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View Full Version : Trip handicapping pit fall.


twindouble
03-17-2006, 02:57 PM
We all talk about having an edge playing the horses, trip handicapping can produce that edge but it's all in the eyes of the beholder plus changing conditions next out. Not evaluating the changing conditions and new competition your horse faces is one of those pit falls. Just because a horse went wide, checked, got boxed in doesn't mean he's a sure thing competing with different horses. He could very well end up in a tougher field and the lengths lost wouldn't be enough to carry the day. What gets my attention is when that horse actually had an improved race in spite of the loss of ground and he's coming back agains't the same company or lesser. That's the time to unload.




T.D.

GaryG
03-17-2006, 03:43 PM
Not only that but trouble lines are overemphasized. Just because a horse was boxed in does not mean he would have finished several lengths better. The jockey could have merely waited for an opening and conserved energy. As for wide trips. many horses nead clear sailing on the outside to run their best. Being hung wide on the first turn while challenging for the lead is another matter.

the_fat_man
03-17-2006, 03:48 PM
Race watching goes quite a bit beyond simply noting trouble trips.

twindouble
03-17-2006, 06:02 PM
Not only that but trouble lines are overemphasized. Just because a horse was boxed in does not mean he would have finished several lengths better. The jockey could have merely waited for an opening and conserved energy. As for wide trips. many horses nead clear sailing on the outside to run their best. Being hung wide on the first turn while challenging for the lead is another matter.

GaryG, I should have more to the point but I did say in the eyes of the beholder meaning watching the race not trouble lines.

Your right when it comes to running wide and clear sailing when the conditions and running style hold up. On the other hand other conditions present a different story. For example, your horse in outside post has speed and three others on the inside also have speed keeping him further out than he norm runs his race losing ground plus battling one another floating further out on the turns. His next race he's on the inside takes control of the race and sails home.

T.D.

twindouble
03-17-2006, 06:05 PM
Race watching goes quite a bit beyond simply noting trouble trips.

Please elaborate. That's why I started the thread.



Thanks,


T.D.

GaryG
03-17-2006, 07:14 PM
GaryG, I should have more to the point but I did say in the eyes of the beholder meaning watching the race not trouble lines.

Your right when it comes to running wide and clear sailing when the conditions and running style hold up. On the other hand other conditions present a different story. For example, your horse in outside post has speed and three others on the inside also have speed keeping him further out than he norm runs his race losing ground plus battling one another floating further out on the turns. His next race he's on the inside takes control of the race and sails home.

T.D.Amen....I have been cashing on these kind for years. Another favorite angle for my watch list is a speed horse who survives a vicious duel with hot fractions to finish maybe 4th when the other early leaders crack completely. Give this horse a softer pace scenario and you may have a very solid play. Hey, wait...you're not supposed to give away the good stuff!

so.cal.fan
03-17-2006, 09:36 PM
One of the more interesting and overlooked angles to race watching is to study a horses stride......you need a good up to date DVD multi player and a big high def. screen TV......but the rewards can be very impressive, if you know what you are looking for.
You not only can tell if a horse likes a certain type of surface, but you can actually spot improving or regressing condition.

toetoe
03-17-2006, 10:58 PM
I noticed something at AQ today. Motor City Mama was favored, ranged up, and couldn't catch the leader late. I noticed her stride was very short and choppy. It was good enough to beat the others, but she was taking two short strides for every one of the winner's, practically. Sometimes these things are illusory, but this was striking. This is more serious than just tiring from lack of conditioning. All the parts, lungs included, are working, but the legs are moving very stiffly.

twindouble
03-18-2006, 07:55 AM
I noticed something at AQ today. Motor City Mama was favored, ranged up, and couldn't catch the leader late. I noticed her stride was very short and choppy. It was good enough to beat the others, but she was taking two short strides for every one of the winner's, practically. Sometimes these things are illusory, but this was striking. This is more serious than just tiring from lack of conditioning. All the parts, lungs included, are working, but the legs are moving very stiffly.

That's part of what I meant by in the eyes of the beholder. Sometimes you can just look and compare the pace with other races the horse ran, could very well have been to hot and was actually spent and looks much worse when another in the race found his or her best stride. Another pit fall is tossing a horse that ran a competive race but didn't switch leads.

T.D.

the_fat_man
03-18-2006, 01:25 PM
I noticed something at AQ today. Motor City Mama was favored, ranged up, and couldn't catch the leader late. I noticed her stride was very short and choppy. It was good enough to beat the others, but she was taking two short strides for every one of the winner's, practically. Sometimes these things are illusory, but this was striking. This is more serious than just tiring from lack of conditioning. All the parts, lungs included, are working, but the legs are moving very stiffly.

I thought she was very, very game and finished in reasonably decent stride
considering that she got the worst of it (spotted the field 2 out of the gate and then went around the top 2, 3wide ES, losing some momentum -- WHY, jock?)

she lays on the winner with anything near an equal trip