temporal handicapping

[46zilzal]

In many fields of endeavor, one has to be open to C-H-A-N-G-E. The way a race ran "on paper" last night may very well have to be changed based upon the reality of the way the track is running TODAY.

Imagine a stockbroker who did not alter his outlook of a day's trading based upon what were the realities of the market when he was set to make that trade versus what he THOUGHT were the realities of the market the night before. That would not be rational, YET many a handicapper keeps no UP TO DATE feedback upon last night's decisions tempered by the CHANGES that the track is offering TODAY.

Without the feedback of what is winning at the moment, how can one be CONFIDENT about yesterday's decisions? Even the most consistent of race courses change dramatically with track maintainence, wholesale scratches, weather etc. and NOT tailoring the wagers to the realities of the track NOW, one would have to be very lucky indeed to have those older decisions work today.

[PaceAdvantage]

Can you give us some examples of how to rate today's track? How many races would you look at before you could come to a valid conclusion that a change has occurred. I once was very into what you advocate, and would appreciate hearing your take on things....

[46zilzal]

Has to do with how WELL or how LITTLE the speed is holding. As the following screen shows, it was holding well at Gulfstream today as this early/late screen shows: the MORE to the right, the more positive, or speed favoring the course is. One might not have considered Corinthian in the Fountain of Youth otherwise.

By carefully following the numbers of the early/late, one can guage what is winning. It helps to decide where to look. I showed this screen previously at Aqueduct. It would usually take about two races to decide, but more often three and this relates to DIRT only.

[46zilzal]

The Stymie Handicap at the big A was favored by the earlier horse Machruian as the early bias was there today too all race card.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Track, shoes, scratches, weird tote odds, AE's getting in, taken off turf; And I am sure more changes to find out about when able to alter betting. At the track there are 40 or more races available times however many types of bets; online of course many more.
I do not feel sorry for anyone who "needs" to have a bet on any certain race. Do not bet or cancel the bet unless you have already considered the race with the change as a "what if" scenario.

[46zilzal]

Once you establish a RANGE for each track and each distance, you can record the winning e/l from each race on the current card to see how that day's racing has shifted:i.e Aqueduct sprints run around +6 to 18. If the higher end wins all day, you go that direction. If horses with -2 are winning, you look for those the race of the card. Gives a great "fingerprint" for today's racing.

[hurrikane]

How are you quantifying early or late?
are you taking into account he rs or the race. a race with no speed obviously does not carry the same weight as a race with all speed.

do you track by dist? trip? anything besides raw numbers.

I am not sure I buy into the daily bias idea. The jury is still out on that for me. I, for one, could not use it in the way I play. so maybe I give up a little there, maybe not. I can use the last 5, 10, 30, 360 days to get a profile of a track. but as for day to day bias or race to race bias...I'm not so sure.

Anyway, just curious how you are quantifying early/late.

thanks.

[46zilzal]

How are you quantifying early or late?
are you taking into account he rs or the race. a race with no speed obviously does not carry the same weight as a race with all speed.

do you track by dist? trip? anything besides raw numbers.

I am not sure I buy into the daily bias idea. The jury is still out on that for me. I, for one, could not use it in the way I play. so maybe I give up a little there, maybe not. I can use the last 5, 10, 30, 360 days to get a profile of a track. but as for day to day bias or race to race bias...I'm not so sure.

Anyway, just curious how you are quantifying early/late.


The numbers compare the difference between 2nd call and final fractions and have NOTHING to do with trips but then I do not use a single one. The ranges are set by Track and then by distance remembering that YOUNGER horses and maidens have more positive numbers than older counterparts. BIAS is real believe me: I did not think it was until these numbers proved it. Bellamy Road's Wood last year was so speed biased I knew he would NOT do well next oout based upon such a ridiculous number from Aqueuduct on the day of the Wood Memorial