TRUE CLASS COMPARAISONS

[Thoropredictor]

we are finding that in order to predict the outcome of a race we often rely on the back class of the horse under consideration. We go and look for data (charts, in the money lines, race types, etc.) and try to get a feel of the horses back class. I believe that we need to have an idea about a horse's talent against a numerical # that represents the talent that he has competed against. This # will come from a database. Again, horses have an inate sense of their competition in a race and get encouraged or discouraged easily.

[cj]

...Again, horses have an inate sense of their competition in a race and get encouraged or discouraged easily.

I hope people keep believing this. They get discouraged when they can't keep up because they aren't fast enough in my opinion, not because of some inate sense.

[shanta]

Who is "we" ??

Richie

[kenwoodallpromos]

Yes some do. I look for those who do not get comments like "flat" "eased" "nothing left".
When picking I look for- Fit horse, a fighter, a fair race, and fortunate trip.
I would suggest that if you limit too much the elimination factors in past races, you may be eliminating some at a price.
As far as $$, 2 wins + up the track= many solid races.
Giacomo got into the KY Derby based on several good finishes, not 1 big 10 length win. In spite of not winning afterwards, he is making the owner solid finish money.

[46zilzal]

Again, horses have an inate sense of their competition in a race and get encouraged or discouraged easily.
I hope LOTS of people continue believing that. Horses RUN... 95% just run..

Akin to saying that cats have disciminating tastes at dinner time. They simply eat.

Time to stop putting human attributes on animals.

Funny, I just read what CJ wrote and I swear I did not copy him

[Thoropredictor]

all handicappers.

[46zilzal]

there are few communities as HETEROGENEOUS in opinion and stance than the handicapping and wagering one. "We" does not encompass many here. The parimutuel game THRIVES on being different.

[headhawg]

Akin to saying that cats have disciminating tastes at dinner time. They simply eat.
Sounds like you've never owned a cat.

[46zilzal]

Sounds like you've never owned a cat.
Jeff, cat 17 since 1963, is sitting right next to me as I type this.

[Thoropredictor]

i am one of many who seek more meaningful and intelligent ways of predicting the outcome of a horse race. When we pool our thoughts and opinions and observations i believe that we move closer to this goal.

[46zilzal]

i am one of many who seek more meaningful and intelligent ways of predicting the outcome of a horse race. When we pool our thoughts and opinions and observations i believe that we move closer to this goal.
GOOD LUCK in that endeavor

[classhandicapper]

Again, horses have an inate sense of their competition in a race and get encouraged or discouraged easily.

It isn't inate as in a social pecking order. IMO, that's a long held myth that most modern classifiers don't pay much attention to.

There are very tangible differences in ability betwen various class levels, many of which are close to impossible to measure. These things often get exposed as horses move up and down the class ladder and race against different levels of competition.

For example: 2 horses could be running equal speed figures, but.....

One might have been chasing and/or setting much a much faster pace.

One might be able to accelerate and run a furlong in 11 while the other is more even paced and can't top 11.2. That could help the quicker one get into position to win or repulse a challenge etc... that the other couldn't duplicate.

One might be slightly quicker out of the gate in the first 25 yards even when they both look equally fast to the 2F point.

One might throw in the towel when outrun for the lead and another might dig in and fight back even when he's tired, outrun and beat. (think of Seatlle Slew in the Gold Cup. Speed figures don't measure his last 70 yards. He came again when totally exhausted. That was something that seperated him)

One might finish 6F in 112 and be totally exhausted at the end and another may not be able to run any faster than that but still have plenty of stamina at the end.

One might not mind being inside, outside or between horses and another might only like to run one way.

One might pull along side another horse of similar ability and tend to hang and another might be the type that digs in when someone challenges.

As you move up the ladder, the horses tend to have greater amounts of these less tangible abilities even when their speed and pace figures look similar.

What you really want to know is exactly how the various classes of competition stack up against each other (at your track and at the ones that ship in often) because it's not very neat and it changes seasonally.

You also want to be able to identify the strong and weak fields within the various class designations.

Unfortunately, I think it has to be somewhat subjective. People have created various numbers etc... to express class and level of competition but I think they fall short of subjective analysis.

[hurrikane]

i am one of many who seek more meaningful and intelligent ways of predicting the outcome of a horse race. When we pool our thoughts and opinions and observations i believe that we move closer to this goal.

that depends on the goal. If your goal is to pick the winner of a race then perhaps a collabrative effort could produce better results. (personally I doubt it)

If your goal is to make money then what you say is exactly opposite of how the parimutual system works.

In my world you are 'the enemy'.

good luck

[Thoropredictor]

What you really want to know is exactly how the various classes of competition stack up against each other (at your track and at the ones that ship in often) because it's not very neat and it changes seasonally.

You also want to be able to identify the strong and weak fields within the various class designations.

Unfortunately, I think it has to be somewhat subjective. People have created various numbers etc... to express class and level of competition but I think they fall short of subjective analysis.


You have made some excellent observations. I follow and agree with most of your points. In today's world of simulcasting, looking for clues thru data we have about a race will never be as valuable as observations of the race. Today we have the ability to review the replay of the race and tie the visual with the data. The ultimate decision of selection will still be our brain. As an owner of horses for a few years i learned that class data can be influenced by many things but the talent of the competition is still the most important factor in this conclusion.

[twindouble]

Classhandicapper;

Here again you show your "Class". The only thing I can add is, while horses move up and down the ladder, we deal with immature to maturity to decline as horses age, those that continue to show their class as older horses are rare indeed, John Henry comes to mind. Some horses, even including ourselves can at given times run back to a prior class level performance but not consistently. That's were current form cycles come into play.



T.D.

[GaryG]

You also want to be able to identify the strong and weak fields within the various class designations.I have a home grown program that quantifies "class within a class" and also compares claimers to allowance races. Although it requires a manual input on a daily dasis it isolates some standout plays that would otherwise be missed and is well worth the time spent. It is one of the fundamentals of my handicapping.

[classhandicapper]

I have a home grown program that quantifies "class within a class" and also compares claimers to allowance races. Although it requires a manual input on a daily dasis it isolates some standout plays that would otherwise be missed and is well worth the time spent. It is one of the fundamentals of my handicapping.

That sounds like a interesting program.

I am class oriented when horses otherwise look very similar on figures. It's tough to find a lot of value that way, but I think it keeps me off a lot of horses that aren't as good as their numbers make them look.

[classhandicapper]

Classhandicapper;

Here again you show your "Class". The only thing I can add is, while horses move up and down the ladder, we deal with immature to maturity to decline as horses age, those that continue to show their class as older horses are rare indeed, John Henry comes to mind. Some horses, even including ourselves can at given times run back to a prior class level performance but not consistently. That's were current form cycles come into play. T.D.

That was a pretty classy post. ;)