class failure

[BIG HIT]

Hi guy's a horse at del race#1 this horse had went through all his condition's at 5000clm nw 2l to 4l then moved to alw 15000n1x where he beat 1/2 field then drop to clm 5000 opn where he beat 1/2 field agian and was claimed. Then put in a 9/10 clm opn.which he won pd $93.80 would have had him if he did not move back up after failing to win at 5000.How do you guy's look at move's like this.?He certainly fig as a alw horse if you throw out last race my opinion. This was del 7/21 frist race.

[ranchwest]

Haven't looked at the horse or race, but sounds like it could have something to do with the claim. Maybe the new trainer got more out of the horse. How long since the claim and how many works showing? Trainer from and trainer to?

[JustMissed]

Do you know of any source or article on the net that could help a newbie figure out class/going up or down? I generally stay confused especially if there are allowance races involved. Just last night the track handicapper said a horse was moving down in class but that most people would not notice. He never did explain what he meant and when I looked at the pp's it looked like he had been running the same type 4M claiming racing. And when they ship in from CD or Pim or wherever-it really drives me crazy.

I guess I'll catch on eventually but would like to find out an easier way to catch on.

Thanks,

JustMissed
:)

[BIG HIT]

Hi guy's the horse last race was 26 day's no work's just had problem with his move up so high and just missed wanted to know about class try tufpedia.com may answer a lot of questin on what kind of horse to bet in different class situation

[ranchwest]

My guess is that the trainer figured out something that was wrong with the horse. The horse may also have been in training at a private training facility.

While I confess to depending on the PP's heavily, some things aren't in there and I don't think you're going to find an explanation for this case. This one has trainer move written all over it.

[Doug]

BIG HIT ASKED

Hi guy's a horse at del race#1 this horse had went through all his condition's at 5000clm nw 2l to 4l then moved to alw 15000n1x where he beat 1/2 field then drop to clm 5000 opn where he beat 1/2 field agian and was claimed. Then put in a 9/10 clm opn.which he won pd $93.80 would have had him if he did not move back up after failing to win at 5000.How do you guy's look at move's like this.?He certainly fig as a alw horse if you throw out last race my opinion. This was del 7/21 frist race

If the alw opt race was for nw1 (which it probably was) then you have a multiple winner most likely running against winners of just one race (more than likely a maiden race). So this horse is a proven winner of multile races other than maiden (especially the nw4 5000. This type of horse can always be dangerous. At those mutuals gotta bet something on that horse. IMO

Personally I would prefer this type of horse over winners of just one race unless the was a class dropper. When I say class dropper I mean going from nw2 or above with no giveaway. In other words some type of class drop where the owner will not be losing money on the horse.

Doug

[BIG HIT]

Hi doug think you miss under stood he went from alw n1x to 5000 open claiming beat 1/2 field in both those race and was claimed for 5000 in last race.Then moved up to 10,000 claimer andwon which was also open condition the alw purse 15+ today purse was 8000.But the 5000 purse had to be less than both those.That is why missed him to me with out the last race he would have figured today thank's for your reply and his last race was 26 day's ago no work's

[Big Bill]

JustMissed

Class movements up or down, or no change, have been the subject of many handicapping books and the viewpoints range from "intricate" to "general".

For an example of what I call "intricate" I refer you to Chapter 10 of Davidowitz's Betting Thoroughbreds.

The author explains how there are subdivisions of class within a DRF stated class, e.g., a 2500 claiming race can have as many as seven different class levels withing it (Page 96).

For an example of what I call "general" I refer you to the charts on pages 61 and 66 of James Quinn's Recreational Handicapping.

Here the author identifies class levels for major and minor tracks and advises using these to determine class changes up or down. Quinn is more lenient ("general") in identifying class changes, e.g., a 4000 claimer and a 5000 claimer are races within the same class level.

These class hierarchy charts also make it easy to compare claiming and non-claiming class levels. I've found these charts very helpful in determining class changes and I really wish Quinn would update them since they reflect 1990 values.

If you have access to a relatively large library, these books may be available there.

Big Bill

[Doug]

BIG HIT,

Hi doug think you miss under stood he went from alw n1x to 5000 open claiming beat 1/2 field in both those race and was claimed for 5000 in last race.Then moved up to 10,000 claimer andwon which was also open condition the alw purse 15+ today purse was 8000.But the 5000 purse had to be less than both those.That is why missed him to me with out the last race he would have figured today thank's for your reply and his last race was 26 day's ago no work's



lets see if I have this right. After bouncing around in the nw1,2,3,4 at 5000 claimers he then ran in an alw nw1 and then a 5000 open clm in which he beat half the field each time. then goes to a 10,000 open claim and wins. Today that horse is entered in a nw1 opt claim (claiming price I don't know).

If that is the case the horse probably just beat comparable horses in that 10,000 open event that he is facing today and like I mentioned he is a multiple winner facing mostly (if not all) winners of just the maiden race.

Purse values can be very decieving so IMO is is best to use the race conditions in which the horse ran. For example a horse that ran in a 5000 nw4 lifetime and is now running in a 6500 non-winners of 2 lifetime most likely has an edge. At some tracks certain drops in level are more dramatic than they appear.

Maybe go more into this later as I think these are some of the best spot plays in racing.

Doug BTW let me know if I caught on to your question.

[BIG HIT]

Hi doug you are right about the alw nw1x but his last race at 5000 was multiple winner's as the 10,000 race was multiple winner's and yes understand purse value can be miss leading.But if not forlast race would been over 50% drop in purse which to me say he beat 1/2 field of horse that some have potential and then went in claiming trench's of sore sick and tired.Really don't expect a solid answer just other people view's thank's agian all for reply's

[ceejay]

Originally posted by JustMissed
Do you know of any source or article on the net that could help a newbie figure out class/going up or down? I generally stay confused especially if there are allowance races involved. Just last night the track handicapper said a horse was moving down in class but that most people would not notice. He never did explain what he meant and when I looked at the pp's it looked like he had been running the same type 4M claiming racing. And when they ship in from CD or Pim or wherever-it really drives me crazy.

I guess I'll catch on eventually but would like to find out an easier way to catch on.

Thanks,

JustMissed
:)


I'd reccomend Jim Quinn's The Handicapper's Condition Book DRF Press, 2000. It is very boring but informative if you want to learn about class it has lots of info.

[Doug]

Just Missed,

Originally posted by JustMissed
Do you know of any source or article on the net that could help a newbie figure out class/going up or down? I generally stay confused especially if there are allowance races involved. Just last night the track handicapper said a horse was moving down in class but that most people would not notice. He never did explain what he meant and when I looked at the pp's it looked like he had been running the same type 4M claiming racing. And when they ship in from CD or Pim or wherever-it really drives me crazy.

I guess I'll catch on eventually but would like to find out an easier way to catch on.

Thanks,

JustMissed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Davidowich book is ok, I really like the chapter on class in "kinky Handicapping". Quinn had a decent book called "Class of the field", which I like way better than the "handicappers ondition " book. Also a real old book called "Secrets of a Successful Handicapper ( I think that is the name) the author is named Chuck Badone.

Doug

[ranchwest]

Sorry, I misunderstood, didn't know that there was an optional race after the 9/10k claimer. I thought the question was about the 9/10k claiming race in which he won at high odds.

[BIG HIT]

Hi r/w you had it right! just thought may have just put to much him not wining last race before move up.The horse had a lot of positive's and i two rely mostly on pp.Thank's fore your reply's

[Tom]

http://www.turfpedia.com/

Turpedia is Jim Quinn's site and there is a lot of free reading there on all kinds of racing topics.

When you look at class, keep in mind a couple of things-
1. Races are written for certain types of horses. Alw NW1X are not written for claiming horses - they are written for young, developing horses that may not look as sharp as the claiming horse entered. If there are no promising developing horses,then the claimers can win, but don't be fooled by suspect form on young horses.
Another thing you will see a lot if a horse going up in claiming price but down in conditions. A $4,0000 open claimer if better than a $6,000 nw3lt races most fo the time. The question to ask is would the horses that ran in the last race be allowed in today's race under the conditions of eligibility.

What day was thi sDel race you are looking at? I would like to look at it.

[BIG HIT]

Hi tom the race was del 7/21 race#1 thank's for interest.Would be interested in your thought's on race and anyone else as did think he was a ballpark contender.Understand about cond and agree well take a look see what you think.?

[Tom]

Based on his rcent Beyres, I would not make the horse any kind of a contender. He would be thrown out in my first pass.
I would be wrong, but I can live with that.
The thing he has going for him is that the trainer is 8-3-2 at the meet and for 1st time after a claim, he has hit with a longshot before (ROI 8.97).
Also, this was a bad field of 10K pretenders, but I would not bet this horse. His wins at Penn do not impress me in the least.
But likeI say, I would be wrong.

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by BIG HIT
Hi r/w you had it right! just thought may have just put to much him not wining last race before move up.The horse had a lot of positive's and i two rely mostly on pp.Thank's fore your reply's

My suggestion is to look at the regular stats of the race, then look at the stuff that could be related to the trainer, such as claims.

[JustMissed]

Thanks to all for the great advice and referencec regarding class. I checked out the turfpedia.com site. There was some great info on class there. I would highly recommend that site to any newbie.

Thanks again for all your help,


Just Missed
:)

[Doug]

I just found the eaiest way possible to pick that particular horse.

The ITS SUPER CONSENUS in the handicappers daily had this horse picked on top in the form column.

Doug

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by Doug
I just found the eaiest way possible to pick that particular horse.

The ITS SUPER CONSENUS in the handicappers daily had this horse picked on top in the form column.

Doug

Are you now going to wager on every horse so noted?

[Doug]

Ranchwest,

You know if I happen to see one that is paying monster mutuals I most likely will. Unless you might be able to share with me a more accurate way to pick a $93 horse.

Doug

[ranchwest]

You never know how that guy picked the horse or how long it will be before he hits another one. I just think you're more likely to do well with your own picks. In this case, trainer handicapping might get it.

[Doug]

Ranchwest,

Supposedly a computer program of some type. Had to have some reason to select this horse. The consensus has four different columns, one for speed, pace class, form.

Just like the guys in the drf they have to have some method of selecting horses.

There are plenty of selections for sale out there and I don't have a clue how they pick the seections. I suppose they do ok.

If you were to call me and tell me your picks, you would probably say something like " the horse figures on form and class " so there is a good chance he might win at a good price. I doubt if you would go into the number crunching you did to arrive at that decision.

Doug

[ranchwest]

If I tell you bet the leading money winner breaking from the inside post if it is bred in KY, will you do it? Do you know what the win percentage is? Do you know the historical ROI?

What if I tell you I saw a horse win at FG under this premise? Hmmm, sounds better. What if I tell you it paid over $200 to win? Now, sounds really good, huh? What if I told you that it happened 15 or 20 years ago? Yikes! What if I tell you I don't know whether it has worked since? Yikes!

But if I had a computer program that was looking for that situation, it would pick that horse. I just don't know if it would ever pick another one. I don't know if that was an anomoly, luck, if you will. Maybe, if you believe in luck, the luck is all used up. If you believe in statistics, maybe it was a 1 in a million and now each case is still 1 in a million but we already know it has happened once and we're leary of it happening again.

Just a few thoughts to ponder.

[Doug]

Ranchwest,

I am assuming that you have compared whatever method you use to the ITS Super Consensus and have found your method superior to that product. Otherwise how would you know that this is the only top selection that has ever won from that program.

Or that you know the ITS product is no good and will never produce a profit no matter how it is played.

I am not affiliated with ITS and I believe, if my memory hasn't failed me that you do market a product. Why go to the extreme of knocking something if you have never tried that product? I again assume you have not tried the product.

While a certain product may work well for one person another product may work well for a different person.

If you were at the track with me and I hit that horse you would most likely tell me how lucky I was or something of that nature. To a certain degree you can make yourself lucky.

I have done some studies of drf expert selections and they certainly don't fare too bad. Matter of fact most of these guys hit around 25% and that is handicapping without scrathes, weather conditions, etc.

Doug

[ranchwest]

I don't sell anything. I know nothing about the product. I didn't even know what product it was.

My point is that you don't seem to know anything about the product and yet, based on one race, you want to follow it in the future. If you know that it is consistently good, then that is great. If you know it was successful once, I think any of us can be successful once, you could yourself, without depending on someone else.

[Doug]

Ranchwest,

My point is that you don't seem to know anything about the product and yet, based on one race, you want to follow it in the future. If you know that it is consistently good, then that is great. If you know it was successful once, I think any of us can be successful once, you could yourself, without depending on someone else.


Well son, you could have just asked what I do or don't know about the product and if I thought it was any good or not. Would have been more than happy to answear that. You sure went to some extreme analogies to make a point and I would have to conclude that if you have to go that far out of the box you really don't have a knowledgable point to make.

Seems quite a few folks on this board seem to get their panties in a bundle when someone makes a post that they have a problem with. Such as yourself. In my opinion you have no point you are just trying to look superior to the rest of us.

Doug

[ranchwest]

Doug,

I was trying to answer YOUR questions. Trying to be helpful. Trying to get you to look beyond the numbers and realize that if the numbers were there the horse wouldn't be paying $93 to win.

I'm not the one who had a problem with things, but the more I tried to help you the more intolerant you got of me. Now, I can tell you that if you want intolerant you came to the right place. You better get out of MY FACE or I'll let you know what intolerant is, SON.

[PaceAdvantage]

Starting to teeter off topic.....hand - reaching - for mouse --- pointing to CLOSE button --- can't control much longer ---



Come on guys, lets stay on topic and play nice....there is no point to the conversation that has developed...really, there isn't.....if you don't believe me, go back and read it again



==PA

[Rexdale You]

IMHO,,,,In your class discussion it looks like you are not taking the race distance into account,,,Unless all the races you included are equal ,,which i doubt,,,the distance factor is crucial to the final decision,,,Rex You,,,:cool: :cool:

[superfecta]

Originally posted by ranchwest
Doug,

I was trying to answer YOUR questions. Trying to be helpful. Trying to get you to look beyond the numbers and realize that if the numbers were there the horse wouldn't be paying $93 to win.

I'm not the one who had a problem with things, but the more I tried to help you the more intolerant you got of me. Now, I can tell you that if you want intolerant you came to the right place. You better get out of MY FACE or I'll let you know what intolerant is, SON. Dang ranch,as an impartial looker,it looked like you smarted off first...so I wouldn't be so surly...Doug made the point some computer or tout service had the horse.Even for a blind stab in the dark that was a nice pick.Now don't be getting all high and rightious on us ..thats Boxcars job:)

[ranchwest]

I'm not sure what is happening here. Doug pointed out that this $93 horse was picked by some product.

Throughout, my contention has been that this race was best handicapped as a claiming move, not by anyone's numbers. Also, my suggestion was to use your own picks, not someone else's because you don't have an adequate basis for knowing whether someone else's numbers will produce more winners. If someone had numbers that could consistently pick $93 horses, we wouldn't have any more $93 horses.

Suddenly, I was being accused of claiming my software was better than their's. I never said anything about my software and knew nothing about their's.

I was accused of being in the software business, which I'm not.

I was called "son" in a condescending manner.

Why? Why did Doug start out as the man on the street pointing out that this product is good and end up attacking me because I didn't endorse the product? A product that I readily admitted that I know absolutely nothing about. Why did he suddenly start challenging me to inquire about his knowledge of the product?

If this were any other forum, I would probably be passing out high five's all around that some guy picked a $93 horse, no easy feat. This is a handicapper's forum and I just happen to think that as handicappers we can probably pick these horses ourselves.

If my tone or presentation implied anything other than I was attempting to be of assistance (up until the point I was attacked), then I sincerely apologize because that was never my intent.

My only regret in defending myself is that PA's board was cluttered with this garbage and for that I do apologize.

[ranchwest]

And, besides, I don't want Box Car's job. :)

[BIG HIT]

Gentelmen thank's for all your views.I it always good to here opinion's.Really wanted to know when you guy's thought about betting a horse that lost to lesser and moveing up today. THANK'S AGIAN TO ALL