Murph
03-16-2006, 02:17 PM
1. This race is for the cheapest horses allowed to run at AQU I believe.
16K maiden claimers. It will be difficult but not impossible to win some
money on this one. The mdn clm level will present a chaos scenario in
at least half of these types.
Lowest level run at track = CHAOS
I don't look at breeding in these races. Andy's sire race report at http://www.breedingwinners.com (http://www.breedingwinners.com/) has #8 as a layoff factor standout.
He also shows #4 as a dirt factor stickout. ( I didn't look at this until
after I wrote my analysis!) Here is his race analysis as clipped from the site ...
6: SHORT WAVE (#1)
3 year old maiden colt by Radio Star out of a Fast Play mare draws the rail today after getting outside posts in his last couple. Looks to have the best early speed except for maybe ZIP ZIP (#7) who takes a suspicous drop into a claimer after finishing 2nd against MSW foes last time. Threw out #2, 4 and 9.
I make #7 Zip Zip an immediate toss out. The report shows he didn't hit the WP in either start he is taking a huge triple class drop! I don't believe connections go from best purse to worst just to get a check. This is certainly (IMO) a negative class drop! If you want further evidence the
connection stats reveal that the OWNER has not hit the board this year. I don't expect them to improve today.
#8 Say I Do is a better example of a mdn class drop winner. Say I Do
is the only runner who has posted a speed rating anywhere close to par. 3rd lifetime start and an expected bounce off the first race set him up to improve today. Solid connections who can send a winner to the track.
#3 Conrads Crossing looks to be too far behind the early action to be effective today. Consistent type who should be ITM
#6 and #9 Running style. speed ratings and conections suggest not today.
Toss both.
That leaves us with 3 FTS runners who add more uncertainty to this witches brew we have going here. Note that 2 of these are rated in the
connections factor. #5 and #4 Jackie D.
#5 as you have pointed out has much in his favor. He is a definate contender who I predict will be over-bet for a FTS.
It's here that Ken intuitively suggests an angle play! His remarks bring some sanity to the idea of wagering on a mdn clm odds on runner. I can tell you Ken, that Michael Hushion is 12/60 with FTS over the last 3 years.
His average payout on 8 winners from 52 starters at this meet is $5.49
That's less than 2-1.
I'm going to toss the 2 here as well. We don't have much to go on except this is a lower rated barn in this field.
That leaves me with #4 Jackie D.
When I identify a chaos setup like this one I prefer to play exocit wagers, usually an exacta wheel of some sort. Angle plays are a logical way to proceed with trying to find a winner. #4 has a couple of angles I like.
Pablo Fragoso has a reputation for riding young horses with much talent in handling them properly to run their best race. I jump on him with FTS starters with decent (not huge) ODDS. He is winning 11% for the meet but his win rate with 3yo's and younger is at least double that most seasons. The trainer, TERRANOVA II JOHN P. 17% is competent but does not have as many horses as a Hushion. He has no less experience though.
NOW add to this the fact that the owner CURRAGH STABLES 0% is looking for thier first win of the year as well. I'd like to point out here Tony that we took different positions deciding how to use the owner stat. You decided that it wasn't a negative for your selection as I did, BUT for different reasons!
What better way could Curragh celebrate St Patrick's Day than with starting the festivities in the winners circle at Aqueduct! In fact that is what I predict will be happening in just a few hours.
To finish this tome, I want to post my ticket based on my evaluation.
I want a solid contender and a FTS with good odds on top of this ticket.
#8 and #4 on top and boxed.
Then I want the contenders below these 2. #1, #3 and #5.
I would then make a win wager, based on tote action, on either of my top
2. As I don't have that luxury here, I will say bet both to win.
Win bet $6 #4 and $4 #8 - Dutch $10
$2 exacta box #4 and #8 - $4
$1 exacta wheel #4 and #8 WITH #1, #3 and #5 - $6
A $20 total wager. Reasonable considering the risks of wagering on this race. What do you think? I gotta go dye my shirt green!
Good cappin' to you all,
Murph
_________________
Class - Conditioning - Consistency
16K maiden claimers. It will be difficult but not impossible to win some
money on this one. The mdn clm level will present a chaos scenario in
at least half of these types.
Lowest level run at track = CHAOS
I don't look at breeding in these races. Andy's sire race report at http://www.breedingwinners.com (http://www.breedingwinners.com/) has #8 as a layoff factor standout.
He also shows #4 as a dirt factor stickout. ( I didn't look at this until
after I wrote my analysis!) Here is his race analysis as clipped from the site ...
6: SHORT WAVE (#1)
3 year old maiden colt by Radio Star out of a Fast Play mare draws the rail today after getting outside posts in his last couple. Looks to have the best early speed except for maybe ZIP ZIP (#7) who takes a suspicous drop into a claimer after finishing 2nd against MSW foes last time. Threw out #2, 4 and 9.
I make #7 Zip Zip an immediate toss out. The report shows he didn't hit the WP in either start he is taking a huge triple class drop! I don't believe connections go from best purse to worst just to get a check. This is certainly (IMO) a negative class drop! If you want further evidence the
connection stats reveal that the OWNER has not hit the board this year. I don't expect them to improve today.
#8 Say I Do is a better example of a mdn class drop winner. Say I Do
is the only runner who has posted a speed rating anywhere close to par. 3rd lifetime start and an expected bounce off the first race set him up to improve today. Solid connections who can send a winner to the track.
#3 Conrads Crossing looks to be too far behind the early action to be effective today. Consistent type who should be ITM
#6 and #9 Running style. speed ratings and conections suggest not today.
Toss both.
That leaves us with 3 FTS runners who add more uncertainty to this witches brew we have going here. Note that 2 of these are rated in the
connections factor. #5 and #4 Jackie D.
#5 as you have pointed out has much in his favor. He is a definate contender who I predict will be over-bet for a FTS.
It's here that Ken intuitively suggests an angle play! His remarks bring some sanity to the idea of wagering on a mdn clm odds on runner. I can tell you Ken, that Michael Hushion is 12/60 with FTS over the last 3 years.
His average payout on 8 winners from 52 starters at this meet is $5.49
That's less than 2-1.
I'm going to toss the 2 here as well. We don't have much to go on except this is a lower rated barn in this field.
That leaves me with #4 Jackie D.
When I identify a chaos setup like this one I prefer to play exocit wagers, usually an exacta wheel of some sort. Angle plays are a logical way to proceed with trying to find a winner. #4 has a couple of angles I like.
Pablo Fragoso has a reputation for riding young horses with much talent in handling them properly to run their best race. I jump on him with FTS starters with decent (not huge) ODDS. He is winning 11% for the meet but his win rate with 3yo's and younger is at least double that most seasons. The trainer, TERRANOVA II JOHN P. 17% is competent but does not have as many horses as a Hushion. He has no less experience though.
NOW add to this the fact that the owner CURRAGH STABLES 0% is looking for thier first win of the year as well. I'd like to point out here Tony that we took different positions deciding how to use the owner stat. You decided that it wasn't a negative for your selection as I did, BUT for different reasons!
What better way could Curragh celebrate St Patrick's Day than with starting the festivities in the winners circle at Aqueduct! In fact that is what I predict will be happening in just a few hours.
To finish this tome, I want to post my ticket based on my evaluation.
I want a solid contender and a FTS with good odds on top of this ticket.
#8 and #4 on top and boxed.
Then I want the contenders below these 2. #1, #3 and #5.
I would then make a win wager, based on tote action, on either of my top
2. As I don't have that luxury here, I will say bet both to win.
Win bet $6 #4 and $4 #8 - Dutch $10
$2 exacta box #4 and #8 - $4
$1 exacta wheel #4 and #8 WITH #1, #3 and #5 - $6
A $20 total wager. Reasonable considering the risks of wagering on this race. What do you think? I gotta go dye my shirt green!
Good cappin' to you all,
Murph
_________________
Class - Conditioning - Consistency