Derby At Hawthorne

[toetoe]

I love Russell Baze and I'm happy for Cause To Believe ... BUT ... assuming KDes forgets to blow the ride, Sweetnorthernsaint will be leading in the stretch, and I doubt CTB will be able to pass him. I say this because the CTB bandwagon is SRO, and it's surprising. CTB ran a nice pass-all-the-exhausted-speedballs 2nd to Too Much Bling, then stretched out to win two at GGF nicely. But consider that neither AP Warrior nor Wanna Runner fired, and I'm not sure how good they are at this point anyway, and Sweetnorthernsaint won't just fold up late. I just think 4/1 is crazy for him, and 5/2 is low for CTB. Again, all this is conveniently forgetting DeSorehead's penchant for headscratching rides. Too late to get Martin Garcia? :D

[Ponyplayr]

I like the #4 Lewis Michael @ 20/1

His style of running should help him at Hawthorne.

[Valuist]

Forget those morning line prices. Lewis Michael will probably be under 10-1. Its Calabrese's horse and he single-handedly will ensure the horse is bet. I don't think there's a ton of speed in there. Apparently Desormeaux doesn't think Mister Triester has enough speed to stay w/Sweetnorthernsaint. And I think Frankel's horse will be up close but will rate. I look for My Golden Song to be overbet off a weak Fountain of Youth. I realize Pletcher has quite a few good horses but JRV made the trip last year and this year they're sending DeCarlo.

[cnollfan]

DeCarlo has ridden several live Pletcher horses at generous odds. Ramazutti, a game 30-1 second on the Florida Derby undercard, was one.