Free Selections March 31

[traynor]

March 30 Results (8 bets)
#5 Wkl CLark Kent won at BM at $8.40

Current Status $391.80 - 424 (212 bets) = - $32.20

March 31 Selections
Palm Beach - Matinee
Race 6 - 42 exacta
Race 10 - 46 exacta

Wheeling - Matinee
Race 9 - #1
Race 16 - 61 exacta

Birmingham - Evening
Race 5 - 23 exacta
Race 13 - 21 exacta
Race 15 - 47 exacta

Dairyland - Evening
Race 11 - 34 exacta
Race 13 - 72 exacta

Gulf - Evening
Race 12 - 75 exacta

Palm Beach - Evening
Race 12 - 85 exacta

Victoryland - Evening
Race 1 - 56 exacta
Race 3 - 52 exacta
Race 5 - 53 exacta
Race 9 - 81 exacta

Wheeling - Evening
Race 2 - 63 exacta
Race 11 - #7
Race 16 - 87 exacta





Previous Results
March 1 - 5 Bets -$10
March 2 - 5 Bets +$ 3.80 (8.00 + 5.80 - 10)
March 3 - 5 Bets -$ 4.40 (5.60 - 10)
March 4 - 7 Bets +$ 7.20 (8.20 + 7.80 + 5.20 - 14)
March 6 - 2 Bets -$ 4.00
March 7 - 4 Bets +$ 6.20 (8.00 + 6.20 - 8)
March 8 - 6 Bets +$ 7.00 (33.60 [12.00] + 7.00 - 12)
March 9 - 5 Bets 0$ (10.00 - 10.00)
March 10 - 5 Bets +$ 2.00 (14.00 [12.00] - 10.00)
March 11 - 6 Bets -$ 2.60 (5.00 + 4.40 - 12.00)
March 12 - 1 Race [no race]
March 13 - 3 Bets +$ 6.00 (16.00 [12.00] - 6.00)
March 14 - 6 Bets -$ 1.80 (6.40 + 3.80 - 12.00)
March 15 - 11 Bets -$10.00 (16.40 [12.00] - 22.00)
March 16 - 7 Bets -$ 6.40 (4.40 + 3.20 - 14.00)
March 17 - 10 Bets +$ 5.60 (14.00 [12.00] + 5.40 + 8.20 - 20.00)
March 18 - 5 Bets -$ 5.60 (4.40 - 10)
March 19 - 4 Bets -$ 8.00
March 20 - 13 Bets +$27.60 (3.00 + 5.40 + 7.20 + 13.20 [12.00]
+ 3.00 + 14.80 [12.00] + 9.00 + 11.40 - 26.00)
March 21 - 6 Bets -$ 8.60 (3.40 - 12.00)
March 22 - 13 Bets -$ 5.20 (3.80 + 6.80 + 10.20 - 26.00)
March 23 - 9 Bets -$ 1.60 (4.60 + 6.00 + 5.80 - 18)
March 24 - 16 Bets -$15.00 (4.20 + 4.00(SCR) + 8.80 - 32)
March 25 - 17 Bets -$28.40 (5.60 - 34.00)
March 26 - 8 Bets -$16.00
March 27 - 8 Bets +$27.40 (24.00 [12.00] + 5.80 + 5.40 + 3.80
+ 4.40 - 16.00)
March 28 - 3 Bets -$ 3.00 (3.00 - 6.00)
March 29 - 15 Bets -$24.20 (2.00 + 3.80 -30.00)
March 30 - 8 Bets -$ 7.60 (8.40 - 16.00)

Good Luck

[traynor]

In response to Shanta's question:
"Over time" is usually the most recent 120 to 150 races for win models, specific to track, distance, and grade. At most tracks, there are only two to four races per day, so that is roughly the last six to eight weeks. Exacta models are usually based on the last 300 races, again specific to track, distance, and grade, or roughly double the time span of win models.

It has actually been an interesting experiment, because I never considered how differently things look from "your" perspective than they do from "mine." Modeling (currently) 14 tracks, we usually generate about 100 selections a day. Easy to bet, difficult to log in a "selections" file--which I have tried to keep down to a max of about 15 or 16 races. That was an error!

In a more specific response to your question, virtually all the races posted were "positive expectation" and have generated profits exceeding 20% for the entire month. The problem came in mixing tracks; especially Palm Beach and Southland, which have lots of ups and downs. In plain English, to take advantage of statistical models for racing, you have to bet the entire model. While both Palm Beach, Bluffs Run, and Southland have generated the same rate of profit they usually do during the past month, nearly every race I posted from those tracks lost, because I only posted selections for those tracks occasionally.

If I had to do it again, I would stick to just three or four tracks, rather than posting "filler" selections from other tracks on dark days, or days when there were only two or three selections at the "regular" tracks.

For a more personal (and less "statistical") explanation of "over time"; this model had generated over 15% net profit on flat win bets for something like the last three or three and a half years. Substantially more for exacta/perfecta bets. It is about as stable as anything I have ever seen in racing.
Good Luck