Beyer on Giacomo

[cj]

A whole bunch of people, on this board and in the press, really ripped into Beyer over his article about last year's Derby. Seems Giacomo has pretty much proved everything he wrote was spot on.

[Tom]

Yeah, he is a G3/CLF Alw at best. I didn't consider him a contender in his last race and threw him out completely yesterday. I don'tknow why people think he is such a potentially great horse - he beat a speed decimated field at a strange distance and I think that was the best race you will ever see him throw out. Reminds me a lt of Dollar Bill....today's the day!:eek:

I was suprised a few people told me they though Funny Cide was a huge threat yesterday as well.

[the little guy]

As you may know CJ, I just wrote about that somewhere else.

Giacomo's Derby win was a fluke then and has been proven so in subsequent races. Of course there's no accountability for the masses who think just because he won the Derby he was a special horse and felt free to criticize anyone who dared disgree regardless of whether or not sound logic was used.

[cj]

As you may know CJ, I just wrote about that somewhere else.

Yeah, I stole your stuff :)

I did agree pretty strongly with Beyer here last year, figured it was worth bringing up.

I think one of the things mentioned was the anti-West Coast bias. Of course, this isn't brought up again when High Limit was given a highly questionable figure winning the Strub, the highest number given out this year.

[toetoe]

He's still better than that "performance" yesterday, no?

[cj]

He's still better than that "performance" yesterday, no?

Honestly, I don't think he is. He probably ran his usual race yesterday.

[Tee]

Was Beyer wrong in his assessment of the 2005 Kentucky Derby? IMHO he most surely was, but I won't hold this against him. The Derby is just one race on one day out of the entire racing calender with upwards of 20 horses & too many variables that will lead to being wrong more often than not.

Now was Beyer wrong in his assessment of the California contingent's overall talent as thoroughbred athletes?

Doesn't look that way from where I'm sitting.

[kenwoodallpromos]

"Over the past 25 years, in fact, post-Derby frustration has become commonplace for those with the roseate blanket. In their 193 post-Derby starts, they've won a total of 59 races. Yes, many of those Derby winners were compromised by injuries or premature retirements, but the averages are telling: 8.96 starts, with 2.6 wins, 2.16 seconds and 1.32 thirds.

Silver Charm (1997) and Alysheba (1987) were shining exceptions. Silver Charm won eight of his next 17 starts, including the Dubai World Cup. Alysheba won nine of 15, including the Breeders' Cup Classic.

But not since Alysheba has a horse followed his Derby victory with an encore performance that earned him a championship the next season. Alysheba was Horse of the Year for 1988."
___________________
Giacomo special? No more special than most recent Derby winners!

[saratoga guy]

I said it then , I'll say it now -- I don't think it was so much what he said, as how he said it.

Sure, Giacomo was/is no superstar -- but the headline writer in the Washington Post didn't help Beyer at all by tabbing the article, Just About the Worst First Possible, and the DRF was even worse, titling the reprint, By any standard, this Derby was a dud. "By any standard"?!?

Then Beyer opened his article saying, "American racing has been blessed in the last few years by memorable drama in the 3-year-old classics: great thoroughbred performances, engaging human characters, rags-to-riches stories and bids for the Triple Crown that generated public excitement and record television ratings." Adding, "But the victory by Giacomo in Saturday's Kentucky Derby came as a crashing anticlimax."

But c'mon, it's hard to deny -- like them or not -- the two longshots and Afleet Alex offered up one of the most exciting Derby finishes in years.

Derby 2005 also had its share of engaging human characters -- and Mike Smith winning was a good story.

There were probably some rags-to-riches stories on-track -- but there was certainly plenty of coverage of the big scores some lucky fans made on the Derby gimmicks.

And as to "bids for the Triple Crown that generated public excitement" -- this comment seemed out of place coming only a couple of days after the Derby. Five weeks later I think Afleet Alex had provided plenty of thrills in the remaining two races that generated public excitement.

Ultimately then, I think Beyer's statement that Derby 2005 was "a race that will rank among the worst Derbies of recent decades" was a bit of hyperbole that was unjustified in the eyes of many fans.

But that doesn't automatically translate into their believing Giacomo was/is a superstar. (And I'll add, I don't think Saturday's race necessarily confirms he's some kind of dud either.)

[the little guy]

What race will confirm that Giacomo is a dud? How many poor performances does he need to turn in?

And, furthermore, why was Mike Smith winning the Derby a good story? I like Mike, he's a nice guy, but he can't ride anymore. Have you seen his stats at Gulfstream? So, a once successful jockey, who now rides poorly, getting lucky to win the Derby is a good story? By that logic, really anyone winning the Derby is a " good story ".

What Beyer did was intelligently disect the race and correctly explain that the results were not indicative of many of the contestants respective abilities. For that he was lambasted. He spoke the truth as he saw it, as he always does, and was proven right over time, and for that he was unfairly criticized. Hell, someone here even suggested it was sour grapes. I know Andy Beyer VERY well and whether people want to believe it or not he's not a sour grapes kind of guy.

[ezpace]

Beyer gets knocked way to much IMO . High Limit was the perfect set up when he won last time, proving if they hang around long enough ,find a track they like ,,postive form cycle ,running style, and post bias will get them to the winners circle sometime*

[classhandicapper]

A whole bunch of people, on this board and in the press, really ripped into Beyer over his article about last year's Derby. Seems Giacomo has pretty much proved everything he wrote was spot on.

I never understood the criticism of Beyer on that. I think he evaluated the performance correctly. I guess some people just don't like negative articles.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I was one of those who brought up Beyer's Ca bias.
This fact was not based on his assessment of the 2005 KY Derby or Giacomo, it was based on the fact that he was interviewed by the SF sports-omly station KNBR on the 7-8AM Pacific time hor5seracing show "At the Track" the morning of the Derby by Sam Spear, host, host of the Nort6hern Ca replay shows, and GGF publicist.
Beter's exact comment was "California racing stinks" in reference to any Ca horses' chances to win the 2005 KY Derby.
Not,only did a Ca raced horse win as a DUD, but now after personally doing the figures for TP, he now likes Ca tracks just fine the way they are, GGF under 22 seconds for the first 1/4 most of the weekend.
Note that I have not been bad mouthing Beyer lately, and I have not and will not make any reference to Beyer's current Ca opinion having anything to do with his figures contract. I doubt that played into his comments.
I have nothing against Beyer himself and have said more power to him and his figures contract. I have said on this board that his numbers are the most accurate of the major figures people (not counting CJ, who has more kinds of figures). I will go so far as to say that if I ever met Beyer I would offer to buy him a drinkl- A wine spritzer!LOL!!

[samyn on the green]

The Derby was run exactly the way It was supposed to be run on paper. The problem is some handicappers neglected to consider, or misread the pace scenario and it cost them dearly. Numerous contenders in the 2005 Derby were clearly need the lead types, with many stetchout sprinter types who figured to contribute to a scorching pace. This key observation was missed by most pre-race. Why did they not consider the rabbit who clearly was going to set a torrid pace? Why are they bashing the winner instead of chiding those that misread or ignored this key pace factor.

This was a race that we handicapped for four days and nights. The work was rewarded with a handsome score. As expected the race was run with a fiery pace up front as most of the contenders were not only speed but need the lead speed types who needed a 47 3/5-48 half to score. The pace figured to be around and 46 flat and this speed inclined group blazed their way to 45 and change. The speeds were doomed at the half mile pole. The inevitable pace collapse materialized and one of the horses that figured to benefit won.

This race was a beautiful example of the game and hardly the anti-climatic race for those that laid down the propercap. The two keys in the race with the best closing power figs were Wilko and then 2nd was Giacomo. Did anybody else consider the two 1:11 bullets works by Giacomo leading up to the race? Has he worked like that before or since?

A better reflection for Beyer and his readers would be how did we get this race so wrong? Downgrading the winner of the race does not change the fact that the majority of handicappers had missed the entire pace scenario that was about to unfold. Bashing the rightful victor rather than admiting the gross mistake seems to be more of a post race ego soother rather than an discussion of verisimiltue. Put the ego aside and learn from the race rather than knock the winner.

When Giacomo shows positive form and finds a speed laced field of need the lead types, he will run them down, as he is a reliable closer/plodder who has hit the board 6 of 9 stakes races he has run in. That is who Giacomo is and this is the game we play.

[saratoga guy]

What race will confirm that Giacomo is a dud? How many poor performances does he need to turn in?

Maybe it depends on your definition of "dud". Giacomo has raced four times since the Derby and he's finished third twice -- once in a G1 and again in a G2. In those four races he's earned over $150K. So the scorecard is: Three G1s and a G2 with a couple of in-the-money finishes and $150K in the bank. I don't think that defines him as either a superstar or a dud.

And, furthermore, why was Mike Smith winning the Derby a good story?

A jock on the downslope of his career, lost the Derby as the favorite on Holy Bull, comes back eleven years later to win the race on a son of Holy Bull. Maybe it's not everyone's cup of tea as a "good story" but it received enough ink in the press in the days after the Derby to be considered such.

What Beyer did was intelligently disect the race and correctly explain that the results were not indicative of many of the contestants respective abilities.

If that was all he did he might not have received any flack for the article. But again, as I pointed out, he wasn't helped by the headline writers (do you agree that the race was a dud by any standard?), and his opening paragraphs further tended to skew the article as being critical of the race itself as opposed to the participants ("...will rank among the worst Derbies of recent decades").

He spoke the truth as he saw it, as he always does, and was proven right over time, and for that he was unfairly criticized.

Another bit of hyperbole from the original article: "But besides the two favorites, there was no quality in the 20-horse field - just a bunch of horses who had won slow prep races because somebody had to win them."

It hard to say he was proven right over time when the "no quality" Flower Alley (ninth in the Ky Derby) went on to win the G1 Jim Dandy, G1 Travers and finish a solid second to Saint Liam in the G1 BC Classic. Also, High Limit (20th and last in the Ky Derby) went into Saturday's Big Cap off of two graded stakes wins in SoCal. And we'll have to wait and see on Bandini (19th in the Derby) but certainly his track record-breaking return last week displayed plenty of promise.

I said it then -- perhaps to you -- and it bears repeating, I like Beyer's work, but not every piece a writer publishes is a home-run and this one was seriously flawed.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Sounds like a movie title!
http://www.stallionregister.com/1318476.html;
Holy Bull's sire record- many stakes winners, some hard-knockers still running at age 6-9; but it took a little Ca. maiden winner to revenge his daddy's loss in the big one- in the 2005 KY Derby.
Yes, in this era of rabbits and multi-length high Beyer prep winners, a dud of a horse who consistently ran even quarters ran the way he always ran- the same way many KY Derby winners win- keep plugging away to the wire while the blue-blood speed demons burn themselves out!
Maybe it should be Giacomo vs. Funny Cide in a Turfway 1 1/16 mile match race! Handicap that one! :jump:

[cj]

Maybe it should be Giacomo vs. Funny Cide in a Turfway 1 1/16 mile match race! Handicap that one! :jump:

Funny Cide in a romp.

[JustRalph]

Funny Cide in a romp.

I agree! Especially with a smart rider........he could distance him.........

[GMB@BP]

i think andy should get a special eclipse for calling giacomo out for being average, no one in this business saw it coming 5 minutes after the race!

its pretty funny, its like if you route for a horse to win, a horse like giacomo or funny cide, its like you should be wearing the "scarlet letter". bottom line is no one thought either of these horses were all that great, especially giacomo.

[Valuist]

Beyer isn't the only one. Here's what James Quinn had to say in the DRF Weekly charts; and this was before the Big Cap:

"Giacomo may have won the Kentucky Derby but he has not yet satisfied even the diluted definition of the Grade 1/Grade 2 horse. The analysts will imagine Giacomo's form should improve in the Santa Anita Handicap, and they will undoubtedly point out how he should prefer 10 furlongs, and they may prove correct on both points. Still, Giacomo is hardly the kind entitled on merit to win the Santa Anita Handicap, unless as in the Derby, a fast and contested pace in front of him falls apart."

[GMB@BP]

Beyer isn't the only one. Here's what James Quinn had to say in the DRF Weekly charts; and this was before the Big Cap:

"Giacomo may have won the Kentucky Derby but he has not yet satisfied even the diluted definition of the Grade 1/Grade 2 horse. The analysts will imagine Giacomo's form should improve in the Santa Anita Handicap, and they will undoubtedly point out how he should prefer 10 furlongs, and they may prove correct on both points. Still, Giacomo is hardly the kind entitled on merit to win the Santa Anita Handicap, unless as in the Derby, a fast and contested pace in front of him falls apart."

i guess this is all MOTO shit as i dont recall any serious handicapper picking him to win this weekends race.

[Valuist]

Well somebody was betting him. He was 3.9-1

[classhandicapper]

Beyer isn't the only one. Here's what James Quinn had to say in the DRF Weekly charts; and this was before the Big Cap:

"Giacomo may have won the Kentucky Derby but he has not yet satisfied even the diluted definition of the Grade 1/Grade 2 horse. The analysts will imagine Giacomo's form should improve in the Santa Anita Handicap, and they will undoubtedly point out how he should prefer 10 furlongs, and they may prove correct on both points. Still, Giacomo is hardly the kind entitled on merit to win the Santa Anita Handicap, unless as in the Derby, a fast and contested pace in front of him falls apart."

Who did Quinn Like?

[classhandicapper]

Well somebody was betting him. He was 3.9-1

IMO, it's rare to have two significant underlays in the same race, but they managed to accomplish that at SA this weekend.

[Valuist]

He was saying Lava Man was the only one who really fit the criteria but then he kind of ripped on him, questioning his form.......although his "bad form" couldn't have been too bad, coming off a win in the Sunshine Millions. This was probably written a week before the race so he probably didn't have pps in front of him.

[classhandicapper]

He was saying Lava Man was the only one who really fit the criteria but then he kind of ripped on him, questioning his form.......although his "bad form" couldn't have been too bad, coming off a win in the Sunshine Millions. This was probably written a week before the race so he probably didn't have pps in front of him.

I'm a little surprised he was ripping Lava Man's form because I know he makes and uses pace figures. Even though Lava Man was off the insane pace in the Sunshine Millions, his own pace figures for the race indicated that he was still close enough to it to be impacted negatively. It should have been clear to him that Lava Man was sharper than he looked based on his speed figure for that race and his margin of victory against the deeper closers.

I guess his form had some more general negatives in that he was vanned off last year, ran like crap in NY, and then barely lifted a hoof in Dubai, but the last race had indicated a recovery. I played him.

[Tom]

His easy win completely forgives those two clunkers - IMHYOC opinin, it was crazy to take him to dubai. The layoff and easy win in easy time set him up perfectly - I saw him ( and bet him) as one to those bets you wait for - fresh horse, rounding into form, suited to the distance, in amoung suspect horses going that far, a huge fig horse trying something he has failed to do before, and the best back fig in the field.

[classhandicapper]

So many sharp people liked Lava Man I'm surprised he didn't pay 3-5. :lol:

[Valuist]

One of my favorite angles is the horse who has the top back figure in the race at the distance, then goes bad for a few races, then tosses a definite hint that he could be back to peak form. I don't think Lava Man ran back to his 120 but I bet he ran a bigger fig than the 99 they gave him last time out.

Fair value? I think the odds on LM and HIgh Limit should've been reversed, and Giacomo must've taken considerable public sentiment money. The runnerup could've easily been 8-1 or so, instead of the 17-1 he went off at.

[KingChas]

Hell, someone here even suggested it was sour grapes. I know Andy Beyer VERY well and whether people want to believe it or not he's not a sour grapes kind of guy.

Like when he couldn't cap Saratoga a few years back and vowed to never return? :lol: :lol: Gimme a Break! :liar:

[RaceIsClosed]

As you may know CJ, I just wrote about that somewhere else.

Giacomo's Derby win was a fluke then and has been proven so in subsequent races. Of course there's no accountability for the masses who think just because he won the Derby he was a special horse and felt free to criticize anyone who dared disgree regardless of whether or not sound logic was used.

Giacomo did everything asked of him and then some.

He may have another gear as he gets older, too. He kind of reminds me of Forego.

[rastajenk]

What is the "and then some" part of his accomplishments?

[cj]

...He kind of reminds me of Forego.

Me too. Both had/have four legs and a tail. Not much else though.

[JustRalph]

Me too. Both had/have four legs and a tail. Not much else though.:lol: :lol: :lol:

[delayjf]

Given his knees and running style, I wonder if they'd consider running him on the Turf.

[the little guy]

Like when he couldn't cap Saratoga a few years back and vowed to never return? :lol: :lol: Gimme a Break! :liar:

Never let the truth interfere with a poor attempt at humor.


Beyer's " vow " was made in 1994, a year where it rained almost every day until the last week of the meet, and fields and racing were destroyed on what seemed like a daily basis. Beyer, like many of us, was frustrated with the racing cards and what he percieved as NYRA's inability to hold a card together. The actual vow was that he would not return until the following millenium...and he kept his word and did not return until 2001.

In 2005 he hit a Pick-6, by himself, for $191K the last week of the meet.

On this past Sunday he loved Bootery in the Gulfstream 7th ( 2nd at 45-1 ) and on Monday he called me at work to tell me he " loved " Nearly a Lady in the Gulfstream 7th ( $24.40 ).

Eat your heart out.

[JustRalph]

Never let the truth interfere with a poor attempt at humor.


Beyer's " vow " was made in 1994, a year where it rained almost every day until the last week of the meet, and fields and racing were destroyed on what seemed like a daily basis. Beyer, like many of us, was frustrated with the racing cards and what he percieved as NYRA's inability to hold a card together. The actual vow was that he would not return until the following millenium...and he kept his word and did not return until 2001.

In 2005 he hit a Pick-6, by himself, for $191K the last week of the meet.

On this past Sunday he loved Bootery in the Gulfstream 7th ( 2nd at 45-1 ) and on Monday he called me at work to tell me he " loved " Nearly a Lady in the Gulfstream 7th ( $24.40 ).

Eat your heart out.

hey, give beyer my number will ya! :D

[TravisVOX]

It hard to say he was proven right over time when the "no quality" Flower Alley (ninth in the Ky Derby) went on to win the G1 Jim Dandy, G1 Travers and finish a solid second to Saint Liam in the G1 BC Classic. Also, High Limit (20th and last in the Ky Derby) went into Saturday's Big Cap off of two graded stakes wins in SoCal. And we'll have to wait and see on Bandini (19th in the Derby) but certainly his track record-breaking return last week displayed plenty of promise.

Bandini ran like garbage in the Derby though, and Flower Alley blossomed (play on words, haha) later on in the year. He was no where near the horse we saw at Saratoga/Belmont Park as Kentucky. I think therein lies the difference.

I can't get too upset about Andy Beyer. He writes what he thinks and feels, while many other journalists beat around the bush or quite frankly, lack the ability. I myself have loads of boiling points I'd love to make, but in the process I'd destroy my chance of an industry presence. It's tricky, but I do applaud Beyer for at least taking a stand.

[cj]

I myself have loads of boiling points I'd love to make, but in the process I'd destroy my chance of an industry presence. It's tricky, but I do applaud Beyer for at least taking a stand.

Don't we need people in the industry that aren't afraid to speak the truth? If ruffling a few feathers hurts your chance to be part of the establishment, why be a part of it?

[DrugSalvastore]

Don't we need people in the industry that aren't afraid to speak the truth? If ruffling a few feathers hurts your chance to be part of the establishment, why be a part of it?

My greatest fear, is that one day, I might end up being a part of the racing establishment---so that is why I try my heart out, at this young age, to burn every bridge I possibly can, and ruffle as many feathers as absolutely possible.

Even Man O' War couldn't escape my abuse.

[saratoga guy]

Bandini ran like garbage in the Derby though, and Flower Alley blossomed (play on words, haha) later on in the year. He was no where near the horse we saw at Saratoga/Belmont Park as Kentucky. I think therein lies the difference.

The genesis of this thread was that critics of Beyer's May 9, 2005 were proven wrong and Beyer was vindicated by the performance of Giacomo over the ensuing eleven months.

In fact the original post in the thread says: Seems Giacomo has pretty much proved everything (Beyer) wrote was spot on.

So it seems perfectly fair, if we're going to rate Beyer's assessment on Giacomo by his performance since the Derby, that we also rank comments Beyer made about others by looking at their post-Derby records.

Again, Beyer wrote, "But besides the two favorites, there was no quality in the 20-horse field -- just a bunch of horses who had won slow prep races because somebody had to win them," and that simply has not been borne out in the time since last May.

So I really don't think critics of the original article have to start looking for the best vegetables that go with crow...

[TravisVOX]

Don't we need people in the industry that aren't afraid to speak the truth? If ruffling a few feathers hurts your chance to be part of the establishment, why be a part of it?

You are absolutely right, but my intent in life is to call the races, not necessarily report about them from an analytical and opinionated manner. If I voiced my concern about a certain company taking over racing in a feather-ruffling sort of way, what happens when the track announcing position opens up there and I apply? That's where I hedge a bit... see what I mean?

[cj]

I got you Travis, race calling is different, and that makes sense.

[toetoe]

It's just Beyer's bombast that irritates, that's all. Everyone should question the "best" and "worst," as they're never so good or bad as advertised. Remember Arcaro's refusal to jump aboard the Seattle Slew Bandwagon? It's true that except for the Cormorant race he beat NOTHING in the Triple Crown, but he went on to greater things.
I agree there's WAY too much mouthing of the party line as established by the "pundits." Thank God for Beyer's freethinking ways.