Simple is better

[dav4463]

I primarily base my plays on class moves/trainer intention, connections win%, (jockey and trainer), Beyer numbers (last race, also back Beyers), and patterns of speed figures. I also take into account the pace scenario (running styles) and the quality of competition each horse has been facing.

My best plays are the ones that take about 2 minutes to arrive at my contenders. The races that take longer than that are too contentious for me. I do not use pace figures at all, just running styles and the Beyers.

I posted a while back about exactas and this is the key to hitting these solid exactas along with some nice win prices. I always have the fear that it's gonna go south sometime, but so far so good !

I feel like I'm not working hard enough sometimes to win these races. Is simpler better, or is it all going to fall apart ?

I used to spend 3 hours on each race card. Now I spend about 30 min per card and come up with a play in 2/3 of the races I pick. I usually have a pick in about 3/4 the races I've handicapped. So on average, I play about 3 or 4 races per card. I play two cards per night, three on occasion.

[dav4463]

I could go through four or five cards easily in a day, but since I need to see the odds up until about 3 MTP, I can't concentrate on more than two or three race cards at the same time. Three is pushing it.

[andicap]

Work is the curse of the drinking classes of this country.
--Oscar Wilde.

Hard work never killed anybody, but why take a chance?
- Edgar Bergen

People are always available for work in the past tense.
- Zymurgy's Law of Volunteer Labour

If hard work were such a wonderful thing, surely the rich would have kept it all to themselves.
- Lane Kirkland

In fifty years, he never worked a day. To him, nine to five was odds on a horse. - Archie Bunker
- Carroll O'Connor

I like work; it fascinates me. I can sit and look at it for hours.
- Jerome K. Jerome

Hard work is damn near as overrated as monogamy.
- Huey Long

Ambition is a poor excuse for not having sense enough to be lazy.
- Charlie McCarthy

If hard work is the key to success, most people would rather pick the lock.
- Claude McDonald

People are still willing to do an honest day's work. The trouble is they want a week's pay for it.
- Joey Adams

A bum asked me "Give me $10 till payday." I asked "When's payday?" He said "I don't know, you're the one who is working!"
- Henny Youngman

I wish my brother would learn a trade, so I would know what kind of work he's out of.
- Henny Youngman

Ambition is a poor excuse for not having sense enough to be lazy.
- Milan Kundera

The less effort, the faster and more powerful you will be.
- Bruce Lee

And finally from my hero,

Work?!!!?
-- Maynard G. Krebs

[dav4463]

I like those quotes !