Dealing with losing...

[Cesario!]

I think the biggest problem with my handicapping is that I haven't accepted losing as part of it. Emotionally, I absolutely hate losing...and nothing is worse than a day with strings of losses. I know that it's part of the game, but I feel like a hitter who wants to get a hit every time up. It messes with my confidence -- I don't handicap as "loosely" when I'm losing, and I reduce my bets because I get scared.

I intellectually KNOW that I have to get over it in order to have successful long-time profits. And I absolutely love this game -- and I think my handicapping/betting/thinking is good enough to be succesful. I do worry that my personality (emotional, moods moving with highs and lows) may not be cut up for the gambling lifestyle.

Does anyone who has been there have any advice?

[GaryG]

I know exactly what you mean. My only advice is to trust your ability and try to forget a bad day, just like a football coach will burn the film when the team played badly. Maintain a level head and make the same plays you would make if you had been winning. Everybody shows short term losses but is the big picture that counts. Keep the faith and don't let the joneses get you.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

SOME TIPS TO KEEP YOUR EMOTIONAL CONTROL DURING LOSING PERIODS.

(1) REVIEW YOUR WAGERING LOG FOR THE PAST YEAR AND SEE THE LOSING PATTERNS THAT EMERGE DURING YOUR NORMAL PLAY.YOU WILL SEE THE PROOF THAT THESE LOSING RUNS ARE FOLLOWED BY WINNING RUNS,AND IF YOU ARE GENERALLY A VALUE HANDICAPPER YOUR PROFITS DURING THE WINNING RUN WILL OFFSET THE LOSSES DURING THE LOSING PERIOD.THIS BUILDS CONFIDENCE, WHICH IS VERY IMPORTANT.



(2) ALWAYS WRITE A REASON WHY YOU MAKE EVERY BET. THIS HELPS BECAUSE EVEN IF IT WAS A LOSING BET YOU CAN SAY "GOOD BET BAD RESULT" AND BE SATISFIED YOU ARE IN CONTROL OF YOUR BETTING ACTIVITY.

(3) MAINTAINING YOUR SELF-DISCIPLINE AND STICKING TO YOUR BETTING PLAN IS WHAT ACTUALLY MAKES IT POSSIBLE TO RETURN A PROFIT OVER THE LONG TERM.REMEMBER THE LOSERS BEGIN TO CHASE LOSSES AND GET BURIED.THEY HAVE NO SHOT.

(4) IT'S REALLY "ALL YOU" YOUR ABILITY AND WILLINGNESS TO HOLD YOUR BANKROLL UNINVESTED WHILE AWAITING THE SOLID OPPORTUNITIES IS THE KEY TO LONG TERM SUCCESS.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

GARY G 'S ADVICE IS REAL SOLID CESARIO.AN OLD TIME STOCK BROKER FRIEND OF MINE WHO WAS VERY SUCCESSFUL ALWAY'S BELIEVED THAT AFTER A DAYS SPECULATING HE WOULD BEFORE BED TIME PRESS HIS MENTAL ERASE BUTTON AND BEGIN THE NEXT DAY WITH CONFIDENCE.THIS IS SOMETHING THAT HE WORKED ON AND THIS GAVE HIM A BIG EDGE.

[surfdog89]

Patience.... easy to say hard to do..... Be more like a Sleuth... you know CSI.. in picking horses....... sometimes a place bet is better then a win bet. I have been a Mutual Clerk/Manager for more years then I like.... I have hit tickets for the public for many years and the people who win....... play a few races a day... then leave the OTB and watch the races on there computers. Make a record on what you bet. Moreover, Try to stick with one or two tracks. Relax..... It's like a glass bead game with a Herman Hesse novel... mental exercise.... see how the race will run before the race goes off.... the speed horses, the closers... the pace of the race. Theory is hindsight rehashed. Patience be more ......Zen like.......

[Cesario!]

Thanks for the advice. :)

A related aside: When its going well, I love the way the handicapping makes me think. I always lived in a black and white world, where right decisions were made on certainty and judged on results. But, I love the more realistic approach that requires assessing risk, instead of thinking in terms of right and wrong. I love that it requires patience to be successful. I love having the confidence to make a big bet that's not the popular choice and knowing it was right even why it loses. It's why I keep striving to be the best handicapper that I can be.

[46zilzal]

you have a REALITY day one: there are going to be times that you do everything right and nothing works. But the other side of the coin can be there too.

Having a Buddhist or Taoist outlook is a big step ahead in understanding dukkha (No single English word adequately captures the full depth, range, and subtlety of the crucial Pali term dukkha. Over the years, many translations of the word have been used ("stress," "unsatisfactoriness," "suffering," etc.). Each has its own merits in a given context. There is value in not letting oneself get too comfortable with any one particular translation of the word, since the entire thrust of Buddhist practice is the broadening and deepening of one's understanding of dukkha until its roots are finally exposed and eradicated once and for all. One helpful rule of thumb: as soon as you think you've found the single best translation for the word, think again: for no matter how you describe dukkha, it's always deeper, subtler, and more unsatisfactory than that.)

[keilan]

you have a REALITY day one: there are going to be times that you do everything right and nothing works. But the other side of the coin can be there too.

Having a Buddhist or Taoist outlook is a big step ahead in understanding dukkha (No single English word adequately captures the full depth, range, and subtlety of the crucial Pali term dukkha. Over the years, many translations of the word have been used ("stress," "unsatisfactoriness," "suffering," etc.). Each has its own merits in a given context. There is value in not letting oneself get too comfortable with any one particular translation of the word, since the entire thrust of Buddhist practice is the broadening and deepening of one's understanding of dukkha until its roots are finally exposed and eradicated once and for all. One helpful rule of thumb: as soon as you think you've found the single best translation for the word, think again: for no matter how you describe dukkha, it's always deeper, subtler, and more unsatisfactory than that.)


46 --I just love it when you open up to the masses, simply profound.

[46zilzal]

46 --I just love it when you open up to the masses, simply profound.
given our history, I don't know quite how to take that.

[46zilzal]

one of the MAIN tennants of Buddhist thought is that MANY aspects of one's life are unsatisfying. One of the NOBLE TRUTHS. Their philosophical teachings aid in the understanding of this pervasive and timeless problem.

How else would one describe the usual reaction to losing?

[Vegas711]

I would recommend that you restrict all your wagers to win bets ( 1 horse per race ) on horses 2-1 to 10 -1 odds. Concentrate more on selecting races that have less unknowns i.e. pass races with a lot of layoffs, shippers, first time starters. Your win % will go up along with your confidence and you will lessen your anxiety.


Grinders may be boring people, but we live longer :lol:

[Handiman]

I have to ask....do you know what Buddah's winning percentage was.....or was he an exacta player...or tifecta?



Handi

[dav4463]

After every race, win or lose, I write a little note on my list of possible plays. I write a note explaining WHY a particular horse won or lost and why I picked the horse I did. If I won, I write myself a note (great pick!), to keep the confidence up! I review these notes often and look for patterns and treat each loss as a learning experience.

[mhrussell]

"Train yourself to let go of everything you fear to lose" - Master Yoda


Losing streaks matter not. Winning streaks matter not. Find the calm in the center of yourself and in the center of samsara.

I think that is why we enjoy the challenge of this game. By its very nature, you must engage in this kind of thinking and reach SOME level of mastery in order to be successful. Handicapping as a meditation. It helps my game and in turn, it helps me with more important things I am dealing with now.

best,

[rrbauer]

For me, the biggest mind-cleanser is not an enema; it's a day off!

When I have a huge "crushed those muthers" day, I follow it with a day off.

When I have a huge "they ate my lunch at every turn" day, I follow it with a day off.

And, I mean a day off. Don't look at the DRF, don't look at HR on the internet, don't look at results, don't watch HRTV or TVG. Don't even visit the PA board (sorry PA).....

It works for me.

BTW....Buddha was/is a pace handicapper....has some posts at this board.

:)

[WJ47]

I get really troubled when one of the supertrainers beat me! Like when I'm playing a pick 3, and I leave out a Dutrow or Pletcher horse because they don't look logical from a handicapping standpoint. And then they win! That makes me crazy when I know that Pletcher beat me again! I've been trying to work on this problem. I really think I'd handicap better if I blacked out all the trainers and jockeys names on the forms. :)

I guess you just have to brush it aside when this happens and move on to the next race. In my nearly 20 years of playing, I've had alot of tough beats and to be honest, I still overreact! :)

[JackS]

I'd suggest that (if you haven't already) drop your present wager amount until you begin to profit. All money bet and lost shouldn't have any effect on your routine lifestyle such as bills or even postponed vacations.
If you consider yourself a profitable player, money lost now will have little effect on your yearly income from the races.
Accept losing streaks as normal and expect only that you have a fair chance with each bet you make. A loss should never be a surprise and a win shouldn't be a surprise either.
Maintaining a neutral attitude with a loss and a subdued attitude with a win helps me stay positive win or lose.
I've had days that toward the end of the card, I couldn't wait until it was over with. The next day I return I have an even, slight loss, slight profit, or large profit day and my outloook is boosted back into positive territory regardless.
As 46zilzal stated- weather 24hrs or a few days away from the races can make a big difference.

[twindouble]

Jacks, didn't we have an extensive thread on this subject a short time ago? If I remember right a lot good advise was put forward.


T.D.

[MONEY]

Here's a losing day for you.
I always put my top 4 picks in the order that I like them. Then make several bets keying my top pick over my other picks. I also like to go to the track early, put my bets in, then come home and watch the races on the internet. I don't bet online to prevent myself from betting on every race.
Well anyway a few days ago I bet 11 races. In 2 of the 11 races my 4th pick was a late scratch and I did not have the winner. Now get this, my 4th pick won the other 9 races. There were 3 cold tris. and a cold super (backwards). I couldn't have done this on purpose in a thousand years.
Frustrated, I took the tickets out of my wallet and separated the refund tickets, then tore up the losers and flushed them down the toilet. I have never done anything like that before.
Here's the kicker. As the tickets disappeared down into the sewer system, I realized that I might have flushed a $192. voucher down along with the losers. I quickly emptied out my wallet and the voucher was nowhere to be found. At that very moment I wished I had a dog.
To make a long story short. The next day I went to the track and won $400.
The moral of the story. Don't let losing get to your head, it will only make things worse. And of course bet only what you can afford to lose.

PS
If the losing really gets to you. I know where there's a bridge down here that you could jump off of. It's not very high though, I wouldn't want you to get hurt.

[bpiets]

:blush: I think the biggest problem with my handicapping is that I haven't accepted losing as part of it. Emotionally, I absolutely hate losing...and nothing is worse than a day with strings of losses. I know that it's part of the game, but I feel like a hitter who wants to get a hit every time up. It messes with my confidence -- I don't handicap as "loosely" when I'm losing, and I reduce my bets because I get scared.

I intellectually KNOW that I have to get over it in order to have successful long-time profits. And I absolutely love this game -- and I think my handicapping/betting/thinking is good enough to be succesful. I do worry that my personality (emotional, moods moving with highs and lows) may not be cut up for the gambling lifestyle.

Does anyone who has been there have any advice?
'I' cry a lot....( in many different ways....but it's' the tears that 'i' try an' hide.....).....

[zazzle]

My technique for handicapping is to dowse the race first, only looking at the horses names, I work with Brisnets flash enteries so there's no odds. This way I can most times take out horses that I know have three legs. Then I turn on the computer
program. Where I would go wrong, was in setting up the bets. And with several minutes to post, I would have mild panics and wanting not to miss the tri, I'd put in horses that I had dowsed out. Also if my top choice was practically dead on the board, another mild panic. This my dowsing always right? No I'm human I make mistakes like everyone else. So I had a real need to reprogram this panic situation.
The following is an excerpt from my website, it's taken a year of using this technique, but the results were worth the pain.


Of all the hundreds of lectures I attended at dowser’s meetings, this next exercise which was shared by a therapist, and I’m sorry that I can’t find his name, was and is the most powerful technique for subconscious scrubbing I’ve ever come across.

We all carry unwanted emotional ties to memories. Some of us carry these emotional ties to extremes and need years of therapy to help correct the past.

Using this technique immediately after a situation arises, will almost instantly release most of the unwanted emotional feelings from the memory. And if repeatedly performed can even be used to alter a bad habit. Ask me how I know.


To perform this exercise, take a moment and reflect on a emotional attachment to a memory that you don’t want to feel anymore. You understand that the memory will still be there, you will just think differently about it. Hold this memory firmly in your mind, bring it right up front and center.



Now put the fleshy part of your palms together. Your fingers will touch nothing during this exercise. You will hit your palms together with as much force as you can bear.

You will do this a total of six times, six hits of the palms, you do this with a rhythm and cadence. With the first hit you will say DE-ENERGIZE! and on the second hit you will say DISSAPATE! Now the third and fourth hits. DE-ENERGIZE! And DISSAPATE!

Fifth and sixth hits, DE-ENERGIZE! And DISSAPATE!

You have shaken your body, your hands will sting for several minutes afterward, but the emotional attachment will be altered, it will no longer have the same hold on you. Anytime this altered memory starts to manifest some emotion, just repeat the exercise.

[bpiets]

My technique for handicapping is to dowse the race first, only looking at the horses names, I work with Brisnets flash enteries so there's no odds. This way I can most times take out horses that I know have three legs. Then I turn on the computer
program. Where I would go wrong, was in setting up the bets. And with several minutes to post, I would have mild panics and wanting not to miss the tri, I'd put in horses that I had dowsed out. Also if my top choice was practically dead on the board, another mild panic. This my dowsing always right? No I'm human I make mistakes like everyone else. So I had a real need to reprogram this panic situation.
The following is an excerpt from my website, it's taken a year of using this technique, but the results were worth the pain.


Of all the hundreds of lectures I attended at dowser’s meetings, this next exercise which was shared by a therapist, and I’m sorry that I can’t find his name, was and is the most powerful technique for subconscious scrubbing I’ve ever come across.

We all carry unwanted emotional ties to memories. Some of us carry these emotional ties to extremes and need years of therapy to help correct the past.

Using this technique immediately after a situation arises, will almost instantly release most of the unwanted emotional feelings from the memory. And if repeatedly performed can even be used to alter a bad habit. Ask me how I know.


To perform this exercise, take a moment and reflect on a emotional attachment to a memory that you don’t want to feel anymore. You understand that the memory will still be there, you will just think differently about it. Hold this memory firmly in your mind, bring it right up front and center.


Now put the fleshy part of your palms together. Your fingers will touch nothing during this exercise. You will hit your palms together with as much force as you can bear.

You will do this a total of six times, six hits of the palms, you do this with a rhythm and cadence. With the first hit you will say DE-ENERGIZE! and on the second hit you will say DISSAPATE! Now the third and fourth hits. DE-ENERGIZE! And DISSAPATE!

Fifth and sixth hits, DE-ENERGIZE! And DISSAPATE!

You have shaken your body, your hands will sting for several minutes afterward, but the emotional attachment will be altered, it will no longer have the same hold on you. Anytime this altered memory starts to manifest some emotion, just repeat the exercise.

Like wow.....'me' 'i' just take a shower and 'if' 'it's' raining take 'my' hound dogs out for a walk and 'i' feel a lot better when they 'howl' with 'me' so's the tears have real meaning to those who pass by and have a laugh or two all the while a way just to cover up 'my' tears and appear to be 'laughing' .....there's a song there some-where.....P.S. ...isn't being >>>slapped <<< (stings tooooo....) around by 'family' Bad Enough...???....

[fmhealth]

Money, you may be able to "reclaim" that lost voucher. Has happened to me a few times. Simply go to the mutuel dept at the track. Tell them the machine or teller that sold you the voucher, the date & approximate time of the transaction. If you have a "Players Card" it's much easier. They should be able to find this voucher, cancel it & reissue you another one. Certainly worth a try.

[46zilzal]

46 --I just love it when you open up to the masses, simply profound.
I suppose we will have MORE to talk about: BerrytheGold had it's first breezing work (49.0) out (IN SOME TIME) today at someplace called the McCutcheon (spelling?) Training Center and might be back sometime soon.

[MONEY]

Money, you may be able to "reclaim" that lost voucher. Has happened to me a few times. Simply go to the mutuel dept at the track. Tell them the machine or teller that sold you the voucher, the date & approximate time of the transaction. If you have a "Players Card" it's much easier. They should be able to find this voucher, cancel it & reissue you another one. Certainly worth a try.

Thanks. I'll give it a try.

[chrisg]

Does anyone who has been there have any advice?


Be Water

[surfdog89]

I have cancel Lost and Stolen vocher's...... for the public. It has happened on the day the vocher was lost....... Tote which is separate company from Mutuals Department which is the track if you are at the track or OTB which usually is Magna Corporation can cancel the ticket......... if not the same day... the vocher is gone.............. Did that make sense? surfdog!! In short the lost or stolen ticket can be cancelled the day of the incident.

[RaceIsClosed]

I think the biggest problem with my handicapping is that I haven't accepted losing as part of it. Emotionally, I absolutely hate losing...and nothing is worse than a day with strings of losses. I know that it's part of the game, but I feel like a hitter who wants to get a hit every time up. It messes with my confidence -- I don't handicap as "loosely" when I'm losing, and I reduce my bets because I get scared.

I intellectually KNOW that I have to get over it in order to have successful long-time profits. And I absolutely love this game -- and I think my handicapping/betting/thinking is good enough to be succesful. I do worry that my personality (emotional, moods moving with highs and lows) may not be cut up for the gambling lifestyle.

Does anyone who has been there have any advice?

"No one ever got rich on the sidelines."

"That's why they pay so much when they win."

The only problem is if your losing is because you have no edge. Otherwise, it's just part of the game.

[46zilzal]

"No one ever got rich on the sidelines."


thats why this quote is right by me all the time.
"Far better is it to dare mighty things, to win glorius triumphs, even though checkered by failure... than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy nor suffer much, because they live in a gray twilight that knows not victory nor defeat."
Theodore Roosevelt

[Nicole]

Losing streaks are inevitable.

Be humble when your winning and stay postive when your losing.

A winning attitude is never an option in this game – it is an absolute necessity. Your ability to handle losing streaks is most definitely one of the things that will determine your degree of success.

Whenever I'm having one of those longer than usual losing streaks I take a breather. I use this time to visit the relatives, catch up on reading, projects or a movie, exercise more, or go fishing. I'll jump back into the game feeling satisfied and ready to start winning again.

Practice discipline and money-management, the winning streaks will eventually outnumber the losing streaks, and you'll be rewarded with a nice profit.

[Cesario!]

thats why this quote is right by me all the time.
"Far better is it to dare mighty things, to win glorius triumphs, even though checkered by failure... than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy nor suffer much, because they live in a gray twilight that knows not victory nor defeat."
Theodore Roosevelt

Thanks for all the good advice. BTW, I simply love this quote.

[twindouble]

I couldn't find that thread posted a while back on losing streaks so I'll give my point of view again in a little more depth.


First how anyone handles losing is pretty much the heart and sole of the individual so only you know who you are. We can bring out the couch and cover your life's experiences and just maybe set you on the right track but that won't happen here. I've known gamblers that you couldn't beat good advice into them regardless of how hard anyone tried. Like little puppies it's best to start the training early, it's rare when you can teach old dogs new tricks but does happen.

We can't talk just in terms of a "losing streak" because the reasons take many forms. Some of those reasons are beyond your control and it's important to recognize that right off. Anger, frustration and anxiety are your enemies.

What good handicappers have going for them is they do have winning streaks and they know very well they don't last forever and can come and go when least expected because of the changing conditions that racing offers up. Here again understanding that adds to their ability to handle the worst and best that can happen. The don't panic and change what works.

I don't agree with the idea of taking a vacation from racing when your on a losing streak, when it comes to following the horses leaving a gap that puts you in the dark as to what's going on in most cases adds to the pain, unless you just get lucky or the conditions just shifted in your favor, that would have happened anyway. Tough call to say it was the vacation but there's no way anyone should toss out what they have seen, (trips) or made note of. ESP those horses that on your watch list, taking a vacation and missing those opportunities don't help.

This statement is hard to swallow for most people, I've had losing streaks where I did some dam good handicapping but it just wasn't meant to be. When that happens my confidence is still high and for me that's no time to back off because I know what happened had nothing to do with my handicapping or how I wagered. When your consistently in the hunt, you'll without a doubt break a losing streak sooner rather than later.


T.D.

[Niko]

What happens when your losing streak hits 3 months, 6 months?? I've had it happen to me once in the past and it's happened again now. You look at past results, take a little time off, do a little research-- come back and it's still going on. At that point is it because somethings changed in the game you don't understand, you're going through one of those low probability periods that will eventually go away, you're not mentally there because of things going on in your personal life or your hanging on to emotional baggage. Try to identify this first and then you'll know what plan of action to take.

A couple losing days, a month or two can all be part of the game and are certainly realistic for the majority of handicappers. When it's more than a couple months that's when it gets really hard.

No I don't have a good answer. Just like people in the stock markets and horseracing. Sometimes people just stop winning....I don't think it will happen to me because I've always bounced back but at this point I don't really know.

One thing I do know is the more you have going on in your life personally...new job and new kid etc the harder it can be and that can be the best time to take some time off if you're not doing this for a living.

It's all good advice on this board but it sure ain't easy...There's people I've know that have won in the past and stopped winning...some bounce back some don't.

You hear mostly only good and winning long-term stories on this board. You can start thinking everyone's making money all the time. Some can, but it's good to look at the other side of the coin so you can try to prepare yourself mentally when a losing streak does happen to you.

[twindouble]

What happens when your losing streak hits 3 months, 6 months?? Quote; Niko.

Like I said, losing streaks take different forms, if your a good handicapper there's no way in hell you'll lose every race for 6 Months or not make a good score here and there, the most important thing is can your bankroll handle what loses you did sustain for that 6 Months. Sure I've gone that long not being in the black but that don't mean I went broke or thought I'd have to quit.

You hear mostly only good and winning long-term stories on this board. You can start thinking everyone's making money all the time. Some can, but it's good to look at the other side of the coin so you can try to prepare yourself mentally when a losing streak does happen to you. Quote; Niko.

Long term is the only way to measure your success playing the horses, hell I've seen guys make tons of money in a week or two and it's all gone shortly after. :bang: How you handle your success is just as important as how you handle your losing streaks or any lose for that matter.

T.D

[JackS]

One good week at the races can easily finance the sure to come losing streak. I think the problem many have is the feeling of invincibility during the good times and then have to suffer the realities of losing. Many of these handicappers doubled or trippled their bet size on the assumption they could not lose. The profits are gone in a blink and now the hole gets deeper. If they increased the initial size of their bets after winning, they probably didn't decrease their bet size during the losing streak. It is likely that many of these players get so far behind that there is little chance of a total recoup let alone a profit. If anyone feels he/she must take advantage of the good times and up the bet size, I'd suggest a comfortable 10% or so. Also a decrease of maybe 20% when things aren't going so good. Doing this adds levity and maintains sanity.
We gain much joy and satisfaction when we win and probably relish the satisfaction of beating "The Game" as much as we do the money.
Money is the way we keep score. If after a year at the races we broke exactly even, didn't we accomplish something that very few do? If we made a profit , many would tell us we accomplished the impossible.
Bottom line, if we stay reasonable at the races we can enjoy both winning and losing days. There's always tomorrow.

[valueguy]

I find i run into losing streaks when i start to chase the higher odds horses in a race . The lower the odds the more winners you are going to have. Some
statistics i have seen,indicate that a 5-1 horse is an underlay 9 out of 10 times .A 10-1 horse is an underlay 19 out of 20 times etc. That being said
i have caught a few 50-1 horses that were huge overlays. It all boils down to
finding value in a race, if there is any, it is usually in one of the top 3 horses.
Of course you will find value in higher odds horses but it won,t be on wishful thinking but on solid info or a certain pattern. Maybe one such bet every couple of race cards. ( Exoctic betting is another kettle of fish)
FWIW;)

[hurrikane]

you have to quantify your handicapping

what is your typical win percentage. With that number you can reasonably predict what your longest losing streak will be.
for me its around 24 in a row. Just went there last week. IT can also be losing 24 in a row, winning one race and losing another 24.
I do datamining so I can be that precise. Not everyone can.

The thing is I know it's going to happen. Even when I'm up big time I know somehwere down the line I'm going to sit through a long run out. There is nothing at any time that I can do about it. It IS going to happen. I dont' know when it will start or when it will end. What I do know is that the longest runout will be in the 24 range.

typically what people do in these situations is start trying to fix things when, in fact, nothing is broken. So you change something. You don't know if what you changed is good or bad. You just changed something for the sake of changing something. If this is you you need to do 2 things

1. get out of racing and likely out of any type of speculation.
2. Get a job with the federal government.

Good luck to you

[Cesario!]

. If this is you you need to do 2 things

1. get out of racing and likely out of any type of speculation.
2. Get a job with the federal government.

Good luck to you

That just cracked me up! :D

BTW, what is "datamining?"

[Niko]

Excellent posts Jack and Hurricane. Made all of those mistakes a few years ago and learned. Others should read both your posts carefully....

It's good to take advantage of hot streaks and slightly increase your betting. Once you start changing things to include a couple winners you have no idea how many losers that would include also....unless you can a query.

Good point for longhshot players Valueguy. Sometimes you hit a few longshots and you start chasing them instead of letting them come to you. You start bending the rules, seeing things that aren't there....

[Jeff P]

The following thread from last summer has a few posts that might have some relevance here:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=21315&page=1

-jp

.

[JustRalph]

I was going to mention this again.......but thankfully Jeff found the thread.....Now I can repeat myself with just a link!



http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=203944&postcount=9

[Indulto]

Originally posted by JackS:

One good week at the races can easily finance the sure to come losing streak.JS,
One good week at the races can easily finance the CURE to SOME losing streak.

Seriously, I enjoyed your post and my dyslexic impulse occurred on the second reading.

TD,
You must be an ironman to maintain the discipline in the face of a losing streak, but I think you’re right. It seems that whenever I’ve been really down after suffering yet another near-miss of a large score, I also missed a good opportunity I wouldn’t have in a better frame of mind.

46,
The Teddy Roosevelt quote has also been a source of inspiration for me since it was emphasized by my 8th grade world history teacher.


I believe it was the Beatles that sang “I get by with a little help from my friends”. I finally realized that I seldom won playing by (or with) myself. As in marriage, good racetrack partners are hard to find, but playing horses as a collective activity and winning sure beats whatever was previously in second place.

[twindouble]

TD,
You must be an ironman to maintain the discipline in the face of a losing streak, but I think you’re right. It seems that whenever I’ve been really down after suffering yet another near-miss of a large score, I also missed a good opportunity I wouldn’t have in a better frame of mind. Quote; Indulto.


No I don't think it's any great feat. To me it's just common sense to make an effort to understand what's involved and put it in it's proper perspective. We call that handicapping. :) Besides, I like who I am and there's enough things in this life that beat you up, no need to do it to yourself. :cool:

T.D.

[Light]

Winning and losing are Yin and Yang. Cannot have one without the other.

[Overlay]

you have to quantify your handicapping

Jeff P also made this point in one of the previous threads. For me, quantification and compartmentalization are the keys. Only to the degree that your handicapping style is replicable from race to race can you go back and trace what portion of your analysis is flawed. Then, if you find no errors in your basic approach or assumptions, it provides the confidence needed to ride out the streak and wait for the upturn that will follow.

[Lefty]

I'm a longshot player so I know about losing streaks. When I lose a race I just write bad words in my notebook and go on to my next play.

[Murph]

WOW, Ralph :mad:

So, you were shot out of the win saddle twice AND you played three
crackers all in one day ?!? I would have wept. You were brave to
carry on with confidence. I may not have bet for months if that had
been me. You proved it was a fluke.


To me it's just common sense to make an effort to understand what's involved and put it in it's proper perspective. We call that handicapping. :) Besides, I like who I am and there's enough things in this life that beat you up, no need to do it to yourself. :cool:

T.D.


This is a life's lesson that took me way to long to learn. Successful handicappers have to look outside themselves for answers to the race in question today. Including the wacky results.

On the inside you must already be certain you are doing the right thing and proceeding in your own best interest. It can be tuff.

Murph

[twindouble]

WOW, Ralph :mad:

So, you were shot out of the win saddle twice AND you played three
crackers all in one day ?!? I would have wept. You were brave to
carry on with confidence. I may not have bet for months if that had
been me. You proved it was a fluke.



This is a life's lesson that took me way to long to learn. Successful handicappers have to look outside themselves for answers to the race in question today. Including the wacky results.

On the inside you must already be certain you are doing the right thing and proceeding in your own best interest. It can be tuff.

Murph



Quote:

To me it's just common sense to make an effort to understand what's involved and put it in it's proper perspective. We call that handicapping. :) Besides, I like who I am and there's enough things in this life that beat you up, no need to do it to yourself. :cool:

T.D.



What I failed to mention is the pure enjoyment that's wrapped around my thinking, that makes it much easier to sustain that attitude over the long haul. I never looked at racing as a do or die venture but many players I've encountered get trapped in that kind of thinking to some degree or a greater one. In most cases it's a ticket to the poor house.

T.D.

[Light]

Winning and losing are Yin and Yang. Cannot have one without the other.

I'll eloborate. According to Yin Yang philosophy,the seeds of each side has its seeds in the other and depending on conditions will give birth to the other. "The darkest hour is just before the dawn" is an example. My most profitable and successful approaches to handicapping have come from losing. Losing is a great teacher. Don't ignore it. You don't really learn much when you're just having a great time and winning. Thus the seeds for losing again. You can't stop the cycles but the more awareness you have of where you're at,the more control you have over the cycles.

[46zilzal]

great another with Buddhist and Taoist thought. That will save you everytime.

[Light]

46

Your Buddhistic post was my inspiration to post about YIN YANG. Didn't think anyone here really looked at losing at the track beyond conventional reasoning.

[MANOWAR]

I'm a longshot player, and I've been going through a long losing streak for past few months now. I don't play every race on a card, I usually play 3 horses a day. After losing a good amount of money during the last few months, I now find myself talking myself out of betting almost every horse that I want to bet. It's really wrecking havoc with my mind. I've taken a couple of days off from time to time, but that didn't seem to help me out any. I'm just finding it difficult to stay positive, and stay focused on the job at hand.

[46zilzal]

I'm a longshot player, and I've been going through a long losing streak for past few months now. I don't play every race on a card, I usually play 3 horses a day. After losing a good amount of money during the last few months, I now find myself talking myself out of betting almost every horse that I want to bet. It's really wrecking havoc with my mind. I've taken a couple of days off from time to time, but that didn't seem to help me out any. I'm just finding it difficult to stay positive, and stay focused on the job at hand.
go back and see what CHANGED. The track, your method, your wagering. Often at the beginning of a meeting this is a problem

[Lefty]

longshots by their very nature are conducive to long losing streaks. I just got off a 30 race one myself and today I hit 3 moderate ones. Just go back and look at all those lovely prices in your records, find your clusters and know they will occur again. If your records prove you have a winning method, stay with it.

[Light]

ManoWar

Just remember that it can allways be worse and that you're not alone. A good friend of mine has lost 180K in the last 6 months and I believe about $1 million in the last 10 years.

[MANOWAR]

The method that I use has worked in the past at most tracks, and my records reflect a positive ROI. I've only experienced a losing streak as long as a month at a time with the method I'm using, not 3 months in a row. Like I said before, its gotten to the point that I'm talking myself out of betting horses that I want to bet. I wanted to bet a longshot at Calder who won its race on Friday, but I talked myself out of betting it. This is what a long losing streak can do to a person. It can really screw up your mind. I have to try and figure out how to get out of this funk I'm in before I totally lose it.

[RaceIsClosed]

I think the biggest problem with my handicapping is that I haven't accepted losing as part of it. Emotionally, I absolutely hate losing...and nothing is worse than a day with strings of losses. I know that it's part of the game, but I feel like a hitter who wants to get a hit every time up. It messes with my confidence -- I don't handicap as "loosely" when I'm losing, and I reduce my bets because I get scared.

I intellectually KNOW that I have to get over it in order to have successful long-time profits. And I absolutely love this game -- and I think my handicapping/betting/thinking is good enough to be succesful. I do worry that my personality (emotional, moods moving with highs and lows) may not be cut up for the gambling lifestyle.

Does anyone who has been there have any advice?

No, because no matter who you are, you can never be sure if losing is just a short term aberration or a sign you've lost your edge. Advocates of "discipline" presume you have an advantge and will tell you to keep playing without panic, yet if you have no edge then that's the surest way to go broke.

Most pros I know accumulate money very reliably, and don't even have to ask questions like that, but instead worry about how much they can get down without killing their price.

[fastCow]

try not to lose twice in a row.

[fastCow]

raceIsClosed gets to the point: do you really have an edge?

[MANOWAR]

I didn't lose my edge, I just misplaced it. Once I find it again, I'll be alright.

[MONEY]

We all like hitting long shots. But playing long shots can lead to long losing streaks, if you fail to identify which races are more likely to produce long shot winners. My favorite long shot races are Maiden races with 10 or more starters. I find that in these type of races I can play more than one horse to win and still end up ahead even with a low hit rate. A good way to end a losing streak is to handicap only the 4 morning line favorites in races with 10 or less horses. Then set what your acceptable odds are for each horse and bet accordingly. Most of the horses you hit doing this will be in the 6/1 to 8/1 range, but if you are a fair handicapper your losing streak will end and you will make make some money. Sometimes these horses go off at long shot odds. I can remember catching a winner at 55/1 that was only 9/2 on the morning line. Just had to get my two cents in. Now back to watching Sponge Bob.
Good Luck

[Lefty]

Man, what's your win pctg over the last 1000 races?

[Lefty]

raceIsClosed gets to the point: do you really have an edge?
Only a player's personal records can tell him that.

[oddswizard]

This website has provided you with much needed information. Here is some additional advice.
To stop losing there are several things you might want to consider. First, understand the conditions of each race. A 6F sprint race cannot be handicapped like a mile race etc. Every race condition (distance, turf, Allow, Stakes etc.) must be handicapped using a method that predicts a high percentage of winners. This is a good homework lesson. In order to become a winner I recommend betting the same total amount on each race. $2.00 is fine if you are a beginner.
Once you can show a net profit on flat bets it will be time to consider betting exotics. If you are a win bettor you will become frustrated with the low net ROI in the long run. In order to show a long term profit you must be able to crush the races, perhaps using a parlay win program.

Since I hate losing I gave up win betting only. So I developed a handicapping formula that wins 70% of the races. I went to a 3 horse dutch formula that gives me a lot of winners. Then I implemented a wagering formula to take advantage ot these winners. Now I have a win & exacta formula that shows long term profits. I searched everywhere for a winning money management formula. I set my goal for an average profit of 50% daily. I spent 2 years honing the formula by starting from scratch. The secret of the formula is to learn how to pass non profitable races. This means I must have odds of 7-2 or more on win bets and $15.00 minimum on $1.00 exactas. Learning how to pass races has become an art form for me. Unless I get a 50% return on any bet I am out of the race. Here is an example: I am now wagering a total of $150.00 per race broken down to $50.00 per horse. My goal is to earn over $200.00 per day. Last week I played 2 tracks (California). I had to pass 12 races in a row due to the low odds. On the next race I won over $500.00 & quit for the day. I made my daily profit goal. I won almost every race but had to pass due to the odds. The key to stop losing is to pass races. I used to be upset when I passed races. Now I smile to myself because I know that when I pass races I am getting closer to winning. My advice is to learn how to handicap each race condition until you show a net profit. The worry about exotics and money management. Welcome to the exciting world of horseracing!

[Dave Schwartz]

OddsWizard,

I have been following this thread peridoically and, IMHO, your advice is so dead-on that it could be labelled the paradigm for becoming a winning player.

I don't mean your specific approach - that is up to the individual. Some do it with longshots, some with short-to-medium prices. Personally, I have no problem making money with low-priced plays... what I mean is the fact that you said a mouthful when you said:

... So I developed a handicapping formula...

What I took from this is that you solidified your handicapping approach so that it was stable and went to work figuring out how to exploit that approach for profit.


Thanks for a great post.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[spilparc]

This website has provided you with much needed information. Here is some additional advice.
To stop losing there are several things you might want to consider. First, understand the conditions of each race. A 6F sprint race cannot be handicapped like a mile race etc. Every race condition (distance, turf, Allow, Stakes etc.) must be handicapped using a method that predicts a high percentage of winners. This is a good homework lesson. In order to become a winner I recommend betting the same total amount on each race. $2.00 is fine if you are a beginner.
Once you can show a net profit on flat bets it will be time to consider betting exotics. If you are a win bettor you will become frustrated with the low net ROI in the long run. In order to show a long term profit you must be able to crush the races, perhaps using a parlay win program.

Since I hate losing I gave up win betting only. So I developed a handicapping formula that wins 70% of the races. I went to a 3 horse dutch formula that gives me a lot of winners. Then I implemented a wagering formula to take advantage ot these winners. Now I have a win & exacta formula that shows long term profits. I searched everywhere for a winning money management formula. I set my goal for an average profit of 50% daily. I spent 2 years honing the formula by starting from scratch. The secret of the formula is to learn how to pass non profitable races. This means I must have odds of 7-2 or more on win bets and $15.00 minimum on $1.00 exactas. Learning how to pass races has become an art form for me. Unless I get a 50% return on any bet I am out of the race. Here is an example: I am now wagering a total of $150.00 per race broken down to $50.00 per horse. My goal is to earn over $200.00 per day. Last week I played 2 tracks (California). I had to pass 12 races in a row due to the low odds. On the next race I won over $500.00 & quit for the day. I made my daily profit goal. I won almost every race but had to pass due to the odds. The key to stop losing is to pass races. I used to be upset when I passed races. Now I smile to myself because I know that when I pass races I am getting closer to winning. My advice is to learn how to handicap each race condition until you show a net profit. The worry about exotics and money management. Welcome to the exciting world of horseracing!

This is a great post and I agree with all of it except for the following:

I had to pass 12 races in a row due to the low odds. On the next race I won over $500.00 & quit for the day. I made my daily profit goal.

Quitting when you are winning makes no sense. Quitting when you are losing does, because you might be off your game, thinking poorly, making mistakes, upset etc. But if you quit when you are winning just because you hit some arbitrary goal, in my opinion, you are costing yourself too much money in profit.

Every race should be thought of as a positive or negative expectation event. By quitting just because you have acheived a certain monetary stop/win goal you could be costing yourself much, much more in profit.

Of course there are times when you should quit a winner. If you didn't quit a winner often enough you would never end up winning. But you shouldn't quit because you reached some certain number. If you're tired, or distraced, lost your concentration or have started to get sloppy, yes those are all reasons to quit.

If you keep playing after you have reached your daily goal it is very possible that you could give some money back and then fall below that daily goal, but isn't that also possible when you resume the game again tomorrow--and the next day--and the next? After all, isn't it all one great big game?

To paraphrase a famous quote: "If you can't play when you're winning--when can you play?"

[MANOWAR]

I pass races left and right, and I only bet horses that go off at 12-1 and higher using my method, which by the way works well with both sprint/route dirt races, and sprint/route turf races. If the odds are high enough, say 18-1 and higher, I'll bet win/place otherwise just a win bet. There are times when I might not have any horses to bet for a couple of days in a row because either there aren't any horses to bet, or the horses that I want to bet fall below my 12-1 minimum odds requirement before post time. Monday I might have 2 or 3 plays, and then I'll have no plays on Tuesday and Wednesday. I can lose it sometimes when this happens, because if those 2 or 3 horses tank then I'm screwed until Thursday. This has happend before that I've gone a couple of days in a row with no horses to bet, and it isn't any fun to go down to the track and just sit there for 4 hours just to watch races. Honestly, I need a new method of play. No question about it.

[spilparc]

I pass races left and right, and I only bet horses that go off at 12-1 and higher using my method, which by the way works well with both sprint/route dirt races, and sprint/route turf races. If the odds are high enough, say 18-1 and higher, I'll bet win/place otherwise just a win bet. There are times when I might not have any horses to bet for a couple of days in a row because either there aren't any horses to bet, or the horses that I want to bet fall below my 12-1 minimum odds requirement before post time. Monday I might have 2 or 3 plays, and then I'll have no plays on Tuesday and Wednesday. I can lose it sometimes when this happens, because if those 2 or 3 horses tank then I'm screwed until Thursday. This has happend before that I've gone a couple of days in a row with no horses to bet, and it isn't any fun to go down to the track and just sit there for 4 hours just to watch races. Honestly, I need a new method of play. No question about it.

I think if you lowered your 12 to 1 odds requirement to 7 to 1 you would do just fine.

[MANOWAR]

You're probably right about lowering my minimum odds requirement down to 7-1, but my records show that I've only made a profit when a horse's odds were 12-1 and higher. I took a beating with the method I'm using when I bet horses whose odds were under 12-1. I really need to come up with a new method of play where I don't have to depend on these high odds horses to make a profit.

[Sailwolf]

This is a great post and I agree with all of it except for the following:



Quitting when you are winning makes no sense. Quitting when you are losing does, because you might be off your game, thinking poorly, making mistakes, upset etc. But if you quit when you are winning just because you hit some arbitrary goal, in my opinion, you are costing yourself too much money in profit.

Every race should be thought of as a positive or negative expectation event. By quitting just because you have acheived a certain monetary stop/win goal you could be costing yourself much, much more in profit.

Of course there are times when you should quit a winner. If you didn't quit a winner often enough you would never end up winning. But you shouldn't quit because you reached some certain number. If you're tired, or distraced, lost your concentration or have started to get sloppy, yes those are all reasons to quit.

If you keep playing after you have reached your daily goal it is very possible that you could give some money back and then fall below that daily goal, but isn't that also possible when you resume the game again tomorrow--and the next day--and the next? After all, isn't it all one great big game?

To paraphrase a famous quote: "If you can't play when you're winning--when can you play?"


Barry Meadow would certainly agree with the statement of every race is seperate and if you won or lost the last race is immaterial to the present race. How do know if on the day you reach your profit goal, if you continue, you would have doubled your goal?:jump:

[Sailwolf]

Read any books by Mark Cramer for another outlook on racing.

One interesting book is Value Handicapping (City Miner Books):ThmbUp:

[Dave Schwartz]

Personally, I do not lose well. I find the answer to losing is more plays rather than less.

With a high volume of plays, most days are winners and almost all weeks.

Almost every race has public mistakes that can be exploited. Often you have to go down below your 3rd or 4th pick to find the big profit plays which hurts your consistency. With a high volume of such plays, however, the consistency comes back.

Another option is to give back some of the profit on the higher-priced plays by adding a hedge on one or more low-priced (but not horrible bet) plays.


At HorseStreet we are doing a 3-lesson workshop on wagering. I would invite some of the attendees from that workshop series to chime in here if they wish. I think their fdeedback might be of value to you guys.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[JackS]

Ithink you have to come to some reasonable terms with very short priced horses. I am very singled minded in my constant attempt to "try" and beat them unless they absolutly appear they can't be beat. This statement is in itself is a misnomer since these types are beaten on a rather regular basis.
Now you have to come to terms with *"regular basis". Is it 40% or 50% or perhaps even 60%?. I use the 50% as a guideline despite odds lower than 1-1 which can make overlays very easy to see in the exoctics. In short fields, this can also be problematic in that anything played underneath in an Exacta (and by extention ) Trifecta can still be underlayed. In these cases, I would probably start a P3 or P4. This bet can also be somewhat blind unless you can distinguish the beatability of at least one of the two or three favorites in the next 2-3 races. Still this is prefferable to me than taking a known underlay and allows me to play into a few of these short price horses and often have live tickets going in upcoming races.

[Dave Schwartz]

I believe your question is aimed at me.

I cannot answer what percentage of short priced horses are "playable" because I actually play every race. (Well, okay... I actually skip a race or two per week.)

Each race is different and must be exploited differently.

For example... A race may have contenders like this:


LS 01 (o:$PSR) Val=0) Bet Int=6 Min=+ 4:58:50
Prg Horse Cont Odds Prob $Net Opt% Fair Odds
1 SILVER THUNDER C 3/5 53.5 $1.71 -24.2 1
7 FAXAMILLION C 7/2 15.3 $1.37 -9.0 6
6 LIT DE BEURRE C 23 11.5 $5.54 7.7 8


Note that $2.00 is break even.

So, the 6 horse is an obvious good bet. But suppose I ask a different question. Suppose I asked, "Who, of my contenders is the worst bet?"

The answer would clearly be the 7. Therefore, I will dutch the 1 & the 6, allowing the profitability of the 6 to carry the 1.


4/14/06 LS 01 D 6.00fst 4U CL
Bet Odds Win Place Show Return
1 SILVER THUNDER $94 0.7 $3.40 $2.40 $2.10 159.80
6 LIT DE BEURRE $6 23.1
-----
BET= 100
RETURNED= 159.80
RESULT= 59.80




Another example:


LS 05 (o:$PSR) Val=0) Bet Int=9 Min=+ 3:12:55
Prg Horse Cont Odds Prob $Net Opt% Fair Odds
4 I'M ALL ATTITUDE C 5/2 33.7 $2.36 7.2 2
2 BORDERLINE FELONY C 5 16.3 $1.95 -0.5 6
7 GHETTO FREE C 16 6.7 $2.27 0.8 14
1 HUBS GHOST C 22 6.7 $3.07 2.4 14


In this case all 4 horses are playable and can be dutch for consistent profits.


4/14/06 LS 05 D 6.00fst 3U MD
Bet Odds Win Place Show Return
1 HUBS GHOST $7 22.6
2 BORDERLINE FELONY $30 5.2
4 I'M ALL ATTITUDE $52 2.6 $7.20 $3.00 $2.60 187.20
7 GHETTO FREE $11 16.9
-----
BET= 100
RETURNED= 187.20
RESULT= 87.20




Let me show you the entire field:


LS 05 (o:$PSR) Val=0) Bet Int=9 Min=+ 3:14:15
Prg Horse Cont Odds Prob $Net Opt% Fair Odds
4 I'M ALL ATTITUDE C 5/2 33.7 $2.36 7.2 2
5 SILVER I. D. C 9/5 20.1 $1.13 -24.2 4
2 BORDERLINE FELONY C 5 16.3 $1.95 -0.5 6
9 FOLDEM C 5 7.6 $0.92 -10.8 13
7 GHETTO FREE C 16 6.7 $2.27 0.8 14
1 HUBS GHOST C 22 6.7 $3.07 2.4 14
8 LEESTOWN BELL C 6 6.5 $0.92 -9.0 15
10 QUINTANA ROO C 30 2.1 $1.31 -1.2 50
3 SPEEDY MINISTER C 40 0.3 $0.21 -2.2 99


What fueled the profit here was that the 9/5 favorite was a non-contender, but he was also a bad bet.



These are just a couple of examples.

Every race is different but there are a handful of strategies I use that covers all but that rare race where the public's opinion is so in line with my probabilties that there are just no horrible bets to play against.


BTW, I have determined that an odds-on horse that scores $1.60+ will be flat-bet profitable in the long run.



Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[PaceAdvantage]

A dutch is a wonderful tool to deal with losing, in theory....

I just can't get over how difficult dutching must be in today's day and age.

On the one hand, dutching should be EASIER than ever, with access to up-to-the-minute pool info, and ways to get a bet down at the last second.

On the other hand, you routinely have horses whose odds read 9/5 when you place your bet, but drop to even money as they race down the backstretch. That kind of change could seriously impact your dutch bet. If the odds drop on more than one of your horses, forget it....your profit could easily turn into a loss, even if you hit.

You could have the best real time data feed in the world, and you're still going to get burned a number of times on odds droppers.....more so at the smaller tracks with smaller pools, but even the big tracks have significant changes after the bell rings.

Since Dave Schwartz hasn't met a race, or a track he doesn't like, I would love to get his input (once again) on this frustrating problem as it relates to dutch betting.

[Dave Schwartz]

A few years ago one of our professional users (Jack Burkholder) told me that he dutched 2-4 horses per race. I tried it and it made crazy in about 4 races because my wagers were always wrong.

Jack said that the changes seemed to work to his advantage in the long run.

I now see that he is right.


Think of it this way... if you are picking hot contenders and consistently throwing out the worst bets of those contenders the ones you bet should outperform those you don't bet.

Whether or not the outcome is a positive expectancy depends upon your ability to tell the worst bet of the bunch on a regular basis. Frankly, it is so much easier to tell who the bad bet is among your contenders than find a single profitable play among your contenders.


Oh, and one more thing... Nobody says you have to actually dutch. You just use the dutching to decide whether or not the race is playable. You can always bet the horses flat.

Most important thing? Get over the notion that you aren't good enough to find profitable bets among low-priced horses. They exist. And the lower the odds (on a favorite) the greater the liklihood that the horse will be under-estimated by the public simply because most of the experts (which includes the majority of players on this board) stop considering a horse when he goes below even money. I live for the profitable 3/5 horse.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[sjk]

I have always expected lots of losses along the way. I think trying for too much consistency can be very expensive insurance. I absolutely hate a losing month but I figure losing days or even weeks are part of the deal.

In Dave's example of dutching the 1 and 6 it is striking to me that the vast majority of the money is going on the underlaid horse. I'm sure his dutch bet is a good one but for my money the better one is to put all the money on the 6. I don't care if I have to watch him lose 12 times if I can expect to get my 23-1 on the 13th try.

In all likelihood I would be dutching Dave's horses in the exacta pool rather than in the win pool since it is quite likely that the 1-6 would be overlaid even though the 1 in the win pool is not.

[Lefty]

Dave, great post. I, like Sjk, and others have always played longshots, unable to make money on short prices, so your post tells me it cann be done. We never know if we're truly betting overlays at time of the bet since this is subjective. But after a few months of profits, then you know you must have been betting more overlays than underlays or the profits wouldn't be there; be they long, short or a mix.

[oddswizard]

In theory you are right. But in actual practice it makes more sense for me to quit when I have reached my daily goal. My actual results of more than one year of betting is that I earn 3 times more money by quitting when I reach my goal. This is based on a per track basis. So if my goal is $250.00 per day per track & I reach my goal for Northern California I will still play Southern California until I reach that goal. I ran these stats by a stock market guru and he agrees with me. "If you reach your daily goal-take the money & run" It works in the market and it works at the track!" If playing all the races works for you I say "Congrats!" All handicappers should know their strengths & weaknesses. I win by quitting when I accomplish my daily goal. You may be a better handicapper than I and therefore win more by playing all the races. So we are both winners! In my racing seminars I always ask the public "How many times have you gone to the races and won early & when the day was over you came out even or lost money?" Almost everyone raises their hands. This is why I started a daily profit goal.

[twindouble]

In theory you are right. But in actual practice it makes more sense for me to quit when I have reached my daily goal. My actual results of more than one year of betting is that I earn 3 times more money by quitting when I reach my goal. This is based on a per track basis. So if my goal is $250.00 per day per track & I reach my goal for Northern California I will still play Southern California until I reach that goal. I ran these stats by a stock market guru and he agrees with me. "If you reach your daily goal-take the money & run" It works in the market and it works at the track!" If playing all the races works for you I say "Congrats!" All handicappers should know their strengths & weaknesses. I win by quitting when I accomplish my daily goal. You may be a better handicapper than I and therefore win more by playing all the races. So we are both winners! In my racing seminars I always ask the public "How many times have you gone to the races and won early & when the day was over you came out even or lost money?" Almost everyone raises their hands. This is why I started a daily profit goal.

I've doing that for many years, the but I don't cap the winnings, I just cut out a profitable day depending on the score or scorse I make. When I get to the point where I can set aside the bankroll plus and still have money to invest, I don't go home or shut the computer off. ESP when I'm on and other races look just as good if not better. If I don't feel that way then I'll close the book. That don't mean at I don't give some back but I still go home a winner. I take a losing streak with a grain of salt, not that some races I lose aren't upsetting at the moment but I never carry that over to the next race or the next day when it comes to wagering or handicapping but I will talk about it.


T.D.

[Light]

There is some validity to both arguments of whether to continue to bet when your monetary goal is reached. The key is "do you get cocky after winning? Even if you think you don't it could be you don't know yourself as well as you think. Everyone has experienced the phenonmenon of a great score early and then an inexplicable inability to hit the side of a barn with our picks the rest of the day. That's because your subconscious is not turned off when you go to the track. So if your experience shows you lose heavily after winning,then ODDSWIZARD's point is correct.You should quit cause you have gone into anticlimactic mode via your subconscious as a reaction to reaching your goal. If your experience shows you are able to stay focused then SPILPARC is correct.This individualistic answer must come from experience,not conjecture.

[twindouble]

There is some validity to both arguments of whether to continue to bet when your monetary goal is reached. The key is "do you get cocky after winning? Even if you think you don't it could be you don't know yourself as well as you think. Everyone has experienced the phenonmenon of a great score early and then an inexplicable inability to hit the side of a barn with our picks the rest of the day. That's because your subconscious is not turned off when you go to the track. So if your experience shows you lose heavily after winning,then ODDSWIZARD's point is correct.You should quit cause you have gone into anticlimactic mode via your subconscious as a reaction to reaching your goal. If your experience shows you are able to stay focused then SPILPARC is correct.This individualistic answer must come from experience,not conjecture.

I've been to the track with guys that went with less than a hundred bucks in their pockets. Through out the day being 4 to 6 hundred up, I end up buying dinner and in one case a pack of smokes. I never go home broke, always have reserve money for emergences, food and beer. I would think leaving the track broke is a tough condition to deal with, it's to negitive for a gambler and it effects his thinking and his wagering.

T.D.

[spilparc]

In theory you are right. But in actual practice it makes more sense for me to quit when I have reached my daily goal. My actual results of more than one year of betting is that I earn 3 times more money by quitting when I reach my goal. This is based on a per track basis. So if my goal is $250.00 per day per track & I reach my goal for Northern California I will still play Southern California until I reach that goal. I ran these stats by a stock market guru and he agrees with me. &quot;If you reach your daily goal-take the money & run&quot; It works in the market and it works at the track!&quot; If playing all the races works for you I say &quot;Congrats!&quot; All handicappers should know their strengths & weaknesses. I win by quitting when I accomplish my daily goal. You may be a better handicapper than I and therefore win more by playing all the races. So we are both winners! In my racing seminars I always ask the public &quot;How many times have you gone to the races and won early & when the day was over you came out even or lost money?&quot; Almost everyone raises their hands. This is why I started a daily profit goal.

If this works for you fine, but it is mostly nonsense.

The reason most people raise their hands in your seminars, I dare say, is because most of them are losers in the first place playing a negative expectation game. It would not matter when they quit, because over time they would end up losing anyway.

It is impossible to win through money management. That is by qutting at a certain time or not quitting at a certain time. You should certainly set a limit on your losses, because there is always the possibility that you are playing badly, but not on your wins. Knowing how to construct your wagers and betting within your bankroll is a completely different kind of management and 100% viable. Using money management to decide when to quit winner is not.

Let's say I set a daily goal of $100 at the craps table. Can I beat the game doing things this way? Of course not. Craps is a negative expectation game and I should end up losing the sum of my expectations--namely about 1.41% of every dollar wagered over time.

Let's say a horse race comes up where I have a positive expectation because there are several nice overlays in the race. I figure to lose the bet, say 85% of the time and make a nice score the other 15%. However I'm up $251 for the day--my daily goal. I should pass this bet?

Now let's say I'm up $246 for the day. $4 shy of my daily goal (or $7, $10, $15, etc.). I should now make this bet?

You can't convince me your way of doing things is correct. If I'm playing poker in a Texas Hold'em game, and I'm up $253 (my daily goal), but I still have a couple of free hands until my blinds. Are you saying if in the next hand or two I get pocket aces or kings I should throw them away???

Let's say in the ninth race there is a horse running who is the only speed, in great shape, and looks very good, and should be 4-5, but is hovering around 5/2 because the public is betting a class dropper who I don't like at all. I've been waiting all day for this race. However, I've reached my daily goal, so now this race becomes a pass???

I really can't think of too many times in my life where I have ever set a predetermined goal ahead of time. There have been many, many times where I have shot up ahead and suddenly felt like quitting. I was pleased with the score, it was a nice amount, I probably lost my concentration, got happy, and wanted to go to dinner. I could have been a big mistake, but I took the money and ran. I had no idea ahead of time what that amount would be or that I would even get that lucky and win. It just happened and I felt like quitting. I've also kept on playing in the same exact situation. There have also been times when I've been losing, got a little lucky and found myself close to or above even--and quit. I just didn't feel like playing anymore. Getting even did that. Fine. These are not contradictions.

It makes no sense to stay at the track and keep playing if I am $100 shy of goal, but to leave and go home if I have reached my goal. But it does make sense to quit if I no longer feel like playing--win or lose.

Very often when gambling our attitude changes and this becomes a legitimate reason to quit. When you reach your daily goal I'm sure your attitude changes and you want to quit. In the past you have slid back down the hill after reaching your daily goal because you didn't quit. However, you will continue to play at a different track. What difference does it make? Your reasons are psychological--not logical.

By the way, I don't think I would be taking any advice from said stock market guru.

[keilan]

Spilparc – nice post and welcome to the board :)

[rrbauer]

Spilparc – nice post and welcome to the board :)

Ditto on both counts!

[Light]

spilparc

The majority of gamblers don't play with this kind of structural goal. OW is only the second guy here who I've read that advocates this goal orientated strategy. The other has the same philosophy about when to quit. I would think when to quit would have to be part of a goal orientated strategy. For freestyle players like most of us,that is not an issue.

[RaceIsClosed]

spilparc

The majority of gamblers don't play with this kind of structural goal. OW is only the second guy here who I've read that advocates this goal orientated strategy. The other has the same philosophy about when to quit. I would think when to quit would have to be part of a goal orientated strategy. For freestyle players like most of us,that is not an issue.

I think of money-management "strategies" more as "rituals" in that they are useful for the bettor if he sticks to them (and they are sound, of course). At the end of the day, however, the key is finding horses who offer value, specifically a positive ROI if bet flat, or a better-than-average ROI if included in the exotice. Since Pinnacle offers 7 percent rebates to the masses, we only need an $0.93 to break even, or about $0.10 over the average.

Thus, the question confronting the horseplayer is simple: is this (each) bet profitable? If so, bet; if not, don't. You'll never know for sure how good you are at finding this value, but your bankroll should tell you pretty accurately over time. By the time you get good enough to be a pro -- the only type who really has to concern himself with this -- you'll be playing with winnings anyway.

[Hank]

Just an amen, NEVER NEVER put limits on your winnings.ALWAYS ALWAYs put limits on your losses.I mean this is like the GOLDEN rule #1 of smart betting.:ThmbUp:

[clue]

What difference does it make? Your reasons are psychological--not logical.


Speculation is primarily a psychological task.

[Dave Schwartz]

Personally, I like the idea of qutting when a goal is reached. However, I'd immediately begin on a new goal (as opposed to waiting for another day).


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

PS: And, yes, welcome to the board.

[clue]

I live for the profitable 3/5 horse.

Really?

You're saying these are profit generating for you or that they're the hedge part of profitable multi horse bets?


-clue

[Dave Schwartz]

There are profitable 3/5 plays and hedge plays at 3/5.

When the profitable ones come up I bet with great confidence.

Dave

[clue]

that's impressive.

thanks dave.


-clue

[cj]

There are profitable 3/5 plays and hedge plays at 3/5.

When the profitable ones come up I bet with great confidence.

Dave

$3 instead of 2? :lol:

[Dave Schwartz]

LOL - Yeah, that would be about it. Then I bet another buck split between the other 4 horses I like.

[hurrikane]

If this works for you fine, but it is mostly nonsense.

If it works for him why would it be nonsense?

I don't play this way typically. I usually generate spot plays, place the bets, go on about my day. But when I'm playing live or doing any type of 'gambling' I will play this way for a few reasons.

1. this isn't my bread and butter. It's entertainment. I don't bet thousands of dollars this way and I'm usually playing exotics. A completely differnet strategy than the day to day. Profitable, and you still keep records to know you strengths, but it is the cream topping, not the pie.

2. fatigue. Most people playing do not realize how mentally fatiguing this type of play is on them by the hour. And the longer you work it the more fatigued you are going to be later in the day. Anyone keep track of their results by number of hours playing. I am sure it will be depressed after a few hours.


OW's type of play is session play. Spac says you stay until the 9th race. What 9th race. Where I am you could play from noon until 1am the next day. Which 9th race are you talking about. When BEL 9th race ends do you stop? there are hundreds of races going into the nigth. OW says he stops his session when he reaches x number of profit. you say you never stop..that doesn't seem realistic to me unless you are doing something along the lines of spot play. find the plays, play them early and let them run from noon to 1am.

Welcome to the board and not razzing you, JMO

[karlskorner]

Like I have been saying for the past 4/5 years if you hit your goal for the day, quit, tomorrow is another day. You state if you hit your goal for the day, start another goal. What was the purpose of setting a goal for the day ? Do you take monies already won to fund this new goal ?

[Dave Schwartz]

Karl,

I wrote about it in an article titled, Off Center and the Losing Game some years ago. The article can be found:
http://www.horsestreet.com/freestuff/articles/OffCenter/index.html

The issue is we are playing a game that continues until we lose, which can have a negative impact on us. We must have a way to win a game.

Think about it... isn't that what you do? When you win for the day, you have one a game.

Granted that your reasons for doing what you do may be different.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Valuist]

There are profitable 3/5 plays and hedge plays at 3/5.

When the profitable ones come up I bet with great confidence.

Dave

There are very few horses that truly merit 3-5 odds. The best betting scenario of all is the overbet 3-5 or 1-2 shot since they create overlays all over the board.

[Dave Schwartz]

My experience is that there are more good bets at 3/5 than there are very bad bets at 3/5.

We use an A-B-C-D-F scale. I find that there are about 3 Fs and about 5 A/Bs per hundred races.

Understand that this is using our own odds-rendering engine and scale. Your mileage may vary. <G>


Dave

[Tom]

I agree with Karl on session play. Burn out is a factor you have to sconsider, as well staying sharp all day. What if you are playing at home? Do I stat on the east coast and move west until they are all closed and then download Austrailia?

Point being, what are everyone's goals for the day - play every race, every card? If you are only playing Belmont today, you are setting a personal goal - one track. Karl has a goal of X profit. Not everyone has the same goals in this game. At one of my first Sartin seminars, we were told to write down our "goal" in horse racing. Some goals were to mkae $20,000 this year, or to double my bankroll every X days. Mine was to make enough to pay for the racing forms.

Repeatedly hitting your daily goal goes a long way towards peace of mind and confidence. I assume Karl is playing in the long run, actually - his long run is a series of successful short term goals.

[Light]

This thread has made it clear that different players adapt different strategies to make a profit. Mentioned here are freestyle player,session player and spot player. Each requires it's own unique approach. And each of these categories are free to be manipulated by the user.The misunderstanding is not making the distinction between techniques. The question is which category and which manipulation of that category is most beneficial. Sorry Dave,somehow that 3/5 horse just doesn't bring a smile to my face.

[karlskorner]

I think the difference on this board is the "few and the many". The many are those who know regardless of what happens at the track their bills will be paid by the paycheck at the end of the week. The few are those who depend on an income from the track to pay the bills they find in the mail box when they come home.

[twindouble]

I agree with Karl on session play. Burn out is a factor you have to sconsider, as well staying sharp all day. What if you are playing at home? Do I stat on the east coast and move west until they are all closed and then download Austrailia?

Point being, what are everyone's goals for the day - play every race, every card? If you are only playing Belmont today, you are setting a personal goal - one track. Karl has a goal of X profit. Not everyone has the same goals in this game. At one of my first Sartin seminars, we were told to write down our "goal" in horse racing. Some goals were to mkae $20,000 this year, or to double my bankroll every X days. Mine was to make enough to pay for the racing forms.

Repeatedly hitting your daily goal goes a long way towards peace of mind and confidence. I assume Karl is playing in the long run, actually - his long run is a series of successful short term goals.

I do have a diplomatic side but this time I'll be a little blunt and to the point

I've encountered all kinds of gamblers, handicappers, wise guys, know it alls, right down to those that scrounge for winning ticket in the garbage. I haven't met one guy or girl that found a fixed system in handicapping or wagering to make money over the long term. In most cases the guy scrounging for tickets did better, didn't cost him anything to find one. Gamblers are going to do what every they are made of, for example I took in a partner that never made out playing the horses, as soon as we hit a good score what did he do? Well he spent a week in Vegas and he was broke when he got home. :bang: Others you can point out what's best to do and if it works you no longer exist, it becomes theirs. That don't bother me because there's something about this game that causes the ego's take over. Heck I gave a guy a key horse in the pick 4, he scores big, but when the story got back to me, I wasn't even mentioned.:D That's not my ego talking, you can't play this game for so many years and not contribute to others making money, if it's losing you will be mentioned. :D Yes, I laugh at it all. So when it gets right down to it, it's who you are that's going make the difference playing the horses, don't matter how many computers you break out, how many stats you have in hand or how much time you spend in the racing form. This is one game that requires more common sense, than some elaborate system. ( not that having tools don't help.) When you have common sense it's one thing you'll never run out of, regardless of how old you are.


T.D.

[spilparc]

OW's type of play is session play. Spac (Spec) says you stay until the 9th race. What 9th race. Where I am you could play from noon until 1am the next day. Which 9th race are you talking about. When BEL 9th race ends do you stop? there are hundreds of races going into the nigth. OW says he stops his session when he reaches x number of profit. you say you never stop..that doesn't seem realistic to me unless you are doing something along the lines of spot play. find the plays, play them early and let them run from noon to 1am.

Welcome to the board and not razzing you, JMO

Nowhere in my post did I say what you think I said. Please reread it. To paraphrase, here is what I did say: make positive expectation plays regardless of how you are doing.

When to quit is a personal matter, and there are many reasons for doing so. Such as: you are tired; you have to go somewhere, you are making mistakes, or you don't feel like playing anymore.

Now here is the most important thing I did say, and please think about it carefully. Setting an arbitrary amount of money as a goal and then quitting when you reach that goal whether it be after one race or fifty races won't guarantee success.

If doing that did guarantee success there would be a plethora of professional roulette players.

[Dave Schwartz]

Sorry Dave,somehow that 3/5 horse just doesn't bring a smile to my face.


... which is why it works for me. <G>


Dave

[karlskorner]

It's all the same at the end of the day when you total your daily wagering sheet, whether you won eight 3/5's or three 20/1's only counts when you know you made a profit for the day on a ten race card.

[Tom]

I dunno Dave, isn't it like kissing your sister?
How much can you realistically win on a 3-5 that makes it worth the huge bet? If if was a 1,000% overlay, is the reward worth the risk? Is it incrementally significant?

[Dave Schwartz]

Tom,

There is actually less "risk" involved in a profitable low-priced horse than in a profitable high-priced horse.

Just ask Barry Meadow. <G>


Dave

[Dave Schwartz]

It's all the same at the end of the day when you total your daily wagering sheet, whether you won eight 3/5's or three 20/1's only counts when you know you made a profit for the day on a ten race card.

All the same except for the consistency issue.


Dave

[sjk]

Tom,

There is actually less "risk" involved in a profitable low-priced horse than in a profitable high-priced horse.

Just ask Barry Meadow. <G>


Dave

A sound strategy takes the risk out of the game.

[Lefty]

Personally, I do not lose well. I find the answer to losing is more plays rather than less.

With a high volume of plays, most days are winners and almost all weeks.

Almost every race has public mistakes that can be exploited. Often you have to go down below your 3rd or 4th pick to find the big profit plays which hurts your consistency. With a high volume of such plays, however, the consistency comes back.

Another option is to give back some of the profit on the higher-priced plays by adding a hedge on one or more low-priced (but not horrible bet) plays.


At HorseStreet we are doing a 3-lesson workshop on wagering. I would invite some of the attendees from that workshop series to chime in here if they wish. I think their fdeedback might be of value to you guys.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Yeah, it'd be great if they would. How about it?

[Tom]

Just ask Barry Meadow. <G>

Dave

Has Barry been kissing my sister?:mad:

[RaceIsClosed]

Personally, I like the idea of qutting when a goal is reached. However, I'd immediately begin on a new goal (as opposed to waiting for another day).


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

PS: And, yes, welcome to the board.

The best way to lock in winnings is to just pay all expenses with them, buy whatever you need or want, blow some on a night out, and bet with whatever is left over.

[Dave Schwartz]

LOL - If Toys 'R Us did that they'd be out of business by January every year.

But, if it works for you...

[Red Knave]

At HorseStreet we are doing a 3-lesson workshop on wagering. I would invite some of the attendees from that workshop series to chime in here if they wish. I think their fdeedback might be of value to you guys.
We all say that wagering is as important as handicapping but, like complaining about the weather, no one does anything about it. ;)
What do you do if the race you worked out to the n'th degree winds up with your first choice at 4/5 and your second choice at 5/2? I used to look for "value" elsewhere. And usually lost because 4/5 horses and 5/2 horses win so much more often. Now, I intend to see if I can dutch or hedge my way to some profit. I know my numbers are good and my contender selection procedure is better than average so why shouldn't I exploit the advantage that I have? If I can comfortably toss out my other contender(s) here, I have an excellent chance to cash. My numbers may say that, taken together, this total wager is profitable. Why shouldn't I take a 20% return on the dutch or even 50% if the 5/2 horse wins and I hedge to break even on the 4/5 horse? I have the tools to decide and I'm learning how to do just that.
Stuff like this is illuminating for me.

[46zilzal]

interesting ploy in races like this which can, at times, make them profitable is called "riding on the coat tails." These types usually are in the money and if you use them with several other lives ones, these often fail as the winner and the exotic results (using them as keys) can make a profitable race out of an underlay race

[Tom]

46, good point.
An angle I like to use is one from Susan Sweeny - horse is 60% in the money at today's track. Good for finding place and show slot fillers.

[Lefty]

Dave, if you cut up, say a $100 in a 2 horse or 3 horse bet, what kind of profit is minimal to make the bet. 40% 50%?

[Dave Schwartz]

Lefty,

I am not sure what 40 or 50 percentage you are talking about. Please restate your question and I will try to answer.

If you are asking how does one dutch a 3-horse play, there are many ways to do it.

The downside to dutching is that (logically) it causes you to dilute your profitability.

The upside is that you gain consistency.

In other words, you are trading some profit in return for consistency.

If you have enough profit to give some up, then it can work very nicely.



Dave

[chickenhead]

I think he's wondering what your go/no go criteria is with regards to ROI...I've wondered that too, like you say you are balancing hit rate with ROI, how do you make the judgement call about balancing the bet, i.e. 2 horses give X hit with Y ROI, 3 horses give X+A hit rate with Y-B ROI..how do you determine which to go with? and what is your absolute min hit rate and/or roi required for any of these?

[Dave Schwartz]

Experience is the easy answer to that question.

Where you start is, ironically, based upon how you feel.

Look, obviously, the best way to play is based upon betting the more profitable horses... the more profitable the horse, the more you bet.

But there is a problem. Higher profitability horses generally come with lower hit rates. Often much lower.


By mixing low-probability/high profit horse(s) with one or two losing propositions changes the structure of the bet.

It is up to the individual to figure out how the percentages work for them. I assure you it can be done.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Lefty]

Dave, if you bet a C note and get bk $140 you made 40% profit. Before you make the bet, when yopu input the odds on 2 or 3 horses, most prgms give you a profit potential on every play. If you set that potential too low, you won't make any money. What profit potential are you looking for when you make the dutch bet?

[Dave Schwartz]

Ah, now I understand the question.

The answer depends upon the combined win probabilities of the horses we are playing in a given race.

For example, suppose you have a 4/5 shot that you have determined is a horrible bet. In that situation, a really smart bet is to simply dutch the rest of the field.

If I told you our actual threshhold for most races, you'd think I was nuts.


Dave

[Lefty]

Dave, I would never think you were nuts. But that's just me. LOL.

[Jack L]

Yes, Dave is nuts. But that has nothing to do with wagering. :D

I am participating in Dave’s Basics of Winning class, and at the invitation of Lefty and Dave here I’ll throw in my two cents. I have played the ponies for years, never very profitable. Some were good years, some not so good. Used almost all of the software programs etc… I have been successful lately with some exacta programs I work with, but have never had consistent success in the win column.



The first two sessions with Dave and the others in the group have been very beneficial. The experience level in the group ranges from brand new players to a couple of us who have been around a little while. In a nutshell we are looking at the art of wagering and winning as opposed to handicapping. I have been running tests using some of Dave’s suggestions since the first class. Using the same numbers, the same contenders and eliminations as I was using before to pick the winner - and applying a different wagering strategy and more precise betting criteria – well let’s just say the numbers are very impressive. I will continue to test and post the results on Dave’s bbs, but so far it is looking great.



As a side note Dave is doing this pro bono. See, that proves he’s nuts. Public kudos to Dave for his (not entirely) altruistic side. :)

[Lefty]

Thanks, Jack for responding and sharing.

[Dave Schwartz]

You can read about the class a little here:
http://www.horsestreet.com/ubb/Forum4/HTML/001412.html

The guys taking this class are, as a group, doing very well. Always there are some who do better than others and the experience is different for everyone but I doubt that anyone is not seeing improvement in their bottom line.

The payment for this class was that everyone was supposed to post about their experiences both here and on the HorseStreet board.



Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[FantasticDan]

BUMP

Just digging up some old threads re: losing streaks, this seemed like a good one to bump. I'm currently on what's likely the worst streak of my horse betting life, I honestly can't remember the last time I made a winning bet.

Doesn't matter what kind of bet it is, straight win, DDs, boxing 3 horses in an EXA, nothing's coming in. I tend to stay away from chalk, so I'm no stranger to streaks like this. But this one just feels worse than some others.

I even found myself making a few show bets on some trotters yesterday. Nuthin. :bang: :p

[BettinBilly]

Old thread but probably good for a bump.

We've all been there. More times than most will admit.

You mentioned Show bets. Like running home to Mamma, settling back to placing Shows seems like a safe haven to get some winnings going. But it's even more disheartening when 8 or 10 Shows don't come in either. ;)

[Stillriledup]

Good bump Dan.

The toughest thing to be able to do from a mental standpoint is to understand the PROCESS of how betting works. When i "lose" a bet, i think to myself that i didnt really lose the money and they are just holding it for me till i go and get it back. Its like i lent them the cash for a short time (interest free of course lol) but i'm going to get it back at some point.

[burnsy]

I'm a longshot player so I know about losing streaks. When I lose a race I just write bad words in my notebook and go on to my next play.

Short but a great one, can't let the past ruin your future. Or what we sing to the words of Bob Seger......Turn the page......or you will second guess everything.

[Dave Schwartz]

Wow! I remember this thread pretty well!

Great time for me to revisit this as the new racing season is here and I am trying to make the most of it.

I think the greater your true expectation of winning - meaning that you really believe you deserve and expect to win in the long run - I think the greater the expectation of success, the harder it is to take losers.

I mean, if you have won 3 days in a row, losing a little on day 4 can be handled easily. But follow that with a big loser on day 5 and your whole outlook changes.

As someone said early on in this thread, if you have a long history of winning then you just look back at that and your confidence should be just fine.

I have always looked for ways to mitigate the sting of losses, especially with hedging and mild chasing of the money. There is no free lunch, of course, and a negative expectation will always wind you up broke.

ALWAYS!

[Some_One]

I remember seeing an interview with Daniel Negreanu and in his early days, people used to ask him how he was doing on a particular day, instead of saying whatever the result was on that day, he looked at it by taking his longrun win rate (i.e. $50/hr) multiplied by the hours played. So if he played for 6 hours, he would tell people he was up $300. Whatever the actual result was just variance.

[therussmeister]

Good bump Dan.

The toughest thing to be able to do from a mental standpoint is to understand the PROCESS of how betting works. When i "lose" a bet, i think to myself that i didnt really lose the money and they are just holding it for me till i go and get it back. Its like i lent them the cash for a short time (interest free of course lol) but i'm going to get it back at some point.
I pay it forward. Instead of lending them money, they are lending me money when I win, which I pay back when I lose.

Here's how it works:

If I bet $10 and get $50 back, I never think of it as a $40 profit. Instead I calculate the "long term profit" based on my estimated probability of winning, (or you can just use your win percentage). If I figure the bet had a 28% chance of winning, this is the calculation:

$50-($10/.28)= $14.29 long term profit.

I never think of profits in any other way, except at the end of the year when doing taxes. If I am asked how I did today, or how much am I up on the year, that is the figure I give.

The best thing about this is when you lose, this number doesn't change, its like loses don't count at all. There is the chance you might become too loose with your bets if you feel like loses don't count, but I don't have that problem.

The second great thing about this is you can use it before placing a bet to determine what minimum price you need, which I do before every bet I make.

[Robert Goren]

A lot of garbage in this old thread.
First there is only way to stop a losing streak. Stop playing. Don't even think about racing for a month or two. Something has snuck into your betting that is killing you. You very little chance figuring it out while still betting even with good records. When you do come back, go back to the basics for a while. Forget the fancy stuff you were trying for a while. Then you be able to see more clearly.
Second, Don't bet a horse unless you think it is by far the most likely winner if you are playing the win pool. Insist on value on it for sure. The surest way to find your way to losing streak is to start betting horses you have a 10% chance of winning going off at 15/1. You have to have a huge bankroll to pull off those kinds of bets.
Third, You must hate losing. Tearing up a ticket has to eat at your very being to show a profit at this game. Don't let anyone else tell you different.
Fourth, Winning at this game is hard for most people. But once you really get in to black it is not that hard to stay there if you don't get greedy. Find out what plan of action you are comfortable with. Different strokes for different folks. You may not ever be comfortable betting more $ 20 at one track. That is ok. You may grow into being a large bettor and earn a living at it . That is ok. Just don't force it.
Fifth and last for now. Never ever stop thinking. Live this game(except when breaking a losing streak). I am not a big fan of books to improve your game. That doesn't mean you should not read them. You just should have figured it out for yourself before you read it. You learn more from some guys at simulcast center than you will in books. Go there, figure out who is actually winning and eaves drop. Make friends with them. A lot of them have a pocket book angle that has been working for 20 years. If go about it right, they take you under their wing and share. The guy who proudly claims to be visiting his money is very likely to be a very sharp winner and is being sociable and trying fit in with his friends. If you are starting out, the simulcast center is where you need to be. One more thing. Starting out, tape record your bets when you make them and then go back over them. You can put then a journal then if it suits you. Write stuff down while your betting is a distraction you don't need. You need to be thinking about what bets you are going to make next.

[BettinBilly]

....snip..... You learn more from some guys at simulcast center than you will in books. Go there, figure out who is actually winning and eaves drop.....snip....

I remember an Old Bettor (O.B.) at a track Clubhouse I used to frequent years ago. I can't even remember the guys name. He was a winning Horseplayer to be sure. He never said much, but his buddy was a chatterbox. His buddy would usually shout out, "Who do you like in the (next race)?". The O.B. would shout his pick(s) back. Then the buddy would ask, "Why?", and O.B. would give a synopsis why. It was beautiful. Easy to eaves drop without having to talk. You could write down the O.B.'s picks and notes, and compare them to what your Handicapping was. Not only a great learning experience but excellent for breaking a losing streak.

[thaskalos]

A lot of garbage in this old thread.
First there is only way to stop a losing streak. Stop playing. Don't even think about racing for a month or two. Something has snuck into your betting that is killing you. You very little chance figuring it out while still betting even with good records. When you do come back, go back to the basics for a while. Forget the fancy stuff you were trying for a while. Then you be able to see more clearly.
Second, Don't bet a horse unless you think it is by far the most likely winner if you are playing the win pool. Insist on value on it for sure. The surest way to find your way to losing streak is to start betting horses you have a 10% chance of winning going off at 15/1. You have to have a huge bankroll to pull off those kinds of bets.
Third, You must hate losing. Tearing up a ticket has to eat at your very being to show a profit at this game. Don't let anyone else tell you different.
Fourth, Winning at this game is hard for most people. But once you really get in to black it is not that hard to stay there if you don't get greedy. Find out what plan of action you are comfortable with. Different strokes for different folks. You may not ever be comfortable betting more $ 20 at one track. That is ok. You may grow into being a large bettor and earn a living at it . That is ok. Just don't force it.
Fifth and last for now. Never ever stop thinking. Live this game(except when breaking a losing streak). I am not a big fan of books to improve your game. That doesn't mean you should not read them. You just should have figured it out for yourself before you read it. You learn more from some guys at simulcast center than you will in books. Go there, figure out who is actually winning and eaves drop. Make friends with them. A lot of them have a pocket book angle that has been working for 20 years. If go about it right, they take you under their wing and share. The guy who proudly claims to be visiting his money is very likely to be a very sharp winner and is being sociable and trying fit in with his friends. If you are starting out, the simulcast center is where you need to be. One more thing. Starting out, tape record your bets when you make them and then go back over them. You can put then a journal then if it suits you. Write stuff down while your betting is a distraction you don't need. You need to be thinking about what bets you are going to make next.
This is the biggest "garbage" in this entire thread...IMO. Never have I read a post on this site which I disagree with so completely. "Tearing up a ticket has to eat at your very soul to show a profit at this game"? Utterly ridiculous!

The winners are winners because they are so good at "losing". It doesn't affect them...anymore than an out affects the 300-hitting baseball player. How can tearing up a ticket eat at our very soul...when losing is what we do the vast majority of the time in this game.

Learn to control the LOSING...I say. The "winning" takes care of itself. The surest way to losing in this game, is to try to bet on the "sure things" in order to avoid tearing up a ticket.

And stop listening to those smart-talking guys at the OTB...for heaven's sake. They couldn't tell the truth to save their lives.

[Robert Goren]

This is the biggest "garbage" in this entire thread...IMO. Never have I read a post on this site which I disagree with so completely. "Tearing up a ticket has to eat at your very soul to show a profit at this game"? Utterly ridiculous!

The winners are winners because they are so good at "losing". It doesn't affect them...anymore than an out affects the 300-hitting baseball player. How can tearing up a ticket eat at our very soul...when losing is what we do the vast majority of the time in this game.

Learn to control the LOSING...I say. The "winning" takes care of itself. The surest way to losing in this game, is to try to bet on the "sure things" in order to avoid tearing up a ticket.

And stop listening to those smart-talking guys at the OTB...for heaven's sake. They couldn't tell the truth to save their lives. You have your opinions and I have mine. But I will say this . Nobody I ever heard of anybody who got to top of anything by accepting losing. I have got admit I am a sore loser whether it is at the track or in poker or in bridge or anything else I ever took seriously. you don't have to compete at the highest levels, but there is no point to accept losing at your chosen level. You can never control losing if you think it acceptable. You can bet multiple combinations, but you want a winner some place on the ticket. Once you accept losing, you will lose. Because you saying to yourself you are will not willing put forth your best effort all the time. There is no greater truth in racing or life.

[Robert Goren]

The difference between a 300 hitter and 250 hitter is one hit in 20 at bats and at the major league level, millions of dollars. The main difference at the level is the 300 hitter wants that hit more than 250 hitter. Ever notice 250 hitters don't throw bats after striking out for the third time in a game. They have accepted they are 250 hitters at that level. Anyway that is the way I see it.

[thaskalos]

You have your opinions and I have mine. But I will say this . Nobody I ever heard of anybody who got to top of anything by accepting losing. I have got admit I am a sore loser whether it is at the track or in poker or in bridge or anything else I ever took seriously. you don't have to compete at the highest levels, but there is no point to accept losing at your chosen level. You can never control losing if you think it acceptable. You can bet multiple combinations, but you want a winner some place on the ticket. Once you accept losing, you will lose. Because you saying to yourself you are will not willing put forth your best effort all the time. There is no greater truth in racing or life.

EVERYBODY who gambles must accept losing...it's an inescapable part of the package. We may not like it...but we learn to deal with it. We can't afford to allow it to "tear at our very soul".

This is GAMBLING, Robert...and you can't take the "gamble" out of gambling. There ARE no "sure things"...that's why we call it "gambling".

A poster posted a thread in the poker forum, where he asked what the most dangerous hands in hold-em were...and your answer to that question revealed the poker player that you are...and the clear fault in your gambling logic. You said..."pocket kings".

POCKET KINGS...a dangerous holding? That's the second-best holding in the entire game...and you would be a wealthy man if you were dealt this hand all the time. When I read that response of yours...I realized all I needed to know about you as a player.

Keep looking for those aces, Robert. I hope you find them... :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

This is the biggest "garbage" in this entire thread...IMO. Never have I read a post on this site which I disagree with so completely. "Tearing up a ticket has to eat at your very soul to show a profit at this game"? Utterly ridiculous!

The winners are winners because they are so good at "losing". It doesn't affect them...anymore than an out affects the 300-hitting baseball player. How can tearing up a ticket eat at our very soul...when losing is what we do the vast majority of the time in this game.

Learn to control the LOSING...I say. The "winning" takes care of itself. The surest way to losing in this game, is to try to bet on the "sure things" in order to avoid tearing up a ticket.

And stop listening to those smart-talking guys at the OTB...for heaven's sake. They couldn't tell the truth to save their lives.

I think RG means that the losing can "Fuel" the burning desire to win because the losing hurts so much. If the losing doesnt hurt badly enough, you might not fight hard enough to win.

Like the cowboy on the Tommie Copper commercials says "im not afraid of dying, i'm afraid of losing".

[thaskalos]

I think RG means that the losing can "Fuel" the burning desire to win because the losing hurts so much. If the losing doesnt hurt badly enough, you might not fight hard enough to win.

Like the cowboy on the Tommie Copper commercials says "im not afraid of dying, i'm afraid of losing".
RG said that you have to hate tearing up tickets if you want to win in this game. According to him...losing bets should "tear at your soul". That's nonsense. Tearing up tickets is nothing...because you are talking about individual bets. Do winning blackjack players get all torn up inside when they lose individual hands? Do winning poker players expect to win every hand that they get involved in?

It's the end result that counts...and if individual losses bother you...then you are either betting too much...or you shouldn't be betting at all.

You won't be able to win if you can't afford to lose.

[Stillriledup]

RG said that you have to hate tearing up tickets if you want to win in this game. According to him...losing bets should "tear at your soul". That's nonsense. Tearing up tickets is nothing...because you are talking about individual bets. Do winning blackjack players get all torn up inside when they lose individual hands? Do winning poker players expect to win every hand that they get involved in?

It's the end result that counts...and if individual losses bother you...then you are either betting too much...or you shouldn't be betting at all.

You won't be able to win if you can't afford to lose.

I think i understand RG's points even if maybe he didnt word things the best he possibly could have. I think there's a difference between being bothered by losing and being fueled by losing. Now, i wouldnt advise a newbie to get all worked up over every losing bet, but just keep in mind that you need to have a burning desire to be great and people who have burning desires to be great don't "Accept" losing.

I'm sure that Michael Jordan didnt get all "bothered" at every shot he missed, but i bet he was pretty pissed off after a lost game and was fueled with extra motivation in the next game to not let that happen again. I know, there are very few Michael Jordan's in sports or any other walk of life for that matter, but in order to be the best who's ever done something, you have to have a certain mental approach to losing and you have to let the losses fuel your burning desire the next chance you get to redeem yourself.

[thaskalos]

I think i understand RG's points even if maybe he didnt word things the best he possibly could have. I think there's a difference between being bothered by losing and being fueled by losing. Now, i wouldnt advise a newbie to get all worked up over every losing bet, but just keep in mind that you need to have a burning desire to be great and people who have burning desires to be great don't "Accept" losing.

I'm sure that Michael Jordan didnt get all "bothered" at every shot he missed, but i bet he was pretty pissed off after a lost game and was fueled with extra motivation in the next game to not let that happen again. I know, there are very few Michael Jordan's in sports or any other walk of life for that matter, but in order to be the best who's ever done something, you have to have a certain mental approach to losing and you have to let the losses fuel your burning desire the next chance you get to redeem yourself.
Here is what you and RG are forgetting:

When a baseball player strikes out, or when a basketball player misses a shot...then he obviously made a "mistake"...and he could theoretically use that "mistake" for additional motivation in his play later on.

But gambling doesn't work that way. Gambling is a game of incomplete information...so we never know if we've made a mistake when we lose a bet. In gambling...you can play wrong and win...or you can make the correct play and lose.

So, fretting over individual losses is counterproductive...because, often-times, the mistake for the loss is not ours. Once our bet is made...we relinquish control of the situation.

[Stillriledup]

Here is what you and RG are forgetting:

When a baseball player strikes out, or when a basketball player misses a shot...then he obviously made a "mistake"...and he could theoretically use that "mistake" for additional motivation in his play later on.

But gambling doesn't work that way. Gambling is a game of incomplete information...so we never know if we've made a mistake when we lose a bet. In gambling...you can play wrong and win...or you can make the correct play and lose.

So, fretting over individual losses is counterproductive...because, often-times, the mistake for the loss is not ours. Once our bet is made...we relinquish control of the situation.

In reality, this is true, however, when a horseplayer loses a bet, they arent usually thinking that they made the "correct" wager, they're thinking about the "mistake" they made at not having the winner.

Excellent points about "making the right play", i think its always good to be reminded that good bets sometimes lose and that every losing bet isnt a "bad bet" that you made.

[Sapio]

Manage your expectations and losing streaks will not be a problem.

Thomas Sapio

[Bullet Plane]

I think that I agree the RG on this one. However, I do think there is a case of apples and oranges going on here.

When you are a beginner in this game, you will lose many bets. You go to the track to "play", not win.

At some point in time, you get tired of losing. You read a few books, meet some people who know how to play the game, and generally get spun up on horseracing.

I think that it mostly gets started with getting sick of losing, but loving the game, so wanting to continue to play. You have to elevate your game.

It's no fun to burn money.

Of course, many will say they were playing at a pro level at five years of age.

Some folks tell some pretty tall tales here.

[comet52]

one of the MAIN tennants

tenets

[thaskalos]

When you are a beginner in this game, you will lose many bets. You go to the track to "play", not win.



Even if you are an EXPERT in this game, you will lose many bets. EVERYONE who plays this game loses many bets. We lose many bets NOT because we are not playing "to win"...but because the game is not as predictable as we'd like it to be.

[ultracapper]

If when you tear up a ticket you just say to yourself, "Oh well, I lost that bet. It's part of the game", QUIT RIGHT NOW. You're in deep trouble.

Everybody has heard this saying, or a paraphrase of it, a million times in their life................. "Those that don't learn from their mistakes, will repeat their mistakes."

More times than not, when we place losing bets, we've made a mistake. There are those times when the jockey botched it, or a trainer juiced it, or the racing Gods told us to stick it where the sun don't shine, but for the most part, a losing bet can usually be placed on the decision making or handicapping error of the bettor. In order to win, one must accept that. If you don't then you have effectively said you have no control and you are simply playing a mini lottery one race to the next.

I've got a long story about a mistake I made a couple months ago that 99.9% of all horse bettors would never even realize was made. I'll save it because my posts are too damn long anyhow.

[thaskalos]

If when you tear up a ticket you just say to yourself, "Oh well, I lost that bet. It's part of the game", QUIT RIGHT NOW. You're in deep trouble.

Everybody has heard this saying, or a paraphrase of it, a million times in their life................. "Those that don't learn from their mistakes, will repeat their mistakes."

More times than not, when we place losing bets, we've made a mistake. There are those times when the jockey botched it, or a trainer juiced it, or the racing Gods told us to stick it where the sun don't shine, but for the most part, a losing bet can usually be placed on the decision making or handicapping error of the bettor. In order to win, one must accept that. If you don't then you have effectively said you have no control and you are simply playing a mini lottery one race to the next.

I've got a long story about a mistake I made a couple months ago that 99.9% of all horse bettors would never even realize was made. I'll save it because my posts are too damn long anyhow.

With thinking like this...no wonder you took a six year hiatus from the game.

Or were you "just recharging your batteries"?

[BettinBilly]

Ultra:
I'd like to read about that "mistake". You should post it.

To my belief, the greatest gift of "The Philosophy of Losing" for me was in the mid 80's. I was at the track with my girlfriend, and I was pissed. I had lost every race that day, and was down quite a bit. I was standing in line to place another bet and bitching about it to my girlfriend.

A much older guy behind me looked at me and said, "Son, you are at a horse track betting on horses. There are only four rules of Horse Racing you have to remember. 1. You place the bets. 2. Horses do the running. 3. You win some you lose some. 4. That's why they call it gambling."

Indeed. Win and Loss. No sure thing. That's why they call it "Gambling". If we won all the time, they'd call it something else.

[ultracapper]

With thinking like this...no wonder you took a six year hiatus from the game.

Or were you "just recharging your batteries"?

I don't know if you're here to challenge me or torment me, but I'm glad you're here;)

[ultracapper]

I took a 6 year hiatus because they closed Longacres, Yakima Meadows and Playfair in Spokane were grasping for air, and internet gambling was in it's infancy, if it existed at all. It was more that there was just nowhere to really play than that I wanted to quit. I was making great progress the last few years of Longacres.

[thaskalos]

I took a 6 year hiatus because they closed Longacres, Yakima Meadows and Playfair in Spokane were grasping for air, and internet gambling was in it's infancy, if it existed at all. It was more that there was just nowhere to really play than that I wanted to quit. I was making great progress the last few years of Longacres.
You will never progress enough to avoid tearing up way more tickets than you cash...I guarantee you that. Tearing up tickets is the nature of the game. You can let it torment you if you want...or you can learn to accept it. The game doesn't care either way...and neither do I. :)

[ultracapper]

Ultra:
I'd like to read about that "mistake". You should post it.

To my belief, the greatest gift of "The Philosophy of Losing" for me was in the mid 80's. I was at the track with my girlfriend, and I was pissed. I had lost every race that day, and was down quite a bit. I was standing in line to place another bet and bitching about it to my girlfriend.

A much older guy behind me looked at me and said, "Son, you are at a horse track betting on horses. There are only four rules of Horse Racing you have to remember. 1. You place the bets. 2. Horses do the running. 3. You win some you lose some. 4. That's why they call it gambling."

Indeed. Win and Loss. No sure thing. That's why they call it "Gambling". If we won all the time, they'd call it something else.

Maybe 6 or 8 weeks ago, one of those Warren owned/Gutierrez trained horses looked primed for a win. The bug Nicolas was up. The horse is a closer. Nicolas is married to the rail. Nakatani was on another closer, I believe Tama County, but not certain and I'm just not in the mood to dig it up. There was a 3rd closer in there also that had a look, it may have been Bobby Flay. Anyhow, I did all my work on the race, maybe an hour and a half, and had a great grasp of it, and it was the Warren horse that was the play, 11-1. My big caveat was...Nicolas loves the rail, and the speed will back up, and I was very certain that the pro Nakatani would be able to beat the bug to the "spot" and block him in behind the fading closers. Sure enough, they straighten for home, Nicolas crawls up the fading speeds ass, and Nakatani blocks him in for 25 yards, finally hitting one more gear and leaving the spot when he feels Bobby Flay making his run. Now Nakatani and Bobby Flay have a 3 or 4 length lead on Nicolas as he swings out, and he hits the next gear and closes on them like a maniac. He gets the show, a half length from the winner's circle. I saw the whole damn thing play out while I handicapped the race, yet I played Warren anyhow as I just couldn't get off the desire to bet what I thought was the best horse. I was very comfortable with Nakatani's horse also, and I believe he payed better than $10.

Most players would have said I got screwed by a bad jockey's ride, but I screwed myself by not getting off him after seeing that this very scenario was a very real possibility. I told my 25 year old son while we were handicapping that I could see this coming, and then when it played out and I was using some not so family friendly language at my TV screen, he just said "you knew it would happen, why didn't you play the winner?"

Needless to say, Warren's horse comes back 2 weeks later, Gutierrez punishes the bug by ditching him in favor of Bejarano, and he guides him home easily at 7/5.

[ultracapper]

Tearing up tickets doesn't torment me, but....

1) When I do, I try very hard to figure out why I'm doing it, and

2) I try like hell to avoid it as much as possible.

[ultracapper]

And I play to win and place, I still need that comfort zone. Last I looked, I cashed 29 tickets and "tore up" 36. If I would have just been playing to win, I'd have cashed 15 and tore up 50. What's your definition of "a lot more"?

[thaskalos]

Tearing up tickets doesn't torment me, but....

1) When I do, I try very hard to figure out why I'm doing it, and

2) I try like hell to avoid it as much as possible.
Speaking from my own personal experience...I lose the most when I try to avoid losing. So...I try to make the best decisions that I can given the knowledge that I've been able to acquire...and I don't worry at all about the results of individual races. I can't do better than my best.

Perfectionists live miserable lives...especially at the track.

[BettinBilly]

Thanks for posting this, Ultra.

...... Anyhow, I did all my work on the race, maybe an hour and a half, and had a great grasp of it....... I saw the whole damn thing play out while I handicapped the race, yet I played [another horse] anyhow as I just couldn't get off the desire to bet what I thought was the best horse.

Been there, done that. What truly avid Horseplayer hasn't?

.....Most players would have said I got screwed by a bad jockey's ride, but I screwed myself by not getting off him after seeing that this very scenario was a very real possibility...snip.

You know that. We know that. You did it, WE do it.

Anyway, I appreciate you sharing that. I had a similar situation last season for a substantial bet and subsequent loss. In hindsight, because I was betting beyond my comfort zone, I played [another horse] contrary to my handicapping because I couldn't get off the desire to bet what I thought was the best horse even though I had come to the handicapping conclusion that [another horse] would take the win. He did, I lost. It hurt. I moved on.

[ultracapper]

Speaking from my own personal experience...I lose the most when I try to avoid losing. So...I try to make the best decisions that I can given the knowledge that I've been able to acquire...and I don't worry at all about the results of individual races. I can't do better than my best.

Perfectionists live miserable lives...especially at the track.

You and I are wired differently, that's for certain.

Do you try to pick a one, and then attempt to eliminate the remainder of the field, or do you start by elimination, and then work with what's left? Most players I know try and pick a horse, and then support it. For years now, my first step is eliminating as much as I can before I even think of "getting on" one.

[ultracapper]

BettingBilly,

I know we've all been there, and I knew you'd understand, but like most players, my first inclination was to bitch the boy, when I knew damn well I just needed to look in the mirror.

[Overlay]

You and I are wired differently, that's for certain.

Do you try to pick a one, and then attempt to eliminate the remainder of the field, or do you start by elimination, and then work with what's left? Most players I know try and pick a horse, and then support it. For years now, my first step is eliminating as much as I can before I even think of "getting on" one.
And then there's a third school, for which wagering value is the primary selection criterion (including consideration of horses other than the one judged most likely to win), rather than assessment of pure winning probability by itself.

[ultracapper]

Lots of ways to skin a cat. That third way is a cat of different spots though. And losing better not ruin your day if you're playing that way.

[thaskalos]

You and I are wired differently, that's for certain.

Do you try to pick a one, and then attempt to eliminate the remainder of the field, or do you start by elimination, and then work with what's left? Most players I know try and pick a horse, and then support it. For years now, my first step is eliminating as much as I can before I even think of "getting on" one.

I remember handicapping a grass race at Arlington on this board...and I did it in some detail, so I could show the thinking process that I go through when I analyze a race. But the race was from some time ago, and I can no longer find it...otherwise I would re-post it here as an example.

I am mainly a vertical exotics bettor...so I don't eliminate many horses at the start.

[ultracapper]

We have 2 different objectives. I probably stick to one horse because I'm a "perfectionist;) " and know it's easier than trying to pick 2 or 3.

[Overlay]

Lots of ways to skin a cat. That third way is a cat of different spots though. And losing better not ruin your day if you're playing that way.
What would really ruin my day would be betting the same underlaid horses that everyone else is backing because they're the one most likely winner (and not collecting enough when they do win to cover the losses on the races when they don't), while eliminating horses without a second (or maybe even a first) look that might not be the best in their fields, but that have a greater chance (and perhaps a much greater chance) of winning than their odds give them credit for, and then watching them finish first at high mutuels.

[ultracapper]

Agreed

[Bullet Plane]

Even if you are an EXPERT in this game, you will lose many bets. EVERYONE who plays this game loses many bets. We lose many bets NOT because we are not playing "to win"...but because the game is not as predictable as we'd like it to be.


There is a difference between "losing many bets" and losing.

That is where you don't get it...

You can lose many bets, but still win.

It's cash ahead or behind in the end that counts.

[Robert Goren]

Thaskalos writes like he is playing with an unlimited bankroll. Most players and almost no beginners have that luxury. I am a big fan of the Kelly Criterion when it comes to judging whether a bet is a good one. It gives high value to positive expectation bets with a high expectation of winning. I am not saying that you should bet the amount Kelly says, but you could do worse. I am saying that the Kelly number tells how good a bet it is. I bet longshots all the time, but only when I think they are the most likely winner of the race. My basic game plan is to find those bets. But that doesn't mean I pass up high value bets at low odds. You take your profit where you find it. I think if you start making bets that have low expectations of cashing even if they are profitable in the long run , you will run out money to bet before the long run kicks in. That said, I probably bet a higher % of races that I look at than almost anyone who posts here. I tear up my share of tickets. I just hate it when I do. You see I do not really believe in % bets. I believe that barring something strange you can find the winner in every race. When I don't do that, I don't like it. I don't think betting the races is like betting a roulette wheel. I believe when you start set %s on which horse will win, you are actually setting %s that you have found the right horse. I know that is not the popular view here.
I know I rambled a lot in this post and some of it may sound contradictory, but it is the way I approach the game and firmly believe its the best approach for the small bettor. I might bet differently if I was betting thousands per race, probably not much differently.

[whodoyoulike]

Tearing up tickets doesn't torment me, but....

1) When I do, I try very hard to figure out why I'm doing it, and

2) I try like hell to avoid it as much as possible.

Regarding:

1) always good to do.

2) people forget that "shit happens" and usually your selection.

And I play to win and place, I still need that comfort zone. Last I looked, I cashed 29 tickets and "tore up" 36. If I would have just been playing to win, I'd have cashed 15 and tore up 50. What's your definition of "a lot more"?

Just curious, have you checked what you would have won if you had bet only to WIN?

[ultracapper]

Regarding:

1) always good to do.

2) people forget that "shit happens" and usually your selection.



Just curious, have you checked what you would have won if you had bet only to WIN?

As you know before I even tell you, I would be money ahead if I had bet it all on the nose. But I still feel comforted when I cash those place backers and get out of a losing race with my money, and usually a little profit. I don't look at the winners and say to myself how much would I have if I put that place money on the win ticket. When I have a winner, I'm satisfied, and when I get my money back after getting beat, I'm comforted.

If $20 is my base, any horse 6/1 or higher, I bet $13 to win and $7 to place. I then need a $5.80 place payout to break even if I come in second. As the odds get higher, I'll swing a bit more over to the win. I bet a 19/1 last weekend and had 80%/20% on it instead of the 65%/35% I used above. All I want out of the place payoff is my money back if I get beat. I try to max the win ticket. 3/1 to 5/1 I just bet 50/50. Here's the real kicker. I need to get rid of those sub 6-1 bets. As a whole, I'm down on them for the year. Just lose them. Even the place bet can't save me on those. And if I would have just bet them to win, I'd still be down on them. There is a reason players have always preached price, price, price in this game.

[whodoyoulike]

Thanks, usually when people tell me they bet win/place it's for the same amount on each. When you vary the win and place amounts bet I can see how you could be better off.

[Dark Horse]

The ability to deal with a losing streak may be the number one requirement in this game. I would qualify a losing streak as a period of time when every conceivable, and inconceivable, fluke goes against the player. In most cases this wounds the psyche. And any bets made by a wounded psyche will only make the losing worse. So I would ask myself four questions:

1) Do I have mental clarity?
2) Is this good handicapping?
3) Is this a good bet?
4) Is this the right bet size, and can I afford to lose this money without being affected emotionally by it?

If you can say yes to those four questions, trust your ability and take a few deep breaths. The streak has nothing to do with you. Otherwise, take a break. Half of a losing streak can be good handicapping combined with wrong bets. You don't want that.

Bottomline. If you can't handle a losing streak, take a break. If you can, take a few deep breaths.

[limit2]

Keep records. Match expected and actual results. Conquer Win slot before exotic play. Only Overlays. Divide play into 6 consecutive day cycles and seek 70% of them to be positive.

[ReplayRandall]

Review records by day of the week, track, distances and surfaces. Find your weakest days, tracks and types of races and eliminate them. Find your strongest days and make those your top priority. You may find you can never make a profit on Wednesday or Thursday, no matter where or what races you play. Your records are your horse-playing lifeblood. Without them, you can never win in the long term. With them, as long you're completely honest, you can hone and fine-tune your game to make it profitable. Find what works for you and treasure it. Eliminate everything else.....

[Robert Goren]

Welcome to the site ReplayRandall.

[ReplayRandall]

Thank you for your hospitality, Robert.....

[WATT Wizard]

If you have confidence in your handicapping talents and techniques you can easily deal with it most of the time.

I remember many years ago at Penn National I had a losing streak one August that extended almost the entire month. It was unbelievable and it almost shook my confidence in my handicapping ability. For some reason, winning and losing seem to run in streaks, but, thank God, never again like that.

In the vast majority of time you can go back to a horse or a race and say, "how did I miss that?" If your handicapping skills are up to snuff, there's an answer to that most of the time and your confidence can be restored.

One thing I learned years ago: Play only those races that have been selected carefully. Play every race on that day, say ten, and you might lose six - and those losses will usually offset the profits you deserved from the highly profitable four.