velocity vs postional

[46zilzal]

this one did not win, lost by a 1 3/4 lengths but was 14/1

Velocity said this one would be right there. How in the world would POSTIONAL Broahmmer, get this one?

[46zilzal]

how does one miss POSITIONAL twice in one post??

[twindouble]

I really don't get this "velocity" handicapping. A horses velocity or sustained velocity can be use at any given point in a race, that's why we pay so much attention to pace. Unless a horse is one dimensional and that's speed. Clue me in.


Thanks,

T.D.

[46zilzal]

I really don't get this "velocity" handicapping. A horses velocity or sustained velocity can be use at any given point in a race, that's why we pay so much attention to pace. Unless a horse is one dimensional and that's speed. Clue me in.


If the horse is the pacesetter it is easy:that one gets the velocity of the time (ft/sec)..if another is behind, the equivalent (in feet) of beaten lenghts are subtracted from the projected velocity of that horse. usually it is then looked at in increments (usually three) during the race. the idea is that horse's have built in energy distrubtional patterns (mostly the cheaper stock) that repeat whether the PACE allows them near the lead or if the PACE is so fast that they chase: they usually have somewhat close to the same energy distribution of their velocity.

[cj]

Velocity handicapping is the same thing as handicapping using speed and pace figures. It just expresses the same thing in a different way.

Velocity is how fast a horse runs. Whether you express it in time, or a figure, or in feet per second, it is all the same.

[46zilzal]

Velocity handicapping is the same thing as handicapping using speed and pace figures. It just expresses the same thing in a different way.

Velocity is how fast a horse runs. Whether you express it in time, or a figure, or in feet per second, it is all the same.
no argument there

[46zilzal]

here is an incremental velocity display of the 9th today (3/14) at Philadelphia Prk and, as usual in ultrashort sprints, the best velocity to the 2nd call (#1 forgot to take out the 1A) won this race.

[OTM Al]

Just curious....are the pace calculations you have there the basic ones that Brohammer outlined in his book (they look to be in that range) or have you tinkered with his formulas?

I've tried to play around with using pace, but have not got it down well enough yet for it to make a major impact on my selections. At this point I can see the ESP pretty well and always use the speed points to help me visualize race shape, but I do want to work on pace velocity numbers as I think often times the neglect there is leaving a hole in what I am doing.

[twindouble]

Velocity handicapping is the same thing as handicapping using speed and pace figures. It just expresses the same thing in a different way.

Velocity is how fast a horse runs. Whether you express it in time, or a figure, or in feet per second, it is all the same.

The jock has control over when a horse reaches his true or estimated Velocity. That energy can be used early, middle, late or gradually released and in many cases very late not using up or expending all the energy available. To scale speed and pace, to include the above plus biases, track condition, checking, going wide, boxed in, inside and outside post positions expending energy getting position, stumbled bad last race, ruffed up squeezed last out, form cycles, layoffs, prepping, class drops, young horses moving up on the improve, added distance, better jock, lighter weight, turf to dirt and so on.

I know your speed and pace figures are much respected here so if your overall handicapping includes the above to make your picks, everything will make more sense to me. I'm thick headed as you know when it comes to modern handicapping.

T.D.

[cj]

Just curious twin, how did you go from this:

I really don't get this "velocity" handicapping.

to this:

The jock has control over when a horse reaches his true or estimated Velocity.That energy can be used early, middle, late or gradually released and in many cases very late not using up or expending all the energy available...

in like two hours?

All I was saying is velocity handicapping is measuring how fast a horse ran at the finish, as well as other parts of the race. Which format you use to display this velocity is a matter of personal preference.

As for your list, yes, I handicap looking at those factors, no question about it. I use the figures to try and determine two things, ability of the horse and current form. The other things you mention play a role in these determinations as well, but they are not part of the figures I make, or velocity handicapping.

[46zilzal]

Just curious....are the pace calculations you have there the basic ones that Brohammer outlined in his book (they look to be in that range) or have you tinkered with his formulas?
.
feet per second as is

[OTM Al]

Okay, that is what I thought, so to ask another pesky question then, what is totalling the 3 fractionals buying you? I can totally see the validity of using straight second call pace in a 4 1/2 f sprint, but don't understand the use of a totalling of units.

Sorry if youve been asked this a hundred times before, but just want to pick the brain of someone who has a good feel for these as I haven't gotten comfortable with them yet.

[46zilzal]

Okay, that is what I thought, so to ask another pesky question then, what is totalling the 3 fractionals buying you? I can totally see the validity of using straight second call pace in a 4 1/2 f sprint, but don't understand the use of a totalling of units.

Sorry if youve been asked this a hundred times before, but just want to pick the brain of someone who has a good feel for these as I haven't gotten comfortable with them yet.
another way of getting the overall contribution of the incremental velocities and then one looks at their distribution. OFTEN horses with LARGER totals and the wrong distribution for the standards of each course and distance, DO NOT WIN.

In Sartin methodology the sum of the three incrementals is referred to as total energy.

[OTM Al]

Okay. I think I see it then. The distribution you are talking about is like he % Early Brohammer talks about...so if you have a large total and the %Early falls in to the range which is the "par" for winning at the distance, then the horse should be considered, but if the %Early is out of whack for one with a big total, then he should be downgraded, at least for the win.

Thanks. I need to do some reread on this stuff, but this basic description helps alot.

[46zilzal]

let's say TWO horses (formful right now) have 10 units total energy
A) distributes it the ratio 5-3-2
B) distributes it in this ratio 2-3-5

if these two met in a sprint, A is the choice even though the totals are the same

IF it were a middle TURF route, B is the choice

[46zilzal]

The jock has control over when a horse reaches his true or estimated Velocity. That energy can be used early, middle, late or gradually released and in many cases very late not using up or expending all the energy available.
Gee I wish that were true: myabe if they put in a trottle the rider could PUSH harder.

RIDERS, though they can manage a bit of change, cannot alter the style of MOST horses, particularly the cheapies.

[RXB]

this one did not win, lost by a 1 3/4 lengths but was 14/1

Velocity said this one would be right there. How in the world would POSTIONAL Broahmmer, get this one?

Picking one race and saying that it is representative is ridiculous, and you (should) know it.

[46zilzal]

Picking one race and saying that it is representative is ridiculous, and you (should) know it.
I don' want to clutter this board with multuple examples gleaned from YEARS of records so I won't.

[RXB]

And I'll won't clutter it with all the situations where positional tendencies played havoc with velocity ratings.

[46zilzal]

And I'll won't clutter it with all the situations where positional tendencies played havoc with velocity ratings.
then were agree to disagree.
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
6 C Senor Alan Garcia 23.60 7.80 5.40
8 Big Boo Boo Kyle Kaenel 3.70 2.70
2 He's Up to Snuff Pablo Morales 2.90

[twindouble]

Gee I wish that were true: myabe if they put in a trottle the rider could PUSH harder.

RIDERS, though they can manage a bit of change, cannot alter the style of MOST horses, particularly the cheapies.

I didn't think I'd hear that from you 46, you are now a 36.:) If anyone would believe what you just said there's no such thing as pace, well just a little bit. :bang:

T.D.

[Zaf]

Races where P & S types horses have the #1 ranking in FR-1 velocity. I see a lot of races like this. Most of the time these types don't have a shot to get the top. They just confuse my handicapping processes even more :confused:

Z

[Tom]

HTR pegged the Tam horse a S and either his last line of three back made him the second best closer in the race with moves begining in F@ and sustaining through F3.

Positional was easy here - he was a closer- his thord back shows a visual late move. He was well wtihin his comfort zone stretching out - it was not like he needed the lead or would be too far back. Postitional loses its impact with rear runners - they do not didtate pace, they react to it.

[46zilzal]

He was well wtihin his comfort zone stretching out - it was not like he needed the lead or would be too far back. Postitional loses its impact with rear runners - they do not dictate pace, they react to it.
BINGO

[Tom]

And Sunday, at Aqueduct, we saw several examples of postioanl comfort zones dooming horses chances.

[DJofSD]

RIDERS, though they can manage a bit of change, cannot alter the style of MOST horses, particularly the cheapies.

In one sense, this is a measure of class -- how much or how little a horse can 'run outside the box.'

[Tom]

That's three times for p-o-s-i-t-i-o-n-a-l in this thread! :blush:

[46zilzal]

see it all the time. Pace is too fast and they exhaust themselves trying to maintain position but that is predicted in their energy distribution/total energy going into the contest.

[46zilzal]

In one sense, this is a measure of class -- how much or how little a horse can 'run outside the box.'
one of the greatest ever at doing that was FOREGO...Very few come anywhere close to that

[michiken]

Attached is one of my graphs that shows the energy distribution for last years derby:

1. The blue arrow indicates the horses ability times or possible position coming out of the final turn.

2. The width of the red bar indicates the gas in the tank or energy left to run the remainder of the race.

3. The black arrow indicates the horses speed figure. Depending on the shape of the pace, I try to use the width of the red bar to discern whether or not the horse can reproduce the speed rating.

4. Notice how all of the favorites 15 Bandini, 6 High Fly, 16 Bellamy Road and other early pace contenders have red bar widths less than 80.

5. With all of these high rated early horses an insane pace would insue. It would be almost impossible to figure which early speed might survive.

6. Scanning down the list, It isn't until you get down to the 10 horse - Giacomo and 12 Afleet Alex that you start seeing the red bar width above 85 - somewhat of a target I use to rule out weak front/cheap speed.

7. Giacomo got a pace duel I suspect he will never get again.....

8. Every race has a different velocity pattern and the horses success will depend on whether it is at the right distance and whether the jock is smart enough how much gas he has and when to use it.

... Just my 2 cents ....