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DrugSalvastore
03-04-2006, 08:28 PM
Nice effort from Lava Man.

What an awesome race the Strub has proved to be!!!

winner High Limit gets drowned and is off the board as the heavy favorite.

2nd place horse ran a 12 point new career top in the 17th start of his life in the Strub. Hasn't raced since.

3rd place horse Giacomo ran 5th beaten a mile with no excuse.

4th place horse Greeley's Galexy did manage to dig down late, and pass one fading horse, to finish 5th of 6 in a Golden Gate stake race...while being crushed by the immortal Buzzard's Bay.

It will be fun to see how Brown (from TG) jusifies making the Strub a supersonic fast race...after this. Even Beyer, giving a season's best 111 figure in the Strub, was highly questionable.

Sacred Light, who was the one and only horse who really got cheated by the variant split that day, was 2nd beaten 1 1/2 lengths, with Gryder up, to Brother Derek at 20/1.

These figure makers are very sharp people, but they are human like the rest of us---and they do make mistakes from time-to-time. Maybe they didn't make a mistake with the Strub--but I still have a hard time believing it was by far the year's fastest race. In their defense, I guess neither Brown or Beyer thought Superfly could develop into a Derby upsetter though

RXB
03-04-2006, 10:09 PM
As usual, they showed some of the previous runnings of the Santa Anita Handicap. After you've watched Spectacular Bid make a good horse like Flying Paster look like a fence post (for the fifth or sixth time), it's hard to get enthused about Lava Man hanging on for dear life over a nondescript allowance horse.

The great ones are gone.

Figman
03-04-2006, 10:22 PM
Cold $117.4 exacta for CJ's Figs. Last race the winner LAVA MAN earned a 106 while MAGNUM earned a 104. See the 10th race,
http://www.pacefigures.com/sa_060304C.htm

cj
03-05-2006, 11:16 AM
I said it weeks ago after DrugS rightfully questioned the Strub figures. Beyer, TG, and anyone else giving that race a big figure blew it. It happens, I blow them sometimes to be sure. But it sure pays good when everyone else disagrees with you.

Tom
03-05-2006, 12:28 PM
I think High Limit was doomed by the distance. He is not a 10 furlong horse. Look at all the horses - only three had shown ability at the distance. Two ran 1-2. The winner, the highest back figs showing, the other, a horse on the improve.
I can see the Beyer for the other eace being legit and accept yesterday's results. HL might have been at the wrong distance and bounced off the 114 last out.

I have to say somehting nice about LM - he bought me dinner last night! :kiss:

ratpack
03-05-2006, 05:21 PM
Two Derby winners ran yesterday and both out of the money

46zilzal
03-05-2006, 06:20 PM
just shows how much LUCK plays a factor the first Saturday in May. The Dancer's only loss.

classhandicapper
03-05-2006, 10:31 PM
I said it weeks ago after DrugS rightfully questioned the Strub figures. Beyer, TG, and anyone else giving that race a big figure blew it. It happens, I blow them sometimes to be sure. But it sure pays good when everyone else disagrees with you.

It was a tough day to make figures, but I agreed with you.

I spent a lot of time discussing tha figure on the RAGs board and of course had a healthy win ticket on Lava Man. :cool:

cj
03-06-2006, 11:39 AM
Lava Man was given a 113 Beyer for the Big Cap.

the little guy
03-06-2006, 11:42 AM
Lava Man was given a 113 Beyer for the Big Cap.

And, Beyer admitted you were right, and he's lowered High Limit's Strub fig to an 83.

cj
03-06-2006, 11:44 AM
And, Beyer admitted you were right, and he's lowered High Limit's Strub fig to an 83.

ROFL, good one. I'd guess around a 103 is more like it. Beyer wasn't the only one to give a good number, HL was quite below zero on a different scale.

To be fair, one result doesn't mean he was wrong or right on the day in question, though current evidence hints at wrong.

classhandicapper
03-06-2006, 12:21 PM
Lava Man was given a 113 Beyer for the Big Cap.

That's what I thought was about right. I suppose he gave Brother Derek about a 104 plus or minus a little.

cj
03-06-2006, 12:23 PM
Brother Derek was given a 102.

OTM Al
03-06-2006, 01:43 PM
I can believe that High Limit was given too high a figure for the Strub. Recent history has proved that, but going from a 111 to an 83 seems a little too much of an extreme shift. I have no idea why Giacomo was being touted so much. He's a good horse who runs very consistantly, but he needs a major pace meltdown for him to win a big race. I will admit I did include High Limit on the top of my tri ticket with Lava Man, who was just too logical in that spot. I also put Wilko in 3rd as he is damn good at finishing 3rd. Giacomo was left off completely and I also used Spellbinder and the 1 horse who was increadibly forgettable underneath. 2 out of 3 usually isn't bad unless you're talking tris and P3's :)

the little guy
03-06-2006, 01:53 PM
I was joking.

OTM Al
03-06-2006, 02:02 PM
Ah. In rereading I can see that now. Humor is always difficult on a monday morning :)

Seriously though, Giacomo always runs about a 96 or so, he lost by 5 in the Strub, so a fig of about 102 would probably be a lot more realistic for High Limit.