BRIS BET profit line odds

[Tom]

Anyone pay attention to this?
I never really paid much attention to it, but there it free and all. I thought I might start tracking it for a while and see what happens...unless someone tells me I'm wasting my time.

[Elliott Sidewater]

Tom:

It would not be a waste of time - I tracked it for awhile in late 2004 early 2005 and after 2311 win bets it showed a 7.1% profit, betting any of the first 5 choices who were overlaid to win. Boxing all overlays in the top 5 in the exacta showed a 9.2% profit after 2221 bets. This has got to be a big enough sample to mean something. There were 8 tracks in my sample. Results were very volatile from day to day and card to card, and were generally better at tracks that had fuller fields.

Now that everyone knows this, it probably won't work any more.

Regards,
Elliott Sidewater

[PaceAdvantage]

Now that everyone knows this, it probably won't work any more.

I doubt it...most people don't have the time or patience to bet value off the tote. What you have to worry about are the well financed FEW who DO have the patience and discipline....

[Tom]

That leaves me out...I got no patience and less cash! :eek:

[Overlay]

Now that everyone knows this, it probably won't work any more.

Since overlays by definition win more often than their track odds suggest they should, and since (according to the research cited) the BRIS line appears to be effective in pointing out horses that should be bet if their track odds are higher than the line odds, would it really be possible for the odds line to lose its effectiveness as a result of overbetting on any particular horse? As the odds on that horse went down, the odds on other horses in the race would rise, making them favorable betting propositions.

[ezpace]

A long time jock agent I know uses it to fill out overlay contenders for his TRI/Superfecta wagers.Chicago/KY ciruits fwiw.

[BetHorses!]

Anyone pay attention to this?
I never really paid much attention to it, but there it free and all. I thought I might start tracking it for a while and see what happens...unless someone tells me I'm wasting my time.


I believe its an in-house formula that takes the best 2 out of last 4 races regardless of surface. I do know they assign percentages for every horse and they total 100% but they only display the top 5. Did not know it was free.

[NoDayJob]

That leaves me out...I got no patience and less cash! :eek:

Luv it--- :lol:

[Tom]

I believe its an in-house formula that takes the best 2 out of last 4 races regardless of surface. I do know they assign percentages for every horse and they total 100% but they only display the top 5. Did not know it was free.

It is on the Super Tote at BRISBET - click on "tools"

[Elliott Sidewater]

Overlay:

I can't agree with your statement, if the premise is that there must be value somewhere in every race with parimutuel betting. If the BRISBET overlays get bet down more, it is quite possible that everything in a race will end up with a negative expectation due to the effect of the takeout. And that explains perfectly why people who bet every race without regard to value end up as losers (their expectation begins to approach the negative value of the takeout as the number of plays grows).

In my large sample there were far more losing races and bets than wins, and it was unusual for more than 3 BRISBET overlays to win on a race card. 1 or 2 winners was a far more common result, and zero was not uncommon, either. There were BRISBET overlays in about 90% of the races - so eliminating a few "bad overlay plays" per day, if it could have been done without sacrificing overlay winners, would have raised the profit margin signficantly.

My opinion is that the free PROFIT LINE tool in BRISBET gives rank and file horseplayers what they seem to want - lots of action (fun), some winners at good prices (bragging rights), and a fighting chance to come out ahead in the long run (more bragging rights). And maybe most important of all, they get this without doing any work or thinking on their own. With a tad of imagination, maybe this even surpasses the miracle of buying real estate with no money down.

Respectfully,
Elliott

[BIG RED]

That leaves me out...I got no patience and less cash! :eek:


Tom, you're a better man than me. I have no patience and no cash :)

[ezpace]

Correction I was referring to the Bris product which is $5 per track per day fwiw.

I've just looked at the aforementioned . I don't use.

[Overlay]

I can't agree with your statement, if the premise is that there must be value somewhere in every race with parimutuel betting. If the BRISBET overlays get bet down more, it is quite possible that everything in a race will end up with a negative expectation due to the effect of the takeout. And that explains perfectly why people who bet every race without regard to value end up as losers (their expectation begins to approach the negative value of the takeout as the number of plays grows).

I agree wholeheartedly with your emphasis on betting value. However, if you judge overlays based on a comparison of the toteboard odds with a personal full-field, 100% odds line (to address the effects of the takeout), I can see how it would be theoretically possible for there to be no overlays (if all the horses in the race were roughly equal in your line, and were also bet roughly equally, so that the effects of the takeout would make them all underlays). But from a practical standpoint, I would think that would be the exception rather than the rule. (However, that's not saying that all overlays would be bettable, since they might come at the high end of the odds spectrum.)

[BetHorses!]

It is on the Super Tote at BRISBET - click on "tools"

Thats not bad. I looked it up and to download Profitline odds its $5 a track per day or $10 for unlimited.

[BetHorses!]

Correction I was referring to the Bris product which is $5 per track per day fwiw.

I've just looked at the aforementioned . I don't use.

Looks to me it is the Bris product profitline. Says they made some arrangement.

[rrpic6]

Thats not bad. I looked it up and to download Profitline odds its $5 a track per day or $10 for unlimited.

If you have winticket or brisbet, you can get every track for free. The tools button will take you there. You can format them in different ways. I like to replicate the sheets that are for sale on Bris, by having the horses lined up by profit line rankings. It (the rankings) are usually pretty close to the Prime Power that Bris uses.