It's Over! Discreet Cat is my Derby horse!

[DrugSalvastore]

This has been the most agonizing year of them all following the Ky Derby trail. Last week was a terrible week for Strong Contender--a horse I happen to like a lot--he could have won the Lanes End by doing somersaults the entire way around the track--instead he was bumped out of the race while on the van. A catastrophic turn of events, that BADLY hindered his Derby hopes. Anyway,

We are almost in April, and I haven't made my offical Kentucky Derby winner pick yet--I've always landed on my horse by Feb. or early March in the past.

I know a lot of people like to take the "wait and see" route---but what really do you gain by doing that? I've seen and analyzed practically every single race that every viable Derby contender has ever run. I know the pedigree inside and out for every viable Derby horse. The final prep race is pretty overrated, yes--you will learn some things from each of them, but way too much focus is put on those races. You'll see a lot of people land on a flavor of the month type, who's giant performance in the final prep will often be circumstance aided.

Discreet Cat is going to win the Kentucky Derby! Regarding the Derby, I've always believed that it is most prudent to pick the horse who best fits the style of the race--instead of the horse who is the best animal overall. If I stay true to my rule, I would be picking either Bob And John or Sacred Light, obviously the two horses who I believe to be best suited for a fast paced ten furlong horse race.

I HATE Bob And John with every fiber of my being---and Sacred Light looks way too much like a slightly less talented version of Giacomo (a horse I got luckier than rat-shit w/ last year.) Also, B/C the pace collapsed the way it did in last years Derby--expect jockeys to ride speed types much more conservatively this year.

Discreet Cat is a truly special race horse. The term "freak" is very overused, that's exactly what he is though. This horse has done some VERY SPECIAL things against the clock in his brief career. Here's a look....

*Start #1- A dazzling debut win at Saratoga. This horse, as a 2yo first time starter in August, runs a faster adjusted final time than two other Grade 1 races on the same card! He ran six furlongs in 1:09.76, on the same card, the older and undefeated Lost in the Fog needed 1:22.56 to win the King's Bishop. First Samurai needed 1:23.25 to win the Hopeful over Henny Huges and Too Much Bling. That is unheard of stuff!! Something that is NEVER supposed to happen. The win resulted in a 106 Beyer figure. The best figure of any 2yo last year. After the race, I wrote a post discussing the mind bending insanity of what happened that day. In that post I said "It's an effort comparable with Ghostzapper, Birdstone, and Bellamy Road for most awesome debut win this decade." It was also an effort that recieved a better speed figure than either of those three got.

* Start #2- Discreet Cat, facing a very modest looking group in Dubai, breaks poorly in his return, and finds himself getting caught behind horses--dirt is being kicked in his face. He seems uncomfortable early on--and is getting everything but an ideal trip through the first three furlongs. That didn't matter. He won the race with supreme ease--in hand and geared down, just like a vastly superior horse with a nice trip should win...except, he really didn't have all that nice of a trip. The final time for the race was absolutley SUPERSONIC when compared with the UAE Oaks. A very astute gentleman who posts here, and talks with Beyer, said Beyer felt the number might have been as high as a 110. Jeff Seigel, on HRTV's Target Louisville, said he "heard from good sources that the figure would be about a 114." Forget about the figure though--just looking at the raw final time, Discreet Cat would have won the UAE Oaks by a preposterously large margin that day.

*Start #3. Discreet Cat is 3/1 in the betting for a reason. Even money favorite Simpatico Bribon is the most hyped horse to come out of South America since Candy Ride. Trained by Best Pal's former trainer (who guaranteed victory) this horse was undefeated on dirt, and easily won a stake race while spotting the field 15 pounds in his last start. Simpatico Bribon's rider simply planned to sit right off of Discreet Cat and swallow him on the turn. A bad plan, as they had disrespected DC's freakish raw speed. The super hyped Simpatico Bribon had to work his ass off to stay right near Discreet Cat through the first six furlongs of that race. He managed, but when it was time for the real running, he was an exhausted horse with nothing to offer. Discreet Cat won with alarming ease. Once again, this horse was AMAZING against the clock. His final time for the race was 12.73 seconds less than the ten furlong Dubai World Cup final time. Making just the third start of his life, he ran an adjusted final time almost as fast as older horses in the world's richest race!

It's hard to get excited about a son of Forestry being real effective at ten furlongs. This horse gets some class and stamina from the bottom of the pedigree---and it's the bottom that counts. His mother won the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes at ten furlongs. His 2nd dam is a full sister to the 1987 Kentucky Oaks winner. I don't think the pedigree will be his undoing.

Could Godolphin be his undoing? Only if they are stupid enough to not run him in this race. Godolphin's supposed "poor Derby record" is nonsense. The horses they have started in the Derby over the years, have been a collection of badly overmatched jabronies. For God sakes, China Visit was the only horse they started in the Derby, who I felt had so much as a prayer going in.

E Dubai raced in America at two. Wintered in Dubai. He came back here and stylishly took an alw race by 12 lengths. He proceeded to win the Dwyer and run 2nd to Point Given in the Travers. They didn't point him for the Derby because they felt there was doubt regarding his ability to get 10 furlongs. E Dubai won a Grade 2 the following year at ten furlongs. If you have a horse with talent, they can overcome Godolphin's silly management.

Discreet Cat has a strangle hold on the 2006 Kentucky Derby. And he is the DrugS Derby horse of '06.

[OTM Al]

He did look nice winning, but before you get too excited (well, maybe too late for that :) ) go have a look at what Blues and Royals did in the same race last year. By June the horse had died. If they actually run DC back in the Bluegrass, then I might be more interested, but not yet

[cj]

Good luck with that, but I'll pass. He'll be favored or second choice is my guess. I just don't think he is ready, especially after he travels around the world for the race.

[toetoe]

DrugS,

It's hard to get TOO excited, but you've managed. :D

Don't forget Formal Gold's first race. Highest Beyer ever, I think.

I loved that he rated in Dubai. That's not exactly a closer's paradise.

It's doubtful he'll even run in the KD.

[JackS]

DrugS- If this is your choice it might be better to play now in the Futures. Odds could be a lot better than on race day.

[DrugSalvastore]

DrugS- If this is your choice it might be better to play now in the Futures. Odds could be a lot better than on race day.

I don't agree---I'm waiting for race day.

He's the favorite in the future wager book right now---even with some mild doubt regarding how likely it is he will run in the Derby.

Remember, there are 20 betting interests in the race---several of which will come into the race off of wins in prestigious Derby prep races.

Even though Discreet Cat is vastly superior to every healthy American 3yo who has more than two starts---a lot of people will have doubts about him.

He will be a better price than either Fusaichi Pegasus or Empire Maker were--and those two horses I had no problem betting on race day, as favorites.

I look for Discreet Cat to be 3rd or 4th choice in the betting on race day, at healthy odds, and I expect him to win the race with alarming ease.

[the_fat_man]

I don't agree---I'm waiting for race day.

He's the favorite in the future wager book right now---even with some mild doubt regarding how likely it is he will run in the Derby.

Remember, there are 20 betting interests in the race---several of which will come into the race off of wins in prestigious Derby prep races.

Even though Discreet Cat is vastly superior to every healthy American 3yo who has more than two starts---a lot of people will have doubts about him.

He will be a better price than either Fusaichi Pegasus or Empire Maker were--and those two horses I had no problem betting on race day, as favorites.

I look for Discreet Cat to be 3rd or 4th choice in the betting on race day, at healthy odds, and I expect him to win the race with alarming ease.

Drugs

Very rarely in the (modern) history of the philosophy of science
do we find an individual that's both scientist and philospher.

You, Drugs, are both handicapper and philosopher/historian of handicapping/thoroughbred racing. (You also practice a bit of psychology of handicapping as well --whatever gets you through the day).

You are the Aristotle of your time.

Galileo had nothing on you.

Neither did DesCartes or Leibniz.

Finally, someone the equal of Helmholtz.


I will be following your following (get it?) of the Cat to the wire eagerly.


Question for you: how do you ever find the time to handicap/bet?


(All this is tongue in cheek, of course)

P.S.

The Medicis are looking for a philosopher of handicapping for their court.

[Tom]

Arazi, Part deux!

[bettheoverlay]

I learned long ago to never fall in love with a racehorse, at least for betting purposes.

[surfdog89]

Love this Cat too.......... He really is not three years old yet.... a May 1st foal...:ThmbUp: This Cat seems to be the exception to the rule that the sons of Forestry mature better as four year olds.... Hope the barn ships him west....... I agree with Drugs......... I have not seen a better looking three year old then the Cat....... I have seen all his races...... My Derby Horse is the Cat.... He has the pedigree on the bottom as drugs states to go the distance.....:ThmbUp:

[DrugSalvastore]

Arazi, Part deux!

That horse made his name in grass racing---his Breeders Cup Juvie win was VERY sharp visually, but not exactly an elite all-time 2yo performance when scrutinized. This horse will not have the hype that Arazi brought with him either.

I see no similarities.

[LaughAndBeMerry]

IMHO, and I make speed figures for most group and grade races worldwide, Discreet Cat's race rates a shaky a 108-112 on the Beyer scale. the UAE Derby. The World Cup was nothing special. I'd give Electrocutionist about 113-114 which not only ties to his timeform figure of 127 for that race, but gives Brass Hat a 111, and Wilko a 107 for the WC, in line with their recent performances. I say shaky, becuase the problem with Discreet Cat's race is that if you give him a 112, the runner-up gets a 102. Testimony, while eligible to improve was a dog in his US starts, winning but one race (in the mud on a speed biased sealed track) and did nothing in his two prior NAD starts to suggest he was anything special. It's quite possible the race fell apart behind Discreet Cat as if you tie it to the runner-ups performance it would rate about a 104.

JMO. We shall see.

LBM
.

[Skanoochies]

Would anyone have stats on horses performances, their first race back in the states, after running in Dubai? Particularly within seven weeks? (Discreet cat....Derby?) :confused:

[GaryG]

Since they have had racing in Dubai I have made it a point to bet against all of the returnees unless they were given a lengthy rest. Those were round trips though although the Dubai prepared runners in the KD have been awful.

[DrugSalvastore]

Since they have had racing in Dubai I have made it a point to bet against all of the returnees unless they were given a lengthy rest. Those were round trips though although the Dubai prepared runners in the KD have been awful.

There isn't a large sample size of Dubai prepared runners trying the Derby---the few who have, have been overmatched filth---I think China Visit was the only one who had any kind of prayer of winning the race going on...and he didn't have much of a look either.

[Valuist]

Laugh and Be Merry-

I was figuring about the same thing for Electrocutionist; about a 113 on the Beyer scale. Interesting about Discreet Cat's number because Testimony would've had to have run a big fig also; but DC did win handily so even if he really "only" ran a 102-105, you get the feeling there was more horse there and that he'd be capable of a 110.

Drugs-

Will Discreet Cat start again before the Derby? I think the horse is good enough but I'd like to see more seasoning. It also seems like these freakishly fast juveniles often get hurt. I think Jerry Brown has referred to it as "too fast too early" and there seems to be some truth to it. Al brings up a good comparison with Blues and Royals, who looked like a monster last year. But in fairness to Discreet Cat, I don't believe any of Godolphin's previous runners who made it to the starting gate for the Derby looked as impressive.

[Valuist]

Drugs-

You better find yourself a different horse. I thought something was up when Pinnacle still had him at almost 10-1.

http://www.godolphinracing.com/

[kenwoodallpromos]

Connections can always claim they have the best horse but didn't want to show the other up.

Did "field" drop out yet?LOL!

[Valuist]

OK, now doubt the Pimlico Special came up weak but Ivasor was able to win after getting his butt kicked by Discreet Cat in Dubai. Hopefully we'll be able to see The Cat running in the Travers this summer.

[toetoe]

I guess I didn't know that DC beat older in that Dubai race.

[samyn on the green]

Discreet Cat, who crushed leading candidate for horse of the year Invasor back in Dubai, is entered on Friday at the spa. Will be on track and looking forward to eyeballing this guy and watching this race, can’t wait to give him the full stare down in the paddock.

While the fan in me is anxious to see this potential star, the player in me is anxious to beat him for a huge pick 4 score.



3rd Race - SARATOGA -

[Maverick58034]

Some food for thought....

I could be mistaken, but I believe they were trying to get him ready for the Travers. However, they decided not to enter him because of a minor injury in a workout. A millionaire horse running in Alw OC? Is he trying to pick up a purse (unlikely, as GoDolphin stables has won almost 9,000,000 so far this year), or is this a workout race for him? Or is something wrong? Awefully risky at 3-5 morning line IMO. Is a killing to be made trying to beat him?

Tough call in my book.

-Mike

[Ron]

Thanks for pointing this out!!

[Maverick58034]

http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=19721


SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. - Nearly a year to the day since he won his career debut, Discreet Cat (http://www.ntra.com/stats_bios.aspx?id=17460) makes his return to North American racing in a third-level allowance race at seven furlongs Friday at Saratoga (http://www.ntra.com/track.aspx?id=3727).

Discreet Cat, an undefeated 3-year-old son of Forestry, has not raced since winning the United Arab Emirates Derby at Nad al Sheba on March 25. His owner, Godolphin (http://www.ntra.com/stats_bios.aspx?id=1923) Racing, decided to skip the Kentucky Derby to point him for a summer campaign that was to have included Saturday's $1 million Travers Stakes. But Discreet Cat got sick while training during the summer at Belmont Park (http://www.ntra.com/track.aspx?id=3726) and missed a month of training. The short-term goal then became the $150,000 Jerome Handicap at Belmont Park on Oct. 1. Friday's race serves as a prep for that.

[ryesteve]

He's prepping in an optional claimer for the Jerome?? This sounds really odd to me. A horse of this caliber should be prepping in the Jerome for something bigger.

[Stevie Belmont]

He needs a race. Does not really matter what kind of race it is. Why run against tougher when there is no need to? Horse is class. He has proved that a long time ago.

[Ron]

Two Stevies duking it out. Kinda makes you wonder, boy.

[ryesteve]

He needs a race. Does not really matter what kind of race it is. Why run against tougher when there is no need to? Horse is class. He has proved that a long time ago.
My issue isn't that he's running in this race... my issue is that a nothing race like the Jerome is being portrayed as their goal.

As for Ron's issue, I haven't got a clue...

[the_fat_man]

What's more interesting to me is the connections claim that the horse needs a race to get fit.

In an age where horses are running ridiculously few races, which means, of course, that most horses are trained up to races, the Cat's connections need to get him a prep race?

The horse had 5 months to get fit; wtf?

[classhandicapper]

What's more interesting to me is the connections claim that the horse needs a race to get fit.

In an age where horses are running ridiculously few races, which means, of course, that most horses are trained up to races, the Cat's connections need to get him a prep race?

The horse had 5 months to get fit; wtf?

He was pointing for the Travers, with a prep before that, but came down with a cold (or something like that) and they missed a few weeks training and had to start again.

[the_fat_man]

I get it.

My point remains: can't they train the horse up to a race rather than WASTE a race on an allowance field (which, if he's as promoted, will should just be a workout). I mean, the horse has run ONCE this year (and once last year?)

Yeah, let's not ask him to do TOO much :lol::lol:

Nothing like a "HYPED GOOD" horse that needs excuses.

Wow, a COLD!!! Not like he had a foot abscess the week of the Derby, missed valuable training time AND STILL ran. :bang::bang:

[Tom]

And what is your training record so far this year?

[classhandicapper]

Granted, if he's a superstar, training up to the Jerome shouldn't be all that much of a problem. But I don't see much downside to an easier race off a layoff when you are telling people the horse is not 100% yet. I have a feeling this horse is a bit fragile. Otherwise he probably would have had a slightly more ambitious campaign after Dubai, even if he skipped the Derby/Preakness etc... On the other hand, these guys are known for only running a few times per year and they may want him to peak in October instead of the summer.

[Ron]

I get it.

My point remains: can't they train the horse up to a race rather than WASTE a race on an allowance field (which, if he's as promoted, will should just be a workout). I mean, the horse has run ONCE this year (and once last year?)

Yeah, let's not ask him to do TOO much :lol::lol:

Nothing like a "HYPED GOOD" horse that needs excuses.

Wow, a COLD!!! Not like he had a foot abscess the week of the Derby, missed valuable training time AND STILL ran. :bang::bang:

What's wrong with picking up a check for a workout?

[the_fat_man]

What can I say: The horse is a SUPERSTAR

and if things work out

number of starts will be greater than age


something to work towards


sure hope he doesn't 'HURT HIMSELF" in that allowance race and

have to miss another 6 months


of course, if that were the case, he'd just retire with

is it 3? lifetime starts :lol::lol::lol:

why are we going on and on about this plug?

[toetoe]

Context, context, context!!

Who are lining up against him?

[Tom]

The line up so far - some fat guy and a boyo!
:lol:

[DrugSalvastore]

thanks for reminding me guys.


I heard they had planned to run him in an allowance race at Mountaineer Park, but the Sheik scrapped those plans after watching Nicole's Dream get the phantom DQ.

I realize this is a very salty allowance race---but, if this horse doesn't win in a gallop, something is seriously wrong with him.

Horses who run under Godolphin racing ownership have racked up 9 wins from 18 starts this year....a mere 50% win percentage...with several 2nds. Had Rondo not been DQ'ed in a maiden race, they would be 10-for-18. They also ran 1-2 with the entry of Rondo and Thought Leader on opening day. So, technically, they have run horses in 17 races and crossed the wire first in 10 of them.

Unless Discreet Cat comes out on crutches, they should pad those stats.

Both parts of the Rick Dutrow Jr. entry have a triple digit beyer in there last dirt start--and Todd Pletcher has a Fu Peg import who was beaten less than a length in a Group 1 race down under....so, at least he's not facing filth.

[KingChas]

thanks for reminding me guys.
I realize this is a very salty allowance race---but, if this horse doesn't win in a gallop, something is seriously wrong with him.



Bettors beware DWL is primed for the upset with the famous Cal/G-1.
Router.
Going Wild ready to pounce at a 7F NY sprint ;) !

[DrugSalvastore]

Going Wild is a bum

[Maverick58034]

Another thing to ponder...

I forget what the exact stats are, but I am pretty sure its a very low % of horses who win their next North American start after running in UAE. So maybe this race is a conditioning race for better things to come. Or, they think he might not be the same horse as before, and are seeing what he has left. He has banked over $1.2 million already, so I can't see why they would risk injury in a mere 75k allowance race -- unless it is truely a paid workout/prep for better things. The whole thing just smells fishy to me. Then again, he probably sets a new track record just to spite me...

[toetoe]

For all of us, I pray they don't scratch him. Pretty please? :jump:

[ryesteve]

Ok, someone try to convince me now that running in this race, rather than say, the King's Bishop tomorrow, made any sense at all...

[cj]

Sure it did. The goal for this horse is not the King's Bishop. He had a paid public workout. If he runs in the stake tomorrow, he might have to run very fast off of a pretty long layoff. I'm not a big bounce believer, but I think running too hard first time back is a definite negative.

So, in the end, they got what they wanted. It was a useful work, without being overly taxed.

[keilan]

Ok, someone try to convince me now that running in this race, rather than say, the King's Bishop tomorrow, made any sense at all...


Did you think that the connections of “Discreet Cat” would run a sore or unfit horse? These guys spot their horses where they believe the horse will benefit the most long term. The King Bishop is hardly the race they were trying to win a year ago.

[keilan]

Sure it did. The goal for this horse is not the King's Bishop. He had a paid public workout. If he runs in the stake tomorrow, he might have to run very fast off of a pretty long layoff. I'm not a big bounce believer, but I think running too hard first time back is a definite negative.

So, in the end, they got what they wanted. It was a useful work, without being overly taxed.


Craig you and I are on the same page and I stated on your site earlier 4/5 would have been a good win wager.

[rgustafson]

Loved the way he was able to relax off the pace after being away for so long. They will be able to position the horse in a race wherever they want to without needing any particilar pace scenario.

[ryesteve]

Did you think that the connections of “Discreet Cat” would run a sore or unfit horse?
I'm not sure what you think my comment was implying. My point was, the Breeder's Cup is just 2 months away. Assuming that's their goal, I'm surprised that a jog around the track this late in the year would be considered all that helpful. But hey, I'll defer to those who know better.

[Walter]

Discreet Cat quoted as 16/1 for the Breeders Cup Classic. here 'over the pond'

[DrugSalvastore]

Unless Discreet Cat comes out on crutches, they should pad those stats.

No crutches.

Godolphin runners have now crossed the wire first in 11 of 18 North American races entered.

When you buy and breed the best of the best and only choose to run a very select group under the Godolphin name...that kind of helps. Oh yea, running in cake-walk spots doesn't hurt either.

They have a horse named Afrashad, who still holds the record with an insane 1/4 mile work at the OBS April say in Bo Jackson like 20 3/5ths....they actually ran that horse in an ALW race at Monmouth Park. It's ridiculous.

I'm not sure I agree with you guys about the way Godolphin is spotting these horses. They are taking fragile and explosive horses, who have trouble putting races together, and wasting their big efforts in ALW races.

The greatest sprinting performance I've seen was Mazel Trick in the '99 Triple Bend Handicap. Bobby Frankel had him off for nine months coming into that race. This horse was training so well and was said to be pretty fragile. Frankel returned him in a Grade 2 sprint off that long layoff because he wasn't sure how many good races he could get out of this horse. Mazel Trick easily won the race, and ran 7 furlongs in a supersonic 1:19 and change, totally obliterating Hollywood Park's track record...and that record he set will stand the test of time. Mazel Trick only ran one more time, a facile win around two-turns in the San Diego Handicap with a 119 Beyer...he broke his leg in preperation for the Pacific Classic. He actually has a son named Outcashem who runs now, and has won 15 of his last 16 starts, mainly going 4.5 and 5 furlongs.

Anyway, I personally question Godolphin's handling of both Discreet Cat and Afrashad. I hope DC doesn't run two nice races, and after which he decinagrates, like Afrashad seems to have.

When you have a horse like Discreet Cat, and your big plan is to win an allowance race and the Jerome with him....you are shooting way too low. It would be like taking Tiger Woods...and pointing him for the Ripley Open on the Peak N Peak golf tour.

[the_fat_man]

Sanity returns to the forum.:faint:

[joeyspicks]

No crutches.


...they actually ran that horse in an ALW race at Monmouth Park. It's ridiculous.


Anyway, I personally question Godolphin's handling of both Discreet Cat and Afrashad.

When you have a horse like Discreet Cat, and your big plan is to win an allowance race and the Jerome with him....you are shooting way too low. It would be like taking Tiger Woods...and pointing him for the Ripley Open on the Peak N Peak golf tour.

AMEN :ThmbUp:

[keilan]

Let’s try and be reasonable guys – Tiger has won 50 times on tour and Discreet Cat has raced three times before today and two of those weren’t on this continent, hardly a fair comparison. While they publicly stated sometime ago that they were pointing him towards the Jerome that could very well change after today’s performance provided he comes out of the race in good shape.

Somehow players on this forum seem to think that every good horse should take on the toughest races available to them even when the horse is relatively green and hasn’t been in a race situation in many months. Would you all be satisfied if each owner/trainer were to spot their horses in races when the horse wasn’t mentally/physically prepared? Do you all believe these horses are machines, press the button and go?

I was outspoken about Lost in the Fog and supported the management decisions that were made with that horse, I’ve rarely backed a young horse that didn’t turn out to be something pretty damn good and who knows how good LITF would have been this year without the sickness. Discreet Cat is as good a 3yo as I’ve seen in a long time.

I would much rather see management show a genuine regard for the horse than this macho mentality of charging every hill. Hell even Ali had to fight some stiffs to stay sharp or get sharp.

[keilan]

Before anyone flies into a rant consider where Barbaro might be if his management worked under a different philosophy

[RXB]

Damn few trainers are "charging every hill" with their horses these days. They can't; the animals are too brittle.

[Tom]

DC drew away from the filed like a fat man at a buffet line!

I thinkg it was a smart move by his people- nice, east race, good time, has to help his condition, not hurt it, and you know he is point ot the BC, not the Jerome. Only one race really counts this year. And it wasn' t run today.
And it ain't the Jerome.
Anyone remember Kelso running 7 fulrong allowance races early in the year?
Forgo?

Like Cj says, you run 121 in the morning, you get a nice article in DRF about you. You do it in the afternoon, you get $30,000+ for it.

[ryesteve]

Anyone remember Kelso running 7 fulrong allowance races early in the year?
Forgo?Yes... EARLY IN THE YEAR. As I said, it's seems like it's a little late in the year to casually ease into the BC

Somehow players on this forum seem to think that every good horse should take on the toughest races available to themExactly who said that? There's a hell of a lot of middle ground between "the toughest race available" and an optional claimer.

[KingChas]

I sure would like to hear how some armchair amature trainers would have handled Barbaro.
Of course this is after the fact.
Par for the course. :sleeping:

[Tom]

Yes... EARLY IN THE YEAR. As I said, it's seems like it's a little late in the year to casually ease into the BC



Says who???

He's only races twice this year, 5 months ago. Very good races, then a rest.

Why is it late? Why is in not a good idea to show up on BC day fresh?
I wouldn't call 1.21 casual, either.

How many good horses fall out late in the year, or jsut mis-fire on BC day.
This stable is 11 for 18 in the US. I think they might know what they are doing.

[ryesteve]

think they might know what they are doing.
I'll defer to those who know better.

And as for you:

I sure would like to hear how some armchair amature trainers would have handled Barbaro.
Of course this is after the fact.:sleeping:
If you don't want discussion after the fact, and you don't want discussion before the fact, we're pretty much out of options, so by all means, don't let us disturb your nap.

[PaceAdvantage]

There's a hell of a lot of middle ground between "the toughest race available" and an optional claimer.

You state this like an Allowance-OC carries with it some sort of stigma....perhaps when they first appeared on the scene, but not anymore...not to the reasonable racing fan.....

[KingChas]

...not to the reasonable racing fan.....

Ditto.......................... :sleeping:

[OTM Al]

That was a NW3X as well. Runners at that condition are generally good enough to be winning listed stakes. Its not like he was running in a SNW1X or somethiing along those lines

[Tom]

Feel free to bet against him anytime.:D

[ryesteve]

You state this like an Allowance-OC carries with it some sort of stigma....perhaps when they first appeared on the scene, but not anymore...not to the reasonable racing fan.....
No, I didn't state it like there's a stigma attached... I simply meant exactly what I said... that there's a broad swath between an OC and "the toughest race available". If Bluegrass Cat gets toasted today, and his connections decide that it's not worth trying again in the BC, I don't think their plan B is going to be to start scanning the condition book looking for a NW3 in '06.

It'd be great if you guys would just deal with what I'm actually typing, rather than assuming there are hidden inferences.

If I wonder aloud whether or not that race was a useful prep 60 days out from the BC, that does not imply my preferred alternative would be to throw him into "the toughest race available"

If, in defense of the above, I point out that an OC doesn't occupy the next rung of the class ladder just under "the toughest race available", I'm simply stating the obvious (to the reasonable racing fan), not using the comment as some sort of a bizarre agenda to attack OC's

[the_fat_man]

I find some of the comments real interesting.

This horse beats a field of allowance horses IMPRESSIVELY.

He was impressive, no doubt about it.

Of course, any other number of this year's 3 year olds could've beaten the same field by 10. Would SNS be one of them? Uh huh

Does this mean DC is not a nice horse? Of course not.

Does it mean he's in Bernardini's class? I doubt it. There's a reason why his connections chose this easy path.

Why is it that most seem to find his effort more impressive than Bernardini's effort in the Jim Dandy? Better field? Won easier? See what I mean?

After the Jim Dandy, there were so many who questioned Bernardini, commenting on the weak field. Guess the allowance field was alot better.

And who is Invasor, really? Yeah, he didn't get the best of trips in the Whitney YET he should've been beaten and only hung on cause a BIGTIME HANGER ran at him late (a hanger that was 2+ wider entering the stretch).

Not doubting that he was somewhat game in the race but the point is that he was exposed and should've lost, which means he's not a 'special' horse just a fairly good one (and those behind him in the Whitney are PLUGS --which doesn't say much for some of the older horses out there). Which means, if I'm correct about Bernardini, that Invasor is not in his class. Big secret. Which takes a bit away from DC's thumping of Invasor in Dubai.


Here's what I say to all this and this is directed towards the DUBAI (and any others in that area) connections:

Bring all your PLUGS out for the Gold Cup, let's settle this once and for all

Invasor
Jazil
Discreet Cat

and, of course, Bernardini

Oh yeah, I forgot, DC has a date in the Jerome :lol::lol:

ha ha ha

maybe they can get a NW of 4 (or is it 5?) to fill instead

[classhandicapper]

I don't think people should be so harsh about the plans mapped out for Discreet Cat for the simple reason that this was NOT the original plan. They lost a month of training when he got sick. Otherwise he was pointing for a much more ambitious schedule. They felt he wasn't even 100% fit for this race. So sure, they could have trained up to the Jerome and had him fitter, but they would still be in the same position with regards to the BC or any other major objective, namely way behind.

If anything, they can be criticized for stopping on him after the Dubai race instead of firing while the iron was hot. But they wanted him ready for the big fall stakes and things didn't work out. That's the risk you take when you stop on a sharp horse because you want him to peak later in the year.

[Tom]

I am amazed all these hall of fame trainers have so much time on a weekend to post here - don't they all have horses to get ready for this afternoon?
Don't they have all-you-can-eat buffets to scout out?

Barbaro - 5 weeks off - how stupid that trainer was! Uh huh.

[ryesteve]

I am amazed all these hall of fame trainers have so much time on a weekend to post here

I'll defer to those who know better.
Offering an opinion doesn't mean someone is presuming to know better.

If I wonder why Robinson Cano didn't bunt with first and second and the Yankees down by two, it doesn't mean I think I'm Connie Mack.

If I wonder why Phil Mickelson didn't play a long iron on the 18th instead of the driver, it doesn't mean I think I'm Ben Hogan.

If I wonder why Tom Coughlin calls a draw on 3rd and 8, it doesn't mean I think I'm Vince Lombardi.

If you expect people to restrict themselves to topics in which they are the foremost experts in their field, you must not have very many conversations.

[Tom]

Quote:
Originally Posted by ryesteve, quoted here for the 3rd time because Tom still doesn't get it
I'll defer to those who know better.

To ryesteve, who doens't get it yet.....I'm not talking about YOU.

[ryesteve]

Well, at least I figured out that the buffet comment wasn't about me...

[Whirlaway]

Uploaded the race to YouTube. See it here. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BZaO3UaKHw)

[RXB]

Thumbs up, PA. One down, 270 to go.

[PaceAdvantage]

Thumbs up, PA. One down, 270 to go.

It took me a minute to figure it out, but once I did, I actually laughed out loud...

[RXB]

Took you awhile to figure it out? :bang: Why, you must be stupid! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[Tom]

:lol: