I Need A favor

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Greetings to all members on this fine site.A good friend of mine who is a disciplined sports bettor recently asked my opinion on a mailer he received from John Piesen THE PROFIT MAXIMIZER.

I told Dennis (my friend) that this method was just another run of the mill system that is marketed to make money for the originator. I do not know this for a fact but i'd be willing to bet on it.

My question is there any members out there that can give me their opinions on this method so that i can prove it to Dennis.I believe that he would certainly listen to the advice of the members of this site, as i have voiced my praise for this site and the many knowledable members.

thank you zappi

[the_fat_man]

Any relation to the ZAP gun, ZAPP(I)?

[yak merchant]

Besides the fact no one on the planet earth with any brains sells a profitable parimutuel system, on math alone you should be able to prove it.

Dude John has a special deal for 15 bones to order the profit maximizer. So lets say 100 people are stupid enough to buy it. Let's say those 100 people use the system and bet 10 win on the "system horse". Even at a large track such as Aqueduct, those meager $10 wagers will change the payoffs and cost old Dude John more money than the 1500 dollars he made on the system in less than 90 Races if Dude John is betting $100 a race. Reason why the math works is, Dude John isn't betting a damn dime on the "profit maximizer horses". And even if the system was profitable, it would only be a matter of time (a very short time) that due to the increased use of the system it will become unprofitable. Tell him to stick to sports betting it's easier.

[Overlay]

This method has been mentioned in previous PA threads dating back to at least 2003. As far as I can tell, it looks like a variation on the theme that, since bettors who win consistently presumably bet large sums to win on their "live" horses, then there's money to be made by looking for a horse with a total of bets in the win pool that is significantly greater as a percentage of the total win pool than the horse's proportion of place bets in the place pool or show bets in the show pool, and then betting the horse across-the-board in a ratio of 1/2/6 (win/place/show). The theory is that the disparity in percentages of the total pool between win and place or win and show creates situations where the horse is an overlay to place or show.

I'm not saying that it never makes sense to bet place or show, but I tend to stick with win betting because you have a better idea what you're going to get back if your bet is successful; you aren't dependent on how other horses finish for the price that you're going to get; and you don't have to hit as high a percentage of your wagers or risk such a disproportionately large percentage of your capital to make the same return on a place or show bet as you do on a win bet. Ainslie said (and I still believe) that anyone with the skill, patience, and discipline to show a profit on place or show betting would make considerably more by betting exclusively to win.

[Koko]

Overlay,

There seems to be opposing views in the marketplace about whether horses over or under bet in the place pool relative to the win pool, are well-intentioned horses backed with smart money. I have one tote board reading book sold by RPM who, if I remember correctly, proposed the idea that horses getting smart money would be well represented in the place pool generally. His theory was two-fold. First the insider money was not certain of performance so they would "take out insurance" by placing money into the place pool as well as the win pool. Second, they wanted to hide their activities to some extent and also didn't want to hurt their mutuals, so they diversified.

Now whether the insider money in general does this or not the book didn't provide any data as I recall. Perhaps Piesen has done a study and has hard data on to provide on the question.

[Inglewood Flamingo]

Zappi, while I have not posted here in a LONG time, I purchased the method in question merely to learn more about the advertised returns and money management being taught in "business schools". While it was a system of sorts, it was certainly no point count or everyone ends up on the same horse type of method, as anyone else who has seen this method can attest to.
The point I am trying to make is that for a mere $15.00 what does anyone have to lose (it was an OK read) but what yak merchant posted in regard to everyone who uses it ending up on the same horse, I highly doubt this will ever happen.

[BeatTheChalk]

IMHO....Piesen is still trading on his success from years ago. And once you
buy .. you will get mail from Hurley on the East Coast and one or two others.
Basically they just sell junk and accumulate lists. My opinion i could be wrong.
Piesen always had the winner no matter what . He does write some good
columns in American Turf Monthly.

[timtam]

I received the profit maximizer in a package of copied systems I bought

off of ebay. The entire method took about maybe 1 page and it was basic

simple stuff which one might use as a filter as opposed to a system. The

entire premise is using high in the money % horses, high win % trainers,

and horses showing they can handle the class , surface and distance.

The entire pool scenario is looking for horses with unbalanced show to win

ratios and betting accordingly. He uses a $2 win $4 place and $12 show

or increments thereof. We have all seen this system in one form or another

for the past 25 years. I think Jon Worth uses the same scale of wagering.

It looked like a system which he used to update a mailing list etc.

I really do feel , however, many times you would land on the same horse if

more than one person handicapped a race. Lots of chalk.

I would rate it a 5 on a 10 point scale. You shouldn't get into too much

trouble with it because you are on solid horses but I can't see making any

big hits with it either. (not using his criteria for picking the horses anyway)

[toetoe]

Can't a system horse have an odds minimum? And can't another horse in the betdown's race become playable? Isn't that what the game is all about? :confused: