant that it simply runs away from the field :Spend A Buck, Secretariat, War Emblem the style interaction makes NO dfference as they just ran away from it.

[sam i am]

Brother Derek is a fast horse, but beating 5 horse fields in So Cal when he is the controling speed and 9/5 on derby day equals a throw out in the top spots derby day

[toetoe]

Light,

Of course the odds are in your favor, as all or all but one will indeed fail to win the KD. The flaws in your logic don't make your throwouts into winners, but some of your throwouts are keep-ins.

Bob And John is a hopeful that I'm not crazy about, but the evidence is still inconclusive. A win in the goo is kind of a throwout, but don't hold that against the winner. The string of logic starting with " ... liked the turf, so I knew he'd do well on off tracks (paraphrase alert)" is so faulty, it bobs in the john. Sorry, I just coined that. :) I presume you're saying that anything he does in mud is flattered to the point that he becomes a throwout in the KD. How about if it rains on Derby Day?

Sweetnorthernsaint has one throwout race, the third to Like Now on the inner track. I've heard he was very lethargic that day, for whatever reason. That's beyond a bettor's control, pretty much.
This horse is like a treadmill set on high, or the Energizer bunny. He just keeps cruising. Remember when I posted, asking opinions on him for the maiden race at AQ? Well, several folks said that, as a tactically speedy router, he'd find the splits too wicked for him in the AQ sprint. Sounded plausible to me. So he pops the gate and goes in 45.1 and 109 and change, and he's better routing! He doesn't go too fast early and hang on, he doesn't plod early and bungle up late hoping to get into the photo. He's a machine, AND he's Desormeaux-proof.

I'm not crazy about Brother Derek but, again, he hasn't shown a ton because he hasn't had to. I didn't hear that he had pulled up badly, as it appeared to me, so I guess it's all systems go for him.

Keyed Entry is looking doubtful, Cause To Believe, A.P. Warrior and Wanna Runner have to move way forward, and First Samurai may already be off the trail. Don't forget that many will still fall by the wayside.

Quick hijack: three-year-olds may dominate the BC Sprint. Too Much Bling, Fast Parade and Likely, off the top of my head, are tough, and Greg Gilchrist may be heard from. Likely looks like a beast.

[Light]

Toe

Don't you see the simalarity in running style with all these horses? They all either want the lead or want to be very close to it. This is my point. At 1-1/4 all of them battling with this E or EP style is going to make someone from the back look pretty good. I think Hollendorfer would agree with me otherwise why would he still consider sending Cause to Believe to the KD when he just got beat by 10 lengths. Not that I'm picking Dorf's horse. It's just that the Dorf obviously sees the KD shaping up with an advantage to a closer as I do.

[kenwoodallpromos]

First winners ara lonshots last weekend and it is a weak crop- then this week low- odds horses win decisively and that means weak fields!LOL!!
And to top it off there are more preps next weekend and more horses to get hurt!
I know who the overlays will be in the Derby- any horses who lost, or won by more than 4 lengths! LOL!!
Too many preps! Too many Derby lists based on who won the last week!
My pick to win is Teammate!

[46zilzal]

Don't you see the simalarity in running style with all these horses? They all either want the lead or want to be very close to it. This is my point. At 1-1/4 all of them battling with this E or EP style is going to make someone from the back look pretty good.

EVERY year one can eliminate about HALF the Derby contestants just on their inability to apportion their style to the required needs of 10 furlongs.

[Zaf]

With 5 MTP I will throw out any horse sitting at 6-1 or less and take a nice stab at an overlay or two.

Z

[toetoe]

Light,

I'm going to make a comparison, but don't laugh. It's not a thing like "I knew JFK and you're no JFK." This is just a point about running position and tractability, okay? In 1978, Affirmed, a front-running, run-all-day sort, was 5th or 6th in the KD for about 5 furlongs, I think. No-hope speedballs, actually some decent horses (Sensitive Prince, maybe Believe It) were going too fast, and Affirmed couldn't be chucked based on a cursory "Too much speed --- NO SHOT!" analysis. That's what I see "Saint" as: a tractable, front-running, run-all-day sort, while no latter-day Affirmed. You bring up a good separator, though. Some speedballs will fold when denied the lead. Others will get the lead and fold anyway. It's more of a quality/tractability issue than a rigid pace-analysis issue.

[Valuist]

War Emblem beat Repent in the Illinois Derby, who came back to just miss winning the Travers by about a neck. Granted there was some weak also rans, but Repent was legit.

Looking back, nothing wrong with Borrego and Purge as also rans behind Smarty Jones. I think there's a tendency to downgrade races that don't come on either coast.

[DrugSalvastore]

I knew Affirmed
Affirmed was a good friend of mine
Senator, Sweetnorthernsaint is no Affirmed

I have Sweetnorthernsaint getting a figure of 112 for his win the Ill Derby. I'm curious what the more serious figure makers, like a CJ or Beyer have.

I can't see how SNS doesn't get a faster number than Brother Derek got. That's not good news for the price you'll get on Derby day Senator Toe Toe

[DrugSalvastore]

SNS got only a 109

Brother Derek a 108

Bob And John a 93 <---- It's impossible to have confidence in that figure. Only two-turn race on an 11 race card, off track, funky windy conditons.

[xfile]

SNS got only a 109

Brother Derek a 108

Bob And John a 93 <---- It's impossible to have confidence in that figure. Only two-turn race on an 11 race card, off track, funky windy conditons.

Giacomo didn't have even 1 Beyer figure in the 100's last year. If I remember correctly his highest was in the mid 90's

[JustRalph]

I can't see how SNS doesn't get a faster number than Brother Derek got. That's not good news for the price you'll get on Derby day Senator Toe Toe

Here is an interesting fact.......if my memory serves me, Mister Triester ran 8 lengths behind Brother Derek last time out? He ran 9.5 lengths behind SNSaint........It was an easy $19 dollar horse to have in the place spot. I actually made some decent money on him running second and the exacta too.

[cj]

SNS got only a 109

Brother Derek a 108

Bob And John a 93 <---- It's impossible to have confidence in that figure. Only two-turn race on an 11 race card, off track, funky windy conditons.

I haven't dug too deep yet, busy weekend, but will today. I would agree SNS is probably a tad low, Brother Derek about right, and Bob and John, a tough figure to make. I would guess they are fairly close, and I'm really surprised the Beyer guy (Hopkins?) didn't "project" a higher number. I'm guessing the pace will come back very quick for this race.

[Valuist]

I gave SNS a 106. Anything higher and too many of the double digit losers are given numbers too high. Hawthorne rarely cards 1 1/8 races, so toss out the speed charts and make a projection for this one.

I think the pace was definitely on the soft side. The field was bunched; the longshot who made the lead held on for second, and the closer Cause to Believe up was close. I would estimate the race shape as around a 95 pace figure w/the 106 final.

[Light]

Hawthorne rarely cards 1 1/8 races, so toss out the speed charts and make a projection for this one.


This is an excellent point. I find distances that are not run regularly are usually inflated in terms of pace and speed numbers cause there isn't a large enough sample to compare with.I find 1 3/16 and 1-1/4 figs notoriously suspicious and inflated. I really got screwed this year with the new distance @Aqu ID of 5-1/2 furlongs. They were totally out of whack in the begining and every horse coming out of those races was looking superior to 6f races. They finally started normalizing towards the end of the meet as the samples grew. So SNS's figure will have to be adjusted downward.

[Alphi]

Brother Derek did look impressive. What impressed me the most was that the jockey never took the whip to him. But then, the SA Derby was a 1 1/8 race. The KY Derby is another 6 football fields longer. Also, his competition did not appear that good. Or Derek is the reincarnation of Secretariat. Maybe I'm wrong.

As we all know, picking the winner of the Derby is difficult. Too many variables and too many things can happen in a 20 horse field. Once they break from the gate they are all equal. The Derby might be the one race you throw away all your handicapping principles and eliminate all horses who won their last race. Then pick the 2 or three horses whose odds go up in value.

Good luck!

Would you possibly know where I can find the results for Santa Anita the day of February 18th of this year? Thanks.

Alphi

[JustRalph]

Would you possibly know where I can find the results for Santa Anita the day of February 18th of this year? Thanks. Alphi


check your PM's

[kenwoodallpromos]

6f and 1 1/16th mile probably many cheapy racers running those distances.
For distances of over 1 1/16th mile, what are the cheaper purse sizes for those races? (1 1/8th and 1 1/4 mile)?

[cj]

I come up with the following pace figures, assuming I will agree with Beyer for now: Wood 116 93
IllDy 103 109
SADy 108 108

[the_fat_man]

I come up with the following pace figures, assuming I will agree with Beyer for now: Wood 116 93
IllDy 103 109
SADy 108 108

Cj

Interested as to how you would interpret the 116 pace figure for the Wood in terms of the way the race was run?

It was essentially a 2 horse race until very late stretch.

Nothing ran in the middle of the race.

Scanlon's Song made a bid (from the rear) at the turn

and Jazil made the last move (from the rear).

The top 2 (up to that point) weren't threatend until just before the wire.

Which horse(s) ran best, given the pace (figure)?


BTW

Anybody notice Gomez's reaction after he had pull B&J up just before the wire, and Jazil blew by him just past the wire?

[cj]

I would say Bob and John clearly ran the best. I would say the 3rd finisher ran better than the runner up as well.

Jalzil would be a big time bet against for me, but he probably won't be bet much anyway. Maybe the TG crowd will overbet him when Jerry Brown falsely gives him an inflated figure.

[Richie]

that may be true, but he was an absolute must use in the wood regardless.

[toetoe]

My distinguished colleague,

Serious or not, you'll be in the cashier's line next to me, when the "Saint" comes marchin' in.

Mister Triester was my second choice in the ID, and tractability is important here. His failure against BD was a speed-battle-from-the-rail affair, and thus a throwout. I figured he could run well with a more relaxed trip in Chicago, and he did, while not threatening the winner.

[DrugSalvastore]

My distinguished colleague,

Serious or not, you'll be in the cashier's line next to me, when the "Saint" comes marchin' in.

I've married myself to that freak Discreet Cat....so, unless he doesn't show, I don't think we will be cashing together.

I've heard, now on multiple (2) other boards, that Sweetnorthernsaint's figure came back 120...but was "too fast to believe." Don't know if there is truth to that, but it's offically a rumor---the Simulcast Weekly will be out soon enough...and we can find out at that time.

I thought it was very cut-and-dry, and gave SNS a 112 figure. A 120 would have the other route races on the card going too fast, a 109 is just a tiny bit too slow to believe.

SNS is a real nice horse--he reminds me of two recent Derby winners---one is obvious, the other may surprise you....

War Emblem and Fusaichi Pegasus is who I'm thinking of. Both of those horses had tactical speed, and could finish races with ferocity.

WE needed to be either setting the pace, or controlling the pace while sitting in 2nd--or else he would not fire.

FP had great tactical speed, but he was much easier to rate than War Emblem. People thought because he was a speedy son of Mr. Prospector, he needed to be up near the pace in the Derby. Not so. Sweetnorthernsaint has yet to take dirt in his face---but other than that, I see no reason at all why he can't be rated in mid-pack, and still unleash the furious finish he's shown in all of his previous dirt races. Like Fu Peg, he's rated kindly in his preps.

People want to knock Brother Derek for the dreamy trip he got in the SA Derby. That's fine, but SNS also got a very dreamy trip himself at Hawthorne. One set an easy pace, the other controlled an easy pace in 2nd. Both of them will have a hard time reproducing those strong efforts without similar sweet trips.

[KingChas]

Let's See
1.A horse that in the Middle East destroys a field of who knows whats.
2.A horse furiously closes on a sloppy track versus staggering frontrunners.
3.A horse that destroys a small Cal field and isn't even ridden out past the wire.
4 A horse that leaves NY to destroy a field from the outside post at what track?

Damm sounds like the makings of another crazy Kentucky Derby. :jump:

[toetoe]

I see "Saint" as a less fiery version of Sunday Silence. Again, just stylewise. He hasn't justified my faith in him ... YET. A caller on JJ Gracie's show compared him to Sunny's Halo. I loved that one, but I forget what he even looked like. I know he rated kindly and held off Desert Wine in 1983.

[DrugSalvastore]

these comparisons can get silly. Each horse is their own entity.

I just had to listen to a friend try and compare Brother Derek with Snow Chief.

[classhandicapper]

unless ONE runner's style severly inhibits a horse's running style, the competition makes no difference. When a runner is so dominant that it simply runs away from the field :Spend A Buck, Secretariat, War Emblem the style interaction makes NO dfference as they just ran away from it.

I think you are actually making the point that beating a weak field can matter.

The stronger the field, the more likely a horse will have to work hard to get the lead, maintain the lead as he gets challenged by pressers mid race, and then repulse late challenges. (plenty of interaction as you suggest)

So given similar figures, I'd prefer the one earned against solid competition in a competitive race than one earned with an easier trip because the competition was weak.

Now if the horse runs away from solid competition, that's telling you that the horse was vastly superior to the other good horses. In races like that the pace is often solid , the challenges were attempted etc..., but they were all futile because of the superiority of the dominant horse.

That was case in many of Secretariat's races and a couple of Spend a Buck's preps.

People don't remeber this, but when War Emblem won the Illinois Derby, not only did he run very fast, the horse he beat (can't remember the name - Repent???) was the leading 3YO in the country at that point. That horse didn't go on because of injuries, but he was a hot prospect at the time. So WE did in fact beat a very good horses that day. I know, I had him in the Derby off that race.

I think there's a difference between running away from bums that are incapable of pressing and challenging you and running away from other very good horses.

[cj]

Beyer has (mistakingly in my opinion) bumped the Wood up to a 99. This 99 is no longer a Beyer SPEED figure, it is more of an overall rating.

[Valuist]

CH-

It was Repent that he beat. And Repent came back to narrowly get beat in the Travers.

According to Joe Takach's new angle, there's two contenders who should be tossed. The angle is "throw out any horse coming off a win in which they broke from post 10 or outward". The thinking is the horse had to work unusually hard to get the win, and will likely bounce. Takach knows more about physicality than anybody, so I'll accept this.

That means Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint would both be toss outs.

[cj]

Sweetnorthernsaint did not work hard to get position from the 10 hole. The Hawthorne track configuration helped of course.

[Valuist]

The horse reminds me a lot of Greeley's Galaxy. Horse ships in from out of town, Desormeaux comes in to ride, horse breaks from the outside and goes on to win by a big margin and get a big figure. In both cases, Desormeaux rode the horse out much harder than needed. He should've geared this one down. Judging by his effort in the KD, it looked like GG left his race at Hawthorne.

[classhandicapper]

I'm not that good analyzing bounces. I think it's even tougher with 3YOs that are pretty lightly raced. Horses like that are improving and can often explode forward and hold that form. From a theoretical point of view, I can understand how a very taxing race might take something out of horse - especially if he's already had 3-4 starts for the year. But in general I think a lot of things called a "bounce" are just normal variations around the average performance for the horse or trip related things. I won't be throwing out any horses because I expect them to bounce, but I might give extra credit to a horse that has competed at a high level more than in just his last race.

[classhandicapper]

Beyer has (mistakingly in my opinion) bumped the Wood up to a 99. This 99 is no longer a Beyer SPEED figure, it is more of an overall rating.

I haven't studied the day much, but I was curious as to whether he would bump it up due to the effects of the fast pace. IMO, this is the same error TG makes from time to time. It has the effect of giving horses like Keyed Entry and Bob and John figures that make more sense, but overrates horses like Jazil (and others) that did not participate in the pace and in some cases may have actually benefitted from it.

IMO, the correct way to do it is the way you do. You give the speed figure earned and the pace figure earned. Then the handicapper can clearly see how the fast pace may have impacted the final time of various participants within the race. As far as I can tell, you are the only one that consistently gets these races right (well I used to also when I made figures :lol: )

[Valuist]

Sweetnorthernsaint has yet to take dirt in his face---but other than that, I see no reason at all why he can't be rated in mid-pack, and still unleash the furious finish he's shown in all of his previous dirt races. Like Fu Peg, he's rated kindly in his preps.

People want to knock Brother Derek for the dreamy trip he got in the SA Derby. That's fine, but SNS also got a very dreamy trip himself at Hawthorne. One set an easy pace, the other controlled an easy pace in 2nd. Both of them will have a hard time reproducing those strong efforts without similar sweet trips.

I definitely agree with that last sentence. Not sure I agree about SNS being rated. I know you know your history, and Derby history has told us several things: if you need the lead, you better clear and not duel. If you are a pace presser, like SNS, you are likely in no-man's land. Horses who've been near the pace just don't seem to be able to convert to closers or stalkers in the Derby. They invariably end up making premature moves and fade badly or they get sucked into the fast pace from the outset. Either way, their "perfect trip" past catches up with them as the pace scenario shifts against them.

[toetoe]

Valuist,

Two things:

1) I'll watch it again, but KD NEVER rides his horses out.

2) Based on PP's, those horses we see winning the KD from midpack would usually be labeled as close pressers. If they can get the distance --- IF they can --- they find themselves farther back early (paradoxical for a longer race, I know) and race evenly to pass the 45-and-change, 1.09-and-change crowd.

[Valuist]

Toetoe-

I would say that was true for Silver Charm. And w/out remembering much about FuPeg, probably him. But other than that, its generally been top 3 early or deep closers. I consider Giacomo, Monarchos, Charismatic, Real Quiet, Grindstone, Thunder Gulch, Sea Hero, Lil E Tee, Unbridled, Alysheba and Ferdinand all closers. They were not speed horses (or pressers) going into the Derby and they were comfortable w/taking dirt and going wide.

[cj]

BRIS gave Sweetnorthernsaint a 114, which is about the equivalent of a 120 Beyer.

[classhandicapper]

BRIS gave Sweetnorthernsaint a 114, which is about the equivalent of a 120 Beyer.

Wow, that's huge.

I thought a 9 1/4 length win over those horses might translate into a higher Beyer than 109 because some of the horses he buried in there were consistent mid 90s types, but 120 seems way too high.

[toetoe]

My memory may be faulty, but here goes.

Foolish Pleasure: speed horse that had to sit, still won.

Bold Forbes: speedball, g-t-w.

Seattle Slew: g-t-w.

Affirmed: speedy, 4th early.

Sp. Bid: closer, but capable of early burst.

G. Risk: speedy, but rated very nicely 5th(?).

Pl. Colony: deep closer.

GDS: dead last early.

Sunny's Halo: speedy, rated 3rd or 4th.

Swale: ?????

Spend A Buck: g-t-w.

Ferdinand: closer.

Alysheba: closer(??).

W. Colors: g-t-w.

S. Silence: somewhere close, very ratable.

Unbridled: closer.

Strike The Gold: BIG ugly closer.

Lil E. Tee: closer(???).

Sea Hero: closer(?)

Go For Gin: speedball, rated in KD(?).

Thunder Gulch: closer.

Grindstone: closer.

Silver Charm: speedy, rated kindly.

Real Quiet: closer.

Charismatic: closer.

F. Pegasus: speedy, rated(?).

Monarchos: closer.

War Emblem: g-t-w.

Funny Cide: speedball, rated close up.

Smarty Jones: rated in second.

Giacomo: closer.

[Valuist]

I'm not sure how much Smarty Jones "rated" in second. He was right on the pace throughout. Go for Gin did go wire to wire, despite the fact Holy Bull was in the race. Alysheba was most definitely a closer, and Swale and Sunny's Halo were pressing the pace throughout. I can't tell you much about running styles before 1982.

As for that BRIS figure, I think they are less reliable than the Beyers. And regardless of who's figure it is, its really about HOW they got the figure. There's no way SNS should get anywhere close to 120 because all the also rans would have to move forward. I think 110 is still too high. Rarely do horses run back to tops earned in wins while they are double digit lengths behind.

[cj]

I'm pretty sure Charasmatic was fairly close up, more a presser than closer.

[Richie]

I'd be interested what you pace guys have to say on the SA derby, the e1 and e2 numbers appear to be basically the slowest of all the preps this year, which certainly did not help AP warrior.

saderby 83-92
Fderby 89-101
Ill derby 93-100
wood 108-121

[cj]

I posted somewhere what I had:

Wood, 116 93
Ill Derby 103 109
SA Derby 108 108

The speed figures might change as those were based on the Beyer's but the relationship of pace to speed won't.

[Light]

Toe

Your list of running styles of the horses that have won the KD is not very helpful if you dont list the type of fields the winners ran against. For example,did the horse wire the field in a race devoid of not only speed types,but of horses who can't compete with the speed of the speed? Or did the closers who won the KD win because the race was filled with alot of E horses with equal ability on the front end?

As I said,this KD is shaping up to be a race with alot of speed/presser types.And you like SNS? I hope you realize that not only will his running style be severely compromised,but so will his odds from the Beyers he will recieve from his last race. Remember Keyed Entry beat him on a speed favoring track and Keyed Entry is done.

[JohnNUtah]

If you think this plug will get away with those fractions in the KD he set Saturday, think again. He looks like another huge false favorite. I expect his butt to be toast in mid-stretch at the latest. Other than that, why worry about it now, long ways to go before race day.

[toetoe]

I approach it from the other end. A horse that has that rarest of gifts --- tractability --- can lead a field of plodders. He can also run midpack in a field of speed freaks. If AQ Inner was speed-favoring that day, as you say and I also believe, then S'n's't ran a better-than-looked race, as he did NOT get the lead, AND he was reportedly very dull that day, AND he survived Desormeaux. Saturday, he made his own perfect trip, from a wide post, ran his usual huge last furlong, AND survived Desormeaux AGAIN! I don't believe horses can run appreciably faster if they're abused in the final furlong. This guy just runs his huge races and holds his form. He just keeps going and going and ...

I agree that without context the running styles of past winners are of limited value. However, to say that Seattle Slew beat a field with plodders AND devoid of speedballs doesn't imply that he wasn't clearly the best, does it? Do you really think that certain past champions would be nobodies if a few more speedballs had lined up against them in the TC? If Eternal Prince popped the gate, would Spend A Buck spit it out? I say 'Buck proved that he was the best, regardless. I admit that sometimes mediocrities like Gato Del Sol or Lil E. Tee win, but those were fields much worse than this one. Give me a scenario wherein Malameeze or Steppenwolfer or some other plodding mediocrity wins this year. Brother Derek will fade, AND S's't will burn up on the Pace, AND Lawyer Ron will hang, AND Discreet Cat won't fire, etc? This is a field with some decent runners, and they won't ALL fail. It's not going to happen.

[JPinMaryland]

A nice list of derby running styles, even if we havent got a hold on what the rest of the field was like. Just for the record Go for Gin lead the derby from early in the back stretch, so he's more of a front runner, I guess.

G-t-w means "gate to wire" I have just figured out.

[KingChas]

My only question on this thread is the posters seem to think the preps are over.Picking their Derby winners off last weeks 3 big races.(Except DrugS he even fell in love with a horse before A.B. this year- :D ).The question I have for this forum is do you discount the 2 big races this weekend(4\15)-maybe feel the races are to close to the Derby? :confused:

[GlenninOhio]

I posted somewhere what I had:

Wood, 116 93
Ill Derby 103 109
SA Derby 108 108

The speed figures might change as those were based on the Beyer's but the relationship of pace to speed won't.

For what it's worth, Bris speed figs figures for Wood and SA Derby are much closer than Beyer:

Wood 103
SA Derby 105

I've seen Beyer express total disdain for the computer-generated Bris numbers and their lack of a human element but Bris can present a purely objective counterpoint to what the humans at Beyer do (for better or for worse) to get their numbers

[Niko]

Of the favorites SNS, Bob and John and Lawyer Ron. Lawyer Ron is competitive but too slow and hasn't had a long enough break to win a demanding Derby race at this point in time. I hope he steps up and wins the Oaklawn (if I'm not betting against him) so I have another favorite to bet against.
SNS..was the best in the Hawthorne field with a good running style for the race. If his speed numbers are that high he ran his race that day and will have left it at the track-Greely's is a good example as was mentioned. Plus, again he hasn't had a good rest and he'll have a tougher time running up front with better horses. Very easy toss for me.

Bob and John, ran a worse race than normal two back and then rebounded with a nice effort to win last. Probably matched or came close to his top speed 3 back. In big races this tends to be a very negative pattern in my experience. Looking at the pattern and again the lack of rest I'm be very surprised if he repeats. Very easy toss for me.

Barbaro: I'm not as concerned about the 5 week lay-off as I am that the Derby will be 2nd race off a lay-off and he tied his previous best speed rating without moving forward in a tough effort...I think a very good play against because he didn't improve if he was 100% coming into the race but I'll probably include in the bottom of the exotics.

I'm getting excited about betting against the fav's I don't like but I have no idea what I'll do about Discreet Cat (lightly raced but maybe super talented) and Brother Derek-very talented also. I'm not concerned Brother Derek had it is own way, will be a fresher horse for it going into the Derby. They'll be the key to how I bet this year. Have to wait for the Derby PP's to decide on those two

[toetoe]

You're a better man than I if you can anticipate sudden bounces by horses that have been cranking out consistent figs with tractable running styles.

[DrugSalvastore]

BRIS gave Sweetnorthernsaint a 114, which is about the equivalent of a 120 Beyer.

Yea, by comparison, the highest BRIS figure Holy Bull ever got in his career was a 112.

When 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper beat 2005 Horse of the Year St. Liam in the Woodward...Ghostzapper ran a 114 BRIS.

The highest Sunday Silence ever got was a 115. Point Given once got a 114 for his highest fig.

Some other notoriously fast figure horses: Formal Gold's fastest BRIS figure was a 117. Inside Information and Easy Goer ran a 118 Bris. Ghostzapper ran a 119 Bris.

Not sure if anyone has ever run a 120 on BRIS.

[Niko]

Toetoe:

It's pretty rare that I'll be able to or predict it to happen. Otherwise I'd be a rich man. This just happens to be one of those times....the biggest thing being the uniquness of the Derby and how horses come into it off it's last race.

Another rare time is when a horse has topped (run it's highest figs by X amount-it depends) out three times but didn't improve in it's last race or ran it's best early fractions...consistent but more often than not throws in a clunker at that point at that point at a low price.