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ezpace
04-04-2006, 01:17 PM
So Many Claimers

"I'm not the only one puzzling over what it might mean that so many Kentucky Derby prospects have run in claiming races. Jennie Rees is wondering about the same thing:
Four of the past five major Kentucky Derby preps were won by horses who had been in claiming races: With a City [Lane's End], Lawyer Ron [Rebel], Deputy Glitters [Tampa Bay Derby] and Like Now [Gotham].
That says something, but what? Ideas from horsemen include:
Trainers don't know what they have.
Young horses change dramatically.
You're better off claiming horses than spending big bucks at the sales.
Too many top horses are controlled by too few trainers.
[Posted March 31, 2006 03:30 PM]"

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1.Lack of top echelon horses?

2.Foals killed in ky 2002?

3.Horses removed from racing for breeding $$$$$??

4TO many racetracks ???


5. TO MUCH DOPE SHORTENING THE LIFE SPAN OF GOOD RACING STOCK

kenwoodallpromos
04-04-2006, 03:40 PM
It means=
Caliming races nowadays have higher purses and not much chance of a claim being made, especially in MCL's.

kenwoodallpromos
04-04-2006, 04:18 PM
LR-1st start, 45k; WAC 40k MCl; TG and LN, 40k and 65k, 1 an optional claimer and both maiden or MCl, 1 a first start.
I do not kow how much they were bought for origianally but at least 2 of them were very large longshots in the preps they won.
I think a combination of better purse maidens, more money in preps to qualify for the Ky Derby, seemingly more diverse ways and prices to obtain colts makes for more ownmers and trainer having an opportunity to get their charges into preps.
Wiht some horses entering preps with relatively few races under their bets most anything can happen. Proof of that is that many horses winning the KY Derby are 8-1 or longer odds.

GlenninOhio
04-04-2006, 05:01 PM
And while not a Derby trail situation, let's not forget Brass Hat in for $15,000 in a maiden claimer.

No question in my mind that in these cases the trainers did not have any idea of what they had - very few trainers (and even fewer owners) would risk a claim to get an easier spot for a horse that's viewed as having realistic Derby potential.

Also, much depends on what the owner paid for a horse. If it's a homebred and the stud fee was modest to middling, a trainer has a chance of getting a horse that displays less than overwhelming talent into a MC event. But if a horse cost $150k at a sale, the owner will tend to be extremely resistant to a MC even if reality points to it.

But the bottom line as I see it is if the owner is in it for the "blue sky" potential of a horse that might be good enough to win a Triple Crown race (with visions of sugar plums and syndication) he's not going to risk losing the horse - even if the tag is $100,000 and the purse is $50,000. In the vast majority of cases, I'd say the horses entered in a race like that have already been classified by their connections as having some limitation to their upside.

Doc
04-05-2006, 08:42 AM
Derby winner Charismatic ran for a tag before his CD victory. Sometimes a dip into easier company is just what a horse needs to get some confidence. I'm not thrilled about the chances of a Derby contender who's run in a claiming race, but you can't completely toss them, either.

Doc

Tom
04-05-2006, 10:53 AM
Look at several horses at Aqu this winter that dropped to the very bottom - $7500 claiming and then suddenly get "good" again, rising back up the class ladder.

This used to be a phenomanon of the starter handicaps that featured long distances, sadly, no carded much anymore. On both NYRA and at Finger Lakes cheap horses would drop so they could become eligible for these races ( bigger purses) and many just toook off. On such horse at Finger Lakes, Toll Road Tommy, reeled off something like 10 in a row. Others went of to become local stakes winners. Something just happened to them after they got thier heart back.