Florida Derby

[CryingForTheHorses]

What a race Barbaro ran,He is the real deal. That had to be one of the greatest stretch runs in the history of the derby. Congrats to all involved

[cj]

Come on Tom, you been smoking something? One of the greatest stretch runs in history?

[46zilzal]

Great strech runs have characters named Alydar/Affirmed Easy Goer/Sunday Silence or, my favorite, Runaway Groom in the Travers over EACH (Gato del Sol, Aloma's Ruler and Conquistador Cielo) of the Triple Crown winners that year.

[stlseeeek]

are the 3 year olds really this bad? none of these horses coming from GP have a shot to win the derby!

[46zilzal]

are the 3 year olds really this bad? none of these horses coming from GP have a shot to win the derby!
horses improve, often remarkedly, during the last month. Do I need to remind people of Charmismatic or War Emblem?

It is still too early to put out a reliable pecking order.

[toetoe]

I'm sure he meant the Florida Derby, whose history I am not familiar with. I will say I thought Sunriver had a huge shot, with Barbaro being a fast-track virgin. And Sunriver is your generic well-bred nw2-eligible colt. I can't imagine a weaker renewal, but Barbaro is still a threat in the KD. I just hope it doesn't draw more than 14 or 15 starters, you know?

[theyreatthepost]

Beware of horses making their final prep this far away from the Derby. It is a long time to be away.

[KirisClown]

Yes, it was an amazing race....

It ranks right along side Bull In The Heather's 1993 victory.

[DrugSalvastore]

Yes, it was an amazing race....

It ranks right along side Bull In The Heather's 1993 victory.

That's just mean.

[DrugSalvastore]

What a race Barbaro ran,He is the real deal. That had to be one of the greatest stretch runs in the history of the derby. Congrats to all involved

I don't think the FLA Derby proved to be as bad as some are suggesting---and it wasn't a dull race to watch, however, it was not one of the better FLA Derbies to say the least.

I happened to watch the '88 FLA Derby, with Brian's Time nailing Forty Niner on the money--the good sire Notebook was 3rd. That race was fun to watch.

[DrugSalvastore]

Here's some trivia.

Can anyone name the half sibling to Bull Inthe Heather who was a 5 time Grade 1 winning millionaire in the 1980's?

[Bubbles]

It was a fun race to watch. The pacesetter really dug down deep, and Barbaro, despite being erratic in the stretch, dug down with him. I, like others, liked Sunriver a lot, but I guess we all thought too much of his swift allowance win last out.

[46zilzal]

Here's some trivia.

Can anyone name the half sibling to Bull Inthe Heather who was a 5 time Grade 1 winning millionaire in the 1980's?
Heatherten (spelled right?) something like 27 wins in 51 starts

[DrugSalvastore]

Heatherten (spelled right?) something like 27 wins in 51 starts

You are correct sir

[BIG49010]

It was Vic's call, he just has a way of making a close finish seem like the greatest race of all time, it doesn't matter if it's the Florida Derby or 8k never win 2 lifetime. He must be on some serious drugs :lol:


Keeneland before they put in the speakers in the way for me:jump:

[plainolebill]

That was Sharp Humor's first time around two turns, hung tought.

[stlseeeek]

:13 for the last 1/8th


And they were all out. Yikes!! Guidrys horse should improve off that effort, Matz horse will bounce like a superball in Derby.

[JPinMaryland]

I dont know if it means anything but Barbaro switched leads quite early, like about 3/4 of the way through the last turn instead of where the track straightens out (the last replay on USA showed this clearly). I've only been watching for this a little while but I've not seen a horse do that. Didnt seem to hurt though.

[toetoe]

That would make it pretty hard to make the turn, wouldn't it?

[betchatoo]

I had a substantial bet on Sharp Humor and, unfortunately this was horse racing, not horse shoes or hand grenades

[xfile]

:13 for the last 1/8th


And they were all out. Yikes!! Guidrys horse should improve off that effort, Matz horse will bounce like a superball in Derby.

Did you actually see the race?. Your comments make it seems like you are referring to a race other than the Florida Derby. Question for your final 1/8th statement/theory. When judging the final 1/8th as strong or weak do you even take into consideratin how fast, how tactful and how game the previous eight 1/8ths were run?. You mentioned nothing about the previous 8 furlongs therefore suggesting your reading on the final eighth as "a half-baked theory". They did not run a one furlong race. It was not an eighth of a mile blowout at the Ocala Breeders Sale. :cool:

[rrbauer]

Beware of horses making their final prep this far away from the Derby. It is a long time to be away.

It's 5 weeks, not 6; but, in any event, all Barbaro does is win races when it's time to win them. Three different turf courses, a sloppy main and a fast main. Matz knows his horse better than we do. There's still time for some of the 3YO also-rans around the country to turn into monsters, but if Barbaro comes along side the horse you're down on, in the Ky Derby, will your pulse hold out?

[Tom]

I dont know if it means anything but Barbaro switched leads quite early, like about 3/4 of the way through the last turn instead of where the track straightens out (the last replay on USA showed this clearly). I've only been watching for this a little while but I've not seen a horse do that. Didnt seem to hurt though.

I don't know how you guys do that - see the lead changes. I'm happy as a clam if I can figure out the saddle cloth number!

It was a nice race to watch.

[bettheoverlay]

Barbaro ran a tick faster than Bandini with some quicker early fractions. I think the Beyer is going to be pretty good. Also he broke from the 10 hole, a big disadvantage at Gulfstream 1 1/8 races.

[cj]

I'm guessing the Beyer is between 100 and 102. I put it at 100, but I think he'll go slightly higher.

[cj]

It is listed here now:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2006/preps3.html

103 for Barbaro, 92 for the winner of the WinStar Derby, Wanna Runner.

[the_fat_man]

I don't know how you guys do that - see the lead changes. I'm happy as a clam if I can figure out the saddle cloth number!

It was a nice race to watch.

Ummmm

I'm with you, Tom

kinda hard to see changes DURING the turn (unless you have an overhead shot or something of that effect)


anybody ACTUALLY closely watch races here?

[the little guy]

I closely watch races, though more so when I'm playing more seriously, and for the most part I have been taking 2006 off. I will start watching seriously at Keeneland and will continue on through the rest of the year in NY. I don't understand lead changes, however, so can never pick up on it.

As for this year's Florida Derby, Barbaro is a very nice horse, and certainly of true quality on the turf, but I have a hard time making conclusive decisions about yesterday's race. The fact is the course was very kind to speed, and nobody made up any significant ground in the Derby, which is probably due to a combination of the surface and the overall lack of quality in the field. Barbaro was used reasonable hard early to secure good position from a VERY difficult post, and basically did what he had to from there, and certainly the speed figure was very strong for the horses we've seen in preps so far. Having said that, I still firmly believe a few others will earn respect in the next four big preps.

I think one thing we learned from yesterday's race, and I suspected it going in, was that the Fountain of Youth was a TERRIBLE race. The entire stretch was a staggerfest that gave the illusion of horses running that were really spinning their wheels. It makes me feel even more strongly that First Samurai is a total non-contendor in the TC chase. Right now I am very interested in how the likes of lightly raced Showing Up and Strong Contendor, along with the improving Deputy Glitters, do in the next two weeks.

[the_fat_man]

Barbaro ran a tick faster than Bandini with some quicker early fractions. I think the Beyer is going to be pretty good. Also he broke from the 10 hole, a big disadvantage at Gulfstream 1 1/8 races.

Finally some insite.

How bad/easy was Bandini's race?
Was he in against trotters?

And all the Pletcher supporters got a shock in the Florida Derby when Sunriver
actually had to make a sharp, wide, midturn move, into a fast pace and try to finish with horses that ran to the wire. Bet you boys expected an easy lead on a slow pace. Typically, the kind of trip that horses running against Pletcher's charges usually get.

Where's DRUGS? We need the BARBARO, BANDINI evaluation.

Drugs, use the Discreet Cat, LIF template. (Hope you save those templates)

This one will be quite a bit more one sided.

[the_fat_man]

I closely watch races, though more so when I'm playing more seriously, and for the most part I have been taking 2006 off. I will start watching seriously at Keeneland and will continue on through the rest of the year in NY. I don't understand lead changes, however, so can never pick up on it.



You're killing me. You can't be serious. :eek:

Stretch lead changes (or lack of)
are key to the race.

Maybe we can get Cardello to come out of retirement (doing figures and writing on the philosophy of the BOUNCE)
and offer some tutoring. :rolleyes:

[cj]

You're killing me. You can't be serious. :eek:

Stretch lead changes (or lack of)
are key to the race.

Maybe we can get Cardello to come out of retirement (doing figures and writing on the philosophy of the BOUNCE)
and offer some tutoring. :rolleyes:

THE key? Are you serious?

[DJofSD]

Lead changes - I'm going to start another thread for this.

[the_fat_man]

THE key? Are you serious?

Not THE key but KEY.

A key consideration when evaluating the overall trip of horse. Typically, a horse that actually 'runs' in a race, turns for home within striking distance and fails to change (thereby failing to sustain the bid in most cases).

I'm well aware that horses win on the 'wrong' lead.

A recent winner comes to mind (didn't pay much but still an example)

Bella Dorado, Dutrow's crappy, 3 year old, just graduated filly.

She changed in the stretch to run down Levine's horse (which was loose).

She failed to change her previous 2 starts (against a lone speed in the more recent ($35 exacta), and against 2 absolutely dead leaders in the other)

[JPinMaryland]

I don't know how you guys do that - see the lead changes. I'm happy as a clam if I can figure out the saddle cloth number!

It was a nice race to watch.

Ummm, it's not that hard if you slow down the video and go frame by frame.. You need a good shot of them coming around the turn and into the stretch. THe original shot by USA network of the stretch you really couldnt tell, the legs seem to blend with the ground. But near the end of the telecast they did another shot of them around the turn, it was a better perspective, I slowed down the tape and you can definitely see the change. For Barbaro it was real early, there was a substantial amount of turn left maybe 20+ panels? Hard to say. I checked him w/ Sharp Humor who did it right, he changed right as the track straightened out. Good horses do that.

Ohh, and if you're really good you can actually see the change when watching live. They have a little hitch in their gallop, actually they seem to throw the front legs out at the same time, that's the moment they change.

I also thought like the fella above that being on the "wrong" lead during the turn would make them bear out or do something. Maybe it depends on the horse?

Also worth mentioning, Barbaro did bore in a little on Sharp Humor about mid stretch but this didnt seem to have to do with lead changes. He also came out a little later in the stretch. Maybe he didnt like the footing? Hmmm. The announcers did mention this.

Also impressed that Barbaro won coming from the 10 hole which seems damn near impossible on that track. That's impressive.

Also are the early fractions down there a bit distorted? I mean they ran a 23 and change, for the first fraction and they said it was "honest pace" or something. But does the short run up to the turn there make a 23+ actually a bit faster? Havent watched this track at all, and I know it's new and all.Just want to know what you think.

[JPinMaryland]

SPeaking of lead changes, laterly, Dettori said Electrocutionist changed back to the right lead down the stretch at that Dubai whatever it was. I didnt see it on the tape.

Ive only been able to tape races the last couple of weeks and so far havent noticed any problems with the top horses and lead changes. You can usually only check the front runnning 2 or 3 horses since the others are too far back to see.

Last year 's 3 year olds, there were a bunch of weird things with lead changes. That horse that came in 2nd to Delcan's Moon at Santa Catalina, he failed to change until late in the stretch, but he was caught near the rail and horses act funny when in tight. Golden Shine I think it was, had one big win but he was on the wrong lead the entire turn. Not good. One of the horses used to jump shadows in the stretch, was that High Fly or High Limit? High Limit I think. Good horse though.

[cj]

The pace was a little on the slow side compared to other races at that distance. I gave it a 97 pace, 100 speed. Bandini earlier went 92-99, so his was even slower.

[the_fat_man]

Ummm, it's not that hard if you slow down the video and go frame by frame.. You need a good shot of them coming around the turn and into the stretch. THe original shot by USA network of the stretch you really couldnt tell, the legs seem to blend with the ground. But near the end of the telecast they did another shot of them around the turn, it was a better perspective, I slowed down the tape and you can definitely see the change. For Barbaro it was real early, there was a substantial amount of turn left maybe 20+ panels? Hard to say. I checked him w/ Sharp Humor who did it right, he changed right as the track straightened out. Good horses do that.

Ohh, and if you're really good you can actually see the change when watching live. They have a little hitch in their gallop, actually they seem to throw the front legs out at the same time, that's the moment they change.

I also thought like the fella above that being on the "wrong" lead during the turn would make them bear out or do something. Maybe it depends on the horse?

Also worth mentioning, Barbaro did bore in a little on Sharp Humor about mid stretch but this didnt seem to have to do with lead changes. He also came out a little later in the stretch. Maybe he didnt like the footing? Hmmm. The announcers did mention this.

Also impressed that Barbaro won coming from the 10 hole which seems damn near impossible on that track. That's impressive.

Also are the early fractions down there a bit distorted? I mean they ran a 23 and change, for the first fraction and they said it was "honest pace" or something. But does the short run up to the turn there make a 23+ actually a bit faster? Havent watched this track at all, and I know it's new and all.Just want to know what you think.

Let me get this straight, dude

You're tracking lead changes of all the horses on the turn

which means that, for it to be relevant, you need to check their leads on the backside, and the first turn, if relevant
which means you need the headons

which means that tripping a 10 horse field takes about 10 hours

no?

try following each horse of a 10 horse field around the track
see how long it takes

and you need to follow each horse cause you never can tell when they're
changing and changing back and changing back again, etc.


In other words, I don't buy it

My suggestion, watch more races

you'll get a clearer idea as to what's important and what isn't

[toetoe]

I think you just let it catch your eye. If you miss something, that's not a disaster, as no one can learn it all.

My three to watch:

Showing Up

Sweetsouthernsaint

Sunriver.

My mnemonic code for recalling them: Sh*t, Shave and Shower.

[the_fat_man]

I think you just let it catch your eye. If you miss something, that's not a disaster, as no one can learn it all.

My three to watch:

Showing Up

Sweetsouthernsaint

Sunriver.

My mnemonic code for recalling them: Sh*t, Shave and Shower.

I thought Sweetsouthernsait ran well in the Gotham. He couldn't gotten a better trip, IMO.

Sunriver, arguably, ran the most of all in the FD.

What impresses me about Barbaro is that he appears to be the kind of horse than can be strategically placed.

[JPinMaryland]

Let me get this straight, dude

You're tracking lead changes of all the horses on the turn



WHere did I say this? I said from the video, you can basically only see the first two or three horses in the race, at the top of the stretch. The rest of the field is obscured by the distance, dirt, etc.



....which means that, for it to be relevant, you need to check their leads on the backside, and the first turn, if relevant which means you need the headons

I dont know what is relevant or how much is relevant. I watch the video tape for what I can see, that's it.

But I dont get your pt. If you see a horse is one the wrong lead in the turn, or he doesnt switch leads in the stretch. Why would that not be relevant? Just because you didnt see what happened in the first part of the race how does that not make something at the end not relevant? Of course it's relevant. Not sure what you're trying to say here other than having a full set of data to handicap. But we live in a world w/o total information. I can use what I see cant I?



which means that tripping a 10 horse field takes about 10 hours, no?



I havent tripped since 1985 but if they still have those Snoopy blotter tabs out there, then, yeah 10 or even 12 hours seems about right.




and you need to follow each horse cause you never can tell when they're
changing and changing back and changing back again, etc.


Well I dunno, I thought they were all supposed to be on the same lead in the turn and they are supposed to stay on that lead in the turn. Do they really change back and forth like that?

I dont buy it. From the limited video I have watched, most horses stay on one lead in the turn and dont change. But again I dont see the entire last turn. COUld be they change, but this not my understanding. Can you shed more light on this? Do horses really change back and forth on turns?

In the home stretch, they usually stay on the opposite lead from the turn. BUt quite a few of them will change once more and get a little burst of speed. I dont recall seeing a horse change more than two times in the stretch, but you seem to think that they do otherwise.

Again I am at a loss, if I observe several races (probably 100+) since last year and rarely see a horse change more than twice in the flat, home stretch, I cant agree with your suggestion: that horses are changing back and forth all the time. makes no sense, but I am a novice, so feel free to correct me.



My suggestion, watch more races

Tell that to my VCR, he doesnt seem to know when Wire to Wire is on.

[the_fat_man]

WHere did I say this? I said from the video, you can basically only see the first two or three horses in the race, at the top of the stretch. The rest of the field is obscured by the distance, dirt, etc.



I dont know what is relevant or how much is relevant. I watch the video tape for what I can see, that's it.

But I dont get your pt. If you see a horse is one the wrong lead in the turn, or he doesnt switch leads in the stretch. Why would that not be relevant? Just because you didnt see what happened in the first part of the race how does that not make something at the end not relevant? Of course it's relevant. Not sure what you're trying to say here other than having a full set of data to handicap. But we live in a world w/o total information. I can use what I see cant I?



I havent tripped since 1985 but if they still have those Snoopy blotter tabs out there, then, yeah 10 or even 12 hours seems about right.





Well I dunno, I thought they were all supposed to be on the same lead in the turn and they are supposed to stay on that lead in the turn. Do they really change back and forth like that?

I dont buy it. From the limited video I have watched, most horses stay on one lead in the turn and dont change. But again I dont see the entire last turn. COUld be they change, but this not my understanding. Can you shed more light on this? Do horses really change back and forth on turns?

In the home stretch, they usually stay on the opposite lead from the turn. BUt quite a few of them will change once more and get a little burst of speed. I dont recall seeing a horse change more than two times in the stretch, but you seem to think that they do otherwise.

Again I am at a loss, if I observe several races (probably 100+) since last year and rarely see a horse change more than twice in the flat, home stretch, I cant agree with your suggestion: that horses are changing back and forth all the time. makes no sense, but I am a novice, so feel free to correct me.



Tell that to my VCR, he doesnt seem to know when Wire to Wire is on.

I don't know whether they can be on the wrong lead in the turn as I've never looked for leads in turns. I'm more concerned with pace 'moves' on the turn. I'm assuming, however, that, as plenty are on the wrong lead in the stretch, why not on the turn as well? Is this impossible?

Not changing leads is usually the sign of a tired horse (or inept jockey).

Being on the 'wrong' lead in the stretch doesn't necessarily mean the horse is not putting forth his best effort in terms of speed, however.
Plenty of horses win on the 'wrong lead'.

I think it's very important to note which horses are on the wrong lead in the stretch (and turns?) but
only within the context of the race.

If a horse has made a bid on the turn, takes it with some momentum, and fails to change, thereby hanging, of course it is very relevant.

Listen, I applaud your diligence. Far be it from me to knock someone willing to put in the time to watch replays.
My only point here is that alot of what happens in races is NOT important. On the other hand, alot is. But it's contextual ---getting to know the horses and their style/habits.

I spent a few years in the '80's taking race watching to its most absurd limits. I've been wanting to get back into the game for over a year now but I can't do it because I'm not willing to commit to the time necessary to view races comprehensively.

P.S. not saying horses change back and forth all the time (although some do make multiple switches in the stretch --owing to poor jockey) . My point was a change is relevent in relation to what has happened before it. A horse could be on a particular lead for an extended period of time and thus be laboring, or he might just have switched to that lead. Depends on when you come in.


Good Luck

[JPinMaryland]

yeah, Fatman, I dont want to say that watching for lead changes is key to anything. I basically started doing it because I had no other useful information to mine so I started watching for it. I taped Wire to Wire shows throughout the fall and spring, for the 2005 campaign....This year due to circumstances beyond control, I didnt have a chance to do this until the last couple of weeks. So I am basically just getting back into horse watching.

I dont think I learned much by watching lead changes, I have to say. I noted that one 3 year old, that ran a visually impressive race did it running the entire last turn on the wrong lead. He won by huge margin, and the fact he ran on the wrong lead just told me that he was still too inexperienced for Ky Derby. I'll pull up his name in minute...

The one that ran 2nd to Delcan's Moon I can hardly knock him for not changing, he was in tight and horses do weird things in tight. I wouldnt hold it against him. The other horse was High Limit I think who merely jumps shadows, not change leads. But I dont think it ever cost him a race.

ACtually there was one other from last year. Was it Wilko? He was one of those that actually change back and forth. I know I have one of his races on tape. If you have any tape of Wilko, I think, check it out, you can see him change back. I think they said that he actually does this in all his races.

This year I really have noticed any mistakes by the 3 year olds, the ones I have watched (except Barbaro) change leads right at the moment the course straightens out. Impressive.

Just for the record...I think it was Golden Shine who won a featured race in Calif. back in Feb 2005 and he spent the entire turn on the wrong lead. ANd Going Wild, the late Bob Lewis's colt, was the one who didnt switch until the late stretch in the Santa Catalina.

[toetoe]

JP,

That sounds like Sweetsouthernsaint, right there in your neck of the woods, at Laurel. What I'd like to see, so I wouldn't have to pay Joe Takach for it, is the runout-past-wire/pullup on video.

[gregrph]

Ok, kinda a newbie question, sorta off topic, but...What is a "lead change" that you guys are talking about in this thread? I've been a VERY casual horseplayer for 30+ years (basically going to Saratoga a couple times a year, more for the "ambience" than anything). Just trying to increase my knowledge or horse racing. Since I've discovered this forum, I've pretty much lurked and read as much as possible and know that there a a bunch of intelligent people here. I seem to be lacking in the "Lingo"!
Greg

[DrugSalvastore]

I don't buy this nonsense that the GP track was speed biased on Saturday. You had nine dirt races on the card---the post time favorite won seven of them---only two of the races on the card were won in wire-to-wire fashion (both by odds-on favorites) and not a single speed horse all day ran suspiciously or surprisingly better than I had expected.

If people want to see what a real speed bias at GP looks like---perhaps they can watch the races from 1/16 or 2/23 among other days.

Can someone please name me one closer, from the nine dirt races on that card, who looked like he had to fire and didn't? Oh, that's right, you can't!

FWIW, the sheets will have Barbaro's number a lot faster than Bandini's number. Barbaro ran 0.10 seconds faster, raced a couple paths wider when added, and carried five more pounds. And that doesn't even take into consideration the fact that Bandini got a lovely trip. Bandini set a slow pace, while uncontested on the lead, over a track that some (wrongly) think was very speed favoring.

Now, Barbaro clearly ran better than the Grade 1 winning older horse Bandini did on yesterday's card. Was it a case of Barbaro running giant? Was it a case of Bandini running horrible and beating a weak field? Was it a little bit of both?

IMO, Barbaro ran pretty nicely--he's a horse with a good look at running underneath and maybe getting involved in the bottom of exotics on Derby day. Will he win the Derby? I don't see it. Bandini, on the other hand, really was lackluster in victory. The 2nd place finisher, was a 37/1 shot Chilean bred who had performed kind of poorly in all four American tries. He was able to close the gap on Bandini and miss by just a length. The 3rd place finisher was a 30/1 import from Brazil, who earned just $37K in his 17 lifetime starts there, and didn't bring any kind of big repute with him.

Basically, Barbaro is better than some of his critics are suggesting--but I still don't think he's the kind of horse you want to bet on Derby day. Bandini, on the other hand, is deserving of tough criticism for his lackluster win---and if not for the fact that the handicap divison is so embarrassingly weak right now, I'd go as far as to say that Bandini will not win a top race all year unless he improves markedly.

[toetoe]

Bandini as a Grade 1 winner. That says it all. I presume that was as a three-year-old? I will say that Barbaro seems a more deserving Grade 1 winner than Bandini, despite the weak field.

[DrugSalvastore]

Bandini as a Grade 1 winner. That says it all. I presume that was as a three-year-old? I will say that Barbaro seems a more deserving Grade 1 winner than Bandini, despite the weak field.

Yes, he easily won the Blue Grass (a Gr.1) over High Limit and Closing Argument.

The top three finishers in that race can thank the weak crop they were born into for many of the nice accomplishments they have made.

[PaceAdvantage]

Ok, kinda a newbie question, sorta off topic, but...What is a "lead change" that you guys are talking about in this thread?

Greg, you're in luck.....have a look at the following link to another thread on this board:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=26866

[Valuist]

I thought it was interesting one very well known figuremaker had Barbaro as the "5th fastest horse going into the race". There's one problem with believing figures are EVERYTHING....it doesn't take into account a horse's willingness to win. That's why I can never accept the fact people who claim Cigar was inferior to horses that ran 2 or 3 Beyer points better than him but didn't have race records anywhere near as good as him.

As for the race, Sharp Humor had no excuse whatsoever. Barbaro was a bit wider than he was but they both benefitted from a relatively soft pace. I do think Sunriver ran a solid race; not only up against a soft pace, he steadied on the first turn and made a nice 4 wide move on the far turn. I don't know if he's good enough but he could pull an Invisible Ink (2nd at 55-1 in 2001) and hit the board.

Definitely agree the FOY has been proven to be very weak.

[rrbauer]

Overheard:
"Did you see that mutha change leads?"

"Nah. I was too busy watching the winner!"

[OTM Al]

Barbaro definitely has the "nose for the finish line" if such a thing really exists, but in watching the development of that race, I had to give a lot of credit for the jock (Prado wasn't it?) for getting him in a good position in the first turn. I simply didn't think he would be able to get to the front from that 10 hole, but when I saw his position as he straighened out going into the backstretch, I knew I was in trouble. I had 7-10-5 on my tickets, but not 10-7-5, as I just didn't believe he would be able to overcome the post. One of the better ground saving rides you ever may see at that 1 1/8 m distance at GP....I still don't know if I want him on top for Derby Day, but he has forced me to at least give him some consideration. I didn't think Sharp Humor did all that bad for his lack of experience. Flashy Bull was a bit of a disapointment. Sunriver was good enough to be ahead of the rest of the also rans, but frankly I don't think he really is that good. So of the top two you had a turfer and what looks to be a decent miler......don't think that says much for the Fla Derby this year

[Tom]

I
As for the race, Sharp Humor had no excuse whatsoever. Barbaro was a bit wider than he was but they both benefitted from a relatively soft pace. I do think Sunriver ran a solid race; not only up against a soft pace, he steadied on the first turn and made a nice 4 wide move on the far turn. I don't know if he's good enough but he could pull an Invisible Ink (2nd at 55-1 in 2001) and hit the board.

Definitely agree the FOY has been proven to be very weak.

I think Sharp Humor had an excuse - it was his first time around two turns, and he gave Barbaro everyting he had. I think it was a balck mark against Barbaro and I am not usinghim a seriousy KD contender at this time.
I agree Sunriver looked good - his record is impressive so far - improving horses, ran against a slow pace, depending on what his Beyer is for the FD, he might one still wroth watching out of this race, but I don't like anyhting else in it at all.

[TravisVOX]

Figures aren't everything, but visually, Barbaro wasn't "breathtaking." Lots are touting him as the second coming, he didn't win by open lengths and he will go once again off a break this time one furlong longer.

[bobphilo]

I'm glad to see that, for the most part, people here are acknowleging that Barbaro ran a damn good race as well as Sharp Humor, in the Florida Derby. Sunriver, considering his wide trip, wasn't far behind the top 2.
When Barbaro went undefeated on the grass, they said he woudn't be as good on the dirt. When he won the Holy Bull in the slop they said, he wouldn't be as good if he had to look a horse in the eye on a fast dirt track. They also missed the point that his slowish time that day was because he contestred a quick pace relative to the final time in that race. After his victory in the Florida Derby, after battling a game Sharp Humor through the stretch despite overcoming a horrible outside post, the knock was that he bore out in the stretch on a "speed favoring" track. I would say it was an "ability favoring" track since the winning front-runners were also the better horses that day.
The lastest knock on him now is that he is too short on conditioning for the Derby. Michael Matz is a considerable horseman who knows his horse and has said he will continue with the schedule that has proven best for him.
Barbaro may not win the Derby, but one of the 2 or 3 horses that has the best chance to beat him, Discreet Cat, would also be a throwout on the same lame theory that all horses need 3+ recent Derby preps.

Bob

[DrugSalvastore]

I thought it was interesting one very well known figuremaker had Barbaro as the "5th fastest horse going into the race". There's one problem with believing figures are EVERYTHING....it doesn't take into account a horse's willingness to win. That's why I can never accept the fact people who claim Cigar was inferior to horses that ran 2 or 3 Beyer points better than him but didn't have race records anywhere near as good as him.

The figures Barbaro came into the race with were all earned on the turf, and in a lone start on an off-track....I don't know how the sheet companies had him, but going into the FLA Derby, he was jointly 2nd fastest last out.

Sharp Humor ran a 97 last out and was fastest.
Barbaro a 95 &
Sunriver a 95 were each tied for 2nd fastest last out figure.

To say that Inside Information's race record isn't "anywhere near as good" as Cigar is a little misleading. Inside Information was 17-14-1-2 in her career. Winning 6 Grade 1 races, a trio of which by double digit lengths. She came back with an injury in two of her losses, and stumbled VERY badly at the start in her other.

[DrugSalvastore]

I think Sharp Humor had an excuse - it was his first time around two turns, and he gave Barbaro everyting he had. I think it was a balck mark against Barbaro and I am not usinghim a seriousy KD contender at this time.

I see your point Tom---however, it should be noted that Sharp Humor has an excellent endurance pedigree. His sire has thrown a pair of horses (Flower Alley & Funny Cide) who have both won Grade 1 races at 10 furlongs. The broodmare sire of Sharp Humor won the 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes. And, while the dam of Sharp Humor was unraced, she was a sibling to a pair of horses who were marathon runners in Europe--one winning at 12 furlongs while the other twice winning beyond 12 furlongs.

I don't know if it's wise to say that it was a black mark against Barbaro because he had to work to run down that horse. Sharp Humor came into the race off of three straight stake wins...and he had every right (from a pedigree standpoint) to appreciate the added distance.

I think Barbaro is ok...IMO, he can easily fill out an exotic ticket in the Derby. Still, being undefeated, he's going to take money and be on a lot of tickets.

[karlskorner]

From the Louisville Courier-Journal

HORSES THAT WON BOTH THE FLORIDA DERBY AND KENTUCKY DERBY

2001-MONARCHOS
1995-THUNDER GULCH
1990-UNBRIDLED
1984-SWALE
1979-SPECTACULAR BID
1968-FORWARD PASS
1964-NORTHERN DANCER
1961-CARRY BACK
1956-NEEDLES

[Valuist]

One thing about Sunriver; I think Beyer projected his NW1X number and shortchanged him. He ran a full second faster than the FOY. Granted we know the FOY wasn't real strong this year but he still is, IMO, the second best 3YO in South Florida.

How bad was the Lanes End? Superfly, who was 9 lengths BEHIND High Blues in Sunriver's NW1X win, went off favored in the Lane's End. High Blues was 18-1 in the Florida Derby.

[Observer]

Barbaro ran as nice a prep race as you could expect at this point. Unbeaten while handling a variety of courses and conditions, this horse is handled by a true horseman, Michael Matz, a Olympic equestrian three times.

Matz survived the Sioux City, Iowa crash of United Airlines flight 232 on July 19, 1989, and just WEEKS later won the prestigious Hampton Classic Grand Prix held in the Hamptons in August.

He has patiently brought his horse along, and it seemed there was a belief that the layoff he had going into the Florida Derby was a mistake, and that post 10 was impossible, and that he still was unproven on dirt. Barbaro dispelled all those thoughts. He proved to be a fierce competitor when engaged in battle, he was able to get into position despite a less than explosive break from the detrimental post and he proved a fast dirt track was no problem.

I don't agree that Barbaro was pushed hard to secure early position. He seems to me to have that desired tactical ability, to be placed where needed without loosing his cool.

He does still show some greeness, though. But there's time to work on that. He got bothered during saddling, but got experience with a crowd in a tight, cramped area. He swapped to his stretch lead while still on the turn, but only a few strides before straightening away. And despite not running the straightest of lines down the stretch, he still managed to have his nose in front at the wire.

It may be too soon to decide just how this Florida Derby fits in history. But I'm hoping it fits along the same lines as Thunder Gulch's win .. when he prevailed gamely over Suave Prospect before going on to Kentucky, where he paid a ridiculous price to win.

Sometimes it seems that horses who engage in battle are passed over for horses who win by open lengths. Always winning by open lengths is not necessarily the best way for a horse to prepare for the toughest task he'll ever be asked for .. not only the crowded Kentucky Derby, but, if talented and lucky enough, the entire Triple Crown series.
__________________________________________________ _____________

As for being able to track lead changes .. I can't see how overhead cameras would be the best angle to view this from. And when your eye is schooled at being able to pick up lead changes .. it's just natural to be able to see it. From me .. it would not take 10-12 hours to pick out a field and their changes .. however, ask me to watch a baseball game and call the types of pitches being thrown .. now that might take me 10-12 hours just for 1/2 an inning of 3 batters getting put down in order!

:lol:

[Valuist]

Observer brings up a good point about winning by open lengths is not necessarily the best way to prepare for the Derby; When I think of that, the first name that comes to mind is Discreet Cat, who was ultra impressive but wasn't tested at all. We know he's good but he hasn't been battle tested.

[Suff]

Figures aren't everything, but visually, Barbaro wasn't "breathtaking." Lots are touting him as the second coming, he didn't win by open lengths and he will go once again off a break this time one furlong longer.

I was fortunate enough to be there this year. I thought it was a strong effort from an eyes view. I took a powder on Doc Cheney. Barbaro certainly has a diverse undefeated portfolio. Won once in the slop, a trio of distances on the lawn and now a nice win a on a very fast track from the 10 hole.

I think he's worthy and if they keep underestimating him he's likely to see 4-1 or better on May 6th and in a big pool/field with the right 2nd horse he could make up a $68.00 exacta or thereabouts.

GulfStream was terrific. oddly it was not jammed on derby day. Despite the fact I saw no less than a dozen commercials on TV in the days leading up to the race. It was crowded, but not like you'd expect. The facility was in nice shape and it was a beautiful day.

[CryingForTheHorses]

I was fortunate enough to be there this year. I thought it was a strong effort from an eyes view. I took a powder on Doc Cheney. Barbaro certainly has a diverse undefeated portfolio. Won once in the slop, a trio of distances on the lawn and now a nice win a on a very fast track from the 10 hole.

I think he's worthy and if they keep underestimating him he's likely to see 4-1 or better on May 6th and in a big pool/field with the right 2nd horse he could make up a $68.00 exacta or thereabouts.

GulfStream was terrific. oddly it was not jammed on derby day. Despite the fact I saw no less than a dozen commercials on TV in the days leading up to the race. It was crowded, but not like you'd expect. The facility was in nice shape and it was a beautiful day.

Glad to see your alive Suff!! Looked for you on Derby day I was there for the first 3 then came home to the comfort of A/C a few beers and TVG.So sorry we didnt meet but was great talking to you on the phone,Maybe next year!

[Suff]

Glad to see your alive Suff!! Looked for you on Derby day I was there for the first 3 then came home to the comfort of A/C a few beers and TVG.So sorry we didnt meet but was great talking to you on the phone,Maybe next year!

Derby day I went up to that Bar I was telling you about. The barmaid (s) there are Katie and Talja. I sat there for two weeks. Katie is 21, a bombshell blonde. In a funny coincedence she was born and raised in Saratoga NY. Her Mother is a Waitress at SIRO's (inside). One of the Siro's partners put a call in when she moved to Florida and set her up with a Bartenders job at Gulfstream. She's a real sweetheart.

The point being, I sat in the last seat against the wall everyday. I was on the whiskey program and me and her swapped Saratoga stories everyday while I played the Ponys.

So on Florida Derby Day the gates opened an hour early and I was right there at 10:30 so I could get my Bar seat and save a seat for Charlie who was showing closer to the first race. No problem so far, I get upstairs easy enough... sit in my spot and 5 minutes go by and a Banana Head comes up to me and says "$75.00" to sit at the bar today.

"Whaaa?!! No way Jose.. get me the manager. So the manager comes over and I politic a bit. "Look, I've been sitting here for two weeks throwing $2500 a day at those godamn machines over there , while paying $7.25 for a shot of whiskey 10 times a day. I'm not going down for 75 beans to sit in "my chair". :D .

He gives me the wink and says ..."just sit there, keep it low for a few races and when your there through 4 races or so, you should be alright. He puts a little bracelet on me that you need to get from the first floor to the 2nd.
Then I give him the one that gets his eyes rolling
"I need a Bracelet for my buddy Charlie too!":lol:

So needless to say... as much I was planning on coming down to the Apron to meet you... By the time you were gone, I was just spreading my wings on the 2nd floor.....down a few hundred, 1/2 drunk and possessed with hitting a race.

btw.. That 2nd flloor bar is a nice spot. When you go up the stairwell just inside the gate, there are two bars that overlook the Paddock... the furtherest one down is a nice spot.

I roamed around. I drank at Mannys bar in the simalcast parlor a few times for a change of pace. Nice spot but no smoking inside. I took a few races in from the Apron but with no seating that did'nt last long, and I sat in the seats around the paddock for a few races one afternoon.

I got creamed at the windows for 18 consectuive days. ( long vacation). But I enjoyed the hell out of it.