Basic Handicapping - Joe Takach

[karlskorner]

http://www.winsports.com/ATM/Atmfeat/jt/immutable.htm

"The immutable laws of handicapping" Joe Takach

From a man that has been "out there" for 40 years. You will learn more about basic handicapping than most books you have read.

Print it out (40 pages) read it and re-read it. Also read some of his articles on the side bar.

Karl

[Dave Schwartz]

KK,

Do you need to be a paid subscriber to view it all?

Dave

[karlskorner]

Dave;

All 40 pages are on the site. Really should be printed out, to much to read at one sitting. A lot of it is what I have been "carrying on" about for the last 1 1/2 years

Karl

[Dave Schwartz]

Karl,

Thank you for your effort. Perhaps I am missing it, but all I seem to be able to get to is the current one. Could you provide a navigation hint?

Dave

[rrbauer]

Dave,
Try "right-clicking" on the page and selecting print from that.

Rich

[JustMissed]

Excellant recommendation.

I got turned onto Joe just the other day from reading another thread on this board. I read most of his stuff that's posted at icapper.com.

The thing I like about Joe's writing is it seems to tie all the other handicapping together where it makes sense. I have studied quite a bit about pace handicapping, which I really like and use, but I know enough to know that you had also better consider speed, class, form, trainer intent, trips, bar shoes and whether the old nag is walking wide or walking short.

If you read enough material of Joe and guy's like Joe, you soon realize that they don't discount any angle or any type of handicapping and they do consider everything. (Just between you and me, I think the really good horse players have secret profiles stored in their mental computers so they know what works and what doesn't work for each races, at every distance at whatever track their playing, on whatever condition).

JustMissed



:)

[Dave Schwartz]

Dick,

apparently there are many in the series... I only see the one. It is the others that I am trying to find.

Dave

[BillW]

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
Dick,

apparently there are many in the series... I only see the one. It is the others that I am trying to find.

Dave

Dave,

It looks like at least parts 6 - 22 are strung together on this page. ( can't tell about parts 1-5. At the end it says "part 23 coming ... " so I assume it's not there. They really need to improve their editorial staff) Karl is right ... it is Looooong.

[GameTheory]

http://www.icapper.com/articles_main.html

http://www.webcom.com/~alauck/schtw/navframe.html

http://www.itsdata.com/Free_Articles/takach.html

http://www.gambleinparadise.com/jt.html


You can also find Joe in So Cal hanging around the paddock before every race!

[Derek2U]

Is Joe Takach considered a Good Capper? I'm sure horse body
language is important, but I think you can get by without it.

[cj]

The articles aren't bad, but could he please limit the BOLD, ITALICIZING, and UNDERLINING...kind of loses the effect when half of the text is highlighted!

CJ

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by Derek2U
Is Joe Takach considered a Good Capper? I'm sure horse body
language is important, but I think you can get by without it.

I've seen people who would tell you that you could survive without PPs if you had complete physicality access. IMHO, you can win without it, but it sure is a huge bonus if you have it.

I watched a newbie pick QH tri's one right after another one night just by looking for the horses with the big butts.

[rrbauer]

Joe used to hang out and hold court adjacent to the paddock at Philly Park. In those days his schtick was that you needed to know which trainers were using drugs to be a winner.

I think that some of the visualization techniques that he suggests are good. I have had some success by adding to my trip notes info about how a horse galloped out; and, how they look when coming back to be unsaddled.

His presentation style reminds me of the guy, who when you asked for the time, began by telling you how the watch worked!

The concept that he advances about doing track-based pedigree stats could use some additional statistical massaging....such as, the number of starts to go along with the number of wins so an impact value could be determined. Also, separating sprints/routes would be useful, particularly if the idea is to infer something about a 1st-timer's ability, since the great majority start in sprints.
And, when comparing wins at Del Mar to wins at Hollywood and Santa Anita, without compensating for the number of racing days (Del Mar 43 days; the others twice that) there's bound to be a distortion.

Anyway, Joe has plenty of street and track smarts and plenty to say.

[Rick]

Karl,

Excellent information that we can all benefit from. As I posted on another thread, I think you're covering all of the ways of beating the game which is why I think you're doing way better that what everyone thinks is the maximum performance for a handicapper.

[so.cal.fan]

The specific track breeding he uses is interesting.
He maintains that each turf course and each main track has certain sires and dams who do better than others.
I happen to know this to be true, since I have been using the concept since the 1960's.
I know Joe, he is in the paddock everyday at Santa Anita, Hollywood and Del Mar.
He works hard.
Physicallity is an important part of handicapping winners that is pretty much ignored by the masses........so............I hate to use the overused word.....VALUE.....but it fits here.

[cj]

SoCal,

I would imagine the Value today is even greater now than in the past due to the fact that the majority of wagering dollars come from off track.

CJ

[smf]

d2u,

I don't personally know if Takach is successful at handicapping but it wouldn't come as a surprise.

A few yrs ago I dated a lady that grew up in Indiana and Kentucky and had been around horses since she was very young. Always had horses of her own when she was a young girl and she loved racing but didn't really care much for "gambling" on them.

Our 2nd date was a trip to Lone Star. She knew absolutely zilch about wagering but plenty about horses and their body language. She'd ask me to place a bet for her horse "to come in no worse than 3rd" and she cashed those tix at least 8 times a day, sometimes the runners form on paper was so hideous I almost didn't make the bet.

I took her to LS about 6 or 7 times and learned more from her about equine attitudes/ body language than any tapes or articles I've read. Not knocking any writer, that's just truth.

As far as horses not 'tracking' goes, I'd be careful not to discount these horses in claiming races whose hooves don't cover their tracks in the walking ring. In 2000 I passed on 2 great claim plays I waited on b/c I saw the horse wasn't tracking well. One was Cole Norman's SIMPS and pd about $9 and I had the line at 6-5. I didn't bet it, and remembered Linda said to watch horses that don't track well in warm-ups. Sometimes they're just plain sore or stiff and need to stretch out a little, and then they're fine.

[karlskorner]

smf;

To quote yours from above "she cashed those tixs at least "8 TIMES" a day", hard to believe, especially when you and your friend GR1 questioned my statement that 4 to 6 tickets can be cashed on a daily basis, doing the same thing. Amazing woman, must be from Venus. Absolutely amazing.

Karl

[cj]

Karl,

In fairness to smf, a decent handicapper could cash 8 SHOW tix per day. I do see your point though! ;)

CJ

[karlskorner]

cjmilkowski;

Remember this lady could produce 8 show tickets without benefit of DRF, computer, data bases, warmups, knolwledge of trainer/jockey/owner, etc. etc. just by looking at the horses rump.

Yet he and his friend GR1 invited me to do the TEXAS 2 step (talk the talk, walk the walk) and post my selections prior to being at the track. I guess there is two sides to every coin in Texas.

Karl

[Rick]

You gotta love that anecdotal evidence. I once worked with guy who swore that his friend always won at the slots. I also knew someone who believed that wrestling isn't fixed.

[cj]

I also knew someone who believed that wrestling isn't fixed.

What? You are teasing, right? :D

CJ

[smf]

Karl,

Glad that it was you that recussitated this old beaten topic, and not me...

You stated that you cashed 4 or 6 WIN bets in the same day, every day, karl. The lady I'm speaking of bet to show. BIG difference, podnah.

As far as me questioning your statements of cashing 4 to 6 WIN bets per day, if you go back and read that thread correctly for a change, I didn't question if you actually did cash. In fact I stated I could care less what you do. The fact that you're a redboard machine is what bothers me.

Now that you've backed down from Keilan, GR1 and others request to provide any proof of your claims, I have to admit that I now have my doubts.

[smf]

Originally posted by karlskorner
cjmilkowski;

Remember this lady could produce 8 show tickets without benefit of DRF, computer, data bases, warmups, knolwledge of trainer/jockey/owner, etc. etc. just by looking at the horses rump.


Karl

Dear inattentive karl,

In this very thread I mentioned that she gave opinions and advice on warmups. Yet for some reason you post above she didn't.

Tanda was correct about you. You have trouble at times understanding what's posted, and then knee jerk a reaction.

I hope your ballots are easier to read this year, karl. Have a nice one.

[Tom]

Originally posted by Rick
I also knew someone who believed that wrestling isn't fixed.

Huh? What'chu talkin'bout???

[karlskorner]

smf;

I didn't mind when you and your friend GR1 called me a chest thumper, internet personality etc., even Tanda believes I am ignorant in English, but when your race track buddy GR1 said I was full of chit (his word, pronouced sheet in Texas) I think your post that a complete neophyte to racing, could walk into a track and produce 8 winning show tickects. sort of proves that he is wrong, as your friend who now and forever more shall be known as Rump Lady Linda was able to do. Did she tell you who was going to win before she got to the track, no, did she go to the paddock and tell you who would be a show bet, yes.

IMO you should have never thrown Rump Lady Linda aside, had you kept her you might be living in the big house " up on the hill". But than again very few men would marry a lady who can produce 8 winning show tickets in 1 day, makes her a better handicapper.

Karl

[smf]

Dear Redboardandconfused,

Once again karl, you don't fully understand what the hell you read.

She's wasn't new to racing. Where did I post she was a newbie to thoroughbred racing? (I'd like you to answer this one, redboardguy).

She hadn't bet on a horse since 1986 before I dated her (1999) and didn't understand the process and doesn't care to learn. It's not a big deal to her. I've told GR1 and Ridersup about this lady before and her background w/ horses, and her knowledge of the breeding industry (as it was 15 years ago). She was a groom at Churchill Downs in 1986 before her Senior year @ UK. She loved (still does) horses, that's why she worked for near nothing before getting her degree.

You're a piece of (confused) work, redboardkorner.

[smf]

redboardcorner,

I posted this in the 2nd paragraph in my original post. Notice the "***" to underscore the message (wanted to make it easy for you).
----------------------------------------------------------------
" A few yrs ago I dated a lady that grew up in Indiana and Kentucky and had been around horses since she was very young. Always had horses of her own when she was a young girl and ****she loved racing**** but didn't really care much for "gambling" on them. "
----------------------------------------------------------------------

She was into racing (fan) for years. How can you make a statement like this below? She's no newbie. Please answer.




Originally posted by karlskorner
smf;

I think your post that a complete neophyte to racing, could walk into a track and produce 8 winning show tickects. (SNIP)
Karl

[GR1@HTR]

Yo,

Mr. Kkorner aka (Mr. Play every race on the card, Never read a horse racing book, double my money on every red board post…)Give it a break. You need to go back and do what you do best and find us another internet article to post for us. Fetch please…

[PaceAdvantage]

Since there is really no point to this all, and since this is another note that has gone seriously off the original topic (JOE TAKACH), I'm closing this puppy....

Perhaps this debate (between Karl, Gr1 and SMF) could be best settled via e-mail???