Overlooked Contenders Are The Ticket To Success

[rmania]

Yeah I know this sounds like another thread, but let’s face it, the term “Longshot” is just too broad of a term.

In almost any race you’ll see at least 30% of field sent off as a longshot. And for most, they deserve to be longshots and really don’t have much of a chance to compete.

When a longshot wins it’s easy to go back and find some reason why it won, especially if you can point to a couple angles that look to apply. However, the problem with angles is that you will find them with virtually all longshots even when they deserve the long odds.

The fact is that most longshot winners probably shouldn’t have been a longshot to begin with. They were (for the most part) a logical contender that was just overlooked.

[Overlay]

I'm not sure that most longshot winners could be classified as logical contenders in their races. I think it would be more accurate to say that longshot winners often have a better actual chance of winning than their high odds indicate (even if they don't figure on paper as one of the most likely winners of the race).

[rmania]

I'm not sure that most longshot winners could be classified as logical contenders in their races. I think it would be more accurate to say that longshot winners often have a better actual chance of winning than their high odds indicate (even if they don't figure on paper as one of the most likely winners of the race).
In this context "logical contender" does not equate to "likely winner".

If there was something/anything to suggest that a horse was a "likely winner" then it wouldn't be overlooked.

And of course with longshots, they don't have to win to return a nice profit.

[valueguy]

As a streaky player ,i find i can get back on track by concentrating on the 3 top favorites.Usually in a race card of 10 races you can find a couple that will
give you some value.Going after the long ones all the time can get pretty painful.The best longshot angle i have used is class drop ,early speed .90% of the time everyone picks up on this angle horse but on occasion it is overlooked (usually 2 or more horses have the same angle) If i figure the value
is there i will go for it.

[kitts]

To me contender selection is the most important part of handicapping. I strive to find the winner in my top five at least 80% of the time. Since I hit about 16%, then I need better than 5/1 to profit. Those contenders that have value (paying more than I figured they would) are the secret to any of my successful years. However, I need contenders before I can determine value.

[Pace Cap'n]

The fact is that most longshot winners probably shouldn’t have been a longshot to begin with. They were (for the most part) a logical contender that was just overlooked.

Semantics.

[classhandicapper]

The best longshot angle i have used is class drop ,early speed. 90% of the time everyone picks up on this angle horse but on occasion it is overlooked (usually 2 or more horses have the same angle) If i figure the value
is there i will go for it.

I love that angle.

I think I know at least one key to finding the overlooked ones.

If a horse has a series of speed figures like this; 80, 81, 78 and 65, but the 65 was in a fast paced duel against better horses and today he is dropping in class, the public will bet him off his prior figures.

If a horse has a series of speed figures like this; 80, 79, 65, 68, 64, 67 but the last race was in a fast paced duel against better horses and today he is dropping in class, the public is less likely to pick up on the fact that his last race was much better than it looks and he is actually back in top form because his recent figures were all in the 60s.

There are lots of little angles like that where the horse's ability is hidden and there are no clues around from the other recent races. If the other recent races look good, they'll pick up on it.

[stlseeeek]

i agree

my biggest longshot scores, all should of been 8-10/1 tops, but because they got barried while double jumping classes, people only looked at those races, not when he was running with 5K claimers and winning or running 2 or 3rd.


easiest bet i ever made, was Evangeline a few years ago.


horse won for 4k, jumped 3 times, got barried, drops back to 4K, goes to lead and wins by plenty. Race at Maywood. horse won at bottom level, goes to balmoral faces tougher, loses 4 straight, goes back to maywood and bottom level and is 14/1. wins easy.


i unfortunately don't look enough at this, i am my worst enemy when it comes to handicapping sometimes, i refuse to let the Pp's talk to me. i see what i want to see, not what is there!