betting Todd Pletcher

[Two Bucks To Win]

I think that someone could make money just betting on Todd Pletcher in certain situations. If you avoid the obvious losers and heavy chalk there is still value in many of his runners.

[SAL]

Betting Pletcher with the top prime power rating at Gulfstream would have netted you 44% winners and a +23% roi

[Tom]

Sal,

BRIS Prime Power rating?

Thanks

[SAL]

It's the TSN prime power rating, which is exactly the same as the BRIS prime power rating I believe.

[andicap]

Yes, but too bad you didn't know that BEFORE the GP meet began.

Tough to get value on a guy that the bettors are pretty much onto. Still get an occasional longshot and I guess if you discovered how that happens you could make money off him. If I was doing trainer capping tho I'd follow the mid-range conditioners who win at good odds but fly under the radar.

[Ron]

Can you bet on Pletcher at Churchill this year? ;)

[RaceIsClosed]

Yes, but too bad you didn't know that BEFORE the GP meet began.

Tough to get value on a guy that the bettors are pretty much onto. Still get an occasional longshot and I guess if you discovered how that happens you could make money off him. If I was doing trainer capping tho I'd follow the mid-range conditioners who win at good odds but fly under the radar.'

You mean like -- <should I spill?>

Top trainers with horses who have top power ratings are generally good.

[Valuist]

"Avoid the obvious losers" was mentioned earlier in the thread.

How many obvious losers does he send out? One of the reasons he's so good is he knows where to place his horses.

[Two Bucks To Win]

"Avoid the obvious losers" was mentioned earlier in the thread.

How many obvious losers does he send out? One of the reasons he's so good is he knows where to place his horses.

Study how he operates. If you merely flat-bet every one of his starters during 2005-2006 you would lose about 7 or 8 cents on the dollar, so you would already be beating the takeout and with a rebate be very close to break even. As far as narrowing down his better plays, some things one has to do for themselves; I can't do all the work for you. :cool:

[Valuist]

I've watched him operate since he started in the mid 90s. And I did catch Black Snake last Sunday, who might've slipped thru the cracks if there was fine tuning involved.

[Two Bucks To Win]

I made one of my biggest bets of this year on Black Snake. Colonial Downs turf horses are notoriously underrated.

[Turfday]

According to my database, using the last three years (last 1,095 calendar days from yesterday) and based on a rolling average (which gives added weight to what's happened more recently than what happened three years ago):

There are two spots to catch Pletcher strictly considering value......IF that's possible.

1) 120 + day layoff horses...222 layoff horses...65 winners...29%...average price win mutuel $7.00

2) first-time turf...205 first-time turfers...45 winners...22%...average price win mutuel $10.00.

I personally am not interested in short-term, small sample sizes except when they support the longer term, bigger sample size stat...which makes the longer term stat stronger by my way of thinking.

Going back prior to the last three years, the "best value" on Pletcher holds up first-time turf. The number of first-time turf starters goes up to 461 with 89 winners (19%) with an average price win mutuel of $11. Wins 3% less frequently, win mutuel jumps up a buck.

That's a $57 profit with no handicapping whatsoever dating back to when he first saddled horses under his own name.

[Marc At DRF]

Valuist asks "how many obvious losers does he send out?"

I looked this up via Formulator. Took about 5 seconds.

Pletcher, last 5 years, 3 yr olds, going from sprint to route, in graded stakes:

16 starts, 1 win. 0.24 ROI

And the one winner was odds-on (Limehouse in the Tampa Derby).

[classhandicapper]

I love Formulator for things like that. You can then look at the details of each of the horses PPs :ThmbUp:

[Valuist]

Turfday-

Thanks for the info. Unfortunately, Harbor Master couldn't hold on in his turf debut at a nice price :mad: