PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING

[karlskorner]

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=3602

Sometimes it works to follow the breeding and trainer.

[GaryG]

IMHO Tim Holland is the sharpest of the writers for brisnet. His articles are well researched and accurate. I believe he is an occasional poster on this board.

[jotb]

Hello:

"However, closer examination reveals that Mott actually owns a good win rate when he sends out runners over a mile or more, on the turf, for their first effort."

This maybe true but if you follow this angle there is a ROI -0.78 This stat is from a sample of 218 races. There were 39 wins accumulated for 18%.

"Graham Motion has had a relatively quiet Gulfstream, winning just two races from nearly 30 starts. However, one of his winners, the promising colt Loconia (Rahy), was, for pedigree and trainer angle players, quite easy to find on January 25 and offered rewarding odds of nearly 10-1. By top turf sire Rahy and out of the Danzig mare Freedom of Speech, Loconia is a full-brother to last year's National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame S.(G2) winner T.D. Vance, and Motion owns good win rates for lay-off winners (23 percent) and first time on the turf ( 20 percent).

Here I'm showing 95 starts first time on the turf with 12 wins for a ROI -0.75. Motion had 543 off the layoff with 112 winners but the ROI is -0.19.

Joe