DerbyTrail
03-13-2006, 09:31 AM
WEEKEND RECAP/DERBY 30
By Steve Byk
DerbyTrail.com/At the Races and Beyond
HOLLENDORFER GIVES FANS "CAUSE TO BELIEVE"
The weekend was light on the Derby Trail with the California Derby the lone important stake. Cause to Believe confirmed what you've been hearing in this space since January: Jerry Hollendorfer has another Kentucky Derby horse. The grey son of Maria's Mon left himself some work to do under Russell Baze, but corralled free-ranging and rail-bumping Sinister Minister with an eighth to run and went on to win by four lengths in a sharp 1:41.
It is the 6th win in 9 starts for the Overbrook-bred colt, with four of them stakes, and he has never been worse than second in his career. Hollendorfer will point his latest NoCal star for the Illinois Derby on the big April 8 weekend where he will join Saint Augustus and Sharp Humor, with owners Abruzzo & Redekop happily fronting $6,000 to nominate their charge to the Triple Crown. He is one of the most intriguing rose run prospects out there, and is eminently easy to root for. Originally pinhooked as a yearling for $50,000, the $350,000 earner was purchased by his current connections for just $30,000 at the Ocala March sale one year ago.
As we wrote in January, Cause to Believe has a pedigree that offers conflicting evidence towards his potential beyond middle distances. His sire line is classic Raise A Native as a son of Maria's Mon (Monarchos), but second dam Cuddles is by Mr. Prospector which could limit his endurance. At the same time, fourth dam Square Angel is a daughter of Belmont winner Quadrangle and produced the $450,000 Gr. I winner Love Smitten (Apple Blossom H.). After her racing career, Love Smitten became famed as the dam of Swain, the brilliant son of Nashwan that amassed a 22/10-4-6 mark with five Group One victories earning $3.7 million for Sheikh Mo. A horse with unquestionable staying ability, Swain was the likely winner of the 1998 Breeders' Cup Classic if not for the left-handed stick antics of leaping nincompoop Frankie Dettori.
Cause to Believe, #21 on our Derby Thirty last month, moves to #10 now that his participation in further Trail action is assured.
THE AFOREMENTIONED "DERBY 30"...
We glanced back at last month's "Top 30" over the weekend and were pleased to see that our original conception of the likely Louisville runners was quite precient as things have progressed. Nearly every dropout from the list was an injured or derailed hopeful, with Half Ours (#9), Latent Heat (#11), High Cotton (#18), One Union (#23), Barbican (#28) and Desert Quest (#30) begging off the list due to ailments and R Loyal Man (#27), described as "mile oriented", dropping out as after confirming our distance limitation suspicions. Here's the mid-March projection of the colts we see as "most likely to"...
DERBY 30 (#Current/#Previously)
1. (#1) BOB AND JOHN: Impressed in 9f Sham; Gets SA Derby prep in Felipe next..
2. (#4) BROTHER DEREK: Good at 2, better at 3; Doing everything right; SA Derby next..
3. (#2) FIRST SAMURAI: 2 turn experience under belt; DTer Robbins' colt a likely Bluegrass winner..
4. (#3) ACHILLES OF TROY: Goes Sat. in Gotham; Barn turmoil affects horses, a real concern here..
5. (#5) SWEETNORTHERNSAINT: Stretched easily to 8f last; Gets big test in Sat. Gotham v. Troy/Entry/Oldsalt..
6. (#7) BLUEGRASS CAT: Nashua-Remsen-Davis winner 100% healthy; Velasquez-endored with commit..
7. (#13) CORNITHIAN: Jerkens-Centennial DQ'd FOY winner needs work, but clearly in possession of big talent..
8. (#17) KEYED ENTRY: Pletcher Hutch winner gets 2-turn test next in Gotham; big threat if successful..
9. (#25) LAWYER RON: Respecting more, but not convinced yet; answers should come from Rebel results..
10. (#21) CAUSE TO BELIEVE: Hollendorfer El Camino-Cal winner now TC certainty; IL Derby next..
11. (#14) FLASHY BULL: West Pointer steady, honest in Holy Bull 3rd/FOY 2nd; FL Derby next..
12. (#8) MY GOLDEN SONG: Always right behind Flashy Bull, so logic dictates Pletcher grey here..
13. (#20) STEPPENWOLFER: Dan Pietz' Aptitude grey tries "Ron" again in Rebel; expect his best in AK Derby
14. (#6) JAZIL: McLaughlin-Shadwell colt bled in FOY; Flies to NY on 14th to Bluegrass prep..
15. (#19) BARBARO: Won't believe dirt till we see it; FL Derby next but that's it for pre-Derby preps..
16. (#22) PRIVATE VOW: 2 pre-Derby starts a major negative; get read on future with Rebel starts..
17. (#26) POINT DETERMINED: Point Given colt one of 4 from Baffert in Saturday's Felipe, and still viable..
18. (#16) GREAT POINT: Willing to forgive FOY flop with slow pace; Zito pondering next move..
19. (n/a) STRONG CONTENDER: Ward/Oxley playing catchup with talented runner; Lanes' End an odd spot..
20. (#12) HESANOLDSALT: Zito/Live Oak may have hated Tampa; Will go Gotham in surprise move..
21. (n/a) SUNRIVER: Don't forget sharp Pletcher's ALW winner early on FOY card..
22. (n/a) SHOWING UP: Tagg's stunning record-breaker suddenly a Wood likely..
23. (n/a) A.P. WARRIOR: Hard to imagine what Shirreffs could do differently; Felipe will tell..
24. (#24) RACKETEER: Frankel's Awesome Again now last hope with "Heat & On Board" adrift..
25. (n/a) SACRED LIGHT: Hoffmans' impressive runner-up to "Derek" another new darkhorse..
26. (n/a) SAINT AUGUSTUS: Dogwood Ballado colt reclaimed hopeful status; IL Derby next..
27. (n/a) REFINERY: Victory Gallop son yet another important Felipe participant;
28. (n/a) REHOBOTH: Has escaped notice despite best FOY run-out: FL Derby shocker?
29. (n/a) HIGH BLUES: 2nd to Sunriver.. 3rd to Corith-Jazil before that; bona-fide..
30. (#29) NOONMARK: Swale runner-up still part of Asmussen's Derby hopes; Lexington next..
Still watching...
ON BOARD AGAIN: Stronach-Adena product circled good GP ALW field; Finally back on worktab..
DISCREET CAT: Tore it up in Dubai last week..
LEWIS MICHAEL: Catalano-Calabrese colt will land somewhere; HAW for Derby?
POINT OF IMPACT: Brain-dead Baffert colt will keep hope alive in the Felipe..
LAITY: Brothers' Battaglia winner will come back in Lanes' End..
CAN'T BEAT IT: Don't be surprised if Wolfson tries again on main in FL Derby..
DEPUTY GLITTERS: Liked TBD in B'grass Cat's Davis; Gotham or TB Derby Saturday..
FRIDAY RECAP:
A rather poor effort Friday at Aqueduct, with two chalk exactas in the 5th and 9th. The 8th returned the exotics in boxes taking all 5 tabs to do it. We suggested 1-7-4-6-9 and it came back 9-1-4-6-7. Hopefully the decent mutuels there softened the blow on the day...
No plays for Monday. We'll look at Tampa tonight on Talking Horses...
Hope you had a great weekend..
Steve
Listen to Steve M-F 4-7pm on "Talking Horses", SIRIUS Sports 125 or at http://attheracesandbeyond.com. Visit Derby Trail at www.groups.yahoo.com/group/derbytrail
By Steve Byk
DerbyTrail.com/At the Races and Beyond
HOLLENDORFER GIVES FANS "CAUSE TO BELIEVE"
The weekend was light on the Derby Trail with the California Derby the lone important stake. Cause to Believe confirmed what you've been hearing in this space since January: Jerry Hollendorfer has another Kentucky Derby horse. The grey son of Maria's Mon left himself some work to do under Russell Baze, but corralled free-ranging and rail-bumping Sinister Minister with an eighth to run and went on to win by four lengths in a sharp 1:41.
It is the 6th win in 9 starts for the Overbrook-bred colt, with four of them stakes, and he has never been worse than second in his career. Hollendorfer will point his latest NoCal star for the Illinois Derby on the big April 8 weekend where he will join Saint Augustus and Sharp Humor, with owners Abruzzo & Redekop happily fronting $6,000 to nominate their charge to the Triple Crown. He is one of the most intriguing rose run prospects out there, and is eminently easy to root for. Originally pinhooked as a yearling for $50,000, the $350,000 earner was purchased by his current connections for just $30,000 at the Ocala March sale one year ago.
As we wrote in January, Cause to Believe has a pedigree that offers conflicting evidence towards his potential beyond middle distances. His sire line is classic Raise A Native as a son of Maria's Mon (Monarchos), but second dam Cuddles is by Mr. Prospector which could limit his endurance. At the same time, fourth dam Square Angel is a daughter of Belmont winner Quadrangle and produced the $450,000 Gr. I winner Love Smitten (Apple Blossom H.). After her racing career, Love Smitten became famed as the dam of Swain, the brilliant son of Nashwan that amassed a 22/10-4-6 mark with five Group One victories earning $3.7 million for Sheikh Mo. A horse with unquestionable staying ability, Swain was the likely winner of the 1998 Breeders' Cup Classic if not for the left-handed stick antics of leaping nincompoop Frankie Dettori.
Cause to Believe, #21 on our Derby Thirty last month, moves to #10 now that his participation in further Trail action is assured.
THE AFOREMENTIONED "DERBY 30"...
We glanced back at last month's "Top 30" over the weekend and were pleased to see that our original conception of the likely Louisville runners was quite precient as things have progressed. Nearly every dropout from the list was an injured or derailed hopeful, with Half Ours (#9), Latent Heat (#11), High Cotton (#18), One Union (#23), Barbican (#28) and Desert Quest (#30) begging off the list due to ailments and R Loyal Man (#27), described as "mile oriented", dropping out as after confirming our distance limitation suspicions. Here's the mid-March projection of the colts we see as "most likely to"...
DERBY 30 (#Current/#Previously)
1. (#1) BOB AND JOHN: Impressed in 9f Sham; Gets SA Derby prep in Felipe next..
2. (#4) BROTHER DEREK: Good at 2, better at 3; Doing everything right; SA Derby next..
3. (#2) FIRST SAMURAI: 2 turn experience under belt; DTer Robbins' colt a likely Bluegrass winner..
4. (#3) ACHILLES OF TROY: Goes Sat. in Gotham; Barn turmoil affects horses, a real concern here..
5. (#5) SWEETNORTHERNSAINT: Stretched easily to 8f last; Gets big test in Sat. Gotham v. Troy/Entry/Oldsalt..
6. (#7) BLUEGRASS CAT: Nashua-Remsen-Davis winner 100% healthy; Velasquez-endored with commit..
7. (#13) CORNITHIAN: Jerkens-Centennial DQ'd FOY winner needs work, but clearly in possession of big talent..
8. (#17) KEYED ENTRY: Pletcher Hutch winner gets 2-turn test next in Gotham; big threat if successful..
9. (#25) LAWYER RON: Respecting more, but not convinced yet; answers should come from Rebel results..
10. (#21) CAUSE TO BELIEVE: Hollendorfer El Camino-Cal winner now TC certainty; IL Derby next..
11. (#14) FLASHY BULL: West Pointer steady, honest in Holy Bull 3rd/FOY 2nd; FL Derby next..
12. (#8) MY GOLDEN SONG: Always right behind Flashy Bull, so logic dictates Pletcher grey here..
13. (#20) STEPPENWOLFER: Dan Pietz' Aptitude grey tries "Ron" again in Rebel; expect his best in AK Derby
14. (#6) JAZIL: McLaughlin-Shadwell colt bled in FOY; Flies to NY on 14th to Bluegrass prep..
15. (#19) BARBARO: Won't believe dirt till we see it; FL Derby next but that's it for pre-Derby preps..
16. (#22) PRIVATE VOW: 2 pre-Derby starts a major negative; get read on future with Rebel starts..
17. (#26) POINT DETERMINED: Point Given colt one of 4 from Baffert in Saturday's Felipe, and still viable..
18. (#16) GREAT POINT: Willing to forgive FOY flop with slow pace; Zito pondering next move..
19. (n/a) STRONG CONTENDER: Ward/Oxley playing catchup with talented runner; Lanes' End an odd spot..
20. (#12) HESANOLDSALT: Zito/Live Oak may have hated Tampa; Will go Gotham in surprise move..
21. (n/a) SUNRIVER: Don't forget sharp Pletcher's ALW winner early on FOY card..
22. (n/a) SHOWING UP: Tagg's stunning record-breaker suddenly a Wood likely..
23. (n/a) A.P. WARRIOR: Hard to imagine what Shirreffs could do differently; Felipe will tell..
24. (#24) RACKETEER: Frankel's Awesome Again now last hope with "Heat & On Board" adrift..
25. (n/a) SACRED LIGHT: Hoffmans' impressive runner-up to "Derek" another new darkhorse..
26. (n/a) SAINT AUGUSTUS: Dogwood Ballado colt reclaimed hopeful status; IL Derby next..
27. (n/a) REFINERY: Victory Gallop son yet another important Felipe participant;
28. (n/a) REHOBOTH: Has escaped notice despite best FOY run-out: FL Derby shocker?
29. (n/a) HIGH BLUES: 2nd to Sunriver.. 3rd to Corith-Jazil before that; bona-fide..
30. (#29) NOONMARK: Swale runner-up still part of Asmussen's Derby hopes; Lexington next..
Still watching...
ON BOARD AGAIN: Stronach-Adena product circled good GP ALW field; Finally back on worktab..
DISCREET CAT: Tore it up in Dubai last week..
LEWIS MICHAEL: Catalano-Calabrese colt will land somewhere; HAW for Derby?
POINT OF IMPACT: Brain-dead Baffert colt will keep hope alive in the Felipe..
LAITY: Brothers' Battaglia winner will come back in Lanes' End..
CAN'T BEAT IT: Don't be surprised if Wolfson tries again on main in FL Derby..
DEPUTY GLITTERS: Liked TBD in B'grass Cat's Davis; Gotham or TB Derby Saturday..
FRIDAY RECAP:
A rather poor effort Friday at Aqueduct, with two chalk exactas in the 5th and 9th. The 8th returned the exotics in boxes taking all 5 tabs to do it. We suggested 1-7-4-6-9 and it came back 9-1-4-6-7. Hopefully the decent mutuels there softened the blow on the day...
No plays for Monday. We'll look at Tampa tonight on Talking Horses...
Hope you had a great weekend..
Steve
Listen to Steve M-F 4-7pm on "Talking Horses", SIRIUS Sports 125 or at http://attheracesandbeyond.com. Visit Derby Trail at www.groups.yahoo.com/group/derbytrail