Risk assessment, wagering on 2yo and FTS.

[twindouble]

Over the years I've avoided those races like a plague, ESP first time starters. The risk is just to high in my opinion. When a race like that is in the picks if I don't have key horses, here again I'll pass because the investment becomes to great going deep to cover them.

Anyone here have any success playing those races? I'm talking playing them on regular bases over the long term.

T.D.

[cj]

I'm like you. In today's environment, with a few hundred races run around the country that you can easily bet each day, I don't bother with these kinds.

[twindouble]

I'm like you. In today's environment, with a few hundred races run around the country that you can easily bet each day, I don't bother with these kinds.

Heck cj, the way I do things I'd be lucky to get through two tracks 18 races, a few hundred would be impossible. Blows my mind when you say "easy".

[shots]

Heck cj, the way I do things I'd be lucky to get through two tracks 18 races, a few hundred would be impossible. Blows my mind when you say "easy".
Same here, But I just use the form so it takes a lot longer.

[OTM Al]

I enjoy betting this kind of race, but do have a couple rules. Never take FTS under 3-1. Never play a FTS that has drawn the rail post. Never rely solely on a FTS for the win (unless of course they all are FTS). To me you can really catch a price in these sorts of races if you keep your eyes open.

[twindouble]

I enjoy betting this kind of race, but do have a couple rules. Never take FTS under 3-1. Never play a FTS that has drawn the rail post. Never rely solely on a FTS for the win (unless of course they all are FTS). To me you can really catch a price in these sorts of races if you keep your eyes open.

Keep your eyes open? What else you looking for other than the above?

[cj]

Heck cj, the way I do things I'd be lucky to get through two tracks 18 races, a few hundred would be impossible. Blows my mind when you say "easy".

By easily, I mean you have the ability to bet them, either online or at an OTB. In the old days, you bet at the track, or I guess with a bookie. If you had a 9 horse card, you wouldn't have much fun passing 4 maiden races with first timers in them.

[twindouble]

By easily, I mean you have the ability to bet them, either online or at an OTB. In the old days, you bet at the track, or I guess with a bookie. If you had a 9 horse card, you wouldn't have much fun passing 4 maiden races with first timers in them.

Yes your right, have to admit I'd take a flyer but nothing serious.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Laurel 6th 6 furlong maiden race today has a FTS on the rail- Parade Ground sire, jockey listed at 11% year but is 23% meet- trainer has 5 starts but is a national steeplechase champion trainer, horse trained on polytrack, no wortks showing, 15-1 odds. It took a little searching to find this info.
Which of these are positive signs?

[thoroughbred]

Over the years I've avoided those races like a plague, ESP first time starters. The risk is just to high in my opinion. When a race like that is in the picks if I don't have key horses, here again I'll pass because the investment becomes to great going deep to cover them.

Anyone here have any success playing those races? I'm talking playing them on regular bases over the long term.

T.D.

CompuTrak derives the present "Form" of a horse based both on recent races and recent workouts. The "Form" number for recent workouts has proven to be useful for handicapping races with FST's.

[dav4463]

There are some races where every maiden is a proven loser at the level and I can find no real positives about any of them. In this case, I will bet a FTS.

[OTM Al]

TD....some of the other things to keep eyes open for....

The obvious.
Trainer stats for first and second time starters. Some have them gunning from the get go and some do not.

Sire stats for FTSs. Indication of early racing maturity

Consistant workout patterns with no gap. Don't have to be fast. Love seeing good 5f works

The not so obvious.
Wet track Tomlinson rating. Its a theory I have about the babys. Wet tracks usually bias toward front runners, so the higher the wet track, the more likely the horse is speedy out of the gate. When baby horses play and go racing about the fields, it looks much like chase the leader. With a group of FTS, especially 2yos, none of them are really going to know wtf they are doing out there and many will go back to that instinctual play pattern. They will chase the leader around the track, but don't yet know they are supposed to try to pass him. Of course every once in a while you will see one that makes a really seasoned looking move down the stretch. Those you write down and watch for down the road.

Second time starters who started on the rail first out, got beat pretty well, but ran a very consistant race after first call, perhaps even gaining on the leader. Firsties hate that rail, so throw out what he did up to that first call and focus on how he ran the rest of the race

Second time starters who got drubbed in a stakes race first out. Trainer must have thought something of him to give that sort of plunge first out. Too many people just look at how badly he got beat, but not what he was racing in.

(Very rarely you can find these last 2 together. I did last summer and hammered a horse going off at 20+ to one. All people saw was that 21 BSF and the 20 some lengths he lost by. He won easy by open lengths.)

Time since first start for second time starters. I like to see 3-5 weeks between first and second start. Gives the horse some time to adjust and get some more quality training in to be a much more seasoned runner. Try to avoid those who get a quicker turnaround, especially those who lost in a tough race. Expect regression from them, not only in the second race, but for a couple down line.

The deceptive
Second time starter who broke poorly, but made a good move during the race. These almost always get overbet in my opinion. I generally try to avoid them unless they are somehow being overlooked. Some of these guys will never break well. Demand gate works to bet.

[classhandicapper]

I stay familiar with how successsful various trainers are with FTs (win percent and ROI). I also like to know whether their live ones usually get bet or not. I look at the workouts trying to determine if anyone is showing enough ability to be a threat to another horse I might be interested in. If there are no FTSs in the race that seem like a threat and they are all relatively dead on the board, I just play the same way I normally do. I do fine.

I rarely if ever bet against a FTS that gets backed down to favoritism - especially in the spring and summer 2YO and lightly raced 3YO races on dirt unless I have a very specific reason to think the horse is probably a dud. I will sometimes actually bet on them if I feel confident some of the money is coming from someplace other than the general public.

Anytime I have unanswerable questions, I pass.

[Valuist]

I try to avoid any race w/three or more first time starters or 3 or more layoff horses. IMO, I feel at a disadvantage relative to the people on the backside in those races.

Re: first time starters, be careful w/the DRF data. A week or so ago I had both BRIS and DRF pps for a race at Hawthorne. A trainer who I'm well aware of was listed in BRIS as about 14% and showing a slight profit w/first timers w/a sample size of over 100. The DRF had completely different data; only about 30 starts and just 1 win first out. I remember this trainer sending out a $46 winner first out in the summer of 2004 so obviously the DRF data would not go back that far. I don't like the fact they are only focusing on the past year or so; in many cases the sample size will be too small to make any judgements. After seeing that, I'm starting to compile my own data re: trainers with 1st, 2nd and 3rd time starters.

[twindouble]

OTM Al;

.
Now that's what I was looking for, something to get your teeth into. I'll say this, it would be another dimension in my handicapping to feel the risk would diminish to the point of profitability. All of what you said has been floating around in my brain just by virtue of being there, along with the comments by others. To be confronted with these types of races in the picks always put a damper on my confidence so I would go into protect the bankroll mode. Something for everyone to think about.


Thanks,

T.D.

[OTM Al]

I used to feel the same way about turf races until I devised a very simple system for looking at them. Now I really enjoy betting a higher end turf race...the system is not so good for low enders

[Koko]

I try to avoid any race w/three or more first time starters or 3 or more layoff horses. IMO, I feel at a disadvantage relative to the people on the backside in those races.



Naturally we all feel somewhat blind to trainer intent and horse ability if we're not insiders. All we have is physicality and tote board information to go on, and one thing people often overlook is, so does everyone else.

One need not have the insight that the insiders have to play these races, one simply has to feel that they can use physicality and tote tools better than the average bettor to a great enough extent to cover takeout etc.

If you feel you have no edge on your fellow bettors in those cases then naturally it's understandable that you don't play them.

[classhandicapper]

With Formulator you can go back 5 years, use other selection cirteria to get more specific, and then look at the actual details.



I try to avoid any race w/three or more first time starters or 3 or more layoff horses. IMO, I feel at a disadvantage relative to the people on the backside in those races.

Re: first time starters, be careful w/the DRF data. A week or so ago I had both BRIS and DRF pps for a race at Hawthorne. A trainer who I'm well aware of was listed in BRIS as about 14% and showing a slight profit w/first timers w/a sample size of over 100. The DRF had completely different data; only about 30 starts and just 1 win first out. I remember this trainer sending out a $46 winner first out in the summer of 2004 so obviously the DRF data would not go back that far. I don't like the fact they are only focusing on the past year or so; in many cases the sample size will be too small to make any judgements. After seeing that, I'm starting to compile my own data re: trainers with 1st, 2nd and 3rd time starters.

[RaceIsClosed]

Over the years I've avoided those races like a plague, ESP first time starters. The risk is just to high in my opinion. When a race like that is in the picks if I don't have key horses, here again I'll pass because the investment becomes to great going deep to cover them.

Anyone here have any success playing those races? I'm talking playing them on regular bases over the long term.

T.D.

The idea that other races have less "risk" is amusing. Are you saying you make a living off of them or even a profit? Races like this just offer less PP data to go on, but don't necessarily have any increased "risk."

For 2yos, you first have to separate the top-flight debut horses who run at Saratoga and KY/Fla etc., since many of them are excellent bets first time out.

Without giving away any specifics, it helps to know breeding, trainer patterns, sale prices (especially the 2yo sales where horses have to work out, meaning they usually have some gate training), and whether or not the horses who ran before are likely to run figures so high that the FTS horses can't compete, or so low that the FTS is a good bet.

Four-year-old firsters are a red flag for me because the horse is hardly "young" and may not be so inexperienced. I've seen those types show up mature and fully ready to run, at good prices against weak horses. I don't trust the Tomlinson ratings much, while I admire his attempt to quantify.

The best bet I ever made on a firster, however, had to be Dancinginmydreams, trained by McGaughey, a filly who ran around 1999 or so. The horse was by a multiple G1 winning dam, a multiple G1 winning sire, and had a pedigree that suggested it should win a G1 stakes. It was not running against much, and paid 9-2 after closing from the sky to win easily.

The old joke about two guys being chased by a bear applies. When one asks the other why he's trying to run away from the faster bear, the other says "I don't have to outrun him; I just have to outrun YOU."

[JackS]

A lot of good info here. I do like to play into these type of races. The DRF form facts is the only information that handicappers have to work with. When you consider that the "public" will also be trying to evaluate horses chances using limited info, you also realise that their choice and favorite will be pretty predictable. Bullitts, jocks and trainers are the main factors which must be used and are readily spotted by every one. Subtilties involving workout patterns, frequencies and trainer moves are often ignored. Overbet FTS shippers from one of the majors who have been s##t-canned to your mid or low level venue are easy to go against IMO. Million dollar horses or large fractions of this amount do not belong anywhere except NY, Fla, and So- Cal. Find the positives and look for the negatives and make your own assessment of the off-time favorite. The chance for a reasonable or even a super score often exists with this type of race and should not be passed.

[twindouble]

The idea that other races have less "risk" is amusing. Are you saying you make a living off of them or even a profit? Races like this just offer less PP data to go on, but don't necessarily have any increased "risk." Quote; RaceIsclosed.

I find what you said even more amusing. 2yo's and first time starters are just babies, who the heck knows from race to race how much they will improve or just be green for a race or two or three? Older horses give you a lot more to go on.


T.D.

[GaryG]

The idea that other races have less "risk" is amusing. Are you saying you make a living off of them or even a profit? Races like this just offer less PP data to go on, but don't necessarily have any increased "risk." Quote; RaceIsclosed.

I find what you said even more amusing. 2yo's and first time starters are just babies, who the heck knows from race to race how much they will improve or just be green for a race or two or three? Older horses give you a lot more to go on.


T.D.All I can say is that the only time I would play a FTS is if I have some kind of inside info concerning trainer intent and the quality of his works. Far too many of the bluebloods from top barns are not asked to win 1st out, using the race for experience. There are too many other opportunities.

[how cliche]

I can't speak for other circuits. However, here in CA there are *breeder/owners* whose first timers win at high percentages under the tutelage of multiple trainers both North and South. Two examples are Tommy Town Thoroughbreds and Harris Farms.

[JackS]

Now and then you may note a FTS'er racing against maidens with multiple starts. The noted weakness of this one race leads you to expect the only reasonable bet here IS the first time starter.
No such thing as a "sure-bet" but this would probably be my play at odds.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Can you tell me anything about betting FTS' at the Northern Ca fairs? Thanks!

[bettheoverlay]

My favorite bet is the Pick 4 and you must come to terms with these puzzling FTSers most days. I never really know what to do with them, especially projecting possiible odds. Ironically, the last two big P3 hits I've had involved throwing in a Steve Asmussen firster at the last minute, because I've seen him get big price winners before with firsters, despite a high win %.

I've gone down the tubes using breeding #s, they're usually overbet. I stick with trainers and fast works, although I always give priority to horses who have already started.

[RaceIsClosed]

The idea that other races have less "risk" is amusing. Are you saying you make a living off of them or even a profit? Races like this just offer less PP data to go on, but don't necessarily have any increased "risk." Quote; RaceIsclosed.

I find what you said even more amusing. 2yo's and first time starters are just babies, who the heck knows from race to race how much they will improve or just be green for a race or two or three? Older horses give you a lot more to go on.


T.D.

Are the TRAINERS making their debut? The SIRES?

[twindouble]

Are the TRAINERS making their debut? The SIRES?

Good point but there's more than one trainer in the race. With little or no PP's even intent goes further down the list of factors equal to wights. Sure as said you can jump on the one that has the best % with these babies. Throw in breeding and to me it's still a very high risk play. I use this example when it comes to breeding. My next door neighbor was a weight lifting champion but his son was frail and played the violin. So there is some truth to what the mother has to offer. Another thing, from what I gather here the majority agree what we are producing isn't all that great. :confused: That just adds to my lack fo confidence, super trainer or not. So every play boils down to an angle or two supported by nothing else.

I'll tell you what, if I could have found someone with the talent to pick winners under those conditions that truly cut the risk to an exceptable level, I would have saved a lot of money investing in the pick 6 or 4 and my bottom line would have been something to really brag about. Not that I would. :cool:

T.D.

[Hank]

All I can say is that when I dumped all maidens with one exception [msw routes on turf] and ALL nw2 from my life , man did I get smarter;) sure scores can been unearthed in these,but the furstration of getting beat for nice scores by formless firsters and seconders pissed me off to no end.Try this one day just for the hell of it, go through a weekday card and discard all the maidens and nw2s and see whats left,about 2 freaking plays,IF your lucky. Thats why like CJ said you must spread out!!!

[RaceIsClosed]

Good point but there's more than one trainer in the race. With little or no PP's even intent goes further down the list of factors equal to wights. Sure as said you can jump on the one that has the best % with these babies. Throw in breeding and to me it's still a very high risk play. I use this example when it comes to breeding. My next door neighbor was a weight lifting champion but his son was frail and played the violin. So there is some truth to what the mother has to offer. Another thing, from what I gather here the majority agree what we are producing isn't all that great. :confused: That just adds to my lack fo confidence, super trainer or not. So every play boils down to an angle or two supported by nothing else.

I'll tell you what, if I could have found someone with the talent to pick winners under those conditions that truly cut the risk to an exceptable level, I would have saved a lot of money investing in the pick 6 or 4 and my bottom line would have been something to really brag about. Not that I would. :cool:

T.D.

It is not impossible to handicap these races if one accepts the volatility and stays focused on trying to outperform the public, who is working on the same playing field.