Dubai World Cup Day 25th March

[RobinFromIreland]

Seems a very weak challenge by the US this year.

Personally, the bias against horses from smaller countries against hyped Godolphin and Euro trained horses have allowed me to get some really great prices:

Shaheen: Heart Alone (Brazil) murdered most of the field on C&D in January by over 4 lenghts and giving the field 6lbs. The US horses, Proud Tower Too and Gaff (whom I remember as decidedly average when in Ireland) can't be good enough to beat him and Tropical Star and Conroy being exposed, I thought this was a great bet at 3/1.

UAE Derby: Discreet Cat walked in on his prep against rubbish horses over 1m and in a good time, this is further and I don't think he's ready yet to win this, and the comments from Godolphin about him have been very guarded compared to previous contenders for this race.

But the main problem is that he's up against Simpatico Bribon, who took my breath away when he won his prep for this. I consider this horse to be currently one of the best in the world for his age, he ran the last race in a great time eased up but most of all was still galloping so strongly at the end (C&D). He's already a 2yo champ, superbly victorious against older G1 handicappers in Chile and the trainers has always said he's a least 3L better than stablemate Gold For Sand (who won UAE 2000 Gns). I priced him at 4/6 conservatively and he was available at 7/4. Fill your boots, as they say.

Sheema: But there's another. How anyone could explain to me that Ouija Board is 2/1 when Heart's Cry, who flew past her in Japan Cup and was ahead by 2L and going further away at the line, is 4/1. Add to this that Heart's Cry beats Japan TC winner Deep Impact in Arima Kinen at the end of 2005.

Relaxed Gesture did well in Canada but on Yielding which he's not going to get anywhere near.

I took a lot at 4/1 and 7/2 for Japan to take this home.

[Valuist]

My guess on the price on Ouija Board is that she's the "hype" horse. She's had a win and a second in the Breeders Cup Filly Turf so North American bettors are very familiar w/her while we don't know Japanese form at all.

My question for you is just what did Heart Alone beat in Janurary? I see Tropical Star was in there but he was making his first start since late March of 2005. He was second in this race last year. He's since won twice. I'm not as high on Gaff as some are; I like Proud Tower Too and Captain Squire best of the Americans.

Based on the U.S. entrants in the World Cup, there doesn't seem to be much early speed. Looks like a good spot for somebody (Magna Graduate?) to go wire to wire. I see the bookmakers in the UK have Electrocutionsist at even money. That's a real low price for a horse who's won one race on dirt, and over questionable opposition at that.

[RobinFromIreland]

Its true Ouija Board's a huge hype horse and because she's a filly and the deal with here connections (Lord Derby's only horse and all that) has meant that she has gotten a ridiculous amount of press for a filly that in reality has won only three G1s, all against her own sex. Alexander Goldrun has had an incredible career but nowhere near the hype.

Anyway, its true about Heart Alone - he is not a certainty, however that was a really good performance, and I rate Tropical Star the main danger, and may even throw him in an exacta.

For the other races, in the Mile again the bias is towards the Euros on prices with David Junior favourite (take away his Champion Stakes victory and he'd be 25/1) with Bullish Luck and Fields Of Omagh way overpriced.

In the Godolphin Mile, Jack Sullivan looks the one.

Looking into Discreet Cat, he ran that prep in a super fast time, almost ridiculously fast, but the horse he beat was Listed class at best. I still have faith in Simpatico.

In the World Cup itself, the Japanese Derby (dirt) and Japan Cup Dirt winner Heiki something (9/2) looks the business, especially as Electrocutionist is only 5/4.

[shanta]

Seems a very weak challenge by the US this year.

Personally, the bias against horses from smaller countries against hyped Godolphin and Euro trained horses have allowed me to get some really great prices:

Shaheen: Heart Alone (Brazil) murdered most of the field on C&D in January by over 4 lenghts and giving the field 6lbs. The US horses, Proud Tower Too and Gaff (whom I remember as decidedly average when in Ireland) can't be good enough to beat him and Tropical Star and Conroy being exposed, I thought this was a great bet at 3/1.

UAE Derby: Discreet Cat walked in on his prep against rubbish horses over 1m and in a good time, this is further and I don't think he's ready yet to win this, and the comments from Godolphin about him have been very guarded compared to previous contenders for this race.

But the main problem is that he's up against Simpatico Bribon, who took my breath away when he won his prep for this. I consider this horse to be currently one of the best in the world for his age, he ran the last race in a great time eased up but most of all was still galloping so strongly at the end (C&D). He's already a 2yo champ, superbly victorious against older G1 handicappers in Chile and the trainers has always said he's a least 3L better than stablemate Gold For Sand (who won UAE 2000 Gns). I priced him at 4/6 conservatively and he was available at 7/4. Fill your boots, as they say.

Sheema: But there's another. How anyone could explain to me that Ouija Board is 2/1 when Heart's Cry, who flew past her in Japan Cup and was ahead by 2L and going further away at the line, is 4/1. Add to this that Heart's Cry beats Japan TC winner Deep Impact in Arima Kinen at the end of 2005.

Relaxed Gesture did well in Canada but on Yielding which he's not going to get anywhere near.

I took a lot at 4/1 and 7/2 for Japan to take this home.

Robin,
Thanx for taking the time to share your thoughts. I am always clueless in these darn races. Now I have a little feedback and will watch the races and enjoy the morning.

Salute!
Richie :)

[Valuist]

I'm looking at Blatant in the 2nd race. He was only beaten a length by Jack Sullivan and now they cut back to a mile, which will probably suit him. He ran a solid 3rd at 100-1 last September against Starcraft, Dubawi and Rakti, a pretty strong group.

Robin--thanks for the info on the Derby. We have P3 wagering here and I think Simpatico will be better value in that pool.

[Tee]

Before they spring the gate I like the looks of,

#4 Invasor & # 9 Flamme de Passion

[Tee]

Jet West - doesn't need the lead, does have enuff spd to sit just off the pace setters & hopefully have the finishing kick.

[Tee]

Collier Hill through in a clunker last out, had every right to as it was his first start in nearly six months. With that race under his belt he should be ready to go today.

Heart's Cry comes with his best stuff I don't know if he finishes worse than 2nd. Nose defeated in the Japan Cup that did include Ouija Board. Big question is does he come back with that great form of last year?

[RobinFromIreland]

Collier Hill through in a clunker last out, had every right to as it was his first start in nearly six months. With that race under his belt he should be ready to go today.

Heart's Cry comes with his best stuff I don't know if he finishes worse than 2nd. Nose defeated in the Japan Cup that did include Ouija Board. Big question is does he come back with that great form of last year?

Thats quite an exacta you got there! Heart's Cry wins very easily over Collier Hill with Ouija Board well back in 4th - terrific ride by Lemaire in front. He saved my bacon and I end up with a $150 profit.

I was just plain flat wrong on Simpatico (6th) and that UAE 2000 Gns form took a hammering as Discreet Cat won eased down from stablemate. After looking such a good race earlier, Discreet Cat was well above these, but Dettori was saying, after being asked about KY Derby, that the American horses well much better than that opposition and he wouldn't be that certain about Discreet Cat going yet. Still he won very easily.

Heart Alone raced tailed off the entire Sprint as the US horses, led by Proud Tower Two, finished 1-2-3-4, demonstrating that no-one comes near to the Americans in sprinting. I was delighted to hear minutes before the race that Heart Alone had not being training well and the stable hadn't had a winner for almost 50 days - and Blatent's run earlier was a good indication of the malaise in the stable's health.

The Mile was won by the Japanese horse, giving a great boost to KH in the World Cup.

[Tee]

Thanx Robin!!

Continuing on,

Not looking much further than Linngari - a little scan towards Touch of Land as well.

Wouldn't be at all surprised to see an improved effort out of Hat Trick.

[Tee]

My luck has turned :lol: Just about had the la-xacta in the last race. :)

I'll throw out two horses in the big race & take a break for awhile this morning.

Chiquitin & Magna Graduate - me thinks they will be prominent throughout & 1 or both will still be around at the finish.