Lane's End postmortem

[Valuist]

This may be blasphemy to all the pro-Polytrack folks but looking at the results of the Lane's End, this race shouldn't be downgraded to just a Grade 3; it should be completely ungraded. It really doesn't make sense to send a real top quality 3YO to Turfway....and by the looks of the past performances, the best 3YO on Saturday might've been High Cotton, who won the Rushaway. I suspect this will become a negative key race.

[the Bid]

There was nothing in there with much quality or consistancy. The top finishers in the prep for this (the Battaglia) all ran dreadfully.
The fact remains that the winner is now a G2 winner but it's mainly a matter of who didn't show up. Any race is only as good as it's field and I've seen some G3's that should be G1 (a few weeks ago at Gulfstream) and some G1's undeserving of any grade!

[rastajenk]

Every year I feel the same way as you, Mr. V, yet nearly every year the winner eventually goes on to do something good elsewhere. The list includes Flower Alley, Perfect Drift, Balto Star, Event of the Year, Concerto, and Serena's Song. Then going back before that, you have a nice run of Prairie Bayou, Lil E Tee, Hansel, Summer Squall, and Western Playboy. Some of those years a good field of proven winners was put together, but more often than not they were a bunch of allowance winners and minor stakes also-rans. It's too soon in the PolyGraph Era to write this one off; you may be right eventually, but not yet.

[Valuist]

Thats possible. But none of those horses you mentioned was almost 50-1. True, some of them were unknown but not Summer Squall, Serena's Song, Lil E Tee. Unless Churchill installs Polytrack I just don't see any serious Triple Crown threats wanting to waste a prep in a race where questions won't be answered.

[GlenninOhio]

Thats possible. But none of those horses you mentioned was almost 50-1. True, some of them were unknown but not Summer Squall, Serena's Song, Lil E Tee. Unless Churchill installs Polytrack I just don't see any serious Triple Crown threats wanting to waste a prep in a race where questions won't be answered.

The Lawyer Ron situation may be of interest here.

Perhaps there were other issues involved at the time, but he was a bust on poly as a 2-year old back in September.

But his first race on dirt off the poly was a barn burner at Keeneland in October and the rest is history.

My point is that an effort over the poly may serve as a conditioner that moves a horse forward. Only time will tell.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Damsire With Approval's record:

Winnings: 23 Starts: 13 - 5 - 1, $2,863,540

At 2:
Won Display S.
At 3:
Won Queen's Plate S., Breeders' S., Prince Of Wales S., Plate Trial S., Marine S.
2nd Tampa Bay Derby [G3], Queenston S.

At 4:
Won Bowling Green H. [G2], Connaught Cup S., Tidal H. [G2]
2nd Breeders' Cup Turf [G1], Arlington Million S. [G1], Sword Dancer H. [G1]
3rd Turf Classic H. [G1]

1989 Canadian Triple Crown winner.
1989 Canadian Horse of the Year and Champion 3yo colt.
____________________
With A City's sire won the Ky Cup Sprint and King's Bishop (1 13/16 miles)
With A City's uncle is Ghostzapper and also another BC Classic winner.
With A City so far won a 40k MD and another on turf, and won the biggest Polyturf racce yet.
With A City won the Lane's end by outlasting the favorite, having a rail trip, angling out, then splitting horses, all while wearing blinkers. His home track is Churchill Downs.
__________________
I'm not an expert, but I say compare him at this stage to RQ, Giacomo, FC, and Charismatic. I think he compares.
As far as a grade 1 on Polyturf and longshot taking everything, of the top I would say if you want to blame anyone blame the "contender"s' trainers.
Of course, I expect Beyer to claim out loud he cannot get the distance!!

[cj]

Beyer gave the Rushaway an 87, Lane's End a 91. I have the Lane's End 7 points higher.

[toetoe]

That's why I say: build training tracks of Astrodirt and leave the main tracks alone. That means spending money on real estate, no small amount in California, but the millions saved by not going for the track-makeover boondoggle would make a good start.

[Valuist]

Toetoe-

I agree. Keeneland has had Polytrack for their training track for some time. I am sorry that they are going to switch their main track to Polytrack. I guess that kills the conspiracy theories regarding souping up their main track so the 2YO in training sales horses get artificially fast times when they work. Those horses that used to go 10 4/5 for 1f may end up running 11 2/5. Doubt there will be anyone that can run faster than :11.

I see CJ and Beyer both gave the Lanes End winner a bigger fig than High Cotton. I haven't sat down and made numbers for either but I'm a little surprised, given the poor pps for the top runners in the Lanes End. I still can't believe Beyer only gave Lawyer Ron 1 pt better for the Rebel.

[toetoe]

Think about it. 99% of the running is done in training, and a horse runs 1 to 12 times per year in races.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Toetoe-

I agree. Keeneland has had Polytrack for their training track for some time. I am sorry that they are going to switch their main track to Polytrack. I guess that kills the conspiracy theories regarding souping up their main track so the 2YO in training sales horses get artificially fast times when they work. Those horses that used to go 10 4/5 for 1f may end up running 11 2/5. Doubt there will be anyone that can run faster than :11.

I see CJ and Beyer both gave the Lanes End winner a bigger fig than High Cotton. I haven't sat down and made numbers for either but I'm a little surprised, given the poor pps for the top runners in the Lanes End. I still can't believe Beyer only gave Lawyer Ron 1 pt better for the Rebel.

_________
OK Beyer and CJ- are you two fudging the numbers because WACy may face LR in the AR DDerby?LOL!!

[Valuist]

Owner said today With a City would not race again until the Kentucky Derby.

There's a real main track resume......his last non-Polytrack dirt Beyer is a 45 against 2YO 40000 clmrs at Calder.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Dirt? what's he done since then? Are you saying that is his current skill level, with the prior owner, trainer, and without blinkers?

[Valuist]

He improved when he moved to turf. He won a 2YO 40K claimer on the grass at Calder then a NW1X on the grass. The current connections then bought him and sent him to TP where he ran 8th in the Battaglia, despite being aided by a fast pace, then he won the race last weekend. All I'm saying is he hasn't proved anything on real dirt. I had to laugh when I see the owner's comment that he was the biggest overlay of all time......based on what? It certainly wasn't on his prior dirt form, or even off his Polytrack debut.

[cj]

I see CJ and Beyer both gave the Lanes End winner a bigger fig than High Cotton...

It would be a pretty big stretch to give High Cotton a higher number given the times of the races and how close together they were run, back to back. Unless you are Thorograph :D

[Murph]

_________
OK Beyer and CJ- are you two fudging the numbers because WACy may face LR in the AR DDerby?LOL!!

I have the Lanes End figure adjusted at a 118, 2 ticks above the G2 par. The Rushaway went one tick under the class par for a 110, about a 4 length difference.

Hard to say how With A City will return in the derby, he has formidable connections in his owner/trainer. I do look for Laity to move forward off of his pressing effort in this race.

Traditionaly The Lanes End has produced a top 3yo runner before the end of the season come November. This renewal could as well. It looks like a solid performance for the top finishers.

Murph

[Valuist]

LOL re: Thorograph.

I'm not sure we can really make an accurate figure for a 1 1/8 mile race at Turfway. They've only run a small number of races at that distance. If one or two of the higher regarded horses had showed up at all we could maybe make a case that the winner ran ok but the Zito, Pletcher and Euro ship in runners may be seen on milk cartons soon.

[DrugSalvastore]

What an eyesore of a race the Lane's End was.

I saw the Superfecta come back something like $363,000 ---which I assume means it was only hit by a few 10 cent Super players.

The Rushaway was just as ugly. The winner, who was practically eased last out, beat a 30/1 maiden, and a pair of 30+/1 shots finished up 3rd and 4th.

[michiken]

I had the 2 as best closer second race race back.

The pace collapsed and I simply missed it cause I spent too little time handicapping the race.

[GlenninOhio]

1. Some comments from With a City owner Ron Peltz in 3/28 Thoroughbred Times may be of value here.

"Peltz said With a City bled badly and had a lung infection when he ran so poorly in the John Battaglia. The colt received hyperbaric oxygen therapy for the pulmonary hemorrhage and added blinkers for the Lane's End.

"I had been watching him since I saw his half-brother, The Daddy, last summer at Saratoga and that horse proved he was a mile-and-a-quarter horse when he got the Super Derby (G2). With a City is every bit as well-bred to get the mile-and-a-quarter as The Daddy."

"I really went back and looked at all his races and saw why he was losing all the races he did." Peltz said. "He needs to get in the clear. He doesn't want to go inside, He got in the clear (in the Lane's End) and he showed what he can do."

2. Bris speed figures for the major Derby preps run in March (not because I think Bris speed is great but because they were available in a convenient table in Bloodstock Journal):

Fountain of Youth (G2) - First Samurai - 101
Santa Catalina (G2) - Brother Derek - 102
San Felipe (G2) - A.P. Warrior - 101
Rebel (G3) - Lawyer Ron - 98
Gotham (G3) - Like Now - 108
Tampa Bay Deby (G3) - Deputy Glitters - 106
Lane's End (G2) - With a City - 101

3. Maybe someone can help me out with the following. Last year's Derby preps seemed to be dominated by Pletcher/Zito "phenoms" and the like with all the right pedigrees and all the right connections who ran out of their minds speed figures and then flopped big time in the Derby. This year it seems like we have some refreshing new blood as far as trainers and connections are concerned but many of the horses are not putting up the bell ringer speed figs. Is that bad? If so, was last year's situation "good"? I ask this because there have been quite a few dismissive and derogatory posts regarding Lawyer Ron and With a City.

[Valuist]

I think the figure was wrong for Lawyer Ron. There were 3 races at 1 1/16 miles that day. For Lawyer Ron to be only given a 92 Beyer, the 7500 race had to be run WAY slower than par. The other race was a Mdn Sp race, and those races could be anything so it would be very difficult to project anything there.

But I don't need a speed figure to tell me that the Lane's End was weak. I think the first 5 runners from the Rebel (and Private Vow as well) would've probably won the Lane's End. And just about the entire San Felipe field would've likely won it also.

Is it just me or does anyone else still think of that race as the Jim Beam Stakes?

[cj]

There were also three mile races run on Rebel day. I have rarely found a reason to split the mile and mile and a sixteenth races at OP, and didn't find one that day either. That gives six races over nearly identical racetrack.

The Rebel came back slow because the pace was slow, in my opinion. Not only that, the two setting the pace were hopeless longshots, while Private Vow and Music School ran horribly. Those two were 3rd and 4th early. So, Lawyer Ron had the race virtually fall apart, he took over, and won as easy as could be. Really, really tough to get an accurate read on that race.

I would disagree about the top 5 from the Rebel being better, they didn't look like much going in either.

[Valuist]

Unless some of the Lane's End runners ship to Hot Springs for the Arky Derby we probably won't see these groups matchup. With a City will be 99-1 on the board at Churchill while I would guess that barring a collapse in the Arky Derby, Lawyer Ron will be below 10-1. Maybe Pinnacle will have a matchup play on the two winners; Lawyer Ron -400 With a City +320

[cj]

I wasn't talking so much about Lawyer Ron, but the others. I'd take the underdog in your match up everytime in a race like the Derby.

[Valuist]

I agree one always has to look toward the dog first in a matchup play, and in a race where nobody has run 10 furlongs, it wouldn't be wise to lay a big price.

Pinny is usually good about avoiding matchups w/a favorite and a big longshot. You rarely see a favorite at a steeper price than -200. Now a What a City/Steppenwolfer matchup would be more likely (I'd take Steppenwolfer).

[rastajenk]

Is it just me or does anyone else still think of that race as the Jim Beam Stakes?

I worked at Turfway for over two years earlier this decade, and my staff and I always referred to that day as "Beam Day." I think one year was an unsponsored Spiral Stakes (post-Gallery Furniture.com Stakes, of course ;) ) and the next was the first year for Lane's End. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if they still call it Beam Day.

[Valuist]

It was the Beam for so long; I started following racing around 1983 and I think the Beam sponsorship started right around then. The Galleryfurniture.com title was brutal.

Rasta-

Do you go to the harness track in Lebanon? My friend Cal grew up in Middletown and started out betting the harness runners at Lebanon.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Anyone care to discuss the Lane's End final time? Id o not think this thread mentioned it. I have now idea how good or bad it was compared to LE years past or to anyhting else. Thanks!

[rastajenk]

V-

I work at the harness track. Started punching tickets part-time a few months ago. I too grew up in M-town, and my first racing experiences were also here. Weird, huh? Later I graduated up to River Downs where I had enough success early on to get the bug for life.

[GlenninOhio]

Anyone care to discuss the Lane's End final time? Id o not think this thread mentioned it. I have now idea how good or bad it was compared to LE years past or to anyhting else. Thanks!

Final time of 1:51 for the 1-1/8 miles compares to "track record" of 1:493. Very, very few races have been run at this distance on the poly (Turfway track records are now for poly only).

Time for the mile of 1:38 compares with the track record of 1:371. Tons of races are carded at Turfway at a mile.

Pletcher's horse ran the mile in the Rushaway in 1:382 on his way to 1:45 for the 1-1/16 miles. Track record for 1-1/16 miles is 1:442. They card a lot more races at Turfway at 1-1/16 than 1-1/8, but still just a fraction of the flat mile races they card.

[GaryG]

Is it just me or does anyone else still think of that race as the Jim Beam Stakes?I do the same, although I still think of the track as Latonia and the one above Nashville as Dueling Grounds.

[Valuist]

We shouldn't have to wait too long to see some of these run back. 3rd place finisher Malameeze and 4th place More than Regal are expected to go in the Illinois Derby April 8.

[Valuist]

I think most thought this race came up bad. I would say horrible was an understatement. With a City, who won the race, ended up as the caboose at Oaklawn, a mere two places in front of his Lane's End "brother" Superfly. If races were graded on merit and not reputation, this would be ungraded this year.