Friday's Picks @ Saratoga...(Long post)

[Bubbles]

Hey...

I went at these past performances a bit differently than I usually do. For starters, I used an odds line for the first time. Secondly, I downloaded Formulator 3.0, which lets you customize the PPs and shows you Beyer charts. This is VERY appealing, and I hope it works.
I've only handicapped five of the nine races, and as soon as I finish, I'll let ya know. Here goes...

First-This is a seven furlong claimer. Normally, this race would finish the Saratoga card (Very live longshots, favorites doing very little, etc.), but it's the first today. Despite the 15-1 morning-line odds, I find it very hard to believe that anyone can beat MOUNTAIN RANGE. He loves the Spa (6-3-0-1 record @ Saratoga) and has great bloodlines on his sire's side (Traces back to Storm Cat). SHELBY LANE completes the exacta. He ran third in his last seven furlong try, gets Jorge Chavez, and should run well. I have the likely favorite MASTER O FOXHOUNDS running third. He bounced last out after two good races. He gets Javier Castellano, who rode him to victory three back, and shouldn't repeat his last effort.

Second-This is a 1 1/8 maiden race on the turf. BETTY B looked very good last out while running third at a mile. She gets Bailey today and should win if she runs her race. BLOSSUM ran a late-running third at a mile and a sixteenth down at Delaware. She should benefit from the added distance. Gotta love the name on this next horse. BUBBLES CACHET, while running poorly in her last, DID turn out a huge work at Laurel on the 18th. She's also a closer, and could get up for a share.

Third-The first two year old race of the card (5 1/2 furlongs) comes down to two horses. TOMORROWS WAR CRY ran a solid third in his last race, but first time starter CHARGED UP has an incredible pedigree (Traces back to both Gone West and Seattle Slew.). It's a toss-up between those two, and I can't make the call. TONY CURTIS is a firster with decent works on the Saratoga Training Track. He has an upset chance here.

Fourth-This 1 1/8 allowance on the dirt could easily be a stakes race. QUEST beat a very good field last out at Belmont. Had a very good work on the 20th and is my pick to win. BASEBALL CHAMPION bounced badly last out at Delaware, but ran a very good second at Belmont before that. He gets Velasquez and should put up a fight. The best Beyers belong to DEFERRED COMP, who put up a whopping 113 three starts back. While he did bounce badly last out, he gets Pat Day who rode him to that 113, and should put up another good rating here.

Fifth-Anyone who attended Belmont during their last meet will want to kill me for what I'm about to say. TITLE NINE took everyone's money there in her last three starts, but she should be able to beat these easily in this 1 1/8 maiden race on the grass. BELLES LETTRES ran a good second at a mile last out at 16-1. She can close and may catch the top one here. SOUNDS FISHY also can close and was third last out. She's another contender who may spoil the top one's bid to break her maiden.

Any questions?

[Bubbles]

Hey...

More picks for ya. Here goes...

6th-This one-mile turf allowance holds my Best Bet. FOREVERNESS broke his maiden easily last out. He adds Lasix, which may or may not be a good thing, but he should still beat these while under Jerry Bailey. Forget BATTIER's last race, when the turf was wet. He romped two starts back rather easily, and should put up a good showing. MALAGASH has been on the sidelines since October. He should be rested and ready for this field.

7th-There's a diamond in the rough in this 1 1/8 race, and her name is TSUYU. Not only is the turf to dirt angle interesting, but her works are great. She should be prepared. The likely favorite here is SAINTLY ACTION. This horse ran a good second last out, and the Mott-Bailey angle is always interesting. SOUL SISTER romped at Churchill Downs last out. She's turned in great works and could be a good play in exotics.

8th-The Bernard Baruch is a Grade 2, $150,000 stakes race at a mile and an eighth on the grass. It's hard to ignore VOLPONI here, but the oddsmakers have assigned him not only a generous weight break, but 8-1 morning-line odds. In case you don't remember, he won the Poker Handicap in a mind-boggling 1:32 1/5. He gets no respect, and I'm taking advantage of it. DEL MAR SHOW follows the Bailey-Mott angle and won impressively last out. He's by Theatrical (Ire) and should make this race interesting. The likely favorite is FORBIDDEN APPLE. He's a world-class horse, but he needs the lead, as he showed in the Manhattan. The pressers here are fierce, and he'll have a hard time holding them off.

9th-As is the norm at the Spa, an incredibly bizarre race rounds out the card. It's a 1 1/8 on the main track for claimers. Longshot City, baby! PAINTED PISTOL bounced badly in his last start. He should improve with the added distance. TALK'S CHEAP is the likely favorite. He won his last start and is the one to catch. DEVIL'S SHADOW has won three of his last four. The one he lost was to Milky Bar, who won on opening day. He's dangerous when he gets on the lead.

Any questions?