Wood Day Track Surface

[Stevie Belmont]

Tomorrow is Wood Day. Last year's times were off the wall. Several horses posted career best efforts that day. Keep a close eye on any type of early speed bias. I expect another very fast surface. Im sure the track will be worked over today and tonight. Another possibility is a sealed surface, with some rain expected. Always a good way to cash in on the speedy types. Bottom line, pay attention the the speed bias.

[Cesario!]

Have you been watching Aqueduct this week? :cool:

[Stevie Belmont]

Have watched some races. I expect the front running trend to continue. The speed bias will be even more stronger tomorrow.

[Cesario!]

Maybe I'm crazy, but I've watched every race this week, and was there in person yesterday, and I've seen the exact opposite bias.

Any other NY players with thoughts?

[Stevie Belmont]

Well the races iv'e seen were horses that were on or near the pace. Also looked at the charts. I'll tell you this. I expect a track record to go down tomorrow.

[dutzman]

Haven't watched EVERY race....but have watched some.....just went through the charts for the week and looks like on or near the lead is the place to be.....

[Cesario!]

We're talking about Aqueduct, right? The track in NY?

I reviewed the charts, and while there are some front running, or within a length or two winners, the track isn't favoring speed right now. I consider a speed bias when horses that shouldn't be winning on the front end up holding their speed down to the wire. That certainly isn't what has happened.

[Stevie Belmont]

Well thats an opinion. Speed biased tracks certianly helps those types. Most of the winners have been with in at least 2 or 3 lengths and the mid way point. Alot on the front or even closer. A couple of closers. Anyway, tomorrow is what im focused on. I expect fast times.

[Cesario!]

Good luck to you! It's going to be a great day...in other races, it'll be interesting to see if Too Much Bling makes a triumphant return out East after his west coast success.

[Stevie Belmont]

Songster is a very fast horse. It will probably be between those two. Anything higher then 7-5 on Songster is a bargain. Hoping for 8-5. Hopefully Bling gets the money. Will key Songster in the 3's and 4's

[Observer]

...I consider a speed bias when horses that shouldn't be winning on the front end up holding their speed down to the wire. ...

I agree with that. I also wonder .. in a statistical breakdown, what percentage of winners are within a few lengths early? You know .. kinda along the lines of favorites win 33% of the races.

[Cesario!]

Songster is a very fast horse. It will probably be between those two. Anything higher then 7-5 on Songster is a bargain. Hoping for 8-5. Hopefully Bling gets the money. Will key Songster in the 3's and 4's

Well, once again, we disagree! Too much bling is a freak. The small-track lover in me is rooting for him. Long live horse racing!

[Cesario!]

I agree with that. I also wonder .. in a statistical breakdown, what percentage of winners are within a few lengths early? You know .. kinda along the lines of favorites win 33% of the races.

That's the whole thesis of the (un-original) arguments of THE POWER OF EARLY SPEED. Horses that are up or near the lead at the first call win a large share of races -- he has the exact numbers in the book. The difficulty, of course, is figuring out who those horses are. If we could place bets in the middle of the race, we'd all be rich!

But, it makes a strong case for double or even triple counting early speed in your handicapping. If I can find the book, I'll give ya some numbers later.

[lsbets]

Here is what I have on the dirt since April 1st at AQU:

Routes since April 1, 2006:
1st Call 2nd Call Stretch
Pos High 9 7 4
Len High 11.75 6.00 2.50

Pos Avg 3.69 2.38 1.31
Len Avg 3.11 1.12 0.25


Pos Summary 1st Call 2nd Call Stretch
1st 3 6 14
2nd 2 4
3rd 4 3 1
4th 2 2 1
5th 2
6th 1
7th 1 1
8th
above 1


Len Summary 1st Call 2nd Call Stretch
0 Len 4 10 14
1 Len 5 2 1
2 Len 2 1
3 Len 4
4 Len 1
5 Len
6 Len 1
7 Len 1
8 Len
9 Len 2


Sprints since April 1, 2006:

1st Call 2nd Call Stretch
Pos High 8 7 3
Len High 6.00 4.50 0.50

Pos Avg 2.91 1.91 1.26
Len Avg 1.39 0.63 0.07


Pos Summary 1st Call 2nd Call Stretch
1st 5 12 18
2nd 6 7 4
3rd 6 2 1
4th 3
5th 1
6th 2
7th 1
8th 1
above


Len Summary 1st Call 2nd Call Stretch
0 Len 10 18 23
1 Len 6 3
2 Len 3
3 Len 3
4 Len 2
5 Len
6 Len 1
7 Len
8 Len
9 Len

[aaron]

I've seen every race on the Aqueduct main track and I don't feel there has been any speed bias.Yesterday,I thought horses were able to close.Thrusday horses won from off the base.I think the track has played fair,but with the rain and the track sealed today could be speed favoring.Watch the early races to get an idea.

[Cesario!]

Maybe I'm crazy, but I've watched every race this week, and was there in person yesterday, and I've seen the exact opposite bias.

Any other NY players with thoughts?

I should clarify. I find most tracks to be so speed-favoring that when off-the pace runners can win, I feel it's the opposite. But, the track certainly isn't favoring off the pace runners, it's just been fair.

[shanta]

I am 20 minutes from Aqueduct and it is pouring rain here.

Kianti went out and swam down the street :)

safe day
Richie

[Valuist]

I remember Wood day in 2004 was a concrete highway with the rail like the sidewalk movers you see you the airport. Track management is so stupid; do they really believe artificially fast times are going to bring in more fans?

[Cesario!]

TOO MUCH BLING!


He's a FREAK! I'm in love.