Turfway - Beyer poly figs biased on low side?

[GlenninOhio]

Surgeon General's Warning: I'm a horseman, not a speed/pace handicapper.

That said, there have been a number of occasions since poly was introduced last September where I've been puzzled by Beyer figures that were quite low relative to the typical levels of the horses involved - particularly at the stakes and allowance levels.

A case in point would be Saturday's Battaglia Memorial, won by Laity with an 80 Beyer.

Below is a listing of the Battaglia field, along with details on their best Beyers over their past 3 races.

With this information, plus the expectation for improvement among young 3-year olds at this time of year, I would have thought the winner would have needed to do at least an 85, if not closer to a 90.

I'm not suggesting that this was a particularly talented field, and this may simply have been a slow and unimpressive victory for Laity.

But I wonder if you folks see the result as consistent with the Beyer fig?

Thanks.

1. With a City - 83 - 1-1/16T Crc - N1X - 12/29/05

2. Laity - 83 - 1-1/16 RD - Cradle$200k - 9/5/05

3. Go Bucky Go - 90 - 7f GP - N1X - 2/4/06

4. New Awakening - 70 -1-1/16 TP - N1X - 1/20/06

5. Pair of Kings - 76 - 1mi TP - N1X - 2/19/06

6. Malameeze - 86 - 1 mi TP - WEBN$50k - 2/4/06

7. Warrior Within - 96 - 1 mi TP - WEBN$50k - 2/4/06

8. Readily - 82 - 6f TP - N1X - 1/18/06

9. Skeleton Crew - 87 - 6-1/2f TP - N$Y - 2/10/06

10. Kilimanjaro - 87 - 1 mi SA - N1X - 2/3/06

11. Trailing Twelve - 87 - 1-1/16 Aqu - N1X - 1/16/06

12. Temporary Saint - 79 - 1 mi TP - Md Sp Wt - 12/10/05

Order of finish - 2,5,4,6

[46zilzal]

HINT: final numbers are NOT consistent because, as the LAST CHAPTER of the pace race, the Beyers take into consideration NOTHING that happened before it.

[cj]

HINT: final numbers are NOT consistent because, as the LAST CHAPTER of the pace race, the Beyers take into consideration NOTHING that happened before it.

This isn't really true. Many times, the Beyer is "projected", and it almost always happens in very slow or very fast paced races.

[46zilzal]

This isn't really true. Many times, the Beyer is "projected", and it almost always happens in very slow or very fast paced races.
SUBJECTIVE projection...really accurate, rather than using the actual fractions.

[cj]

SUBJECTIVE projection...really accurate, rather than using the actual fractions.

I wasn't saying I agree with it, but that is what is done.

[46zilzal]

I wasn't saying I agree with it, but that is what is done.

Good and inncurate. I hope they stay that way.

[kenwoodallpromos]

When Beyer sat down with his Jack Daniels to make his initial chart, he charted final times going back several months I believe. And then produced track-to-track adjustments.
I'm waiting to hear how the par numbers and track-to-track adjustments are going to be figured for Turfway and how reliable Beyer thinks his numbers will be when the horse runs on another surface or track.
My prediction is using Beyer numbers will be tougher all around on Polytrack and it will be harder to predict the next projected Beyer number for horses running on Polytrack.
beyer brought out his speed figures at a time when tracks were increasing their finish time results so the speed figures aligned well with that. Now trhe magic bullet for Polytrack may end up being something different.

[cj]

...beyer brought out his speed figures at a time when tracks were increasing their finish time results so the speed figures aligned well with that...

What does this mean?

[kenwoodallpromos]

What does this mean?
This means that decent speed figures and track-to-track comparisons were needed to have an edge on others with a lesser way of calculating speed.
His figures were compatible with the racing industry's encouragement for faster times and faster horses. It coincided with shorter distances in track conditions, "speed" breeding, and lighter weights in the big races of the general time period.
Whether incidental or by design, several circumstances encourage the actual or appearance of increaed speed in thoroughbred racing whether that is the only or major function or not. Not all came into existance during that time period, just some. Run-ups, the uses of whips, DRF and other speed figures, track composition in Ca. probably pre-dated the Beyer speed figures.
My point is, Beyer came up with his figures at the right time period when they were very useful.

[GlenninOhio]

When Beyer sat down with his Jack Daniels to make his initial chart, he charted final times going back several months I believe. And then produced track-to-track adjustments.
I'm waiting to hear how the par numbers and track-to-track adjustments are going to be figured for Turfway and how reliable Beyer thinks his numbers will be when the horse runs on another surface or track.
My prediction is using Beyer numbers will be tougher all around on Polytrack and it will be harder to predict the next projected Beyer number for horses running on Polytrack.
beyer brought out his speed figures at a time when tracks were increasing their finish time results so the speed figures aligned well with that. Now the magic bullet for Polytrack may end up being something different.

I believe two of your points can be paraphrased as:

1. Poly Beyers will be more inconsistent from race to race.

2. Poly Beyers will be very tough to compare to Beyers at other tracks on other surfaces.

Is your final point that poly Beyers are pushing in the opposite direction of faster finish time results, or just that they're creating more inconsistencies?

[kenwoodallpromos]

I did not mean to imply that Polytrack numbers themselves will be inconsistent. Indeed, Glen's figures show that of the first 4 finishers, 1 had the "classiest" route and the other 3 scored their best Beyer at TP. I thought on a surface that has a decent amount of give to it and and is on the slower side, horses that are supposed to do well should be the classy routers and the horses for courses. I see very much consistency with what the assessments have already been on this forum! Beyer may not like it but the better critical thinkers on this forum should do fine!
I think it will tough at first to compare figures alone. GP to Calder it is not real easy to compare figures alone! Those who know only how to read the computer or speed figure analysis may bre lost if they cannot handle other variables like many on this forum have done in the past- the traditional old fashioned full handicapping should be a breeze for most on this forum!
So far, as I understand it, Instead of "pushing in the opposite direction as faster times", I would characterize the character of Polytrack as being much more difficult to manipulate for a harder surfasce (you may consider only the aspect of sealing tracks if you wish, but that is still manipulating the track resulting in faster times).
Since I am a fan of "s" type horses and horses who can run even quarters, I think it will be a blast looking for the horse who can legitimately run the whole distance of the race with enough left in the tank to be there at the wire without running on a teflon track!
My wild speculation tells me that many of the TC and BC Classic champions would do just fine at TP.

[Valuist]

I looked at the chart and I think the number has to be pretty close. There's some evidence that this was not a stellar field. Laity is not a star by any standard; he did win a stake at RD last year, but that's no big deal. The runnerup, Pair of Kings was a big longshot who coudln't win at the NW1X level but he did have experience over the Polytrack. Warrior Within, who earned a big fig in a stake over the track was aided by the fact there was no early speed in his last and he crawled early and drew away late. Malameeze was also near that slow pace. The shipper from New York got hung out real wide on the first turn pressing a fast pace and that cooked him. Kilimanjaro was a big disappointment since he had a fast pace to run at but he also was running w/out race day Bute which he had at SA. There was a lot of speed who was unproven going long in the race, and after seeing Laity seemingly look beaten at the eighth pole, only to see all the others hang, one has to figure this was a weak stake.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I am not trying to argue with you, and this may be a weak stakes field, but my question is, since most of the horses with the biggest Beyer earned them in sprints or at fast pars tracks like GP and SA, and as you said were not used to going long and maybe not used to slower tracks, doesn't this race nonetheless support the claim that horses run best on the kind of track and in the kind of race they are used to? This may be redboarding, but in analyzing post-race, which horses should have been considered contenders?

[GMB@BP]

call me stupid but with beyers article on the uniformity of polytrack, shouldnt the beyers be the most consistent at that track? maybe with this being the first crop of three year olds the pars are still in adjustment.

[Valuist]

Ken-

Thats true but these are 3YO so the majority of them really aren't used to routing yet. At some point the connections have to find out if they can. I just think the connections here can't get Derby fever.....not even Illinois or Ohio Derby fever either.

[classhandicapper]

call me stupid but with beyers article on the uniformity of polytrack, shouldnt the beyers be the most consistent at that track? maybe with this being the first crop of three year olds the pars are still in adjustment.

I think JB made some comments about surface speed changes on polytrack a few months ago, but I can't recall the specifics. I'm sure if you asked him on the TG board he'd be happy to answer that question.

[GlenninOhio]

I looked at the chart and I think the number has to be pretty close. There's some evidence that this was not a stellar field. Laity is not a star by any standard; he did win a stake at RD last year, but that's no big deal. The runnerup, Pair of Kings was a big longshot who coudln't win at the NW1X level but he did have experience over the Polytrack. Warrior Within, who earned a big fig in a stake over the track was aided by the fact there was no early speed in his last and he crawled early and drew away late. Malameeze was also near that slow pace. The shipper from New York got hung out real wide on the first turn pressing a fast pace and that cooked him. Kilimanjaro was a big disappointment since he had a fast pace to run at but he also was running w/out race day Bute which he had at SA. There was a lot of speed who was unproven going long in the race, and after seeing Laity seemingly look beaten at the eighth pole, only to see all the others hang, one has to figure this was a weak stake.

A quibble, perhaps minor.

The stake at River that Laity won last year was the $200K Miller Light Cradle Stakes, which has been back and forth between non-graded and a G-3. I think some pretty decent 3 year-olds have come out of that race at 2. And he won it by 11-3/4 lengths, with the runner-up - Dawn of War - going on to win the G-1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland next out (Laity finished 5th out of 12 in that race after tracking the pace wide).

Also (for my information), how do you know Kilimanjaro ran without his race day bute in the Battaglia?

Thanks.

[GlenninOhio]

I think JB made some comments about surface speed changes on polytrack a few months ago, but I can't recall the specifics. I'm sure if you asked him on the TG board he'd be happy to answer that question.


I'd love to know the answer to that question!

In my opinion, if anything the Beyers for Turfway poly may be the least consistent of the widely followed tracks, and not just for the 3-year olds.

[Valuist]

One other point about the speed figure: it was the only 1 1/16 race of the day at TP and anytime that happens, there's more margin for error.

California allows race day Bute as do other states like Minnesota, Indiana, Iowa. There's a few others but most states either don't allow it on race day or have very low limits. I'm a big believer in betting against horses who's big figs are all on Bute. We couldn't really hold that against Kilimanjaro since he only had a few races; it might be he just didn't care for the Polytrack. But check out some of the TP pps and you'll often see horses who run big numbers at Hoosier and can't duplicate them when they go to Kentucky, Illinois or Ohio.

[Fastracehorse]

HINT: final numbers are NOT consistent because, as the LAST CHAPTER of the pace race, the Beyers take into consideration NOTHING that happened before it.

If a horse gets a low Beyer that doesn't mean that the horse's ability is limited to that low fig.

Further, Beyers are just fairer reflections of ability relative to time.

fffastt

[GlenninOhio]

One other point about the speed figure: it was the only 1 1/16 race of the day at TP and anytime that happens, there's more margin for error.

California allows race day Bute as do other states like Minnesota, Indiana, Iowa. There's a few others but most states either don't allow it on race day or have very low limits. I'm a big believer in betting against horses who's big figs are all on Bute. We couldn't really hold that against Kilimanjaro since he only had a few races; it might be he just didn't care for the Polytrack. But check out some of the TP pps and you'll often see horses who run big numbers at Hoosier and can't duplicate them when they go to Kentucky, Illinois or Ohio.

On race day bute - Thanks for the info. I find this a bit ironic given how Kentucky is consistently scolded by the Stan Bergstein's of the world as an "anything goes" state for race day medications.

On the single race at 1-1/16 miles - Ok, now this will really establish my lack of credentials in the speed handicapping arena so please bear with me. There were four races on that same card that were run at a flat mile. I assume you're not saying that the information from those races was completely ignored in determining the speed figure for the 1-1/16 mile race? If you are, I'm at a loss for how a worthwhile speed figure can be calculated for any race that is at a "singleton" distance on a card.

[Valuist]

I'm sure they based their number heavily on the data in the mile races. I believe in comparing apples to apples, oranges to oranges. The data in the sprint races can be completely irrelevant to what happens in the routes. And while its better to compare the Battaglia races to other routes, you really get more accurate numbers when you compare same distance/same day. Unfortunately there usually isn't a large number of races to work with. Why couldn't they run the Battaglia at 1 mile? Racing secretaries don't have any regard for speed handicappers.

[The Judge]

How is it that 9 horses in a 12 horse field run a slower Beyer then their last race at the same time at the same track in the same race? I don't know the answer but the only thing that I can think of is pace or the track itself. To me pace doesn't cut it so maybe its the track but I don't know

[GlenninOhio]

How is it that 9 horses in a 12 horse field run a slower Beyer then their last race at the same time at the same track in the same race? I don't know the answer but the only thing that I can think of is pace or the track itself. To me pace doesn't cut it so maybe its the track but I don't know

The table on my post that initiated this thread showed each horse's best Beyer over their last 3 races - many of these were achieved in their last race but not all.

But I feel your point is still a valid one, especially when you're talking about young 3 year olds with above average talent that you'd expect, as a group, to be putting up improving numbers.

[The Judge]

I misunderstood but it 's still a puzzlement.

[cj]

For what it is worth, I did figures for the race, and I use the Beyer scale.

I came up with the same 80 for final time. The pace figure, to the 6f call at 1 1/16 miles, was 99, for a 99 - 80 race shape.

That is pretty quick and could explain the dropoff for many of the horses.

[rastajenk]

Glenn, the one thing I'm curious about regarding this thread is how did you know Laity's Beyer at 2:30 in the afternoon the day after the race? Is there a subscription service for Instant Beyers, or do you know who figures them locally?

[GlenninOhio]

Glenn, the one thing I'm curious about regarding this thread is how did you know Laity's Beyer at 2:30 in the afternoon the day after the race? Is there a subscription service for Instant Beyers, or do you know who figures them locally?

If you've purchased any of the products or services at drf.com and they have your credit card on file, you can pull the Beyer for a horse's most recent race for $3.

They claim it takes 48 hours after the race but it's almost always next day. In fact, I just pulled a Beyer at 6:00 this morning for a horse that ran at 10:00 pm last night at Mountaineer.

[Valuist]

This race just won't go away........

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2006/Mar-10-Fri-2006/sports/6290878.html

[GMB@BP]

For what it is worth, I did figures for the race, and I use the Beyer scale.

I came up with the same 80 for final time. The pace figure, to the 6f call at 1 1/16 miles, was 99, for a 99 - 80 race shape.

That is pretty quick and could explain the dropoff for many of the horses.

it also means most of them stink!

[rjacobson]

Has anyone made a set of Pars for the recently ended TP meet?
My dirt TP pars are worthless as all the time adjusted figures are
coming out really slow. Thanks in advance for any help.

Bob

[sjk]

Here's what I'm using:

TRACK DISTANCE 1ST 2ND 3RD 4TH fin TIME
TP 5 FURLONGS 23.07 46.95 53.40 59.70 59.70
TP 5 1/2 FURLONGS 22.75 46.92 59.61 66.29 66.29
TP 6 FURLONGS 22.77 46.67 59.52 72.75 72.75
TP 6 1/2 FURLONGS 23.19 46.83 72.78 79.59 79.59
TP 1 MILE 24.08 48.40 74.19 87.45 101.01
TP 1 1/16 MILES 24.52 48.99 74.50 101.30 108.17
TP 1 1/8 MILES 24.63 49.56 75.03 101.31 114.84

Can't get the formatting right but you get the idea.

[rjacobson]

Thanks for the prompt reply.

Bob