Speed Figures/Process

[Cesario!]

Question: Do you guys who still make your own still see value in it?

If yes, I see two possible reasons: (1) Your figures are more accurate than Beyer -- which the general community views as the truth; (2) the process of making the figures provides deeper insight.

As for the 2nd, I always felt this way when I'd make the Sartin/Brohamer pace figures. While the information gleaned wasn't that special, the process of making them gave me an intuitive understanding of the race.

[Jeff P]

If yes, I see two possible reasons: (1) Your figures are more accurate than Beyer -- which the general community views as the truth; (2) the process of making the figures provides deeper insight.
If by having value you mean it can be used successfully to find an edge in the pools - then I would say a third category exists:

A speed figure doesn't have to be more accurate or provide deeper insight. If the figure itself has enough basis in reality so that it measures something valid - then to have value what it really needs to be is different from the more popular speed figures that are seen and used by everyone else.

-jp

.

[sjk]

A 4th reason. I haven't bought a paper or data with Beyer figures in 10 years and see no reason to do so. If I am in a place where I am offered a free racing form I enjoy the articles but do not look at the PPs.

It is possible to make your own numbers through an automated process that is essentially work-free. As long as they are effective what would be the reason to outsource.

[Overlay]

I think that even Beyer figures can still be useful as long as you view them in terms of weighted probabilities (rather than as an absolute guarantee of performance), and also take other major handicapping factors into account.

[AwolAtPA]

---It is possible to make your own numbers through an automated process that is essentially work-free. ---

please clarify.

I can not imagine how something can be automated AND work-free.

awol

[GameTheory]

please clarify.

I can not imagine how something can be automated AND work-free.

awolIsn't that what automated means?

[sjk]

I stand corrected.

For me the work to automate the process was done in 1993 so now it seems work-free. A signficant time investment is needed to make it all work. Other than that all you need is to download the daily chart information and that is no big deal.

[AwolAtPA]

xxx work to automate the process was done in 1993 --- all you need is to download the daily chart information and that is no big deal.

aaah, I am still confused!!

yes, this exposes my lack of knowing what happened in 1993, so, I must ask: What was done?

also, to me, a chart is the report of the results of a race.

so, if your '..daily chart..' is the past performances, then, would you educate me about how the '..work in 1993..' produces the magic answer about how to bet the race?

awol

[sjk]

I would not expect you to be aware that I was working on my own handicapping program in 1993 so the post above really has no practical application for you except as an indication of what has worked for me and might work for you or others many years later.

Nothing complicated. If you download chart or equivalent data as to the race results you can make numbers and use those in an automated handicapping program. If the results are satisfactory there is no reason to use external numbers.

I was wrong to say that this is work-free. There were thousands of hours of work for me in the mid 90s. The more correct statement is that if you can get things to work on an auotmated basis the ongoing work can be nil for many years going forward.

My work is of no use to you. Strictly do-it-yourself.

[AwolAtPA]

thank you SJK for your clarification.

and, I am back to my research cave in search of that do-it-yourself solution.

[FUGITIVE77]

I've been making my own speed figures for my circuit for over 25 years and yes they are far superior to the Beyer numbers, but then I think anyone with a little practice can make better figures than the Beyer numbers that appear in the form. I must stress that you must make the figures from actually watching the races and not just off the charts. On my circuit the Beyer numbers are way off on certain distances and this is where making your own figures is extremely profitable. I think the greatest edge is on grass where all the major speed figures tend to be way off. It took me a few years but I finally learned to make good turf numbers, master that and you will indeed have an edge.

[Murph]

Question: Do you guys who still make your own still see value in it?
Obviously.

If yes, I see two possible reasons: (1) Your figures are more accurate than Beyer -- which the general community views as the truth; (2) the process of making the figures provides deeper insight.
1. Absolutely.
2. The process of analyizing the figures provides deeper insight for me.

As for the 2nd, I always felt this way when I'd make the Sartin/Brohamer pace figures. While the information gleaned wasn't that special, the process of making them gave me an intuitive understanding of the race.
I felt the same way as you when I used Brohammer methods.

Murph

[kenwoodallpromos]

You got me thinking just now about making my own turf numbers or figuring hoew to improve existing ones. Sounds like a good angle!