Question for Jeff P. or other stat guys

[lansdale]

A handicapping friend recently expounded, in a slightly different form, a bit of racing lore I've heard before in various versions - that if he had the patience to play only claimed horses he could make a fortune. When I asked him to put a number on it he said he believed that he could achieve an ROI of $1.80. Had to laugh at the hyperbole, but I became curious about exactly what this simple angle could produce. Especially since it's such a conventional aspect of handicapping, I assume the results would be negative, but if anyone who has the skills and software is interested in checking this out, I would love to know how wrong (or right?!) my friend is about this. Thanks for any help.

[Tom]

What parameters are you interested in?

Claimed last race?
Days away, distance changes, weight, jockey changes, etc.

[railbird]

I have been kicking that exact angle around for months ,watching recently

claimed horses win within 1 or 2 races after the claim ,some at a good price .

But the key words are patience and disipline. which I lack so I hope you get

your answer concerning R.O.I.

[lansdale]

What parameters are you interested in?

Claimed last race?
Days away, distance changes, weight, jockey changes, etc.

Tom,

He was only talking about 'claimed last race' and didn't add any qualifiers. I know that different tracks have different rules about 'jail' time, so I guess anyone who decides to take a look at this will have to control for that factor. Thanks for your interest.

Cheers,

lansdale

[Jeff P]

Horses claimed in one of their three most recent starts - that info alone won't turn a profit - but I've used it with a fair degree of success in the past as a starting point for creating a profitable spot play or two.

Looking at my Q1 2006 database, here's what I have for all starters broken out by claimed races back.

Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: D:\2006\Q1_2006\pl_profile.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 46891.60 46875.70 46462.10
Bet -62144.00 -62144.00 -62144.00
Gain -15252.40 -15268.30 -15681.90

Wins 3664 7294 10752
Plays 31072 31072 31072
PCT .1179 .2347 .3460

ROI 0.7546 0.7543 0.7477
Avg Mut 12.80 6.43 4.32


By: Claimed Races Back

Claim Races Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 -14561.10 56530.00 0.7424 3185 28265 .1127 0.9556 Not Claimed
1 -346.90 2418.00 0.8565 213 1209 .1762 1.4941 Claimed Last Start
2 -198.70 1748.00 0.8863 150 874 .1716 1.4554 Claimed Two Back
3 -145.70 1448.00 0.8994 116 724 .1602 1.3587 Claimed Three Back


Here's the same query - this time retricted to Claiming Races only - where the win rate and win roi for recently claimed horses seems to be a little more relevant:
Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: D:\2006\Q1_2006\pl_profile.txt)
Class Descriptor: C

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 20293.50 20656.00 20465.20
Bet -26882.00 -26882.00 -26882.00
Gain -6588.50 -6226.00 -6416.80

Wins 1627 3240 4790
Plays 13441 13441 13441
PCT .1210 .2411 .3564

ROI 0.7549 0.7684 0.7613
Avg Mut 12.47 6.38 4.27


By: Claimed Races Back

Claim Races Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 -6313.20 22966.00 0.7251 1273 11483 .1109 0.9158 Not Claimed
1 -146.70 1698.00 0.9136 161 849 .1896 1.5666 Claimed Last Start
2 -96.90 1222.00 0.9207 111 611 .1817 1.5008 Claimed Two Back
3 -31.70 996.00 0.9682 82 498 .1647 1.3603 Claimed Three Back


Here's the same query once more - this time restricted to Maiden Claiming Races:
Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: D:\2006\Q1_2006\pl_profile.txt)
Class Descriptor: M

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 11355.90 10616.00 10273.30
Bet -13734.00 -13734.00 -13734.00
Gain -2378.10 -3118.00 -3460.70

Wins 754 1503 2234
Plays 6867 6867 6867
PCT .1098 .2189 .3253

ROI 0.8268 0.7730 0.7480
Avg Mut 15.06 7.06 4.60


By: Claimed Races Back

Claim Races Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 -2253.70 13314.00 0.8307 719 6657 .1080 0.9837 Not Claimed
1 -29.50 204.00 0.8554 20 102 .1961 1.7858 Claimed Last Start
2 -58.80 118.00 0.5017 6 59 .1017 0.9262 Claimed Two Back
3 -36.10 98.00 0.6316 9 49 .1837 1.6728 Claimed Three Back


Like I said, this information alone won't turn a profit. But if you use it as a starting point, you could be well on your way.

-jp

.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I the first table holds up, maybe tyhe new trainer figures out how the horse can best be trained after several races; At first just does a routine one-size-fits-all training.

[lansdale]

Horses claimed in one of their three most recent starts - that info alone won't turn a profit - but I've used it with a fair degree of success in the past as a starting point for creating a profitable spot play or two.

Looking at my Q1 2006 database, here's what I have for all starters broken out by claimed races back.

Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: D:\2006\Q1_2006\pl_profile.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 46891.60 46875.70 46462.10
Bet -62144.00 -62144.00 -62144.00
Gain -15252.40 -15268.30 -15681.90

Wins 3664 7294 10752
Plays 31072 31072 31072
PCT .1179 .2347 .3460

ROI 0.7546 0.7543 0.7477
Avg Mut 12.80 6.43 4.32


By: Claimed Races Back

Claim Races Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 -14561.10 56530.00 0.7424 3185 28265 .1127 0.9556 Not Claimed
1 -346.90 2418.00 0.8565 213 1209 .1762 1.4941 Claimed Last Start
2 -198.70 1748.00 0.8863 150 874 .1716 1.4554 Claimed Two Back
3 -145.70 1448.00 0.8994 116 724 .1602 1.3587 Claimed Three Back


Here's the same query - this time retricted to Claiming Races only - where the win rate and win roi for recently claimed horses seems to be a little more relevant:
Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: D:\2006\Q1_2006\pl_profile.txt)
Class Descriptor: C

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 20293.50 20656.00 20465.20
Bet -26882.00 -26882.00 -26882.00
Gain -6588.50 -6226.00 -6416.80

Wins 1627 3240 4790
Plays 13441 13441 13441
PCT .1210 .2411 .3564

ROI 0.7549 0.7684 0.7613
Avg Mut 12.47 6.38 4.27


By: Claimed Races Back

Claim Races Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 -6313.20 22966.00 0.7251 1273 11483 .1109 0.9158 Not Claimed
1 -146.70 1698.00 0.9136 161 849 .1896 1.5666 Claimed Last Start
2 -96.90 1222.00 0.9207 111 611 .1817 1.5008 Claimed Two Back
3 -31.70 996.00 0.9682 82 498 .1647 1.3603 Claimed Three Back


Here's the same query once more - this time restricted to Maiden Claiming Races:
Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999
Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*) (From Index File: D:\2006\Q1_2006\pl_profile.txt)
Class Descriptor: M

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 11355.90 10616.00 10273.30
Bet -13734.00 -13734.00 -13734.00
Gain -2378.10 -3118.00 -3460.70

Wins 754 1503 2234
Plays 6867 6867 6867
PCT .1098 .2189 .3253

ROI 0.8268 0.7730 0.7480
Avg Mut 15.06 7.06 4.60


By: Claimed Races Back

Claim Races Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 -2253.70 13314.00 0.8307 719 6657 .1080 0.9837 Not Claimed
1 -29.50 204.00 0.8554 20 102 .1961 1.7858 Claimed Last Start
2 -58.80 118.00 0.5017 6 59 .1017 0.9262 Claimed Two Back
3 -36.10 98.00 0.6316 9 49 .1837 1.6728 Claimed Three Back


Like I said, this information alone won't turn a profit. But if you use it as a starting point, you could be well on your way.

-jp

.

Jeff,

Much thanks for these detailed queries. As you say, possibly using one or more filters, this angle could become profitable. If this is a sample of what your program can do, I'm impressed. For now, I'm content with the software I'm using, but I'll definitely mention it to a few people I know who might be interested - especially the friend I mentioned in my initial post. Thanks again.

Cheers,

lansdale

[Niko]

This is a good example of an angle to work off. Look at the results for claiming races. Substantially beats track take, a good starting point to combine with one or two other factors for those interested in playing angles. These are the types of angles beginners-intermediates should look at. (But I hope they don't!) Then again it's been out there a while and still catches prices.

If you spend your time on angles or factors that don't beat the track take by much you're really up against it.

[bettheoverlay]

I have a friend who has used this angle for years. He requires a 17% trainer, a 10% jockey, horse comes back in 30 days, must go up in class. I have seen him get some big prices with this, especially if the horse did not run well in the claimed race.

[Valuist]

I think you can fine tune this angle a bit; first, if connections decide to claim back a horse they previously had lost, its a definite positive sign. Secondly, we had a thread not too long ago about horses getting claimed in races they won. I'd stay away from the majority of those, unless its a definite positive barn switch. You have to figure if the horse won, the previous trainer had the horse "figured out", and a change to a new trainer could, at best, keep the status quo, but more likely would result in some fall off.

[kid4rilla]

Jeff,

I'm also curious on how the multiple claimed horses were handled in your findings. A horse that was claimed last out and two back is included in both the 1 race back and 2 race back claimed groups?

[Jeff P]

I'm also curious on how the multiple claimed horses were handled in your findings. In the table that I posted I made no distinction at all for horses claimed multiple times from their last three starts. The table that I posted is simply this: If a horse was claimed out of its 3rd start back, it gets listed on the line designated "Claimed Three Back" - if If a horse was claimed out of its 2nd start back, it gets listed on the line for "Claimed Two Back" - and if it was claimed out of its most recent start, it gets listed on the line designated as "Claimed Last Start."


A horse that was claimed last out and two back is included in both the 1 race back and 2 race back claimed groups?Exactly. The table that I posted shows such horses in both groups.

-jp

.

[kid4rilla]

Thanks for clarifying, Jeff.